Covariate modeling in pharmacometrics: General points for consideration.

Modeling the relationships between covariates and pharmacometric model parameters is a central feature of pharmacometric analyses. The information obtained from covariate modeling may be used for dose selection, dose individualization, or the planning of clinical studies in different population subgroups. The pharmacometric literature has amassed a diverse, complex, and evolving collection of methodologies and interpretive guidance related to covariate modeling. With the number and complexity of technologies increasing, a need for an overview of the state of the art has emerged. In this article the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP) Standards and Best Practices Committee presents perspectives on best practices for planning, executing, reporting, and interpreting covariate analyses to guide pharmacometrics decision making in academic, industry, and regulatory settings.

A Randomized Trial Comparing Standard of Care to Bayesian Warfarin Dose Individualization.

The quality of warfarin treatment may be improved if management is guided by the use of models based upon pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic theory. A prospective, two-armed, single-blind, randomized controlled trial compared management aided by a web-based dose calculator (NextDose) with standard clinical care. Participants were 240 adults receiving warfarin therapy following cardiac surgery, followed up until the first outpatient appointment at least 3 months after warfarin initiation. We compared the percentage of time spent in the international normalized ratio acceptable range (%TIR) during the first 28 days following warfarin initiation, and %TIR and count of bleeding events over the entire follow-up period. Two hundred thirty-four participants were followed up to day 28 (NextDose: 116 and standard of care: 118), and 228 participants (114 per arm) were followed up to the final study visit. Median %TIR tended to be higher for participants receiving NextDose guided warfarin management during the first 28 days (63 vs. 56%, P = 0.13) and over the entire follow-up period (74 vs. 71%, P = 0.04). The hazard of clinically relevant minor bleeding events was lower for participants in the NextDose arm (hazard ratio: 0.21, P = 0.041). In NextDose, there were 89.3% of proposed doses accepted by prescribers. NextDose guided dose management in cardiac surgery patients requiring warfarin was associated with an increase in %TIR across the full follow-up period and fewer hemorrhagic events. A theory-based, pharmacologically guided approach facilitates higher quality warfarin anticoagulation. An important practical benefit is a reduced requirement for clinical experience of warfarin management.

A physiological approach to renal clearance: From premature neonates to adults.

AIMS: We propose using glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as the physiological basis for distinguishing components of renal clearance. METHODS: Gentamicin, amikacin and vancomycin are thought to be predominantly excreted by the kidneys. A mixed-effects joint model of the pharmacokinetics of these drugs was developed, with a wide dispersion of weight, age and serum creatinine. A dataset created from 18 sources resulted in 27,338 drug concentrations from 9,901 patients. Body size and composition, maturation and renal function were used to describe differences in drug clearance and volume of distribution. RESULTS: This study demonstrates that GFR is a predictor of two distinct components of renal elimination clearance: (1) GFR clearance associated with normal GFR and (2) non-GFR clearance not associated with normal GFR. All three drugs had GFR clearance estimated as a drug-specific percentage of normal GFR (gentamicin 39%, amikacin 90% and vancomycin 57%). The total clearance (sum of GFR and non-GFR clearance), standardized to 70 kg total body mass, 176 cm, male, renal function 1, was 5.58 L/h (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.50-5.69) (gentamicin), 7.77 L/h (95% CI 7.26-8.19) (amikacin) and 4.70 L/h (95% CI 4.61-4.80) (vancomycin). CONCLUSIONS: GFR provides a physiological basis for renal drug elimination. It has been used to distinguish two elimination components. This physiological approach has been applied to describe clearance and volume of distribution from premature neonates to elderly adults with a wide dispersion of size, body composition and renal function. Dose individualization has been implemented using target concentration intervention.

Evaluation of the Prescribing Skills Assessment implementation, performance and medical student experience in Australia and New Zealand.

AIMS: The UK Prescribing Safety Assessment was modified for use in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) as the Prescribing Skills Assessment (PSA). We investigated the implementation, student performance and acceptability of the ANZ PSA for final-year medical students. METHODS: This study used a mixed-method approach involving student data (n = 6440) for 2017-2019 (PSA overall score and 8 domain subscores). Data were also aggregated by medical school and included student evaluation survey results. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive and multivariate analyses. The pass rate was established by a modified Angoff method. Thematic analyses of open-ended survey comments were conducted. RESULTS: The average pass rate was slightly higher in 2017 (89%) which used a different examination to 2018 (85%) and 2019 (86%). Little difference was identified between schools for the PSA overall performance or domain subscores. There was low intercorrelation between subscores. Most students provided positive feedback about the PSA regarding the interface and clarity of questions, but an average of 35% reported insufficient time for completion. Further, 70% on average felt unprepared by their school curricula for the PSA, which is in part explained by the low prescribing experience; 69% reported completing ≤10 prescriptions during training. CONCLUSION: The ANZ PSA was associated with high pass rates and acceptability, although student preparedness was highlighted as a concern for further investigation. We demonstrate how a collaboration of medical schools can adapt a medical education assessment resource (UK PSA) as a means for fulfilling an unmet need.

Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Unbound Concentrations of Daptomycin in Patients with MRSA Including Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Unbound daptomycin concentrations are responsible for pharmacologically beneficial and adverse effects, although most previous reports have been limited to the use of total concentrations. We developed a population pharmacokinetic model to predict both total and unbound daptomycin concentrations. METHODS: Clinical data were collected from 58 patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus including patients undergoing hemodialysis. A total of 339 serum total and 329 unbound daptomycin concentrations were used for model construction. RESULTS: Total and unbound daptomycin concentration was explained by a model that assumed first-order distribution with two compartments, and first-order elimination. Normal fat body mass was identified as covariates. Renal function was incorporated as a linear function of renal clearance and independent non-renal clearance. The unbound fraction was estimated to be 0.066 with a standard albumin of 45 g/L and standard creatinine clearance of 100 mL/min. Simulated unbound daptomycin concentration was compared with minimum inhibitory concentration as a measure of clinical effectiveness and exposure-level-related induction of creatine phosphokinase elevation. The recommended doses were 4 mg/kg for patients with severe renal function [creatinine clearance (CLcr) ≤ 30 mL/min] and 6 mg/kg for patients with mild to moderate renal function (CLcr > 30 and ≤ 60 mL/min). A simulation indicated that dose adjusted by body weight and renal function improved target attainment. CONCLUSIONS: This population pharmacokinetics model for unbound daptomycin could help clinicians to select the appropriate dose regimen for patients undergoing daptomycin treatment and reduce associated adverse effects.

Consistent methods for fat-free mass, creatinine clearance, and glomerular filtration rate to describe renal function from neonates to adults.

Quantifying the effect of kidney disease on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important when describing variability in the clearance of drugs eliminated by the kidney. We aimed to develop a continuous model for renal function (RF) from prematurity to adulthood based on consistent models for fat-free mass (FFM), creatinine production rate (CPR), and GFR. A model for fractional FFM in premature neonates to adults was developed using pooled data from 4462 subjects and 2847 FFM observations. It was found that girls have an FFM higher than that predicted from adult women based on height, total body mass, and sex, and boys have an FFM lower than adult men until around the onset of puberty, when it approaches adult male values. Data from 108 subjects with measurements of serum creatinine (Scr) and GFR were used to construct a model for CPR. Creatinine clearance was predicted using a model for CPR (based on FFM, postmenstrual age, and sex) and Scr that avoids discontinuous predictions between neonates, children, and adults. Individual CPR may then be used with individual Scr to predict the estimated GFR (eGFR; eGFR = CPR/Scr). A previously published model for human GFR based on 1153 GFR observations in 923 subjects without known kidney disease was updated using the model for fractional FFM to predict individual size and age-consistent values for the expected normal GFR (nGFR). Individual renal function was then calculated using RF = eGFR/nGFR.

Important lack of difference in tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics between Aboriginal and Caucasian kidney transplant recipients.

AIM: To examine whether differences in tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid (MPA) pharmacokinetics contribute to the poorer kidney transplant outcomes experienced by Aboriginal Australians. METHODS: Concentration-time profiles for tacrolimus and MPA were prospectively collected from 43 kidney transplant recipients: 27 Aboriginal and 16 Caucasian. Apparent clearance (CL/F) and distribution volume (V/F) for each individual were derived from concentration-time profiles combined with population pharmacokinetic priors, with subsequent assessment for between-group difference in pharmacokinetics. In addition, population pharmacokinetic models were developed using the prospective dataset supplemented by previously developed structural models for tacrolimus and MPA. The change in NONMEM objective function was used to assess improvement in goodness of model fit. RESULTS: No differences were found between Aboriginal and Caucasian groups or empirical Bayes estimates, for CL/F or V/F of MPA or tacrolimus. However, a higher prevalence of CYP3A5 expressers (26% compared with 0%) and wider between-subject variability in tacrolimus CL/F (SD = 5.00 compared with 3.25 L/h/70 kg) were observed in the Aboriginal group, though these differences failed to reach statistical significance (p = .07 and p = .08). CONCLUSION: There were no differences in typical tacrolimus or MPA pharmacokinetics between Aboriginal and Caucasian kidney transplant recipients. This means that Bayesian dosing tools developed to optimise tacrolimus and MPA dosing in Caucasian recipients may be applied to Aboriginal recipients. In turn, this may improve drug exposure and thereby transplant outcomes in this group. Aboriginal recipients appeared to have greater between-subject variability in tacrolimus CL/F and a higher prevalence of CYP3A5 expressers, attributes that have been linked with inferior outcomes.

TDM is dead. Long live TCI!

Twenty years ago, target concentration intervention (TCI) was distinguished from therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). It was proposed that TCI would bring more clinical benefit because of the precision of the approach and the ability to link TCI to principles of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics to predict the dose required by an individual (1). We examine the theory and clinical trial evidence supporting the benefits of TCI over TDM and conclude that in the digital age TDM should be abandoned and replaced by TCI.

Wide size dispersion and use of body composition and maturation improves the reliability of allometric exponent estimates.

To evaluate study designs and the influence of dispersion of body size, body composition and maturation of clearance or reliable estimation of allometric exponents. Non-linear mixed effects modeling and parametric bootstrap were employed to assess how the study sample size, number of observations per subject, between subject variability (BSV) and dispersion of size distribution affected estimation bias and uncertainty of allometric exponents. The role of covariate model misspecification was investigated using a large data set ranging from neonates to adults. A decrease in study sample size, number of observations per subject, an increase in BSV and a decrease in dispersion of size distribution, increased the uncertainty of allometric exponent estimates. Studies conducted only in adults with drugs exhibiting normal (30%) BSV in clearance may need to include at least 1000 subjects to be able to distinguish between allometric exponents of 2/3 and 1. Nevertheless, studies including both children and adults can distinguish these exponents with only 100 subjects. A marked bias of 45% (95%CI 41-49%) in the estimate of the allometric exponent of clearance was obtained when maturation and body composition were ignored in infants. A wide dispersion of body size (e.g. infants, children and adults) is required to reliably estimate allometric exponents. Ignoring differences in body composition and maturation of clearance may bias the exponent for clearance. Therefore, pharmacometricians should avoid estimating allometric exponent parameters without suitable designs and covariate models. Instead, they are encouraged to rely on the well-developed theory and evidence that clearance and volume parameters in humans scale with theory-based exponents.

Optimizing Mycophenolic Acid Exposure in Kidney Transplant Recipients: Time for Target Concentration Intervention.

The immunosuppressive agent mycophenolate is used extensively in kidney transplantation, yet dosing strategy applied varies markedly from fixed dosing ("one-dose-fits-all"), to mycophenolic acid (MPA) trough concentration monitoring, to dose optimization to an MPA exposure target (as area under the concentration-time curve [MPA AUC0-12]). This relates in part to inconsistent results in prospective trials of concentration-controlled dosing (CCD). In this review, the totality of evidence supporting mycophenolate CCD is examined: pharmacological characteristics, observational data linking exposure to efficacy and toxicities, and randomized controlled trials of CCD, with attention to dose optimization method and exposure achieved. Fixed dosing of mycophenolate consistently leads to underexposure associated with rejection, as well as overexposure associated with toxicities. When CCD is driven by pharmacokinetic calculation to a target concentration (target concentration intervention), MPA exposure is successfully controlled and clinical benefits are seen. There remains a need for consensus on practical aspects of mycophenolate target concentration intervention in contemporary tacrolimus-containing regimens and future research to define maintenance phase exposure targets. However, given ongoing consequences of both overimmunosuppression and underimmunosuppression in kidney transplantation, impacting short- and long-term outcomes, these should be a priority. The imprecise "one-dose-fits-all" approach should be replaced by the clinically proven MPA target concentration strategy.

Treatment response and disease progression.

This tutorial defines the concepts of disease progression in the context of clinical pharmacology. Disease progression describes the natural history of disease, such as pain, or biomarker of drug response, such as blood pressure. The action of a drug, such as inhibiting an enzyme or activating a receptor, leads to a change in disease status over time. Two main types of drug response can be defined based on the pattern of the time course of disease status. The most common is a symptomatic effect equivalent to a shift up or down of the natural history curve. Less common but quite clinically important is a disease-modifying effect equivalent to a change in the rate of disease progression.

Negligible impact of birth on renal function and drug metabolism.

BACKGROUND: Transition from the intrauterine to the extrauterine environment in neonates is associated with major changes in blood flow and oxygenation with consequent increases in metabolic functions. The additional impact of birth on renal function and drug metabolism above that predicted by postmenstrual age and allometry is uncertain. Increased clearance at birth could reduce analgesic effect attributable to a lowering of plasma concentration. These elimination processes can be described using the clearance concept. METHODS: Data from four publications that investigated the time course of glomerular filtration rate and clearance of paracetamol, morphine and tramadol were reanalyzed. The effect of birth, based on postnatal age, was used in conjunction with a theory-based allometric size scaling and maturation based on postmenstrual age. RESULTS: Postnatal age had a short-term effect on the time course of clearance distinguishable from the well-known slower maturation based on postmenstrual age. While elimination might be relatively reduced by 15%-45% at birth, there is a rapid increase in elimination for 1-3 weeks after birth to be 15% greater than that predicted by postmenstrual age alone. CONCLUSION: Birth is associated with a small increase in clearance in addition to that described by postmenstrual age for common analgesic drugs cleared by glucuronide conjugation (morphine, paracetamol) or by the P450 cytochrome oxidase (tramadol) and renal systems. While the increase is of biological interest, it would not be expected to have any clinically relevant impact on renal function or drug dosing. The processes of maturation described by these models are potentially applicable to any drug elimination process.

Pharmacodynamic principles and the time course of delayed and cumulative drug effects.

This tutorial reviews the principles of the concentration - effect relationship for the usual case when drug effects are delayed relative to changes in circulating concentrations. The key processes determining delay are distribution from the circulation to the receptor, binding to the receptor to produce a stimulus and translation of the receptor stimulus into an effect through turnover of physiological mediators. Some clinical outcomes are dependent on the accumulation of drug action which is predictable in terms of basic pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic concepts.

Pharmacodynamic principles and target concentration intervention.

This tutorial reviews the principles of dose individualisation with an emphasis on target concentration intervention (TCI). Once a target effect is chosen then pharmacodynamics can predict the target concentration and pharmacokinetics can predict the target dose to achieve the required response. Dose individualisation can be considered at three levels: population, group and individual. Population dosing, also known as fixed dosing or "one size fits all" is often used but is poor clinical pharmacology; group dosing uses patient features such as weight, organ function and co-medication to adjust the dose for a typical patient; individual dosing uses observations of patient response to inform about pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics in the individual and use these individual differences to individualise dose.

What is the best size predictor for dose in the obese child?

Lean body mass is commonly proposed for anesthesia maintenance drug dosing calculations. However, total body mass used with allometric scaling has been shown to be better for propofol in obese adults and children. Fat-free mass has also been used instead of lean body mass. Fat-free mass is essentially the same as lean body mass but excludes a small percentage of mass of lipids in cell membranes, CNS, and bone marrow. Normal fat mass is a size descriptor that partitions total body mass into fat-free mass and fat mass calculated from total body mass minus fat-free mass. The relative influence of fat mass compared with fat-free mass is described by the fraction of fat mass that makes fat equivalent to fat-free mass in terms of allometric size. This fraction (Ffat) will differ for each drug and each parameter affected by body size (eg, clearance and volume of distribution). This fraction is based on the concept of theory-based allometric size. The normal fat mass based on allometric theory and partition of body mass into fat and fat-free components provides a principle-based approach explaining size and body composition effects on pharmacokinetics of all drugs in children and in adults.