Methodological biases in observational hospital studies of COVID-19 treatment effectiveness: pitfalls and potential.

Introduction: This study aims to discuss and assess the impact of three prevalent methodological biases: competing risks, immortal-time bias, and confounding bias in real-world observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness. We use a demonstrative observational data example of COVID-19 patients to assess the impact of these biases and propose potential solutions. Methods: We describe competing risks, immortal-time bias, and time-fixed confounding bias by evaluating treatment effectiveness in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. For our demonstrative analysis, we use observational data from the registry of patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the Bellvitge University Hospital in Spain from March 2020 to February 2021 and met our predefined inclusion criteria. We compare estimates of a single-dose, time-dependent treatment with the standard of care. We analyze the treatment effectiveness using common statistical approaches, either by ignoring or only partially accounting for the methodological biases. To address these challenges, we emulate a target trial through the clone-censor-weight approach. Results: Overlooking competing risk bias and employing the naïve Kaplan-Meier estimator led to increased in-hospital death probabilities in patients with COVID-19. Specifically, in the treatment effectiveness analysis, the Kaplan-Meier estimator resulted in an in-hospital mortality of 45.6% for treated patients and 59.0% for untreated patients. In contrast, employing an emulated trial framework with the weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator, we observed that in-hospital death probabilities were reduced to 27.9% in the "X"-treated arm and 40.1% in the non-"X"-treated arm. Immortal-time bias led to an underestimated hazard ratio of treatment. Conclusion: Overlooking competing risks, immortal-time bias, and confounding bias leads to shifted estimates of treatment effects. Applying the naïve Kaplan-Meier method resulted in the most biased results and overestimated probabilities for the primary outcome in analyses of hospital data from COVID-19 patients. This overestimation could mislead clinical decision-making. Both immortal-time bias and confounding bias must be addressed in assessments of treatment effectiveness. The trial emulation framework offers a potential solution to address all three methodological biases.

Postoperative Staphylococcus aureus Infections in Patients With and Without Preoperative Colonization.

Importance: Staphylococcus aureus surgical site infections (SSIs) and bloodstream infections (BSIs) are important complications of surgical procedures for which prevention remains suboptimal. Contemporary data on the incidence of and etiologic factors for these infections are needed to support the development of improved preventive strategies. Objectives: To assess the occurrence of postoperative S aureus SSIs and BSIs and quantify its association with patient-related and contextual factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter cohort study assessed surgical patients at 33 hospitals in 10 European countries who were recruited between December 16, 2016, and September 30, 2019 (follow-up through December 30, 2019). Enrolled patients were actively followed up for up to 90 days after surgery to assess the occurrence of S aureus SSIs and BSIs. Data analysis was performed between November 20, 2020, and April 21, 2022. All patients were 18 years or older and had undergone 11 different types of surgical procedures. They were screened for S aureus colonization in the nose, throat, and perineum within 30 days before surgery (source population). Both S aureus carriers and noncarriers were subsequently enrolled in a 2:1 ratio. Exposure: Preoperative S aureus colonization. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was cumulative incidence of S aureus SSIs and BSIs estimated for the source population, using weighted incidence calculation. The independent association of candidate variables was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: In total, 5004 patients (median [IQR] age, 66 [56-72] years; 2510 [50.2%] female) were enrolled in the study cohort; 3369 (67.3%) were S aureus carriers. One hundred patients developed S aureus SSIs or BSIs within 90 days after surgery. The weighted cumulative incidence of S aureus SSIs or BSIs was 2.55% (95% CI, 2.05%-3.12%) for carriers and 0.52% (95% CI, 0.22%-0.91%) for noncarriers. Preoperative S aureus colonization (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 4.38; 95% CI, 2.19-8.76), having nonremovable implants (AHR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.15-3.49), undergoing mastectomy (AHR, 5.13; 95% CI, 1.87-14.08) or neurosurgery (AHR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.09-5.61) (compared with orthopedic surgery), and body mass index (AHR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08 per unit increase) were independently associated with S aureus SSIs and BSIs. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of surgical patients, S aureus carriage was associated with an increased risk of developing S aureus SSIs and BSIs. Both modifiable and nonmodifiable etiologic factors were associated with this risk and should be addressed in those at increased S aureus SSI and BSI risk.

Target trial emulation with multi-state model analysis to assess treatment effectiveness using clinical COVID-19 data.

BACKGROUND: Real-world observational data are an important source of evidence on the treatment effectiveness for patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness based on longitudinal data are often prone to methodological biases such as immortal time bias, confounding bias, and competing risks. METHODS: For exemplary target trial emulation, we used a cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (n = 501) in a single centre. We described the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of a single-dose treatment, emulated a trial using real-world data, and drafted a hypothetical study protocol describing the main components. To avoid immortal time and time-fixed confounding biases, we applied the clone-censor-weight technique. We set a 5-day grace period as a period of time when treatment could be initiated. We used the inverse probability of censoring weights to account for the selection bias introduced by artificial censoring. To estimate the treatment effects, we took the multi-state model approach. We considered a multi-state model with five states. The primary endpoint was defined as clinical severity status, assessed by a 5-point ordinal scale on day 30. Differences between the treatment group and standard of care treatment group were calculated using a proportional odds model and shown as odds ratios. Additionally, the weighted cause-specific hazards and transition probabilities for each treatment arm were presented. RESULTS: Our study demonstrates that trial emulation with a multi-state model analysis is a suitable approach to address observational data limitations, evaluate treatment effects on clinically heterogeneous in-hospital death and discharge alive endpoints, and consider the intermediate state of admission to ICU. The multi-state model analysis allows us to summarize results using stacked probability plots that make it easier to interpret results. CONCLUSIONS: Extending the emulated target trial approach to multi-state model analysis complements treatment effectiveness analysis by gaining information on competing events. Combining two methodologies offers an option to address immortal time bias, confounding bias, and competing risk events. This methodological approach can provide additional insight for decision-making, particularly when data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are unavailable.

Concurrent analysis of hospital stay durations and mortality of emerging severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants using real-time electronic health record data at a large German university hospital.

Multistate methodology proves effective in analyzing hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with emerging variants in real time. An analysis of 2,548 admissions in Freiburg, Germany, showed reduced severity over time in terms of shorter hospital stays and higher discharge rates when comparing more recent phases with earlier phases of the pandemic.

Target Trial Emulation Using Hospital-Based Observational Data: Demonstration and Application in COVID-19.

Methodological biases are common in observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness. The objective of this study is to emulate a target trial in a competing risks setting using hospital-based observational data. We extend established methodology accounting for immortal time bias and time-fixed confounding biases to a setting where no survival information beyond hospital discharge is available: a condition common to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) research data. This exemplary study includes a cohort of 618 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We describe methodological opportunities and challenges that cannot be overcome applying traditional statistical methods. We demonstrate the practical implementation of this trial emulation approach via clone-censor-weight techniques. We undertake a competing risk analysis, reporting the cause-specific cumulative hazards and cumulative incidence probabilities. Our analysis demonstrates that a target trial emulation framework can be extended to account for competing risks in COVID-19 hospital studies. In our analysis, we avoid immortal time bias, time-fixed confounding bias, and competing risks bias simultaneously. Choosing the length of the grace period is justified from a clinical perspective and has an important advantage in ensuring reliable results. This extended trial emulation with the competing risk analysis enables an unbiased estimation of treatment effects, along with the ability to interpret the effectiveness of treatment on all clinically important outcomes.

Fatigue and Fracture Resistance Testing of Polyether Ether Ketone (PEEK) Implant Abutments in an Ex Vivo Chewing Simulator Model.

Polyether ether ketone (PEEK) has been introduced into implant dentistry as a viable alternative to current implant abutment materials. However, data on its physico-mechanical properties are still scarce. The present study sought to shed light on this topic utilizing an ex vivo chewing simulator model. A total of 48 titanium two-piece implants were allocated into three groups (n = 16 per group): (1) implants with PEEK abutments and an internal butt-joint connection (PBJ), (2) implants with PEEK abutments and an internal conical implant-abutment connection (PC), and (3) implants with zirconia abutments and an internal butt-joint connection (ZA). All abutments were restored with a non-precious metal alloy crown mimicking the upper right central incisor. A dynamic chewing simulation of half (n = 8) of the specimens per group was performed with 5 × 106 cycles and a load of 49 N at a frequency of 1.7 Hz with thermocycling between 5 and 55 °C. The other eight specimens served as unloaded controls. Surface roughness, implant-abutment connection microgaps (IACMs), and the titanium base-abutment interface microgaps (TAIMs) in the loaded groups were evaluated. Finally, a quasi-static loading test was performed in a universal testing machine with all samples to evaluate fracture resistance. Overall, 23 samples survived the artificial chewing process. One abutment screw fracture was observed in the PC group. The ZA group showed higher surface roughness values than PEEK abutments. Furthermore, ZA revealed lower TAIM values compared to PEEK abutments. Similarly, ZA was associated with lower IACM values compared to PBJ. Fracture loads/bending moments were 1018 N/704 N cm for PBJ, 966 N/676 N cm for PC, and 738 N/508 N cm for ZA, with no significant differences compared to the unloaded references. Artificial loading did not significantly affect fracture resistance of the examined materials. PEEK abutments were associated with better load-bearing properties than zirconia abutments, although they showed higher microgap values. PEEK abutments could, therefore, be feasible alternatives to zirconia abutments based on the present ex vivo findings resembling 20 years of clinical service.

Inverse Probability Weighting Enhances Absolute Risk Estimation in Three Common Study Designs of Nosocomial Infections.

Purpose: When studying nosocomial infections, resource-efficient sampling designs such as nested case-control, case-cohort, and point prevalence studies are preferred. However, standard analyses of these study designs can introduce selection bias, especially when interested in absolute rates and risks. Moreover, nosocomial infection studies are often subject to competing risks. We aim to demonstrate in this tutorial how to address these challenges for all three study designs using simple weighting techniques. Patients and Methods: We discuss the study designs and explain how inverse probability weights (IPW) are applied to obtain unbiased hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios and cumulative incidences. We illustrate these methods in a multi-state framework using a dataset from a nosocomial infections study (n = 2286) in Moscow, Russia. Results: Including IPW in the analysis corrects the unweighted naïve analyses and enables the estimation of absolute risks. Resulting estimates are close to the full cohort estimates using substantially smaller numbers of patients. Conclusion: IPW is a powerful tool to account for the unequal selection of controls in case-cohort, nested case-control and point prevalence studies. Findings can be generalized to the full population and absolute risks can be estimated. When applied to a multi-state model, competing risks are also taken into account.

Predicting Potential Prevention Effects on Hospital Burden of Nosocomial Infections: A Multistate Modeling Approach.

OBJECTIVES: Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) place a substantial burden on health systems. Tools are required to quantify the change in this burden as a result of a preventive intervention. We aim to estimate how much a reduction in the rate of hospital-acquired infections translates into a change in hospital mortality and length of stay. METHODS: Using multistate modelling and competing risks methodology, we created a tool to estimate the reduction in burden after the introduction of a preventive effect on the infection rate. The tool requires as inputs the patients' length of hospital stay, patients' infection information (status, time), patients' final outcome (discharged alive, dead), and a preventive effect. We demonstrated the methods on both simulated data and 3 published data sets from Germany, France, and Spain. RESULTS: A hypothetical prevention that cuts the infection rate in half would result in 21 lives and 2212 patient-days saved in French ventilator-associated pneumonia data, 61 lives and 3125 patient-days saved in Spanish nosocomial infection data, and 20 lives and 1585 patient-days saved in German nosocomial pneumonia data. CONCLUSIONS: Our tool provides a quick and easy means of acquiring an impression of the impact a preventive measure would have on the burden of an infection. The tool requires quantities routinely collected and computation can be done with a calculator. R code is provided for researchers to determine the burden in various settings with various effects. Furthermore, cost data can be used to get the financial benefit of the reduction in burden.

Immunohistological composition of peri-implantitis affected tissue around ceramic implants-A pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Aim of the pilot study was the histologic classification of the inflamed peri-implant soft tissue around ceramic implants (CI) in comparison with titanium implants (TI). METHODS: Peri-implant tissue were retrieved from 15 patients (aged 34 to 88 years, seven males/eight females) with severe peri-implantitis (eight CI, seven TI). The peri-implant soft tissue samples were retrieved from the sites during scheduled removal of the implant and prepared for immunohistochemical analysis. Monoclonal antibodies (targeting CD3, CD20, CD138, and CD68) were used to identify T- and B-cells, plasma cells and macrophages. Quantitative assessment was performed by one histologically trained investigator. Linear mixed regression models were used. RESULTS: A similar numerical distribution of the cell population was found in peri-implantitis around CI compared with TI. CD3 (TI, 17% to 85% versus CI, 20% to 70% of total cell number) and CD138 (TI, 1% to 73% versus CI, 12% to 69% of total cell number) were predominantly expressed. Notably, patient-individual differences of numerical cell distribution were detected. Co-localization of B- and T-lymphocytes was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Peri-implantitis around CI in comparison with TI seems to have a similar histological appearance. Differences in cellular composition of peri-implantitis lesions might also depend on the patient's specific immune status and not only on the material used.

The influence of prosthetic crown height and implant-abutment connection design selection on the long-term implant-abutment stability: A laboratory study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Long-term edentulism associated with vertical loss of alveolar bone might lead to increased suprastructure height. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of suprastructure height on the stability of the implant-abutment connection by investigating the stability of two different two-piece titanium implants with internal hexagonal or conical connections under simulated oral loading conditions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 48 specimens were used. The specimens were divided into 2 groups according to their implant-abutment connection (group H: internal hex connection, group C: conical connection). Each group was further divided into 3 groups according to the applied suprastructure height (H1; C1: 10 mm, H2; C2: 14 mm and H3; C3: 18 mm) (n = 8). All specimens were subjected to a cyclic loading force of 98 N for 5 million simulated chewing cycles. Then, all implants that survived the chewing simulation were quasi-statically loaded until failure. The monotonic-failure load and monotonic-bending moment at failure were evaluated. RESULTS: After the dynamic chewing loading, the implants showed the following survival rates: group H: 95.8%; group C: 100%. The implant suprastructures revealed survival rates of 100% and 91.5% for groups H and C, respectively. After the artificial chewing simulation of 5 million cycles, some implants in the groups with higher crowns (14 mm and 18 mm) showed crack formation and plastic deformations under the light microscope. Regarding monotonic-failure load, implants with shorter suprastructures (10 mm) revealed higher resistance to failure (C1: 1496 and H1: 1201 N) than longer suprastructures (18 mm) (C3: 465 and H3: 585 N) which was expected. The mean monotonic-bending moment values at failure ranged from 400.7 Ncm to 673.3 Ncm. CONCLUSION: Implant-supported restorations with increased crown height are considered stable for an extended time period (5 million cycles which equals approximately 20 years clinical service) and a reliable treatment option in case of increased inter-arch distance. There was no difference in stability of the two internal connections. Nevertheless, the integrity of implant components might be impaired when crowns with increased heights are applied.

Harmonizing Heterogeneous Endpoints in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Trials Without Loss of Information.

OBJECTIVES: Many trials investigate potential effects of treatments for coronavirus disease 2019. To provide sufficient information for all involveddecision-makers (clinicians, public health authorities, and drug regulatory agencies), a multiplicity of endpoints must be considered. The objectives are to provide hands-on statistical guidelines for harmonizing heterogeneous endpoints in coronavirus disease 2019 clinical trials. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trials for patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019. SETTING: General methods that apply to any randomized controlled trial for patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019. PATIENTS: Coronavirus disease 2019 positive individuals. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We develop a multistate model that is based on hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, death, and discharge. These events are both categories of the ordinal endpoint recommended by the World Health Organization and also within the core outcome set of the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials initiative for coronavirus disease 2019 trials. To support our choice of states in the multistate model, we also perform a brief review of registered coronavirus disease 2019 clinical trials. Based on the multistate model, we give recommendation for compact, informative illustration of time-dynamic treatment effects and explorative statistical analysis. A majority of coronavirus disease 2019 clinical trials collect information on mechanical ventilation, hospitalization, and death. Using reconstructed and real data of coronavirus disease 2019 trials, we show how a stacked probability plot provides a detailed understanding of treatment effects on the patients' course of hospital stay. It contributes to harmonizing multiple endpoints and differing lengths of follow-up both within and between trials. CONCLUSIONS: All ongoing clinical trials should include a stacked probability plot in their statistical analysis plan as descriptive analysis. While primary analysis should be on an early endpoint with appropriate capability to be a surrogate (parameter), our multistate model provides additional detailed descriptive information and links results within and between coronavirus disease 2019 trials.

Association of Staphylococcus aureus Colonization and Pneumonia in the Intensive Care Unit.

Importance: Carriage of Staphylococcus aureus is associated with S aureus infection. However, associations between S aureus carriage and the development of S aureus intensive care unit (ICU) pneumonia (SAIP) have not been quantified accurately, and interpretation of available data is hampered because of variations in definitions. Objective: To quantify associations of patient-related and contextual factors, including S aureus colonization status, with the occurrence of SAIP. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted in ICUs of 30 hospitals in 11 European countries, geographically spread across 4 regions. Among patients with an anticipated length of stay 48 hours or longer who were undergoing mechanical ventilation at ICU admission, S aureus colonization was ascertained in the nose and lower respiratory tract. From this group, S aureus-colonized and noncolonized patients were enrolled into the study cohort in a 1:1 ratio. Data analysis was performed from May to November 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: SAIP was defined as any pneumonia during the ICU stay developing 48 hours or more after ICU admission with S aureus isolated from lower respiratory tract specimens or blood samples. The incidence of SAIP was derived in the study cohort and estimated on the weighted incidence calculation for the originating overarching population, while taking competing events into account. Weighted risk factor analysis was performed using Cox multivariable regression. Results: The study cohort consisted of 1933 patients (mean [SD] age, 62.0 [16.0] years); 1252 patients (64.8%) were men, and 950 patients (49.1%) were S aureus carriers at ICU admission. In all, 304 patients (15.7%) developed ICU-acquired pneumonia, of whom 131 patients (6.8%) had SAIP. Weighted SAIP incidences were 11.7 events per 1000 patient-days in the ICU for S aureus-colonized patients and 2.9 events per 1000 patient-days in the ICU for noncolonized patients (overall incidence, 4.9 events per 1000 patient-days in the ICU). The only factor independently associated with SAIP was S aureus colonization status at ICU admission (cause-specific hazard ratio, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.2-6.0; P < .001). There were marked regional differences in SAIP incidence and cause-specific hazard ratios for colonization status. Conclusions and Relevance: SAIP incidence was 4.9 events per 1000 ICU patient-days for patients undergoing mechanical ventilation at ICU admission (or shortly thereafter). The daily risk of SAIP was 3.6 times higher in patients colonized with S aureus at ICU admission compared with noncolonized patients.

Statistical Analysis of Clinical COVID-19 Data: A Concise Overview of Lessons Learned, Common Errors and How to Avoid Them.

By definition, in-hospital patient data are restricted to the time between hospital admission and discharge (alive or dead). For hospitalised cases of COVID-19, a number of events during hospitalization are of interest regarding the influence of risk factors on the likelihood of experiencing these events. The same is true for predicting times from hospital admission of COVID-19 patients to intensive care or from start of ventilation (invasive or non-invasive) to extubation. This logical restriction of the data to the period of hospitalisation is associated with a substantial risk that inappropriate methods are used for analysis. Here, we briefly discuss the most common types of bias which can occur when analysing in-hospital COVID-19 data.

Joint analysis of duration of ventilation, length of intensive care, and mortality of COVID-19 patients: a multistate approach.

BACKGROUND: The clinical progress of patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 is often associated with severe pneumonia which may require intensive care, invasive ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). The length of intensive care and the duration of these supportive therapies are clinically relevant outcomes. From the statistical perspective, these quantities are challenging to estimate due to episodes being time-dependent and potentially multiple, as well as being determined by the competing, terminal events of discharge alive and death. METHODS: We used multistate models to study COVID-19 patients' time-dependent progress and provide a statistical framework to estimate hazard rates and transition probabilities. These estimates can then be used to quantify average sojourn times of clinically important states such as intensive care and invasive ventilation. We have made two real data sets of COVID-19 patients (n = 24* and n = 53**) and the corresponding statistical code publically available. RESULTS: The expected lengths of intensive care unit (ICU) stay at day 28 for the two cohorts were 15.05* and 19.62** days, while expected durations of mechanical ventilation were 7.97* and 9.85** days. Predicted mortality stood at 51%* and 15%**. Patients mechanically ventilated at the start of the example studies had a longer expected duration of ventilation (12.25*, 14.57** days) compared to patients non-ventilated (4.34*, 1.41** days) after 28 days. Furthermore, initially ventilated patients had a higher risk of death (54%* and 20%** vs. 48%* and 6%**) after 4 weeks. These results are further illustrated in stacked probability plots for the two groups from time zero, as well as for the entire cohort which depicts the predicted proportions of the patients in each state over follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The multistate approach gives important insights into the progress of COVID-19 patients in terms of ventilation duration, length of ICU stay, and mortality. In addition to avoiding frequent pitfalls in survival analysis, the methodology enables active cases to be analyzed by allowing for censoring. The stacked probability plots provide extensive information in a concise manner that can be easily conveyed to decision makers regarding healthcare capacities. Furthermore, clear comparisons can be made among different baseline characteristics.

Improving nested case-control studies to conduct a full competing-risks analysis for nosocomial infections.

OBJECTIVE: Competing risks are a necessary consideration when analyzing risk factors for nosocomial infections (NIs). In this article, we identify additional information that a competing risks analysis provides in a hospital setting. Furthermore, we improve on established methods for nested case-control designs to acquire this information. METHODS: Using data from 2 Spanish intensive care units and model simulations, we show how controls selected by time-dynamic sampling for NI can be weighted to perform risk-factor analysis for death or discharge without infection. This extension not only enables hazard rate analysis for the competing risk, it also enables prediction analysis for NI. RESULTS: The estimates acquired from the extension were in good agreement with the results from the full (real and simulated) cohort dataset. The reduced dataset results averted any false interpretation common in a competing-risks setting. CONCLUSIONS: Using additional information that is routinely collected in a hospital setting, a nested case-control design can be successfully adapted to avoid a competing risks bias. Furthermore, this adapted method can be used to reanalyze past nested case-control studies to enhance their findings.