The tropical Atlantic climate is characterized by prominent and correlated multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sahel rainfall and hurricane activity1-4. Owing to uncertainties in both the models and the observations, the origin of the physical relationships among these systems has remained controversial3-7. Here we show that the cross-equatorial gradient in tropical Atlantic SSTs-largely driven by radiative perturbations associated with anthropogenic emissions and volcanic aerosols since 19503,7-is a key determinant of Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall. The relationship is obscured in a large ensemble of CMIP6 Earth system models, because the models overestimate long-term trends for warming in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere from around 1950 as well as associated changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall. When the overestimated trends are removed, correlations between SSTs and Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall emerge as a response to radiative forcing, especially since 1950 when anthropogenic aerosol forcing has been high. Our findings establish that the tropical Atlantic SST gradient is a stronger determinant of tropical impacts than SSTs across the entire North Atlantic, because the gradient is more physically connected to tropical impacts via local atmospheric circulations8. Our findings highlight that Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall variations can be predicted from radiative forcing driven by anthropogenic emissions and volcanism, but firmer predictions are limited by the signal-to-noise paradox9-11 and uncertainty in future climate forcings.
Models, Theoretical , Temperature , Tropical Climate , Aerosols , Air Movements , Atlantic Ocean , Cyclonic Storms , History, 20th Century , Human Activities , Rain , Uncertainty , Volcanic Eruptions
The deglacial hydroclimate in South China remains a long-standing topic of debate due to the lack of reliable moisture proxies and inconsistent model simulations. A recent hydroclimate proxy suggests that South China became wet in cold stadials during the last deglaciation, with the intensification proposed to be contributed mostly by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Here, based on a deglacial simulation in a state-of-the-art climate model that well reproduces the evolution of EASM, winter monsoon (EAWM) and the associated water isotopes in East Asia, we propose that the intensified hydroclimate in South China is also contributed heavily by the rainfall in autumn, during the transition between EASM and EAWM. The excessive rainfall in autumn results from the convergence between anomalous northerly wind due to amplified land-sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly wind associated with the anticyclone over Western North Pacific, both of which are, in turn, forced by the slowdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Regardless the rainfall change, however, the modeled δ18Op remains largely unchanged in autumn. Our results provide new insights to East Asia monsoon associated with climate change in the North Atlantic.
Abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation have been well preserved in proxy records across the globe. However, one long-standing puzzle is the apparent absence of the onset of the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) cold event around 18 ka in Greenland ice core oxygen isotope δ18 O records, inconsistent with other proxies. Here, combining proxy records with an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation, we propose that a substantial HS1 cooling onset did indeed occur over the Arctic in winter. However, this cooling signal in the depleted oxygen isotopic composition is completely compensated by the enrichment because of the loss of winter precipitation in response to sea ice expansion associated with AMOC slowdown during extreme glacial climate. In contrast, the Arctic summer warmed during HS1 and YD because of increased insolation and greenhouse gases, consistent with snowline reconstructions. Our work suggests that Greenland δ18 O may substantially underestimate temperature variability during cold glacial conditions.
Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.
