High resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular death in patients with stroke, independent of sex.

BACKGROUND: High resting heart rate (HRHR) is a surrogate marker of increased sympathetic outflow. In acute stroke patients, HRHR is more commonly observed in women than in men. We analysed whether HRHR (>86 bpm) adds incremental prognostic value for stroke outcomes in women. METHODS: We analysed data of 6024 patients (2568 women, mean age 68.98 years) with acute ischemic stroke from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). RESULTS: Patients with HRHR were more often female (45.3 vs 41.8%, p = 0.017), younger (66.0±13.2 vs. 67.8±12.6 years, p<0.001), had higher baseline systolic blood pressure and more often diabetes. The primary composite endpoint of recurrent ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death within 90 days occurred more often in patients with HRHR (19.3 vs. 14.6%, p <0.001). HRHR was associated with worse functional outcome at 90 days as assessed by modified Rankin Scale (mRS90: 3.03±1.98 vs. 2.82±1.94, p = 0.001). As exclusion of deceased patients (mRS90 of 6) resulted in a loss of association of HRHR with mRS90, it can be assumed that HRHR is mainly associated with post-stroke vascular mortality, but not disability. Female sex was not associated with the primary endpoint but with adverse functional outcome measured by mRS90. CONCLUSION: HRHR was associated with adverse events and mortality after stroke. Despite a higher prevalence of HRHR in women, they did not reach the primary endpoint more often. However, women had a worse functional outcome (mRS) three months after stroke, independent of HRHR.

Prognostic models in multiple sclerosis: progress and challenges in clinical integration.

As a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system, multiple sclerosis (MS) is of great individual health and socio-economic significance. To date, there is no prognostic model that is used in routine clinical care to predict the very heterogeneous course of the disease. Despite several research groups working on different prognostic models using traditional statistics, machine learning and/or artificial intelligence approaches, the use of published models in clinical decision making is limited because of poor model performance, lack of transferability and/or lack of validated models. To provide a systematic overview, we conducted a "Cochrane review" that assessed 75 published prediction models using relevant checklists (CHARMS, PROBAST, TRIPOD). We have summarized the relevant points from this analysis here so that the use of prognostic models for therapy decisions in clinical routine can be successful in the future.

Early High-Dose Erythropoietin and Cognitive Functions of School-Aged Children Born Very Preterm.

Importance: Children born very preterm are at risk for long-term neurodevelopmental sequelae. Prophylactic high-dose recombinant human erythropoietin (rhEpo) shortly after birth has not been shown to improve cognitive, motor, and behavioral development at 2 and 5 years. Objective: To investigate whether early high-dose rhEpo is associated with better executive functions and processing speed-late-maturing cognitive functions-in school-aged children born very preterm. Design, Setting, and Participants: This single-center cohort study was a prospective, observational follow-up study of a multicenter neonatal clinical trial; 365 children born very preterm (mean gestational age, 29.3 weeks [range, 26.0-31.9 weeks]) who had been enrolled in the Swiss EPO Neuroprotection Trial at birth between 2005 and 2012, and who were included in the primary outcome analyses at 2 years, were eligible to be recruited for the EpoKids study between 2017 and 2021 when they were at school age. Term-born children were additionally recruited and included in a control group. Data were analyzed between May and September 2022. Exposure: Administration of rhEpo (3000 IU/kg) or placebo (saline, 0.9%) intravenously 3 times within the first 2 days of life as part of the Swiss EPO Neuroprotection Trial. Main Outcome and Measures: A comprehensive neuropsychological test battery assessed executive functions and processing speed, and parents reported on their child's executive functions in everyday life to test the hypothesis that early high-dose rhEpo administration is associated with better cognitive outcomes at school age. Results: In the EpoKids study, 214 children born very preterm (58.6% of 365 children in eligible cohort) were assessed at a mean age of 10.4 years (range, 6.9-13.4 years); 117 (54.7%) were boys. There was no evidence that the 117 children who had received rhEpo differed from the 97 children who had received placebo in any of the 15 executive function and processing speed tests, nor in parent-rated executive functions (estimates ranged from -0.138 to 0.084, all 95% CIs included 0). Irrespective of rhEpo or placebo allocation, children born very preterm scored lower on 11 of 15 executive function and processing speed tests than term-born peers (estimates ranged from 0.112 to 0.255, 95% CIs did not include 0). Conclusion and Relevance: This study found no evidence for a positive association between prophylactic early high-dose rhEpo administration and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes after very preterm birth. These results suggest that a comprehensive approach, including pharmacological and nonpharmacological prevention and intervention strategies, is needed to support these children's neurodevelopmental outcome.

Vitamin B12 status and the risk of developing sepsis in patients with bacterial infection: a prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data have shown that vitamin B12 has immunomodulatory effects via different pathways, which could influence the pathophysiology of sepsis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether vitamin B12 levels, assessed by the measurement of holotranscobalamin (HTC), total vitamin B12 (B12), and methylmalonic acid (MMA, which accumulates in case of B12 deficiency), are associated with the development of sepsis in patients with onset of bacterial infection. METHODS: This was a single-center, prospective observational pilot study. Adult patients who presented to the emergency department with bacterial infection confirmed by a positive microbiological culture result were included in the study and followed up for 6 days to assess whether they developed sepsis or not. The primary objective was to compare HTC concentration in patients who developed sepsis to those who did not develop sepsis. Secondary objectives were the evaluation of B12 and MMA concentrations in those two groups. Multiple logistic regression models were used, with presence of sepsis as the outcome variable, and HTC, B12, and MMA concentrations as predictor variables, separately, and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2022, 2131 patients were assessed for eligibility, of whom 100 met the inclusion criteria. One patient was excluded from the analysis due to missing data. Of the 99 patients, 29 developed sepsis. There was no evidence for an association between HTC or B12 concentration and the development of sepsis (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.31-1.29, p = 0.232, OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.44-1.54, p = 0.584, respectively). There was an association between MMA concentration and the development of sepsis, with a positive effect, i.e. with increasing MMA, the odds for sepsis increased (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.21-4.87, p = 0.014). This association remained significant when adjusted for confounders (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.23-6.60, p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found an association between elevated MMA concentration and the development of sepsis. We did not find an association between HTC and B12 concentrations and the development of sepsis. Further, larger studies are warranted, as it could lead to interventional trials investigating whether B12 supplementation provides a clinical benefit to patients with infection or sepsis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov under the identifier NCT04008446 on June 17, 2019.

Outcome-oriented clinicopathological reappraisal of sinonasal adenoid cystic carcinoma with broad morphological spectrum and high MYB::NFIB prevalence.

Adenoid cystic carcinoma (AdCC) is a salivary gland neoplasm that infrequently appears in the sinonasal region. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome and clinicopathological parameters of sinonasal AdCC. A retrospective analysis was conducted on all cases of AdCC affecting the nasal cavity or paranasal sinuses between 2000 and 2018 at the University Hospital Zurich. Tumor material was examined for morphological features and analyzed for molecular alterations. A total of 14 patients were included. Mean age at presentation was 57.7 years. Sequencing revealed MYB::NFIB gene fusion in 11/12 analyzable cases. Poor prognostic factors were solid variant (p < 0.001), histopathological high-grade transformation (p < 0.001), and tumor involvement of the sphenoid sinus (p = 0.02). The median recurrence-free survival (RFS) and OS were 5.2 years and 11.3 years. The RFS rates at 1-, 5-, and 10-year were 100%, 53.8%, and 23.1%. The OS rates at 1-, 5-, and 10- years were 100%, 91.7%, and 62.9%, respectively. In Conclusion, the solid variant (solid portion > 30%), high-grade transformation, and sphenoid sinus involvement are negative prognostic factors for sinonasal AdCC. A high prevalence of MYB::NFIB gene fusion may help to correctly classify diagnostically challenging (e.g. metatypical) cases.

Sex differences in pediatric sepsis-a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric sepsis remains a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite advancements in modern medicine, it accounts for more than 3 million childhood deaths per year. Multiple studies have emphasized that sex and gender have an impact on the treatment and outcome of various diseases. Adult studies have revealed sex differences in pathophysiological responses to septic shock, as well as a possible protective effect of estrogens on critical illness. Sex-specific maturational and developmental differences in host immunology have been previously demonstrated for neonatal and pediatric age groups. At present, there are no studies assessing the impact of sex on outcomes of children with sepsis. METHODS: The goal of this study is to assess sex-specific differences in childhood sepsis survival outcomes. We will systematically assess associations of sex and gender with outcomes in pediatric sepsis in the literature by performing a systematic search of MEDLINE and Embase databases. We will include all English language randomized trials and cohort studies. The study population will include children > 37 weeks gestational age and < 18 years of age. Exposure will be sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock and the main comparison will be between male and female sex. The primary outcome will be hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will be the pediatric intensive care unit and hospital length of stay. DISCUSSION: Results from this review are expected to provide important information on the association of sex with the outcomes of pediatric sepsis. If an association is noted, this study may serve as a foundation for further research evaluating the pathophysiological aspects as well as potential socioeconomic factors responsible for the clinically detected sex differences. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022315753.

Thromboprophylaxis during neoadjuvant chemotherapy for bladder cancer reduces thromboembolism and bleeding.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) and bleeding with or without thromboprophylaxis during neoadjuvant chemotherapy in bladder cancer patients scheduled for radical cystectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in 4886 patients with non-metastatic bladder cancer undergoing cystectomy across 28 centres in 13 countries between 1990 and 2021. Inverse probability weighting analyses were performed to estimate the effect of thromboprophylaxis on VTE and bleeding. RESULTS: In 147 patients (3%) VTEs were recorded within the first year. These occurred a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 127 (82-198) days after bladder cancer diagnosis. Bleeding events occurred in 131 patients (3%) within the first year. These occurred a median (IQR) of 101 (83-171) days after cancer diagnosis. In inverse probability weighting analyses, compared to patients without thromboprophylaxis during chemotherapy, patients with thromboprophylaxis had not only a lower risk of VTE (hazard ratio [HR] 0.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12-0.81; P = 0.016) but also a lower bleeding risk (HR 0.03, 95% CI 0.09-0.12; P <0.0001). The retrospective nature of the study was its main limitation. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective analysis, the benefit of thromboprophylaxis during neoadjuvant chemotherapy before cystectomy is in line with data from randomised trials in other malignancies. Our data suggest thromboprophylaxis is protective against VTEs and should be the standard of care during neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Haptoglobin Attenuates Cerebrospinal Fluid Hemoglobin-Induced Neurological Deterioration in Sheep.

Secondary brain injury (SBI) occurs with a lag of several days post-bleeding in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and is a strong contributor to mortality and long-term morbidity. aSAH-SBI coincides with cell-free hemoglobin (Hb) release into the cerebrospinal fluid. This temporal association and convincing pathophysiological concepts suggest that CSF-Hb could be a targetable trigger of SBI. However, sparse experimental evidence for Hb's neurotoxicity in vivo defines a significant research gap for clinical translation. We modeled the CSF-Hb exposure observed in aSAH patients in conscious sheep, which allowed us to assess neurological functions in a gyrencephalic species. Twelve animals were randomly assigned for 3-day bi-daily intracerebroventricular (ICV) injections of either Hb or Hb combined with the high-affinity Hb scavenger protein haptoglobin (Hb-Hp, CSL888). Repeated CSF sampling confirmed clinically relevant CSF-Hb concentrations. This prolonged CSF-Hb exposure over 3 days resulted in disturbed movement activity, reduced food intake, and impaired observational neuroscores. The Hb-induced neurotoxic effects were significantly attenuated when Hb was administered with equimolar haptoglobin. Preterminal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed no CSF-Hb-specific structural brain alterations. In both groups, histology demonstrated an inflammatory response and revealed enhanced perivascular histiocytic infiltrates in the Hb-Hp group, indicative of adaptive mechanisms. Heme exposure in CSF and iron deposition in the brain were comparable, suggesting comparable clearance efficiency of Hb and Hb-haptoglobin complexes from the intracranial compartment. We identified a neurological phenotype of CSF-Hb toxicity in conscious sheep, which is rather due to neurovascular dysfunction than structural brain injury. Haptoglobin was effective at attenuating CSF-Hb-induced neurological deterioration, supporting its therapeutic potential.

Longitudinal Resilience and Risk Factors in Pediatric Postoperative Pain (LORRIS): Protocol for a Prospective Longitudinal Swiss University Children's Hospitals-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) is defined as pain that persists after a surgical procedure and has a significant impact on quality of life. Previous studies show the importance of psychological factors in CPSP, yet the majority of studies focused solely on negative emotions. This longitudinal observational study aims to broaden this knowledge base by examining the role of emotional state, emotion variability, emotion regulation and emotion differentiation on the child and the parent level for the development CPSP, and to describe pain and emotion-related trajectories following surgery. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We intend to include 280 children and adolescents aged 8-18 years with a planned orthopaedic surgery and their parents. A total of five assessment time points is planned: 3 weeks before surgery (baseline), 2 weeks after surgery (post) and 3 months (follow-up (FU) 1), 6 months and 12 months after surgery. At baseline and post only, children and parents are asked to complete a daily diary thrice a day for a week where they rate their current emotional state and their pain severity (children only). Emotional state ratings will be used to calculate indices of emotion variability, emotion regulation and emotion differentiation. Children and parents will complete questionnaires at each time point, including measures on quality of life, social support, sleep, and symptoms of anxiety and depression.To predict development of CPSP, generalised linear regression models will be used, resulting in ORs and 95% CIs. Pearson product-moment correlations between predictors and outcomes will be evaluated at each time point. The primary outcome of the prediction model is CPSP at FU1. For the trajectory analysis, the classification method K-means for longitudinal data will be used to determine clusters in the data. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Ethics Committee of the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland, has approved the study (ID: 2023-01475). Participants will be compensated, and a dissemination workshop will be held. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05816174.

Is there a rise of prevalence for Molar Incisor Hypomineralization? A meta-analysis of published data.

Since Molar Incisor Hypomineralization was first described as a pathologic entity, public perception often suggests a considerable rise in prevalence of the respective disease. Since there are still considerable doubts regarding the etiology and-accordingly-prevention of MIH and respective therapeutic approaches are difficult this question is of considerable clinical and public interest. Accordingly, a systematic literature search in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews on Medline, Cochrane Database, EMBASE, LILACS, Web of Science, Google scholar, Scopus was performed to retrieve original articles reporting the prevalence of MIH as defined by the European Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (EAPD). From initially 2360 retrieved titles, 344 full texts were assessed for possible inclusion and finally 167 articles of mainly moderate to high quality and based on data of 46'613 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. All studies published before 2001 had to be excluded since it was not possible to align the findings with the EAPD classification. Studies varied considerably regarding cohort size (25 to 23'320, mean 1'235)) and age (5.6-19 y, mean 9.8 y). Over all studies, the weighted mean for the prevalence for MIH was 12.8% (95% CI 11.5%-14.1%) and no significant changes with respect to either publication year or birthyear were found. A sub-analysis of eleven studies reporting on the prevalence in different age groups, however, revealed strong evidence for an increasing prevalence between the years 1992 (3%) and 2013 (13%).Therefore, based on data from cross-sectional studies a possible rise in prevalence of MIH remains unclear. Future prospective large-scale studies under standardized examination conditions with an emphasis on examiner calibration are needed to gain better understanding in the evolution of the prevalence of MIH.

Impact of sex and gender on post-COVID-19 syndrome, Switzerland, 2020.

BackgroundWomen are overrepresented among individuals with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). Biological (sex) as well as sociocultural (gender) differences between women and men might account for this imbalance, yet their impact on PASC is unknown.AimWe assessed the impact of sex and gender on PASC in a Swiss population.MethodOur multicentre prospective cohort study included 2,856 (46% women, mean age 44.2 ± 16.8 years) outpatients and hospitalised patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong those who remained outpatients during their first infection, women reported persisting symptoms more often than men (40.5% vs 25.5% of men; p < 0.001). This sex difference was absent in hospitalised patients. In a crude analysis, both female biological sex (RR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.41-1.79; p < 0.001) and a score summarising gendered sociocultural variables (RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03-1.07; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with PASC. Following multivariable adjustment, biological female sex (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.74-1.25; p = 0.763) was outperformed by feminine gender-related factors such as a higher stress level (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06; p = 0.003), lower education (RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.30; p = 0.011), being female and living alone (RR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.29-2.83; p = 0.001) or being male and earning the highest income in the household (RR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60-0.97; p = 0.030).ConclusionSpecific sociocultural parameters that differ in prevalence between women and men, or imply a unique risk for women, are predictors of PASC and may explain, at least in part, the higher incidence of PASC in women. Once patients are hospitalised during acute infection, sex differences in PASC are no longer evident.

Development and internal validation of a prediction model for long-term opioid use-an analysis of insurance claims data.

ABSTRACT: In the United States, a public-health crisis of opioid overuse has been observed, and in Europe, prescriptions of opioids are strongly increasing over time. The objective was to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to be used at the beginning of an opioid prescription episode, aiming to identify individual patients at high risk for long-term opioid use based on routinely collected data. Predictors including demographics, comorbid diseases, comedication, morphine dose at episode initiation, and prescription practice were collected. The primary outcome was long-term opioid use, defined as opioid use of either >90 days duration and ≥10 claims or >120 days, independent of the number of claims. Traditional generalized linear statistical regression models and machine learning approaches were applied. The area under the curve, calibration plots, and the scaled Brier score assessed model performance. More than four hundred thousand opioid episodes were included. The final risk prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.927 (95% confidence interval 0.924-0.931) in the validation set, and this model had a scaled Brier score of 48.5%. Using a threshold of 10% predicted probability to identify patients at high risk, the overall accuracy of this risk prediction model was 81.6% (95% confidence interval 81.2% to 82.0%). Our study demonstrated that long-term opioid use can be predicted at the initiation of an opioid prescription episode, with satisfactory accuracy using data routinely collected at a large health insurance company. Traditional statistical methods resulted in higher discriminative ability and similarly good calibration as compared with machine learning approaches.

Long-term intellectual and developmental outcomes after pediatric epilepsy surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

In addition to the primary aim of seizure freedom, a key secondary aim of pediatric epilepsy surgery is to stabilize and, potentially, optimize cognitive development. Although the efficacy of surgical treatment for seizure control has been established, the long-term intellectual and developmental trajectories are yet to be delineated. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting pre- and postsurgical intelligence or developmental quotients (IQ/DQ) of children with focal lesional epilepsy aged ≤18 years at epilepsy surgery and assessed at >2 years after surgery. We determined the IQ/DQ change and conducted a random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression to assess its determinants. We included 15 studies reporting on 341 patients. The weighted mean age at surgery was 7.1 years (range = .3-13.8). The weighted mean postsurgical follow-up duration was 5.6 years (range = 2.7-12.8). The overall estimate of the mean presurgical IQ/DQ was 60 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 47-73), the postsurgical IQ/DQ was 61 (95% CI = 48-73), and the change was +.94 IQ/DQ (95% CI = -1.70 to 3.58, p = .486). Children with presurgical IQ/DQ ≥ 70 showed a tendency for higher gains than those with presurgical IQ/DQ < 70 (p = .059). Higher gains were determined by cessation of antiseizure medication (ASM; p = .041), not just seizure freedom. Our findings indicate, on average, stabilization of intellectual and developmental functioning at long-term follow-up after epilepsy surgery. Once seizure freedom has been achieved, ASM cessation enables the optimization of intellectual and developmental trajectories in affected children.

Financial Toxicity in Swiss Cancer Patients Treated with Proton Therapy: An Observational Cross-Sectional Study on Self-Reported Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Proton therapy is indicated for cancers that would be difficult to treat with conventional radiotherapy. Compulsory healthcare insurance covers the costs of this therapy in Switzerland, but this does not mean that proton therapy is cost-neutral for every cancer patient. Significant out-of-pocket (OOP) costs may arise due to expenses associated with proton therapy, and patients may experience treatment-related financial distress-an effect known as "financial toxicity." This study investigates the financial toxicity of patients undergoing proton therapy in a high-income country with a compulsory health insurance policy. METHODS: Between September 2019 and November 2021, 146 Swiss cancer patients treated with proton therapy participated in this study, of whom 90 (62%) were adults and 56 (38%) were caregivers of child cancer patients. Financial toxicity was assessed using the FACIT Comprehensive Score for Financial Toxicity (COST). OOP costs during proton therapy were recorded weekly, and financial coping strategies were captured at the end of treatment. FINDINGS: The median COST score, indicating financial toxicity, was 29.9 (IQR 21.0; 36.0) for all patients, 30.0 (IQR 21.3; 37.9) for adults, and 28.0 (IQR 20.5; 34.0) for children's caregivers. Higher income (estimate 8.1, 95% CI 3.7 to 12.4, p ≤ 0.001) was significantly associated with higher COST scores, indicating less financial toxicity. Further distance from home to the treatment centre per 100 km (estimate -3.7, 95% CI -5.7 to -1.9, p ≤ 0.001) was significantly associated with lower COST scores, indicating increased financial toxicity. Married adult patients had substantially lower COST scores than single patients (estimate: -9.1, 95% CI -14.8 to -3.4, p ≤ 0.001). The median OOP cost was 2050 Swiss francs (CHF) and was spent mainly on travel, accommodation, and eating out. Sixty-three (43%) patients used their savings; 54 (37%) cut spending on leisure activities; 21 (14.4%) cut living expenses; 14 (9.6%) borrowed money; nine (6.2%) worked more; and four (2.7%) sold property. Patients with high COST scores used significantly fewer coping strategies such as saving on leisure activities (estimate -9.5, 95% CI -12.4 to -6.6, p ≤ 0.001), spending savings (estimate -3.9, 95% CI -6.3 to -1.4, p = 0.002), borrowing money (estimate -6.3, 95% CI -10.4 to -2.2, p = 0.003), and increasing workload (estimate -5.5, 95% CI -10.5 to -0.4, p = 0.035). INTERPRETATION: A substantial number of cancer patients treated with proton therapy experience financial toxicity in Switzerland. Long travel distances to the proton therapy centre and low income negatively affect the financial well-being of these patients during proton therapy.

A prognostic model for tumor recurrence and progression after meningioma surgery: preselection for further molecular work-up.

Purpose: The selection of patients for further therapy after meningioma surgery remains a challenge. Progress has been made in this setting in selecting patients that are more likely to have an aggressive disease course by using molecular tests such as gene panel sequencing and DNA methylation profiling. The aim of this study was to create a preselection tool warranting further molecular work-up. Methods: All patients undergoing surgery for resection or biopsy of a cranial meningioma from January 2013 until December 2018 at the University Hospital Zurich with available tumor histology were included. Various prospectively collected clinical, radiological, histological and immunohistochemical variables were analyzed and used to train a logistic regression model to predict tumor recurrence or progression. Regression coefficients were used to generate a scoring system grading every patient into low, intermediate, and high-risk group for tumor progression or recurrence. Results: Out of a total of 13 variables preselected for this study, previous meningioma surgery, Simpson grade, progesterone receptor staining as well as presence of necrosis and patternless growth on histopathological analysis of 378 patients were included into the final model. Discrimination showed an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.73 - 0.88), the model was well-calibrated. Recurrence-free survival was significantly decreased in patients in intermediate and high-risk score groups (p-value < 0.001). Conclusion: The proposed prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration. This prediction model is based on easily obtainable information and can be used as an adjunct for patient selection for further molecular work-up in a tertiary hospital setting.

Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet. OBJECTIVES: To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression. MAIN RESULTS: We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Enoxaparin for symptomatic COVID-19 managed in the ambulatory setting: An individual patient level analysis of the OVID and ETHIC trials.

BACKGROUND: Antithrombotic treatment may improve the disease course in non-critically ill, symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients. METHODS: We performed an individual patient-level analysis of the OVID and ETHIC randomized controlled trials, which compared enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis for either 14 (OVID) or 21 days (ETHIC) vs. no thromboprophylaxis for outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one additional risk factor. The primary efficacy outcome included all-cause hospitalization and all-cause death within 30 days from randomization. Both studies were prematurely stopped for futility. Secondary efficacy outcomes were major symptomatic venous thromboembolic events, arterial cardiovascular events, or their composite occurring within 30 days from randomization. The same outcomes were assessed over a 90-day follow-up. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (ISTH criteria). RESULTS: A total of 691 patients were randomized: 339 to receive enoxaparin and 352 to the control group. Over 30-day follow-up, the primary efficacy outcome occurred in 6.0 % of patients in the enoxaparin group vs. 5.8 % of controls for a risk ratio (RR) of 1.05 (95%CI 0.57-1.92). The incidence of major symptomatic venous thromboembolic events and arterial cardiovascular events was 0.9 % vs. 1.8 %, respectively (RR 0.52; 95%CI 0.13-2.06). Most cardiovascular thromboembolic events were represented by symptomatic venous thromboembolic events, occurring in 0.6 % vs. 1.5 % of patients, respectively. A similar distribution of outcomes between the treatment groups was observed over 90 days. No major bleeding occurred in the enoxaparin group vs. one (0.3 %) in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence for the clinical benefit of early administration of enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis in outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19. These results should be interpreted taking into consideration the relatively low occurrence of events.

Long-term neurodevelopmental outcome and serial cerebral magnetic resonance imaging assessment in Fontan patients at school age.

OBJECTIVES: Children with univentricular congenital heart disease undergoing staged surgical palliation are at risk for impaired neurodevelopmental (ND) outcome. Little is known about the long-term effects on brain growth until school age. METHODS: In a prospective two-centre study, consecutive patients undergoing stage I (Hybrid or Norwood) to stage III (Fontan procedure) were evaluated by 2 serial cerebral magnetic resonance imaging examinations, somatic growth and ND testing before Fontan procedure at 2 years of age (Bayley-III) and after Fontan at 6-8 years of age (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition). Magnetic resonance imaging findings were compared with 8 healthy controls. Medical and sociodemographic characteristics were documented and related to cerebral and ND findings. RESULTS: We examined 33 children (16 female) at a mean age of 2.3 (0.35) and 6.8 (± 0.7) years. The mean Bayley-III cognitive scales were 99.1 (9.9), language scales 98.4 (11.9) and motor scales 98.5 (13.8) at the first examination. Follow-up at school age showed a mean total IQ of 86.7 (13.6). The rate of structural brain lesions increased from 39% at 2 years to 58% at school age. Bayley-III language scale (P = 0.021) and mean Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (P = 0.019) were lower in children with pathological MR findings. Total brain volume (P < 0.001), total grey matter volume (P = 0.002), deep grey matter volume (P = 0.001) and white matter volume (P < 0.001) were smaller in patients compared to age- and gender-matched healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: Smaller brain volumes and structural brain lesions in complex congenital heart defect patients at school age are associated with impaired ND outcome. For the evaluation of predictive surgical or clinical factors, larger multicentre studies are needed.

Visual and Anatomical Outcomes of a Single Intravitreal Dexamethasone in Diabetic Macular Edema: An 8 Year Real-World Study.

IMPORTANCE: Diabetic macular edema (DME) is a major cause of vision loss in patients with diabetes mellitus. Intravitreal dexamethasone is a treatment option for patients unsuitable for or non-responsive to anti-angiogenic agents. OBJECTIVE: To quantify visual and anatomical outcomes from an initial intravitreal dexamethasone injection over the expected 6-month period of dexamethasone release by the implant. Design and enrolment: This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic medical records of patients reviewed between 1 January 2012 and 1 April 2022. SETTING: A tertiary eye-care center in London, United Kingdom; Moorfields Eye Hospital National Healthcare System Foundation Trust. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort comprised 418 adult patients with DME who received an initial treatment of 700 µg intravitreal dexamethasone in the study period. Of these, 240 patients met the inclusion criteria of ≥2 hospital visits following initial injection (≥1 beyond 6 months) and no previous ocular corticosteroid treatment or missing assessment at baseline. EXPOSURE(S): Intravitreal dexamethasone implant (700 µg). MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S): Probability of a positive visual outcome, defined as ≥5 or ≥10 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS)-letter gain after treatment when compared to baseline (Kaplan-Meier models). RESULTS: From the initial intravitreal dexamethasone injection alone, we observed a >75% chance of gaining ≥5 ETDRS letters and >50% chance of gaining ≥10 ETDRS letters within 6 months. There was less than a 50% chance of sustaining either positive visual outcome beyond 4 months. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Most patients can be expected to have a positive visual outcome following an initial injection of dexamethasone implants that subsides within 4 months. Real-world re-treatment was observed to be delayed until after visual benefits were lost in half of the cohort. Further research will be needed to study the effects of delays in re-treatment.