Life-time cumulative activity burden is associated with symptomatic heart failure and arrhythmic risk in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sports-related physical activity is associated with an increased risk of ventricular dysfunction and arrhythmias in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). However, there are currently no standardized strategies for activity assessment. Thresholds for harmful levels of physical activity suggested by previous studies vary substantially and neither life-time activity burden nor continuous modelling approaches were considered. METHODS: For this single-center retrospective study, ARVC patients were interviewed to assess sports-related and non-sports-related physical activity between the age of 10 years and last follow-up. Activity data were aggregated to median metabolic equivalent of task - hours (METh) per week for each year. The association between cumulative physical activity burden and clinical study endpoints was investigated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: 124 patients (median age: 39.5 years, 48% male) were included in the analysis, of whom 93 had been diagnosed with definite ARVC. Study participants reported a median overall activity of 202.3 METh/week, with 38.7 METh/week attributed to sports-related activity. In the continuous model, cumulative overall activity burden was associated with the occurrence of symptomatic heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 METh/week: 1.017, 95%CI [1.003, 1.032], p=0.015), sustained ventricular tachycardia (HR: 1.021, 95%CI [1.006, 1.037], p=0.007), and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator interventions (HR: 1.017, 95%CI [1.000, 1.034], p=0.048). This finding was consistent when considering sports-related activity separately as a predictor variable, whereas the resulting hazard ratios did not show a significant association for non-sports-related physical activity. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates for the first time that cumulative physical activity as a continuous predictor variable is associated with symptomatic heart failure and arrhythmic risk in ARVC patients. Collaborative research is required in larger cohorts to investigate the influence of potential confounders on event occurrence and to develop threshold recommendations for clinical practice.

[Factors influencing hospital readmission rates in alcohol use disorder]. / Einflussfaktoren auf die Rehospitalisierungsrate bei Alkoholabhängigkeit.

BACKGROUND: According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, the diagnosis of alcohol use disorder (AUD) (F 10) is the second most common main diagnosis for hospital treatment. Those affected by this disorder are often repeatedly hospitalized at short intervals due to relapses; however, little is known about the factors that influence readmission rates after initial treatment. AIM OF THE STUDY: The aim of this retrospective analysis is to analyze the effects of treatment type (qualified withdrawal treatment (QE) versus physical detoxification) and discharge mode on the probability of readmission in alcohol-dependent patients after inpatient treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from 981 male and female alcohol-dependent patients who completed either qualified withdrawal treatment (QE) (68% men; mean age 47.6 years) or inpatient detoxification (74% men; mean age 48.0 years) were analyzed. Predictors of regular discharge were determined separately for both types of treatment using stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS: Patients who had completed a qualified withdrawal treatment were significantly more likely to be regularly discharged. Regular completion of the qualified withdrawal treatment (QE) led to a relative reduction in the readmission rate of 25.64% within 1 year compared to a physical detoxification. CONCLUSION: In order to prevent readmission and chronic courses of alcohol use disorder (AUD), qualified withdrawal treatment should always be recommended to affected patients instead of physical detoxification. Aktuelle Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes für das Jahr 2022 zeigen, dass die Diagnose "Psychische und Verhaltensstörungen durch Alkohol (F 10.X)" die zweithäufigste Hauptdiagnose bei Krankenhausbehandlungen darstellt [13]. Im Gesundheitssystem entstehen durch dieses Erkrankungsbild und seine somatischen und psychischen Folgeerkrankungen jährlich ca. 10 Mrd. € direkte Kosten [13]. Dieser Sachverhalt wird dadurch kontrastiert, dass die Krankenkassen die qualifizierte Entzugsbehandlung (QE) als leitliniengerechte Goldstandardtherapie [4] wiederholt infrage stellen [10].

[Long-term courses of alcohol dependence]. / Langzeitverläufe der Alkoholabhängigkeit.

BACKGROUND: Descriptions of long-term histories of alcohol dependence provide insight into the etiology, prevention and care. OBJECTIVE: Report of empirical findings about the development into and remission from alcohol dependence. METHOD: Narrative literature review, analysis of findings from cohort studies in the general population. RESULTS: Risk factors provide the opportunity to estimate increased probabilities of developing an alcohol dependence. Adolescents disclosed symptoms of alcohol dependence within 8 years after the first alcohol consumption. Alcohol dependence is related to a life expectancy 17.6 years fewer than in the general population. Data of a general population sample revealed a risk of early death 2.8 times higher than among people without mental disorders. The severity of alcohol dependence was shown to be a predictor of premature death. Nicotine dependence can add to the shortening of life in addition to alcohol dependence. Among the alcohol dependent residents in a general population sample, 90.2% did not have utilized detoxification treatment that included motivational treatment and 78.4% did not have utilized standard detoxification treatment in a psychiatric treatment facility. Remission without formal help has been proven. It is the main route of remission. CONCLUSION: To reduce unfavorable courses of alcohol dependence, prevention and treatment should be focused more on the needs in the general population. In psychiatric and other medical routine care, screening and an appropriate brief intervention should be carried out.

Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia in Patients Suffering Cardiogenic Shock.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiogenic shock (CS) is associated with high mortality. Patients treated for CS mostly require heparin therapy, which may be associated with complications such as heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT). HIT represents a serious condition associated with platelet decline and increased hypercoagulability and remains a poorly researched field in intensive care medicine. Primary purpose of this study was to: 1) determine HIT prevalence in CS, 2) assess the performance of common diagnostic tests for the workup of HIT, and 3) compare outcomes in CS patients with excluded and confirmed HIT. DESIGN: Retrospective dual-center study including adult patients 18 years old or older with diagnosed CS and suspected HIT from January 2010 to November 2022. SETTING: Cardiac ICU at the Ludwig-Maximilians University hospital in Munich and the university hospital of Bonn. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: In this retrospective analysis, adult patients with diagnosed CS and suspected HIT were included. Differences in baseline characteristics, mortality, neurologic and safety outcomes between patients with excluded and confirmed HIT were evaluated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In cases of suspected HIT, positive screening antibodies were detected in 159 of 2808 patients (5.7%). HIT was confirmed via positive functional assay in 57 of 2808 patients, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 2.0%. The positive predictive value for anti-platelet factor 4/heparin screening antibodies was 35.8%. Total in-hospital mortality (58.8% vs. 57.9%; p > 0.999), 1-month mortality (47.1% vs. 43.9%; p = 0.781), and 12-month mortality (58.8% vs. 59.6%; p > 0.999) were similar between patients with excluded and confirmed HIT, respectively. Furthermore, no significant difference in neurologic outcome among survivors was found between groups (Cerebral Performance Category [CPC] score 1: 8.8% vs. 8.8%; p > 0.999 and CPC 2: 7.8% vs. 12.3%; p = 0.485). CONCLUSIONS: HIT was a rare complication in CS patients treated with unfractionated heparin and was not associated with increased mortality. Also, HIT confirmation was not associated with worse neurologic outcome in survivors. Future studies should aim at developing more precise, standardized, and cost-effective strategies to diagnose HIT and prevent complications.

Addressing researcher degrees of freedom through minP adjustment.

When different researchers study the same research question using the same dataset they may obtain different and potentially even conflicting results. This is because there is often substantial flexibility in researchers' analytical choices, an issue also referred to as "researcher degrees of freedom". Combined with selective reporting of the smallest p-value or largest effect, researcher degrees of freedom may lead to an increased rate of false positive and overoptimistic results. In this paper, we address this issue by formalizing the multiplicity of analysis strategies as a multiple testing problem. As the test statistics of different analysis strategies are usually highly dependent, a naive approach such as the Bonferroni correction is inappropriate because it leads to an unacceptable loss of power. Instead, we propose using the "minP" adjustment method, which takes potential test dependencies into account and approximates the underlying null distribution of the minimal p-value through a permutation-based procedure. This procedure is known to achieve more power than simpler approaches while ensuring a weak control of the family-wise error rate. We illustrate our approach for addressing researcher degrees of freedom by applying it to a study on the impact of perioperative p a O 2 on post-operative complications after neurosurgery. A total of 48 analysis strategies are considered and adjusted using the minP procedure. This approach allows to selectively report the result of the analysis strategy yielding the most convincing evidence, while controlling the type 1 error-and thus the risk of publishing false positive results that may not be replicable.

The role of coronary artery disease in lung transplantation: a propensity-matched analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Candidate selection for lung transplantation (LuTx) is pivotal to ensure individual patient benefit as well as optimal donor organ allocation. The impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) on post-transplant outcomes remains controversial. We provide comprehensive data on the relevance of CAD for short- and long-term outcomes following LuTx and identify risk factors for mortality. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed all adult patients (≥ 18 years) undergoing primary and isolated LuTx between January 2000 and August 2021 at the LMU University Hospital transplant center. Using 1:1 propensity score matching, 98 corresponding pairs of LuTx patients with and without relevant CAD were identified. RESULTS: Among 1,003 patients having undergone LuTx, 104 (10.4%) had relevant CAD at baseline. There were no significant differences in in-hospital mortality (8.2% vs. 8.2%, p > 0.999) as well as overall survival (HR 0.90, 95%CI [0.61, 1.32], p = 0.800) between matched CAD and non-CAD patients. Similarly, cardiovascular events such as myocardial infarction (7.1% CAD vs. 2.0% non-CAD, p = 0.170), revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention (5.1% vs. 1.0%, p = 0.212), and stroke (2.0% vs. 6.1%, p = 0.279), did not differ statistically between both matched groups. 7.1% in the CAD group and 2.0% in the non-CAD group (p = 0.078) died from cardiovascular causes. Cox regression analysis identified age at transplantation (HR 1.02, 95%CI [1.01, 1.04], p < 0.001), elevated bilirubin (HR 1.33, 95%CI [1.15, 1.54], p < 0.001), obstructive lung disease (HR 1.43, 95%CI [1.01, 2.02], p = 0.041), decreased forced vital capacity (HR 0.99, 95%CI [0.99, 1.00], p = 0.042), necessity of reoperation (HR 3.51, 95%CI [2.97, 4.14], p < 0.001) and early transplantation time (HR 0.97, 95%CI [0.95, 0.99], p = 0.001) as risk factors for all-cause mortality, but not relevant CAD (HR 0.96, 95%CI [0.71, 1.29], p = 0.788). Double lung transplant was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.65, 95%CI [0.52, 0.80], p < 0.001), but higher in-hospital mortality (OR 2.04, 95%CI [1.04, 4.01], p = 0.039). CONCLUSION: In this cohort, relevant CAD was not associated with worse outcomes and should therefore not be considered a contraindication for LuTx. Nonetheless, cardiovascular events in CAD patients highlight the necessity of control of cardiovascular risk factors and a structured cardiac follow-up.

Raising awareness of uncertain choices in empirical data analysis: A teaching concept toward replicable research practices.

Throughout their education and when reading the scientific literature, students may get the impression that there is a unique and correct analysis strategy for every data analysis task and that this analysis strategy will always yield a significant and noteworthy result. This expectation conflicts with a growing realization that there is a multiplicity of possible analysis strategies in empirical research, which will lead to overoptimism and nonreplicable research findings if it is combined with result-dependent selective reporting. Here, we argue that students are often ill-equipped for real-world data analysis tasks and unprepared for the dangers of selectively reporting the most promising results. We present a seminar course intended for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students of data analysis fields such as statistics, data science, or bioinformatics that aims to increase the awareness of uncertain choices in the analysis of empirical data and present ways to deal with these choices through theoretical modules and practical hands-on sessions.

Associations of Menstrual Cycle and Progesterone-to-Estradiol Ratio With Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Use Disorder: A Sex-Separated Multicenter Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) constitutes a critical public health issue and has sex-specific characteristics. Initial evidence suggests that progesterone and estradiol might reduce or increase alcohol intake, respectively. However, there is a need for a better understanding of how the menstrual cycle in females and the ratio of progesterone to estradiol in females and males influence alcohol use patterns in individuals with AUD. METHODS: In this sex-separated multicenter longitudinal study, the authors analyzed 12-month data on real-life alcohol use (from 21,460 smartphone entries), menstrual cycle, and serum progesterone-to-estradiol ratios (from 667 blood samples at four individual study visits) in 74 naturally cycling females and 278 males with AUD between 2020 and 2022, using generalized and general linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: Menstrual cycle phases were significantly associated with binge drinking and progesterone-to-estradiol ratio. During the late luteal phase, females showed a lower predicted binge drinking probability of 13% and a higher predicted marginal mean of progesterone-to-estradiol ratio of 95 compared with during the menstrual, follicular, and ovulatory phases (binge drinking probability and odds ratios vs. late luteal phase, respectively: 17%, odds ratio=1.340, 95% CI=1.031, 1.742; 19%, odds ratio=1.523, 95% CI=1.190, 1.949; and 20%, odds ratio=1.683, 95% CI=1.285, 2.206; difference in progesterone-to-estradiol ratios, respectively: -61, 95% CI=-105.492, -16.095; -78, 95% CI=-119.322, -37.039; and -71, 95% CI=-114.568, -27.534). In males, a higher progesterone-to-estradiol ratio was related to lower probabilities of binge drinking and of any alcohol use, with a 10-unit increase in the hormone ratio resulting in odds ratios of 0.918 (95% CI=0.843, 0.999) and 0.914 (95% CI=0.845, 0.988), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These ecologically valid findings suggest that high progesterone-to-estradiol ratios can have a protective effect against problematic alcohol use in females and males with AUD, highlighting the progesterone-to-estradiol ratio as a promising treatment target. Moreover, the results indicate that females with AUD may benefit from menstrual cycle phase-tailored treatments.

Biological aging markers in blood and brain tissue indicate age acceleration in alcohol use disorder.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with increased mortality and morbidity risk. A reason for this could be accelerated biological aging, which is strongly influenced by disease processes such as inflammation. As recent studies of AUD show changes in DNA methylation and gene expression in neuroinflammation-related pathways in the brain, biological aging represents a potentially important construct for understanding the adverse effects of substance use disorders. Epigenetic clocks have shown accelerated aging in blood samples from individuals with AUD. However, no systematic evaluation of biological age measures in AUD across different tissues and brain regions has been undertaken. METHODS: As markers of biological aging (BioAge markers), we assessed Levine's and Horvath's epigenetic clocks, DNA methylation telomere length (DNAmTL), telomere length (TL), and mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNAcn) in postmortem brain samples from Brodmann Area 9 (BA9), caudate nucleus, and ventral striatum (N = 63-94), and in whole blood samples (N = 179) of individuals with and without AUD. To evaluate the association between AUD status and BioAge markers, we performed linear regression analyses while adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: The majority of BioAge markers were significantly associated with chronological age in all samples. Levine's epigenetic clock and DNAmTL were indicative of accelerated biological aging in AUD in BA9 and whole blood samples, while Horvath's showed the opposite effect in BA9. No significant association of AUD with TL and mtDNAcn was detected. Measured TL and DNAmTL showed only small correlations in blood and none in brain. CONCLUSIONS: The present study is the first to simultaneously investigate epigenetic clocks, telomere length, and mtDNAcn in postmortem brain and whole blood samples in individuals with AUD. We found evidence for accelerated biological aging in AUD in blood and brain, as measured by Levine's epigenetic clock, and DNAmTL. Additional studies of different tissues from the same individuals are needed to draw valid conclusions about the congruence of biological aging in blood and brain.

Cue-exposure treatment influences resting-state functional connectivity-a randomized controlled fMRI study in alcohol use disorder.

RATIONALE: Cue-exposure therapy (CET) consists of exposing patients to the cause of their affliction in a controlled environment and after psychological preparation. Ever since it was conceived, it has been suggested as a treatment for different types of behavioural impairments, from anxiety disorders to substance abuse. In the field of addictive behaviour, many different findings have been shown regarding the effectiveness of this therapy. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the underlying neurobiological mechanisms of the effects of CET in patients with alcohol use disorder using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). METHODS: In a randomized, controlled study, we examined patients after inpatient detoxification as well as healthy controls. Patients underwent nine sessions of CET spaced over 3 weeks. Rs-fMRI was conducted before treatment and 3 weeks after treatment onset in patients, healthy controls received only one rs-fMRI measurement. The final participant sample with complete data included 35 patients in the CET group, 17 patients in the treatment-as-usual group, and 43 HCs. RESULTS: Our results show differences in the Salience Network when comparing the CET group to the treatment-as-usual group (TAU). Functional connectivity between the anterior cingulate Cortex (ACC) and the insula was increased after CET, whereas it was decreased from ACC to the putamen and globus pallidus. Further, increased connectivity with the precuneus was found in the dorsal attention network after cue exposure treatment. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that cue exposure therapy changes the resting-state brain connectivity with additional effects to the standard psychotherapy treatment. Hence, our study results suggest why including CET in standard therapies might improve the preparation of patients in front of daily situations.

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to account for evidence and uncertainty in the modeling of infectious diseases: An application to COVID-19.

Infectious disease models can serve as critical tools to predict the development of cases and associated healthcare demand and to determine the set of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that is most effective in slowing the spread of an infectious agent. Current approaches to estimate NPI effects typically focus on relatively short time periods and either on the number of reported cases, deaths, intensive care occupancy, or hospital occupancy as a single indicator of disease transmission. In this work, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates multiple outcomes and complementary sources of information in the estimation of the true and unknown number of infections while accounting for time-varying underreporting and weekday-specific delays in reported cases and deaths, allowing us to estimate the number of infections on a daily basis rather than having to smooth the data. To address dynamic changes occurring over long periods of time, we account for the spread of new variants, seasonality, and time-varying differences in host susceptibility. We implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct Bayesian inference and illustrate the proposed approach with data on COVID-19 from 20 European countries. The approach shows good performance on simulated data and produces posterior predictions that show a good fit to reported cases, deaths, hospital, and intensive care occupancy.

Stress-Induced Sensitization of Insula Activation Predicts Alcohol Craving and Alcohol Use in Alcohol Use Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Stress and alcohol cues trigger alcohol consumption and relapse in alcohol use disorder. However, the neurobiological processes underlying their interaction are not well understood. Thus, we conducted a randomized, controlled neuroimaging study to investigate the effects of psychosocial stress on neural cue reactivity and addictive behaviors. METHODS: Neural alcohol cue reactivity was assessed in 91 individuals with alcohol use disorder using a validated functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) task. Activation patterns were measured twice, at baseline and during a second fMRI session, prior to which participants were assigned to psychosocial stress (experimental condition) or a matched control condition or physical exercise (control conditions). Together with fMRI data, alcohol craving and cortisol levels were assessed, and alcohol use data were collected during a 12-month follow-up. Analyses tested the effects of psychosocial stress on neural cue reactivity and associations with cortisol levels, craving, and alcohol use. RESULTS: Compared with both control conditions, psychosocial stress elicited higher alcohol cue-induced activation in the left anterior insula (familywise error-corrected p < .05) and a stress- and cue-specific dynamic increase in insula activation over time (F22,968 = 2.143, p = .007), which was predicted by higher cortisol levels during the experimental intervention (r = 0.310, false discovery rate-corrected p = .016). Cue-induced insula activation was positively correlated with alcohol craving during fMRI (r = 0.262, false discovery rate-corrected p = .032) and alcohol use during follow-up (r = 0.218, false discovery rate-corrected p = .046). CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate a stress-induced sensitization of cue-induced activation in the left insula as a neurobiological correlate of the effects of psychosocial stress on alcohol craving and alcohol use in alcohol use disorder, which likely reflects changes in salience attribution and goal-directed behavior.

Alcohol does not influence trust in others or oxytocin, but increases positive affect and risk-taking: a randomized, controlled, within-subject trial.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption to facilitate social interaction is an important drinking motive. Here, we tested whether alcohol influences trust in others via modulation of oxytocin and/or androgens. We also aimed at confirming previously shown alcohol effects on positive affect and risk-taking, because of their role in facilitating social interaction. METHODS: This randomized, controlled, within-subject, parallel group, alcohol-challenge experiment investigated the effects of alcohol (versus water, both mixed with orange juice) on perceived trustworthiness via salivary oxytocin (primary and secondary endpoint) as well as testosterone, dihydrotestosterone, positive affect, and risk-taking (additional endpoints). We compared 56 male participants in the alcohol condition (1.07 ± 0.18 per mille blood alcohol concentration) with 20 in the control condition. RESULTS: The group (alcohol versus control condition) × time (before [versus during] versus after drinking) interactions were not significantly associated with perceived trustworthiness (η2 < 0.001) or oxytocin (η2 = 0.003). Bayes factors provided also substantial evidence for the absence of these effects (BF01 = 3.65; BF01 = 7.53). The group × time interactions were related to dihydrotestosterone (η2 = 0.018 with an increase in the control condition) as well as positive affect and risk-taking (η2 = 0.027 and 0.007 with increases in the alcohol condition), but not significantly to testosterone. DISCUSSION: The results do not verify alcohol effects on perceived trustworthiness or oxytocin in male individuals. However, they indicate that alcohol (versus control) might inhibit an increase in dihydrotestosterone and confirm that alcohol amplifies positive affect and risk-taking. This provides novel mechanistic insight into social facilitation as an alcohol-drinking motive.

Explaining the optimistic performance evaluation of newly proposed methods: A cross-design validation experiment.

The constant development of new data analysis methods in many fields of research is accompanied by an increasing awareness that these new methods often perform better in their introductory paper than in subsequent comparison studies conducted by other researchers. We attempt to explain this discrepancy by conducting a systematic experiment that we call "cross-design validation of methods". In the experiment, we select two methods designed for the same data analysis task, reproduce the results shown in each paper, and then reevaluate each method based on the study design (i.e., datasets, competing methods, and evaluation criteria) that was used to show the abilities of the other method. We conduct the experiment for two data analysis tasks, namely cancer subtyping using multiomic data and differential gene expression analysis. Three of the four methods included in the experiment indeed perform worse when they are evaluated on the new study design, which is mainly caused by the different datasets. Apart from illustrating the many degrees of freedom existing in the assessment of a method and their effect on its performance, our experiment suggests that the performance discrepancies between original and subsequent papers may not only be caused by the nonneutrality of the authors proposing the new method but also by differences regarding the level of expertise and field of application. Authors of new methods should thus focus not only on a transparent and extensive evaluation but also on comprehensive method documentation that enables the correct use of their methods in subsequent studies.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk.

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach to study the association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of Covid-19 in Germany.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are community mitigation strategies, aimed at reducing the spread of illnesses like the coronavirus pandemic, without relying on pharmaceutical drug treatments. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of different NPIs across sixteen states of Germany, for a time period of 21 months of the pandemic. We used a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines different sub-models and merges information from complementary sources, to estimate the true and unknown number of infections. In this framework, we used data on reported cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit occupancy, and deaths to estimate the effect of NPIs. The list of NPIs includes: "contact restriction (up to 5 people)", "strict contact restriction", "curfew", "events permitted up to 100 people", "mask requirement in shopping malls", "restaurant closure", "restaurants permitted only with test", "school closure" and "general behavioral changes". We found a considerable reduction in the instantaneous reproduction number by "general behavioral changes", "strict contact restriction", "restaurants permitted only with test", "contact restriction (up to 5 people)", "restaurant closure" and "curfew". No association with school closures could be found. This study suggests that some public health measures, including general behavioral changes, strict contact restrictions, and restaurants permitted only with tests are associated with containing the Covid-19 pandemic. Future research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of NPIs in the context of Covid-19 vaccination.

Effectiveness of Reducing Craving in Alcohol Use Disorder Using a Serious Game (SALIENCE): Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) has become a major global health problem. Therapy for this condition is still a great challenge. Recently, it has become increasingly evident that computer-based training is a valuable addition to the treatment of addictive disorders. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the web-based serious game SALIENCE (Stop Alcohol in Everyday Life-New Choices and Evaluations) as an add-on therapy for AUD. It combines the cue-exposure therapy approach with elements of decision-making training, enhanced by interactive panoramic images. The effects of SALIENCE training on levels of craving, attention, and cognitive bias are investigated. METHODS: In a randomized controlled trial, 62 participants with AUD undergoing 3 weeks of an extended alcohol detoxification program were randomly allocated to an intervention and a control group. A total of 49 individuals (mean age 44.04 y; 17/49, 35% female) completed all sessions and were included in the analysis. Only pretreatment data were available from the other 13 patients. Participants answered questionnaires related to alcohol consumption and craving and completed neuropsychological tasks at the beginning of the study and 2 weeks later to evaluate levels of attention and cognitive biases. During the 2-week period, 27 of the participants additionally performed the SALIENCE training for 30 minutes 3 times a week, for a total of 6 sessions. RESULTS: We observed a significant decrease in craving in both groups: the control group (mean 15.59, SD 8.02 on the first examination day vs mean 13.18, SD 8.38 on the second examination day) and the intervention group (mean 15.19, SD 6.71 on the first examination day vs mean 13.30, SD 8.47 on the second examination day; F1,47=4.31; P=.04), whereas the interaction effect was not statistically significant (F1,47=0.06; P=.80). Results of the multiple linear regression controlling for individual differences between participants indicated a significantly greater decrease in craving (ß=4.12; t36=2.34; P=.03) with the SALIENCE intervention. Participants with lower drinking in negative situations reduced their craving (ß=.38; t36=3.01; P=.005) more than people with higher drinking in negative situations. CONCLUSIONS: The general effectiveness of SALIENCE training as an add-on therapy in reducing alcohol craving was not confirmed. Nevertheless, taking into account individual differences (gender, duration of dependence, stress, anxiety, and drinking behavior in different situations), it was shown that SALIENCE training resulted in a larger reduction in craving than without. Notably, individuals who rarely consume alcohol due to negative affect profited the most from SALIENCE training. In addition to the beneficial effect of SALIENCE training, these findings highlight the relevance of individualized therapy for AUD, adapted to personal circumstances such as drinking motivation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03765476; https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT03765476.