Can profiles of behaviors occurring within 48 h of a suicide attempt predict future severity of suicidal thoughts and reattempt?: An examination of hospitalized patients 12 Months post-discharge.

Behavioral warning signs (WS) are near-term changes within individuals, which aid in determining imminent risk for suicide attempts. However, those who attempt suicide differ in their engagement of WS, and it is unclear if these differences relate to future risk of suicidal behavior. Using a sample of 132 adults presenting to a hospital following a suicide attempt, the current study sought to determine if differences in engagement in WS for the index attempt prospectively predicted suicide attempt, frequency of ideation, and intensity of suicide ideation 12 months post discharge. Latent class analyses (LCAs) conducted on 6 behaviors (i.e., alcohol use, nightmares, interpersonal negative life events, suicide communication, risky behavior, low sleep, and high sleep) found a 5-class solution optimally fit the data. One identified class, characterized by engagement in risky behaviors the hours before an attempt differed from other identified classes in terms of risk for future suicidal ideation and behaviors. More specifically, participants in "High Risky Behavior" class had higher rates of 12-month suicide reattempt, significantly more frequent suicide ideation, and significantly worse intensity of suicide ideation during the 12 months following their index attempt compared to participants endorsing typical patterns of WS. These results held when adjusting for various traditional baseline covariates (e.g., depressive symptoms). The current study demonstrates that patterns of behavioral WS may be utilized as their own prognostic indicator of future suicidal ideation and behaviors among high-risk individuals reporting a recent suicide attempt, which can inform post-discharge clinical intervention and prevention efforts.

Warning signs in a period of acute risk for suicide attempt: The utility of count- and combination-based classification.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to establish if models involving the specific combinations of identifiable behavioral warning signs (WS; i.e., alcohol use, suicidal communications, preparation of personal affairs, experiencing negative interpersonal life events) for a suicide attempt outperformed a simpler count model of WS to distinguish an acute risk period (the six hours prior to a suicide attempt) from a control period (a matched six-hour period the day prior). METHOD: Generalized linear mixed models tested all logical combinations of four behavioral WS in addition to a count variable of the number of behavioral warning signs. For the count variable, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was utilized to determine the optimal cut point for the number of endorsed WS. RESULTS: Area under the curve (AUC) compared classification across all models, with the count model demonstrating similar classification performance to the best multivariate model (AUCs of 0.72 and 0.73, respectively), with an optimal cut point of endorsing one or more WS. CONCLUSION: Although determinations of acute risk should be informed by multiple sources of information, this study suggests a relatively simple count-based approach that considers the presence of one (or more) behavioral WS may be used as a potential indication of increased acute risk for suicide attempt.