Assessing the impact of climate warming on tree species composition and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China.

Global climate change has markedly influenced the structure and distribution of mid-high-latitude forests. In the forest region of Northeast China, the magnitude of climate warming surpasses the global average, which presents immense challenges to the survival and habitat sustainability of dominant tree species. We predicted the potential changes in aboveground biomass, dominant tree species composition, and distribution in the forest region of Northeast China over the next century under different climatic conditions encompassing the current scenario and future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Forest ecosystem process model LINKAGES 3.0 was used to simulate dynamic changes in species-level aboveground biomass under four climate scenarios at the homogeneous land-type unit level. The potential spatial distribution of tree species was investigated based on three indicators: extinction, colonization, and persistence. The results showed that LINKAGES 3.0 model effectively simulated the aboveground biomass of 17 dominant tree species in the forest region of Northeast China, achieving a high accuracy with R² = 0.88. Under the current, RCP2.6, and RCP4.5 climate scenarios, the dominant tree species presented gradual increases in aboveground biomass, whereas under RCP8.5, an initial increase and subsequent decline were observed. With increasing warming magnitude, cold-temperate coniferous tree species will gradually be replaced by other temperate broad-leaved tree species. Furthermore, a large temperature increase under RCP8.5 will likely produce a significant contraction in the potential distribution range of tree species like Larch, Scotch pine, Ribbed birch, Spruce and Fir, while most temperate broad-leaved tree species and Korean pine are expected to demonstrate a northward migration. These findings provide guidance for enhancing the adaptability and resilience of forest ecosystems in middle and high latitudes and addressing the threats posed by climate warming.

Global convergence in terrestrial gross primary production response to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit.

Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increases with climate warming and may limit plant growth. However, gross primary production (GPP) responses to VPD remain a mystery, offering a significant source of uncertainty in the estimation of global terrestrial ecosystems carbon dynamics. In this study, in-situ measurements, satellite-derived data, and Earth System Models (ESMs) simulations were analysed to show that the GPP of most ecosystems has a similar threshold in response to VPD: first increasing and then declining. When VPD exceeds these thresholds, atmospheric drought stress reduces soil moisture and stomatal conductance, thereby decreasing the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Current ESMs underscore CO2 fertilization effects but predict significant GPP decline in low-latitude ecosystems when VPD exceeds the thresholds. These results emphasize the impacts of climate warming on VPD and propose limitations to future ecosystems productivity caused by increased atmospheric water demand. Incorporating VPD, soil moisture, and canopy conductance interactions into ESMs enhances the prediction of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change.

Contrasting water-use strategies to climate warming in white birch and larch in a boreal permafrost region.

The effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) with climate warming on intrinsic water-use efficiency and radial growth in boreal forests are still poorly understood. We measured tree-ring cellulose δ13C, δ18O, and tree-ring width in Larix dahurica (larch) and Betula platyphylla (white birch), and analyzed their relationships with climate variables in a boreal permafrost region of northeast China over past 68 years covering a pre-warming period (1951-1984; base period) and a warm period (1985-2018; warm period). We found that white birch but not larch significantly increased their radial growth over the warm period. The increased intrinsic water-use efficiency in both species was mainly driven by elevated Ca but not climate warming. White birch but not larch showed significantly positive correlations between tree-ring δ13C, δ18O and summer maximum temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit in the warm period, suggesting a strong stomatal response in the broad-leaved birch to temperature changes. The climate warming-induced radial growth enhancement in white birch is primarily associated with a conservative water-use strategy. In contrast, larch exhibits a profligate water-use strategy. It implies an advantage for white birch over larch in the warming permafrost regions.

Impacts of snow cover seasonality on spring land surface phenology of forests in Changbai mountains of Northeast China.

Snow cover phenology (SCP) strongly affects forest spring phenology (the start of growing season, SOS), but the underlying mechanism of the relationship varies. In this study, we aimed to analyze the relationship between forest SOS and SCP, and investigate the mechanisms about how changes of SCP affect forest SOS. To do so, we extracted forest SOS and SCP from multiple remote sensing datasets and analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of both in Changbai Mountains (2001-2020). We assessed the relationships between SCP and forest SOS using partial least squares regression analysis and investigated the potential mechanism of SCP changes affecting on forest SOS using path analysis. We found earlier forest SOS (-0.5 days/year), prolonged snow cover duration (SCD, 0.43 day/year), and earlier snow cover end day (SCED, -0.1 days/year) in the region. The results indicated that SCD showed negative influence while SCED showed positive influence on forest SOS in most of the region. Results revealed that the influence of SCP on forest SOS was mainly through altering spring temperature and the dominant path of SCP influencing forest SOS followed hydrothermal gradients. Our study reveals new insights into the influence of changing SCP on forest SOS, which provides the theoretical basis for including SCP in the phenological models.

Private land management is more important than public land in sustaining oaks in temperate forests in the eastern U.S.

Preserving the abundance and stocking of oaks (Quercus spp.) has become increasingly challenging in temperate hardwood forests of the eastern US in recent decades due to a remarkable shift in dominance to mesophytic species (e.g., red maple Acer rubrum). Studies have shown that efforts to sustain oaks while restraining maples yield limited success. Given that a significant portion of forestlands in the eastern U.S. are privately owned, it is critical to assess whether current forest management on cross-ownership forests can achieve those objectives. However, such assessments are rare. In this study, we employed a landscape modeling approach to investigate the long-term outcomes (i.e., 150-year forest composition and structure) of business-as-usual management and alternative management in a large, temperate hardwood forest landscape in Ohio, US. The business-as-usual management continues the current existing management practices, whereas the alternative management increases the pace and scale of forest management on both private and public lands to favor oaks. We compared the basal area and relative dominance for oaks (including Q. alba, Q. coccinea, Q. prinus, Q. rubra, and Q. velutina) and maples (including A. rubrum, A. saccharinum, and A. saccharum). Our results demonstrate that the implementation of business-as-usual management practices on both private and public lands may not effectively ensure the long-term sustainability of oak populations, but instead promote the proliferation of maple species over time. By contrast, alternative management on both private and public lands can effectively sustain oaks across a range of diameter classes while mitigating the growth of large, dominant maples. Our study emphasizes the influential role of private lands in driving oak-maple dynamics at the regional scale, as they can generate significant regional effects even when public lands continue with their business-as-usual management practices. Starting conditions based on landownership are crucial considerations for understanding these dynamics over time.