Drivers of land-use changes in societies with decreasing populations: A comparison of the factors affecting farmland abandonment in a food production area in Japan.

The extraordinary population growth of the 20th century will subside in the 21st century, followed by depopulation, constituting the first population decline phase in human history in Japan and other developed countries. The drivers of land-use change during the population decline phase are expected to differ from those of the population growth phase; however, research on land-use drivers during the decline phase is limited. Identifying these drivers is necessary to develop effective management plans for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the decline phase. First, we calculated the probability of farmland abandonment in Hokkaido, a Japanese food production area, from 1973-2009 and divided the period into the population growth phase (1978-1997) and the decline phase (1997-2009). We examined various geographical and social factors that were assumed to alter the land use during these two phases. Geographical and social conditions are key factors in determining the probability of farmland abandonment, but their influences varied between the two phases. The farmlands located on geographically uncultivable sites, such as marginal, underproductive, narrow, and steep land, were abandoned during these phases; however, social conditions, such as the distance from densely inhabited districts (DIDs) and the population, exerted opposite effects during these two phases. Farmland abandonment occurred near DIDs (i.e., urban areas) during the population growth phase, whereas farmland abandonment occurred far from DIDs and sparsely populated farmlands during the decline phase. Farmland abandonment was strongly affected by government policy during the population growth phase, but the policy weakened during the decline phase, which triggered farmland abandonment throughout Hokkaido. The geographical and social drivers found in the present study may provide new insights for other developed countries experiencing depopulation problems.

Fourfold daily growth rate in multicellular marine alga Ulva meridionalis.

Microalgae with high growth rates have been considered as promising organisms to replace fossil resources with contemporary primary production as a renewable source. However, their microscopic size makes it hard to be harvested for industrial applications. In this regard, multicellular macroalgae are more suitable for harvesting. Here, we show that Ulva meridionalis has the highest growth rate ever reported for a multicellular autotrophic plant. Contrasted to the known bloom-forming species U. prolifera growing at an approximately two-fold growth rate per day in optimum conditions, U. meridionalis grows at a daily rate of over fourfold. The high growth ability of this multicellular alga would provide the most effective method for CO2 fixation and biomass production.

Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps.

BACKGROUND: The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions. RESULTS: The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5°N, 137.5-137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. CONCLUSIONS: Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.

Analyzing community structure subject to incomplete sampling: hierarchical community model vs. canonical ordinations.

Recently developing hierarchical community models (HCMs) accounting for incomplete sampling are promising approaches to understand community organization. However, pros and cons of incorporating incomplete sampling in the analysis and related design issues remain unknown. In this study, we compared HCM and canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) carried out with 10 different dissimilarity coefficients to evaluate how each approach restores true community abundance data sampled with imperfect detection. We conducted simulation experiments with varying numbers of sampling sites, visits, mean detectability and mean abundance. Performance of HCM was measured by estimates of "expected" (mean) abundance ( λ^ij ) and realized abundance ( N^ij : direct estimate of site- and species-specific abundance). We also compared HCM and different types of RDA (normal, partial, and weighted), all performed with the same ten different dissimilarity coefficients, with unequal number of visits to sampling sites. In addition, we applied the models to a virtual survey carried out on the Barro Colorado Island tree plot data for which we know true community abundance. Simulation experiments showed that N^ij yielded by HCM best restored the underlying abundance of constituent species among 12 abundance estimates by HCM and RDA regardless if the sampling was equal or unequal. Mean abundance predominantly affected the performance of HCM and RDA while λ^ij yielded by HCM had comparable performance to percentage difference and Gower dissimilarity coefficients of RDA. Relative performance of RDA types depended on the combination of dissimilarity coefficients and the distribution of sampling effort. Best performance of N^ij followed by λ^ij , percentage difference and Gower dissimilarity were also observed for the analysis of tree plot data, and graphical plots (triplots) based on λ^ij rather than N^ij clearly separated the effects of two environmental covariates on the abundance of constituent species. Under our conditions of model evaluation and the method, we concluded that, in terms of assessing the environmental dependence of abundance, HCMs and RDA can have comparable performance if we can choose appropriate dissimilarity coefficients for RDA. However, since HCMs provide straightforward biological interpretations of parameter estimates and flexibility of the analysis, HCMs would be useful in many situations as well as conventional canonical ordinations.

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer.

Ongoing climate change and land-use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant-herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land-use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land-use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land-use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land-use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land-use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land-use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.

Novel distribution pattern between coexisting sexual and obligate asexual variants of the true estuarine macroalga Ulva prolifera.

Where sexual and asexual forms coexist within a species, the asexuals are often found to be prevalent in marginal habitats. This asexual distribution pattern has received evolutionary attention linked to the paradox of sex. In many marine species, there is a distributional trend of asexual modes being more common in lower salinity waters regarded as the ecogeographic marginal, being explained by negative effects of low salinities on sexual reproductive success. However, the distribution pattern of estuarine species recently adapted to low salinity waters has remained unknown. The brackish macroalga Ulva prolifera being a major benthic component of estuarine ecosystems includes a sexual variant and obligate asexual variants by means of motile spores. We examined the sexual-asexual distribution pattern of this alga along a salinity gradient in river estuaries. Surprisingly, opposite to the distributional trend of marine organisms, the results clearly showed the persistent predominance of sexuals in the lower salinity reaches than the asexuals. In addition, a frequent alternating of dioecious gametophytes and sporophytes in the sexual population was observed, suggesting the sexual reproductive process would be robustly performed in the low salinity waters. Considering U. prolifera had evolved from the ancestral marine species to become a true estuarine species of which the core habitat is the low salinity reaches, in a broad sense its sexual-asexual distribution pattern would be involved in asexual marginal occupations of the species range previously reported in other organisms. Based on the frozen niche variation model, we can give a concise explanation for the evolutionary process of this pattern; multiple asexuals with frozen genotypic variation had arisen from sexual ancestors undergoing low salinity adaptation and share the estuarine habitat with the sexuals at present.