RESUMEN
BackgroundMortality rates provide an opportunity to identify and act on the health system intervention for preventing deaths. Hence, it is essential to appreciate the influence of age structure while reporting mortality for a better summary of the magnitude of the epidemic. ObjectivesWe described and compared the pattern of COVID-19 mortality standardized by age between selected states and India from January to November 2020. MethodsWe initially estimated the Indian population for 2020 using the decadal growth rate from the previous census (2011). This was followed by estimations of crude and age-adjusted mortality rate per million for India and the selected states. We used this information to perform indirect standardization and derive the age-standardized mortality rates for the states for comparison. In addition, we derived a ratio for age-standardized mortality to compare across age groups within the state. We extracted information regarding COVID-19 deaths from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme special surveillance portal up to November 16, 2020. ResultsThe crude mortality rate of India stands at 88.9 per million population(118,883/1,337,328,910). Age-adjusted mortality rate (per million) was highest for Delhi (300.5) and lowest for Kerala (35.9).The age-standardized mortality rate (per million) for India is (<15 years=1.6, 15-29 years=6.3, 30-44 years=35.9, 45- 59 years=198.8, 60-74 years=571.2, [≥]75 years=931.6). The ratios for age-standardized mortality increase proportionately from 45-59 years age group across all the states. ConclusionThere is high COVID-19 mortality not only among the elderly ages, but we also identified heavy impact of COVID-19 on the working population. Therefore, we recommend further evaluation of age-adjusted mortality for all States and inclusion of variables like gender, socio-economic status for standardization while identifying at-risk populations and implementing priority public health actions.
RESUMEN
Delhi, the national capital of India, has experienced multiple SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 2020 and reached a population seropositivity of over 50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and partial reduction of immunity elicited by prior infection (median estimates; x1.5-fold, 20% reduction). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 86% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi. One-Sentence SummaryDelhi experienced an overwhelming surge of COVID-19 cases and fatalities peaking in May 2021 as the highly transmissible and immune evasive Delta variant replaced the Alpha variant.
