Development and validation of an early warning tool for sepsis and decompensation in children during emergency department triage.

This study was designed to develop and validate an early warning system for sepsis based on a predictive model of critical decompensation. Data from the electronic medical records for 537,837 visits to a pediatric Emergency Department (ED) from March 2013 to December 2019 were collected. A multiclass stochastic gradient boosting model was built to identify early warning signs associated with death, severe sepsis, non-severe sepsis, and bacteremia. Model features included triage vital signs, previous diagnoses, medications, and healthcare utilizations within 6 months of the index ED visit. There were 483 patients who had severe sepsis and/or died, 1102 had non-severe sepsis, 1103 had positive bacteremia tests, and the remaining had none of the events. The most important predictors were age, heart rate, length of stay of previous hospitalizations, temperature, systolic blood pressure, and prior sepsis. The one-versus-all area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) were 0.979 (0.967, 0.991), 0.990 (0.985, 0.995), 0.976 (0.972, 0.981), and 0.968 (0.962, 0.974) for death, severe sepsis, non-severe sepsis, and bacteremia without sepsis respectively. The multi-class macro average AUROC and area under the precision recall curve were 0.977 and 0.316 respectively. The study findings were used to develop an automated early warning decision tool for sepsis. Implementation of this model in pediatric EDs will allow sepsis-related critical decompensation to be predicted accurately after a few seconds of triage.

Multicenter study of risk factors of unplanned 30-day readmissions in pediatric oncology.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric oncology patients have high rates of hospital readmission but there is a dearth of research into risk factors for unplanned 30-day readmissions among this high-risk population. AIM: In this study, we built a statistical model to provide insight into risk factors of unplanned readmissions in this pediatric oncology. METHODS: We retrieved 32 667 encounters from 10 418 pediatric patients with a neoplastic condition from 16 hospitals in the Cerner Health Facts Database and built a mixed-effects model with patients nested within hospitals for inference on 75% of the data and reserved the remaining as an independent test dataset. RESULTS: The mixed-effects model indicated that patients with acute lymphoid leukemia (in relapse), neuroblastoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, or bone/cartilage cancer have increased odds of readmission. The number of cancer medications taken by the patient and the administration of chemotherapy were associated with increased odds of readmission for all cancer types. Wilms Tumor had a significant interaction with administration of chemotherapy, indicating that the risk due to chemotherapy is exacerbated in patients with Wilms Tumor. A second two-way interaction between recent history of chemotherapy treatment and infections was associated with increased odds of readmission. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (and corresponding 95% confidence interval) of the mixed-effects model was 0.714 (0.702, 0.725) on the independent test dataset. CONCLUSION: Readmission risk in oncology is modified by the specific type of cancer, current and past administration of chemotherapy, and increased health care utilization. Oncology-specific models can provide decision support where model built on other or mixed population has failed.