How well do concentric radii approximate population exposure to volcanic hazards?

Effective risk management requires accurate assessment of population exposure to volcanic hazards. Assessment of this exposure at the large-scale has often relied on circular footprints of various sizes around a volcano to simplify challenges associated with estimating the directionality and distribution of the intensity of volcanic hazards. However, to date, exposure values obtained from circular footprints have never been compared with modelled hazard footprints. Here, we compare hazard and population exposure estimates calculated from concentric radii of 10, 30 and 100 km with those calculated from the simulation of dome- and column-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), large clasts, and tephra fall across Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3, 4 and 5 scenarios for 40 volcanoes in Indonesia and the Philippines. We found that a 10 km radius-considered by previous studies to capture hazard footprints and populations exposed for VEI ≤ 3 eruptions-generally overestimates the extent for most simulated hazards, except for column collapse PDCs. A 30 km radius - considered representative of life-threatening VEI ≤ 4 hazards-overestimates the extent of PDCs and large clasts but underestimates the extent of tephra fall. A 100 km radius encapsulates most simulated life-threatening hazards, although there are exceptions for certain combinations of scenario, source parameters, and volcano. In general, we observed a positive correlation between radii- and model-derived population exposure estimates in southeast Asia for all hazards except dome collapse PDC, which is very dependent upon topography. This study shows, for the first time, how and why concentric radii under- or over-estimate hazard extent and population exposure, providing a benchmark for interpreting radii-derived hazard and exposure estimates. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-023-01686-5.

Evaluation of DNA damage and stress in wildlife chronically exposed to low-dose, low-dose rate radiation from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

The health effects associated with chronic low-dose, low-dose rate (LD-LDR) exposures to environmental radiation are uncertain. All dose-effect studies conducted outside controlled laboratory conditions are challenged by inherent complexities of ecological systems and difficulties quantifying dose to free-ranging organisms in natural environments. Consequently, the effects of chronic LD-LDR radiation exposures on wildlife health remain poorly understood and much debated. Here, samples from wild boar (Sus scrofa leucomystax) and rat snakes (Elaphe spp.) were collected between 2016 and 2018 across a gradient of radiation exposures in Fukushima, Japan. In vivo biomarkers of DNA damage and stress were evaluated as a function of multiple measurements of radiation dose. Specifically, we assessed frequencies of dicentric chromosomes (Telomere-Centromere Fluorescence in situ Hybridization: TC-FISH), telomere length (Telo-FISH, qPCR), and cortisol hormone levels (Enzyme Immunoassay: EIA) in wild boar, and telomere length (qPCR) in snakes. These biological parameters were then correlated to robust calculations of radiation dose rate at the time of capture and plausible upper bound lifetime dose, both of which incorporated internal and external dose. No significant relationships were observed between dicentric chromosome frequencies or telomere length and dose rate at capture or lifetime dose (p value range: 0.20-0.97). Radiation exposure significantly associated only with cortisol, where lower concentrations were associated with higher dose rates (r2 = 0.58; p < 0.0001), a relationship that was likely due to other (unmeasured) factors. Our results suggest that wild boar and snakes chronically exposed to LD-LDR radiation sufficient to prohibit human occupancy were not experiencing significant adverse health effects as assessed by biomarkers of DNA damage and stress.

Characterization of vapor phase mercury released from concrete processing with baghouse filter dust added cement.

The fate of mercury (Hg) in cement processing and products has drawn intense attention due to its contribution to the ambient emission inventory. Feeding Hg-loaded coal fly ash to the cement kiln introduces additional Hg into the kiln's baghouse filter dust (BFD), and the practice of replacing 5% of cement with the Hg-loaded BFD by cement plants has recently raised environmental and occupational health concerns. The objective of this study was to determine Hg concentration and speciation in BFD as well as to investigate the release of vapor phase Hg from storing and processing BFD-added cement. The results showed that Hg content in the BFD from different seasons ranged from 0.91-1.44 mg/kg (ppm), with 62-73% as soluble inorganic Hg, while Hg in the other concrete constituents were 1-3 orders of magnitude lower than the BFD. Up to 21% of Hg loss was observed in the time-series study while storing the BFD in the open environment by the end of the seventh day. Real-time monitoring in the bench system indicated that high temperature and moisture can facilitate Hg release at the early stage. Ontario Hydro (OH) traps showed that total Hg emission from BFD is dictated by the air exchange surface area. In the bench simulation of concrete processing, only 0.4-0.5% of Hg escaped from mixing and curing BFD-added cement. A follow-up headspace study did not detect Hg release in the following 7 days. In summary, replacing 5% of cement with the BFD investigated in this study has minimal occupational health concerns for concrete workers, and proper storing and mixing of BFD with cement can minimize Hg emission burden for the cement plant.