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1.
Arch Toxicol ; 2024 Apr 30.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38689008

The ongoing transition from chemical hazard and risk assessment based on animal studies to assessment relying mostly on non-animal data, requires a multitude of novel experimental methods, and this means that guidance on the validation and standardisation of test methods intended for international applicability and acceptance, needs to be updated. These so-called new approach methodologies (NAMs) must be applicable to the chemical regulatory domain and provide reliable data which are relevant to hazard and risk assessment. Confidence in and use of NAMs will depend on their reliability and relevance, and both are thoroughly assessed by validation. Validation is, however, a time- and resource-demanding process. As updates on validation guidance are conducted, the valuable components must be kept: Reliable data are and will remain fundamental. In 2016, the scientific community was made aware of the general crisis in scientific reproducibility-validated methods must not fall into this. In this commentary, we emphasize the central importance of ring trials in the validation of experimental methods. Ring trials are sometimes considered to be a major hold-up with little value added to the validation. Here, we clarify that ring trials are indispensable to demonstrate the robustness and reproducibility of a new method. Further, that methods do fail in method transfer and ring trials due to different stumbling blocks, but these provide learnings to ensure the robustness of new methods. At the same time, we identify what it would take to perform ring trials more efficiently, and how ring trials fit into the much-needed update to the guidance on the validation of NAMs.

2.
Behav Sci (Basel) ; 14(3)2024 Feb 21.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38540459

In the contemporary globalized landscape characterized by international and intercultural decision-making processes, interconnected supply chains, and diverse customer relations, susceptibility to biases and heuristics poses a substantial threat to the efficiency of decision making. This research explores the relatively understudied influence of culture on individuals' susceptibility to concepts derived from behavioral economics. Employing the Individual Cultural Values Scale (CVSCALE), we examine the impact of culture on the allure of choice, mental accounting, and overconfidence among 837 participants from Australia (AU), China (CN), Germany (GE), and the United States (US) through logistic regression analysis. At the individual level, discernible interactions between power-distance, allure of choice, and overconfidence are observed. On the national scale, power-distance (AU, US), uncertainty avoidance (US), and masculinity (CN) significantly impact the allure of choice, while overconfidence is influenced by power-distance (US) and masculinity (US). Our analysis shows that culture plays a pivotal role in shaping susceptibility to biases and heuristics, thereby influencing decision-making processes. The findings advocate for a culturally differentiated approach to behavioral economics, emphasizing the need to tailor strategies and interventions based on cultural nuances.

3.
ALTEX ; 41(2): 273-281, 2024.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38215352

Both because of the shortcomings of existing risk assessment methodologies, as well as newly available tools to predict hazard and risk with machine learning approaches, there has been an emerging emphasis on probabilistic risk assessment. Increasingly sophisticated AI models can be applied to a plethora of exposure and hazard data to obtain not only predictions for particular endpoints but also to estimate the uncertainty of the risk assessment outcome. This provides the basis for a shift from deterministic to more probabilistic approaches but comes at the cost of an increased complexity of the process as it requires more resources and human expertise. There are still challenges to overcome before a probabilistic paradigm is fully embraced by regulators. Based on an earlier white paper (Maertens et al., 2022), a workshop discussed the prospects, challenges and path forward for implementing such AI-based probabilistic hazard assessment. Moving forward, we will see the transition from categorized into probabilistic and dose-dependent hazard outcomes, the application of internal thresholds of toxicological concern for data-poor substances, the acknowledgement of user-friendly open-source software, a rise in the expertise of toxicologists required to understand and interpret artificial intelligence models, and the honest communication of uncertainty in risk assessment to the public.


Probabilistic risk assessment, initially from engineering, is applied in toxicology to understand chemical-related hazards and their consequences. In toxicology, uncertainties abound ­ unclear molecular events, varied proposed outcomes, and population-level assessments for issues like neurodevelopmental disorders. Establishing links between chemical exposures and diseases, especially rare events like birth defects, often demands extensive studies. Existing methods struggle with subtle effects or those affecting specific groups. Future risk assessments must address developmental disease origins, presenting challenges beyond current capabilities. The intricate nature of many toxicological processes, lack of consensus on mechanisms and outcomes, and the need for nuanced population-level assessments highlight the complexities in understanding and quantifying risks associated with chemical exposures in the field of toxicology.


Artificial Intelligence , Toxicology , Animals , Humans , Animal Testing Alternatives , Risk Assessment/methods , Uncertainty , Toxicology/methods
4.
J Cataract Refract Surg ; 50(3): 230-235, 2024 Mar 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37847149

PURPOSE: To compare the accuracy of toric intraocular lens (IOL) alignment between femtosecond laser-assisted capsular marking and digital marking. SETTING: Ruhr University Eye Clinic, Bochum, Germany. DESIGN: Prospective clinical trial. METHODS: In this study, 28 eyes of 23 patients, who underwent femtosecond laser-assisted cataract surgery with implantation of a toric IOL, were included. Intraoperatively, both femtosecond laser-assisted capsular marking and digital marking were applied simultaneously and compared in every case. The toric IOL was aligned to the capsular markings. Postoperatively, the axis of the capsular markings and toric IOL alignment was examined. Visual acuity and refractive outcomes were evaluated. RESULTS: Both alignment methods were performed without intraoperative complications in all cases. 25 eyes were included in the final analysis. Misalignment was significantly lower with femtosecond laser-assisted capsular marking than with digital marking (1.71 ± 1.25 degrees vs 2.64 ± 1.70 degrees, P = .016). Deviation from the target axis of the toric IOL was 1.62 ± 1.24 degrees 4 to 6 weeks postoperatively. Postoperative uncorrected distance visual acuity was 0.14 ± 0.13 logMAR, and residual astigmatism was 0.3 ± 0.23 diopter (D) with an astigmatism ≤0.5 D in 93% of eyes. CONCLUSIONS: Both methods showed excellent results for the alignment of toric IOLs. However, femtosecond laser-assisted capsular marking was significantly more precise than digital marking and showed good refractive results. In addition, capsular marking offers the possibility to avoid parallax error and evaluating postoperative IOL rotation.


Astigmatism , Cataract Extraction , Cataract , Lenses, Intraocular , Phacoemulsification , Humans , Lens Implantation, Intraocular/methods , Prospective Studies , Astigmatism/surgery , Astigmatism/complications , Cataract Extraction/methods , Refraction, Ocular , Cataract/complications
5.
J Appl Toxicol ; 44(4): 510-525, 2024 Apr.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37897225

The Epidermal Sensitization Assay (EpiSensA) is a reconstructed human epidermis (RhE)-based gene expression assay for predicting the skin sensitization potential of chemicals. Since the RhE model is covered by a stratified stratum corneum, various kinds of test chemicals, including lipophilic ones and pre-/pro-haptens, can be tested with a route of exposure akin to an in vivo assay and human exposure. This article presents the results of a formally managed validation study of the EpiSensA that was carried out by three participating laboratories. The purpose of this validation study was to assess transferability of the EpiSensA to new laboratories along with its within- (WLR) and between-laboratory reproducibility (BLR). The validation study was organized into two independent stages. As demonstrated during the first stage, where three sensitizers and one non-sensitizer were correctly predicted by all participating laboratories, the EpiSensA was successfully transferred to all three participating laboratories. For Phase I of the second stage, each participating laboratory performed three experiments with an identical set of 15 coded test chemicals resulting in WLR of 93.3%, 93.3%, and 86.7%, respectively. Furthermore, when the results from the 15 test chemicals were combined with those of the additional 12 chemicals tested in Phase II of the second stage, the BLR for 27 test chemicals was 88.9%. Moreover, the predictive capacity among the three laboratories showed 92.6% sensitivity, 63.0% specificity, 82.7% accuracy, and 77.8% balanced accuracy based on murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) results. Overall, this validation study concluded that EpiSensA is easily transferable and sufficiently robust for assessing the skin sensitization potential of chemicals.


Allergens , Dermatitis, Allergic Contact , Humans , Animals , Mice , Reproducibility of Results , Allergens/toxicity , Epidermis , Skin , Haptens/toxicity , Local Lymph Node Assay , Animal Testing Alternatives
6.
Syst Rev ; 12(1): 166, 2023 09 14.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37710304

BACKGROUND: Isoflurane is used as an inhalation anesthetic in medical, paramedical, and veterinary practice. Epidemiological studies suggest an increased risk of miscarriages and malformations at birth related to maternal exposure to isoflurane and other inhalation anesthetics. However, these studies cannot be used to derive an occupational exposure level (OEL), because exposure was not determined quantitatively and other risk factors such as co-exposures to other inhalation anesthetics and other work-related factors may also have contributed to the observed adverse outcomes. The aim of this systematic review project is to assess all available evidence on the effects of isoflurane in studies of controlled exposures in laboratory animals to derive a health-based recommended OEL. METHODS: A comprehensive search strategy was developed to retrieve all animal studies addressing isoflurane exposure from PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science. Title-abstract screening will be performed by machine learning, and full-text screening by one reviewer. Discrepancies will be resolved by discussion. We will include primary research in healthy, sexually mature (non human) vertebrates of single exposure to isoflurane. Studies describing combined exposure and treatments with > = 1 vol% isoflurane will be excluded. Subsequently, details regarding study identification, study design, animal model, and intervention will be summarized. All relevant exposure characteristics and outcomes will be extracted. The risk of bias will be assessed by two independent reviewers using an adapted version of the SYRCLE's risk of bias tool and an addition of the OHAT tool. For all outcomes for which dose-response curves can be derived, the benchmark dose (BMD) approach will be used to establish a point of departure for deriving a recommended health-based recommended OEL for 8 h (workshift exposure) and for 15 min (short-term exposure). DISCUSSION: Included studies should be sufficiently sensitive to detect the adverse health outcomes of interest. Uncertainties in the extrapolation from animals to humans will be addressed using assessment factor. These factors are justified in accordance with current practice in chemical risk assessment. A panel of experts will be involved to reach consensus decisions regarding significant steps in this project, such as determination of the critical effects and how to extrapolate from animals to humans. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022308978.


Anesthetics, Inhalation , Isoflurane , Occupational Exposure , Animals , Infant, Newborn , Female , Humans , Isoflurane/adverse effects , Anesthetics, Inhalation/toxicity , Systematic Reviews as Topic , Animals, Laboratory , Occupational Exposure/adverse effects
7.
ALTEX ; 40(3): 439-451, 2023.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36919358

Cosmetic products must be safe for their intended use. Regulatory bans on animal testing for new ingredients have resulted in a shift towards the use of new approach methodologies (NAMs) such as in silico predictions and in chemico / in vitro data. Defined approaches (DAs) have been developed to interpret combinations of NAMs to provide information on skin sensitization hazard and potency, three having been adopted within OECD Test Guideline 497. However, the challenge remains as to how DAs can be used to derive a quantitative point of departure for use in next generation risk assessment (NGRA). Here we provide an update to our previously published NGRA framework and present two hypothetical consumer risk assessment scenarios (rinse-off and leave-on) on one case study ingredient. Diethanolamine (DEA) was selected as the case study ingredient based on the existing NAM information demonstrating differences with respect to the outcomes from in silico predictions and in chemico / in vitro data. Seven DAs were applied, and these differences resulted in divergent DA outcomes and reduced confidence with respect to the hazard potential and potency predictions. Risk assessment conclusion for the rinse-off exposure led to an overall decision of safe for all applied DAs. Risk assessment conclusion for the higher leave-on exposure was safe when based on some DAs but unsafe based on others. The reasons for this were evaluated as well as the inherent uncertainty from the use of each NAM and DA in the risk assessment, enabling further refinement of our NGRA framework.


Animal Testing Alternatives , Cosmetics , Animals , Skin , Risk Assessment , Cosmetics/toxicity
9.
Evid Based Toxicol ; 1(1): 1-15, 2023 Aug 31.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38264543

This protocol describes the design and development of a tool for evaluation of the internal validity of in vitro studies, which is needed to include the data as evidence in systematic reviews and chemical risk assessments. The tool will be designed specifically to be applied to cell culture studies, including, but not restricted to, studies meeting the new approach methodology (NAM) definition. The tool is called INVITES-IN (IN VITro Experimental Studies INternal validity). In this protocol, three of the four studies that will be performed to create the release version of INVITES-IN are described. In the first study, evaluation of existing assessment tools will be combined with focus group discussions to identify how characteristics of the design or conduct of an in vitro study can affect its internal validity. Bias domains and items considered to be of relevance for in vitro studies will be identified. In the second study, group agreement on internal validity domains and items of importance for in vitro studies will be identified via a modified Delphi methodology. In the third study, the draft version of the tool will be created, based on the data on relevance and importance of bias domains and items collected in Studies 1 and 2. A separate protocol will be prepared for the fourth study, which includes the user testing and validation of the tool, and collection of users' experience.

10.
Microsurgery ; 42(8): 817-823, 2022 Nov.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36200703

INTRODUCTION: Thorough knowledge of perforator anatomy can facilitate anterolateral thigh (ALT) free flap harvest. The selection of the right or left thigh as donor area may be supported by preoperative perforator imaging and practical considerations. The study aims to determine if the leg dominance should be taken into account, when choosing the donor thigh for ALT free flap harvest, as muscle mass and perfusion might influence perforator quantity. METHODS: ALT perforators were localized by color-coded duplex sonography and dynamic infrared thermography on both thighs within a defined 250 × 80 mm area in 24 subjects. Perforator number and thickness of subcutaneous tissue and muscle layer were compared in dominant and nondominant legs. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant difference comparing sonographically identified ALT perforator numbers and hot spot numbers in dominant and nondominant legs. Yet, we found high interindividual differences. The comparison of subcutaneous tissue and muscle thickness yielded no significant difference. CONCLUSIONS: Our study yielded no evidence for preference of the dominant or nondominant leg in ALT free flap harvesting. As we found high interindividual differences in perforator number, we suggest to rely on preoperative perforator imaging when choosing the ALT free flap donor thigh.


Free Tissue Flaps , Perforator Flap , Plastic Surgery Procedures , Humans , Thigh/surgery , Perforator Flap/surgery , Leg/surgery , Plastic Surgery Procedures/methods , Free Tissue Flaps/surgery
11.
Cancers (Basel) ; 14(14)2022 Jul 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35884441

Soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) are tumors that are challenging to treat due to their pathologic and molecular heterogeneity and their tumor biology that is not yet fully understood. Recent research indicates that dysregulation of cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) signaling pathways can be a strong driver of sarcogenesis. CDKs are enzyme forms that play a crucial role in cell-cycle control and transcription. They belong to the protein kinases group and to the serine/threonine kinases subgroup. Recently identified CDK/cyclin complexes and established CDK/cyclin complexes that regulate the cell cycle are involved in the regulation of gene expression through phosphorylation of critical components of transcription and pre-mRNA processing mechanisms. The current and continually growing body of data shows that CDKs play a decisive role in tumor development and are involved in the proliferation and growth of sarcoma cells. Since the abnormal expression or activation of large numbers of CDKs is considered to be characteristic of cancer development and progression, dysregulation of the CDK signaling pathways occurs in many subtypes of STSs. This review discusses how reversal and regulation can be achieved with new therapeutics and summarizes the current evidence from studies regarding CDK modulation for STS treatment.

12.
Science ; 377(6605): 489-495, 2022 07 29.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35901134

Our understanding of the physical principles organizing the genome in the nucleus is limited by the lack of tools to directly exert and measure forces on interphase chromosomes in vivo and probe their material nature. Here, we introduce an approach to actively manipulate a genomic locus using controlled magnetic forces inside the nucleus of a living human cell. We observed viscoelastic displacements over micrometers within minutes in response to near-piconewton forces, which are consistent with a Rouse polymer model. Our results highlight the fluidity of chromatin, with a moderate contribution of the surrounding material, revealing minor roles for cross-links and topological effects and challenging the view that interphase chromatin is a gel-like material. Our technology opens avenues for future research in areas from chromosome mechanics to genome functions.


Cell Nucleus , Chromatin , Chromosomes, Human , Interphase , Cell Nucleus/genetics , Chromatin/chemistry , Chromosomes, Human/chemistry , Genomics , Humans , Micromanipulation
13.
Regul Toxicol Pharmacol ; 131: 105169, 2022 Jun.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35447229

The assessment of skin sensitisation is a key requirement in all regulated sectors, with the European Union's regulation of cosmetic ingredients being most challenging, since it requires quantitative skin sensitisation assessment based on new approach methodologies (NAMs). To address this challenge, an in-depth and harmonised understanding of NAMs is fundamental to inform the assessment. Therefore, we compiled a database of NAMs, and in vivo (human and local lymph node assay) reference data. Here, we expanded this database with 41 substances highly relevant for cosmetic industry. These structurally different substances were tested in six NAMs (Direct Peptide Reactivity Assay, KeratinoSens™, human Cell Line Activation Test, U-SENS™, SENS-IS, Peroxidase Peptide Reactivity Assay). Our analysis revealed that the substances could be tested without technical limitations, but were generally overpredicted when compared to reference results. Reasons for this reduced predictivity were explored through pairwise NAM comparisons and association of overprediction with hydrophobicity. We conclude that more detailed understanding of how NAMs apply to a wider range of substances is needed. This would support a flexible and informed choice of NAMs to be optimally applied in the context of a next generation risk assessment framework, ultimately contributing to the characterisation and reduction of uncertainty.


Cosmetics , Dermatitis, Allergic Contact , Animal Testing Alternatives/methods , Animals , Cosmetics/toxicity , Databases, Factual , Dermatitis, Allergic Contact/etiology , Humans , Local Lymph Node Assay , Skin
14.
Toxicol In Vitro ; 82: 105371, 2022 Aug.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35487444

Irritation testing is an integral part of the biocompatibility assessment of medical devices and has historically been conducted on animals, either by direct contact or with polar and non-polar solvent extracts. In 2018 an ISO-sponsored interlaboratory validation study demonstrated that two reconstituted human epidermis (RhE) based assays, which were adapted from validated methods used for industrial chemicals, produced results essentially equivalent to those obtained with in vivo tests. This led to the publication of the ISO 10993-23:2021 standard on irritation testing, which states that RhE-based assays are now the preferred method. The 2018 validation study evaluated strong irritants, so we tested nine mild irritants (GHS Category 3), neat and spiked at different concentrations into medical device extracts, per ISO 10993-23:2021. The results substantiated the applicability of RhE-based assays for evaluating mild irritants in medical device extracts. Moreover, the 2018 validation study tested solid extractable medical device materials but did not consider non-extractable medical device materials (e.g., creams, gels, or sprays). By testing nine marketed non-extractable materials, either neat or spiked with irritants, we also confirmed that RhE-based assays are readily applicable to such medical device materials.


Irritants , Skin Irritancy Tests , Animal Testing Alternatives , Animals , Epidermis , In Vitro Techniques , Irritants/toxicity , Skin Irritancy Tests/methods
15.
Environ Int ; 162: 107109, 2022 04.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35305498

BACKGROUND: "Biological plausibility" is a concept frequently referred to in environmental and public health when researchers are evaluating how confident they are in the results and inferences of a study or evidence review. Biological plausibility is not, however, a domain of one of the most widely-used approaches for assessing the certainty of evidence (CoE) which underpins the findings of a systematic review, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) CoE Framework. Whether the omission of biological plausibility is a potential limitation of the GRADE CoE Framework is a topic that is regularly discussed, especially in the context of environmental health systematic reviews. OBJECTIVES: We analyse how the concept of "biological plausibility", as applied in the context of assessing certainty of the evidence that supports the findings of a systematic review, is accommodated under the processes of systematic review and the existing GRADE domains. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We argue that "biological plausibility" is a concept which primarily comes into play when direct evidence about the effects of an exposure on a population of concern (usually humans) is absent, at high risk of bias, is inconsistent, or limited in other ways. In such circumstances, researchers look toward evidence from other study designs in order to draw conclusions. In this respect, we can consider experimental animal and in vitro evidence as "surrogates" for the target populations, exposures, comparators and outcomes of actual interest. Through discussion of 10 examples of experimental surrogates, we propose that the concept of biological plausibility consists of two principal aspects: a "generalisability aspect" and a "mechanistic aspect". The "generalisability aspect" concerns the validity of inferences from experimental models to human scenarios, and asks the same question as does the assessment of external validity or indirectness in systematic reviews. The "mechanistic aspect" concerns certainty in knowledge of biological mechanisms and would inform judgements of indirectness under GRADE, and thus the overall CoE. While both aspects are accommodated under the indirectness domain of the GRADE CoE Framework, further research is needed to determine how to use knowledge of biological mechanisms in the assessment of indirectness of the evidence in systematic reviews.


Environmental Health , GRADE Approach , Animals , Bias , Public Health , Systematic Reviews as Topic
16.
ALTEX ; 39(3): 499­518, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35258090

The workshop titled "Application of evidence-based methods to construct mechanism-driven chemical assessment frameworks" was co-organized by the Evidence-based Toxicology Collaboration and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and hosted by EFSA at its headquarters in Parma, Italy on October 2 and 3, 2019. The goal was to explore integration of systematic review with mechanistic evidence evaluation. Participants were invited to work on concrete products to advance the exploration of how evidence-based approaches can support the development and application of adverse outcome pathways (AOP) in chemical risk assessment. The workshop discussions were centered around three related themes: 1) assessing certainty in AOPs, 2) literature-based AOP development, and 3) integrating certainty in AOPs and non-animal evidence into decision frameworks. Several challenges, mostly related to methodology, were identified and largely determined the workshop recommendations. The workshop recommendations included the comparison and potential alignment of processes used to develop AOP and systematic review methodology, including the translation of vocabulary of evidence-based methods to AOP and vice versa, the development and improvement of evidence mapping and text mining methods and tools, as well as a call for a fundamental change in chemical risk and uncertainty assessment methodology if to be conducted based on AOPs and new approach methodologies (NAM). The usefulness of evidence-based approaches for mechanism-based chemical risk assessments was stressed, particularly the potential contribution of the rigor and transparency inherent to such approaches in building stakeholders' trust for implementation of NAM evidence and AOPs into chemical risk assessment.


Adverse Outcome Pathways , Food Safety , Humans , Italy , Risk Assessment/methods
17.
Forensic Sci Int Synerg ; 4: 100218, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35141514

In-depth forensic investigation and analysis of historic vehicles is a relatively new field of research. However, such examinations are becoming an important tool in the face of rising market values and the associated increase of manipulations and forgeries. We review various forensic approaches used in our interdisciplinary work in this field, including vehicle specialists, metallurgists, restorers, and archaeometry laboratories. The related investigations cover a general examination of the vehicle including detailed analysis of its materials and construction techniques, which are cross-referenced with the techniques and materials used in period. We illustrate our theoretical and analytical approach with practical examples from our work on collector vehicles. Finally, we consider methods and approaches currently under development.

18.
J Clin Epidemiol ; 146: 32-46, 2022 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35219805

BACKGROUND: "Biological plausibility" is a concept frequently referred to in environmental and public health when researchers are evaluating how confident they are in the results and inferences of a study or evidence review. Biological plausibility is not, however, a domain of one of the most widely used approaches for assessing the certainty of evidence (CoE) which underpins the findings of a systematic review, the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) CoE Framework. OBJECTIVES: Whether the omission of biological plausibility is a potential limitation of the GRADE CoE Framework is a topic that is regularly discussed, especially in the context of environmental health systematic reviews. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyze how the concept of "biological plausibility," as applied in the context of assessing certainty of the evidence that supports the findings of a systematic review, is accommodated under the processes of systematic review and the existing GRADE domains. RESULTS: We argue that "biological plausibility" is a concept which primarily comes into play when direct evidence about the effects of an exposure on a population of concern (usually humans) is absent, at high risk of bias, inconsistent, or limited in other ways. In such circumstances, researchers look toward evidence from other study designs to draw conclusions. In this respect, we can consider experimental animal and in vitro evidence as "surrogates" for the target populations, exposures, comparators, and outcomes of actual interest. Through discussion of 10 examples of experimental surrogates, we propose that the concept of biological plausibility consists of two principal aspects: a "generalizability aspect" and a "mechanistic aspect." CONCLUSIONS: The "generalizability aspect" concerns the validity of inferences from experimental models to human scenarios, and asks the same question as does the assessment of external validity or indirectness in systematic reviews. The "mechanistic aspect" concerns certainty in knowledge of biological mechanisms and would inform judgments of indirectness under GRADE, and thus the overall CoE. Although both aspects are accommodated under the indirectness domain of the GRADE CoE Framework, further research is needed to determine how to use knowledge of biological mechanisms in the assessment of indirectness of the evidence in systematic reviews.


Environmental Health , GRADE Approach , Animals , Bias , Humans , Research Design , Systematic Reviews as Topic
19.
ALTEX ; 39(1): 3-29, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35034131

Safety sciences must cope with uncertainty of models and results as well as information gaps. Acknowledging this uncer-tainty necessitates embracing probabilities and accepting the remaining risk. Every toxicological tool delivers only probable results. Traditionally, this is taken into account by using uncertainty / assessment factors and worst-case / precautionary approaches and thresholds. Probabilistic methods and Bayesian approaches seek to characterize these uncertainties and promise to support better risk assessment and, thereby, improve risk management decisions. Actual assessments of uncertainty can be more realistic than worst-case scenarios and may allow less conservative safety margins. Most importantly, as soon as we agree on uncertainty, this defines room for improvement and allows a transition from traditional to new approach methods as an engineering exercise. The objective nature of these mathematical tools allows to assign each methodology its fair place in evidence integration, whether in the context of risk assessment, sys-tematic reviews, or in the definition of an integrated testing strategy (ITS) / defined approach (DA) / integrated approach to testing and assessment (IATA). This article gives an overview of methods for probabilistic risk assessment and their application for exposure assessment, physiologically-based kinetic modelling, probability of hazard assessment (based on quantitative and read-across based structure-activity relationships, and mechanistic alerts from in vitro studies), indi-vidual susceptibility assessment, and evidence integration. Additional aspects are opportunities for uncertainty analysis of adverse outcome pathways and their relation to thresholds of toxicological concern. In conclusion, probabilistic risk assessment will be key for constructing a new toxicology paradigm - probably!


Toxicology , Bayes Theorem , Risk Assessment , Uncertainty
20.
ALTEX ; 39(2): 175-182, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35100433

Evidence-based methodology, in particular systematic review, is increasingly being applied in environmental, public, and occupational health to increase the transparency, comprehensiveness, and objectivity of the processes by which existing evidence is gathered, assessed, and synthesized in answering research questions. This development is also changing risk assessment practices and will impact the assessment of uncertainties in the evidence for risks to human health that are posed by exposure to chemicals. The potential of evidence-based methodology for characterizing uncertainties in risk assessment has been widely recognized, while its contribution to uncertainty reduction is yet to be fully elucidated. We therefore present some key aspects of the evidence-based approach to risk assessment, showing how they can contribute to the identification and the assessment of uncertainties. We focus on the pre-specification of an assessment method­ology in a protocol, comprehensive search strategies, study selection using predefined eligibility criteria, critical appraisal of individual studies, and an evidence integration and uncertainty characterization process based on certainty of evi­dence frameworks that are well-established in health care research. We also provide examples of uncertainty in risk assessment and discuss how evidence-based methodology could address those. This perspective, which neither claims to be comprehensive nor complete, is intended to stimulate discussion of the topic and to motivate detailed exploration of how evidence-based methodology contributes to characterization of uncertainties, and how it will lead to uncertainty reduction in the conduct of health risk assessment.


Animal Testing Alternatives , Animals , Humans , Risk Assessment/methods , Uncertainty
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