Scaling hypertension treatment in 24 low-income and middle-income countries: economic evaluation of treatment decisions at three blood pressure cut-points.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the incremental costs and benefits of scaling up hypertension care in adults in 24 select countries, using three different systolic blood pressure (SBP) treatment cut-off points-≥140, ≥150 and ≥160 mm Hg. INTERVENTION: Strengthening the hypertension care cascade compared with status quo levels, with pharmacological treatment administered at different cut-points depending on the scenario. TARGET POPULATION: Adults aged 30+ in 24 low-income and middle-income countries spanning all world regions. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. TIME HORIZON: 30 years. DISCOUNT RATE: 4%. COSTING YEAR: 2020 USD. STUDY DESIGN: DATA SOURCES: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Epi Visualisations database-country-specific cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, prevalence and death rates. Mean SBP and prevalence-National surveys and NCD-RisC. Treatment protocols-WHO HEARTS. Treatment impact-academic literature. Costs-national and international databases. OUTCOME MEASURES: Health outcomes-averted stroke and myocardial infarction events, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years; economic outcomes-averted health expenditures, value of averted mortality and workplace productivity losses. RESULTS OF ANALYSIS: Across 24 countries, over 30 years, incremental scale-up of hypertension care for adults with SBP≥140 mm Hg led to 2.6 million averted CVD events and 1.2 million averted deaths (7% of expected CVD deaths). 68% of benefits resulted from treating those with very high SBP (≥160 mm Hg). 10 of the 12 highest-income countries projected positive net benefits at one or more treatment cut-points, compared with 3 of the 12 lowest-income countries. Treating hypertension at SBP≥160 mm Hg maximised the net economic benefit in the lowest-income countries. LIMITATIONS: The model only included a few hypertension-attributable diseases and did not account for comorbid risk factors. Modelled scenarios assumed ambitious progress on strengthening the care cascade. CONCLUSIONS: In areas where economic considerations might play an outsized role, such as very low-income countries, prioritising treatment to populations with severe hypertension can maximise benefits net of economic costs.

A Digital Intervention to Improve Skin Self-Examination Among Survivors of Melanoma: Protocol for a Type-1 Hybrid Effectiveness-Implementation Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Although melanoma survival rates have improved in recent years, survivors remain at risk of recurrence, second primary cancers, and keratinocyte carcinomas. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends skin examinations by a physician every 3 to 12 months. Regular thorough skin self-examinations (SSEs) are recommended for survivors of melanoma to promote the detection of earlier-stage, thinner melanomas, which are associated with improved survival and lower treatment costs. Despite their importance, less than a quarter of survivors of melanoma engage in SSEs. OBJECTIVE: Previously, our team developed and evaluated a web-based, fully automated intervention called mySmartSkin (MSS) that successfully improved SSE among survivors of melanoma. Enhancements were proposed to improve engagement with and outcomes of MSS. The purpose of this paper is to describe the rationale and methodology for a type-1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomized trial evaluating the enhanced MSS versus control and exploring implementation outcomes and contextual factors. METHODS: This study will recruit from state cancer registries and social media 300 individuals diagnosed with cutaneous malignant melanoma between 3 months and 5 years after surgery who are currently cancer free. Participants will be randomly assigned to either enhanced MSS or a noninteractive educational web page. Surveys will be collected from both arms at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months to assess measures of intervention engagement, barriers, self-efficacy, habit, and SSE. The primary outcome is thorough SSE. The secondary outcomes are the diagnosis of new or recurrent melanomas and sun protection practices. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling will be used to examine whether there are significant differences in survivor outcomes between MSS and the noninteractive web page over time. Mixed methods will evaluate reach, adoption, implementation (including costs), and potential for maintenance of MSS, as well as contextual factors relevant to those outcomes and future scale-up. CONCLUSIONS: This trial has the potential to improve outcomes in survivors of melanoma. If MSS is effective, the results could guide its implementation in oncology care and nonprofit organizations focused on skin cancers. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/52689.

Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on HIV Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted sexual behaviors and the HIV continuum of care in the United States, reducing HIV testing and diagnosis, and use of preexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to understand the future implications of these effects through a modeling study. METHODS: We first ran our compartmental model of HIV transmission in the United States accounting for pandemic-related short-term changes in transmission behavior and HIV prevention and care provision in 2020 to 2021 only. We then ran a comparison scenario that did not apply pandemic effects but assumed a continuation of past HIV prevention and care trends. We compared results from the 2 scenarios through 2024. RESULTS: HIV incidence was 4·4% lower in 2020 to 2021 for the pandemic scenario compared with the no-pandemic scenario because of reduced levels of transmission behavior, despite reductions in HIV prevention and care caused by the pandemic. However, reduced care led to less viral load suppression among people with HIV in 2020, and in turn, our model resulted in a slightly greater incidence of 2·0% from 2022 to 2024 in the COVID-19 scenario, as compared with the non-COVID scenario. DISCUSSION: Disruptions in HIV prevention and care services during COVID-19 may lead to somewhat higher postpandemic HIV incidence than assuming prepandemic trends in HIV care and prevention continued. These results underscore the importance of continuing to increase HIV prevention and care efforts in the coming years.

Using the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Impacts of Multisector Community Partnerships' Efforts to Address Social Determinants of Health.

Public health plays a key role in addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) through multisector community partnerships (MCPs), which contribute to community changes that promote healthy living; however, little is known about the longer-term impact of MCP-driven interventions. We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) in a rapid evaluation to better understand the implementation and potential impact of MCPs' SDOH initiatives. Results suggest that, if sustained, initiatives implemented by the 27 included MCPs may prevent 880 premature deaths and avert $125.7 million in medical costs over 20 years. As a validated model that estimates impact by using available implementation data, PRISM is a useful tool for evaluating SDOH initiatives.

Key insights on multisector community partnerships from real-world efforts to address social determinants of health.

PURPOSE: To better understand and inform how multisector community partnerships (MCPs) perform meaningful work to prevent chronic disease and advance health equity by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH). METHODS: We conducted a rapid retrospective evaluation of SDOH initiatives implemented within the past three years by 42 established MCPs across the United States. The mixed methods evaluation included document review and coding of available outcomes data, virtual discussions, and Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) analysis. RESULTS: All 42 MCPs built community capacity for addressing SDOH through new or strengthened data systems, leveraged resources, or engaged residents, for example. Most MCPs (N = 38, 90%) reported contributions to community changes that promote healthy living. More than half of the MCPs (N = 22) reported health outcomes data for their SDOH initiatives, including improved health behaviors and clinical outcomes. Based on reach data provided by 27 MCPs, PRISM analysis results suggest that sustained initiatives could save over $633 million in productivity and medical costs cumulatively through 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: With sufficient technical assistance and funding resources, MCPs are a key component of the public health strategy to address SDOH.

Macroeconomic impact of Ebola outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic Ebola vaccination programs.

INTRODUCTION: Decisions about prevention of and response to Ebola outbreaks require an understanding of the macroeconomic implications of these interventions. Prophylactic vaccines hold promise to mitigate the negative economic impacts of infectious disease outbreaks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between outbreak size and economic impact among countries with recorded Ebola outbreaks and to quantify the hypothetical benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination interventions in these outbreaks. METHODS: The synthetic control method was used to estimate the causal impacts of Ebola outbreaks on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have previously experienced Ebola outbreaks between 2000 and 2016, where no vaccines were deployed. Using illustrative assumptions about vaccine coverage, efficacy, and protective immunity, the potential economic benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination were estimated using the number of cases in an outbreak as a key indicator. RESULTS: The impact of Ebola outbreaks on the macroeconomy of the selected countries led to a decline in GDP of up to 36%, which was greatest in the third year after the onset of each outbreak and increased exponentially with the size of outbreak (i.e., number of reported cases). Over three years, the aggregate loss estimated for Sierra Leone from its 2014-2016 outbreak is estimated at 16.1 billion International$. Prophylactic vaccination could have prevented up to 89% of an outbreak's negative impact on GDP, reducing the outbreak's impact to as little as 1.6% of GDP lost. CONCLUSION: This study supports the case that macroeconomic returns are associated with prophylactic Ebola vaccination. Our findings support recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination as a core component of prevention and response measures for global health security.

Analysis of School-Day Disruption of Administering School-Located Vaccination to Children in Three Local Areas, 2012-2013 School Year.

The purpose of this study was to determine the amount of time elementary and middle-school students spend away from the classroom and clinic time required to administer vaccines in school-located vaccination (SLV) clinics. We conducted a time study and estimated average time away from class and time to administer vaccine by health department (HD), student grade level, vaccine type, and vaccination process for SLV clinics during the 2012-2013 school year. Average time away from classroom was 10 min (sample: 688 students, 15 schools, three participating HD districts). Overall, time to administer intranasally administered influenza vaccine was nearly half the time to administer injected vaccine (52.5 vs. 101.7 s) (sample: 330 students, two HDs). SLV administration requires minimal time outside of class for elementary and middle-school students. SLV clinics may be an efficient way to administer catch-up vaccines to children who missed routine vaccinations during the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic.

Impact analysis of expanding anti-TNF therapy for Crohn's disease.

Aim: To estimate the impact of universal anti-TNF therapy in patients with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease. Materials & methods: Developed a population-level Markov model to estimate the impact on health outcomes and medical expenditures of expanding anti-TNF therapy use versus current treatment practices. Results: Reductions in deaths (2600), hip fractures (980), major adverse cardiac events (2700) and patient out-of-pocket medical spending (2%) over 5 years. Total societal costs would be US$22,100 higher per patient per year, primarily due to the high cost of anti-TNF therapy. Conclusion: Expanding anti-TNF therapy use among US adult patients with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease would reduce morbidity and mortality, decrease disease-related medical costs and increase treatment costs compared with current practice. Despite the higher costs, this approach could substantially benefit patients.

Impact analysis of expanding narrow-spectrum antibiotic use for children with ear, sinus and throat infections.

Aim: Estimate the impacts treating acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) in children aged 6 months through 12 years with narrow-spectrum antibiotics. Materials & methods: Decision-tree model to estimate children's health, healthcare utilization and costs, and caregiver's time and costs for using narrow-spectrum antibiotics in eligible children with an ARTI, compared with current use of narrow- and broad-spectrum antibiotics. Results: Reduced adverse drug reactions by 35,750 (14%) cases) and 4750 (12%) fewer emergency department visits, 300 (12%) fewer hospitalizations, and 50,500 (10%) avoided outpatient visits. Annual healthcare costs fell by US$120 million (22%). Total societal costs declined by US$131 million (20%). Conclusion: National implementation of narrow-spectrum antibiotics to treat ARTIs in children improves patient outcomes and reduces caregiver burden and annual healthcare costs.

An economic evaluation of reducing colorectal cancer surveillance intensity.

Aim: Analyze the impact of national implementation of 'low intensity' post-treatment colorectal cancer surveillance compared with current practices. Materials & methods: Create a population-level Markov model to estimate impacts of expansion of low versus high intensity surveillance post-treatment on healthcare utilization, costs and caregiver time loss. Results: Shifting to low intensity colorectal cancer surveillance would reduce patient burden by 301,830 h per patient annually over 5 years. Cost reductions over 5 years were US$43.5 million for Medicare and US$4.2 million for Medicaid. Total societal cost savings equaled US$104.2 million. Conclusion: National implementation of low intensity post-treatment colorectal cancer surveillance has the potential to significantly reduce burden and costs on patients and their caregivers with no added risks to health.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioral and pelvic floor muscle therapy combined with midurethral sling surgery vs surgery alone among women with mixed urinary incontinence: results of the Effects of Surgical Treatment Enhanced With Exercise for Mixed Urinary Incontinence randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Urinary incontinence is prevalent among women, and it has a substantial economic impact. Mixed urinary incontinence, with both stress and urgency urinary incontinence symptoms, has a greater adverse impact on quality of life and is more complex to treat than either stress or urgency urinary incontinence alone. Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of treating both the stress and urgency urinary incontinence components simultaneously are lacking. OBJECTIVE: Cost-effectiveness was assessed between perioperative behavioral and pelvic floor muscle therapies combined with midurethral sling surgery and midurethral sling surgery alone for the treatment of women with mixed urinary incontinence. The impact of baseline severe urgency urinary incontinence symptoms on cost-effectiveness was assessed. STUDY DESIGN: This prospective economic evaluation was performed concurrently with the Effects of Surgical Treatment Enhanced with Exercise for Mixed Urinary Incontinence randomized trial that was conducted from October 2013 to April 2016. Participants included 480 women with moderate-to-severe stress and urgency urinary incontinence symptoms and at least 1 stress urinary incontinence episode and 1 urgency urinary incontinence episode on a 3-day bladder diary. The primary within-trial analysis was from the healthcare sector and societal perspectives, with a 1-year time horizon. Costs were in 2019 US dollars. Effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life-years and reductions in urinary incontinence episodes per day. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of combined treatment vs midurethral sling surgery alone were calculated, and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated. Analysis was performed for the overall study population and subgroup of women with Urogenital Distress Inventory irritative scores of ≥50th percentile. RESULTS: The costs for combined treatment were higher than the cost for midurethral sling surgery alone from both the healthcare sector perspective ($5100 [95% confidence interval, $5000-$5190] vs $4470 [95% confidence interval, $4330-$4620]; P<.01) and the societal perspective ($9260 [95% confidence interval, $8590-$9940] vs $8090 [95% confidence interval, $7630-$8560]; P<.01). There was no difference between combined treatment and midurethral sling surgery alone in quality-adjusted life-years (0.87 [95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.89] vs 0.87 [95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.89]; P=.90) or mean reduction in urinary incontinence episodes per day (-4.76 [95% confidence interval, -4.51 to 5.00] vs -4.50 [95% confidence interval, -4.25 to 4.75]; P=.13). When evaluating the overall study population, from both the healthcare sector and societal perspectives, midurethral sling surgery alone was superior to combined treatment. The probability that combined treatment is cost-effective compared with midurethral sling surgery alone is ≤28% from the healthcare sector and ≤19% from the societal perspectives for a willingness-to-pay value of ≤$150,000 per quality-adjusted life-years. For women with baseline Urogenital Distress Inventory irritative scores of ≥50th percentile, combined treatment was cost-effective compared with midurethral sling surgery alone from both the healthcare sector and societal perspectives. The probability that combined treatment is cost-effective compared with midurethral sling surgery alone for this subgroup is ≥90% from both the healthcare sector and societal perspectives, at a willingness-to-pay value of ≥$150,000 per quality-adjusted life-years. CONCLUSION: Overall, perioperative behavioral and pelvic floor muscle therapies combined with midurethral sling surgery was not cost-effective compared with midurethral sling surgery alone for the treatment of women with mixed urinary incontinence. However, combined treatment was of good value compared with midurethral sling surgery alone for women with baseline severe urgency urinary incontinence symptoms.

State-Level Health Care Expenditures Associated With Disability.

OBJECTIVE: Given the growth in national disability-associated health care expenditures (DAHE) and the changes in health insurance-specific DAHE distribution, updated estimates of state-level DAHE are needed. The objective of this study was to update state-level estimates of DAHE. METHODS: We combined data from the 2013-2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2013-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and 2014 National Health Expenditure Accounts to calculate state-level DAHE for US adults in total, per adult, and per (adult) person with disability (PWD). We adjusted expenditures to 2017 prices and assessed changes in DAHE from 2003 to 2015. RESULTS: In 2015, DAHE were $868 billion nationally (range, $1.4 billion in Wyoming to $102.8 billion in California) accounting for 36% of total health care expenditures (range, 29%-41%). From 2003 to 2015, total DAHE increased by 65% (range, 35%-125%). In 2015, DAHE per PWD were highest in the District of Columbia ($27 839) and lowest in Alabama ($12 603). From 2003 to 2015, per-PWD DAHE increased by 13% (range, -20% to 61%) and per-capita DAHE increased by 28% (range, 7%-84%). In 2015, Medicare DAHE per PWD ranged from $10 067 in Alaska to $18 768 in New Jersey. Medicaid DAHE per PWD ranged from $9825 in Nevada to $43 365 in the District of Columbia. Nonpublic-health insurer per-PWD DAHE ranged from $7641 in Arkansas to $18 796 in Alaska. CONCLUSION: DAHE are substantial and vary by state. The public sector largely supports the health care costs of people with disabilities. State policy makers and other stakeholders can use these results to inform the development of public health programs that support and provide ongoing health care to people with disabilities.

Validation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).

INTRODUCTION: Demonstrating the validity of a public health simulation model helps to establish confidence in the accuracy and usefulness of a model's results. In this study we evaluated the validity of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), a system dynamics model that simulates health, mortality, and economic outcomes for the US population. PRISM primarily simulates outcomes related to cardiovascular disease but also includes outcomes related to other chronic diseases that share risk factors. PRISM is openly available through a web application. METHODS: We applied the model validation framework developed independently by the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making modeling task force to validate PRISM. This framework included model review by external experts and quantitative data comparison by the study team. RESULTS: External expert review determined that PRISM is based on up-to-date science. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that no parameter affected results by more than 5%. Comparison with other published models, such as ModelHealth, showed that PRISM produces lower estimates of effects and cost savings. Comparison with surveillance data showed that projected model trends in risk factors and outcomes align closely with secular trends. Four measures did not align with surveillance data, and those were recalibrated. CONCLUSION: PRISM is a useful tool to simulate the potential effects and costs of public health interventions. Results of this validation should help assure health policy leaders that PRISM can help support community health program planning and evaluation efforts.

National Health Care Expenditures Associated With Disability.

BACKGROUND: In 2003, national disability-associated health care expenditures (DAHE) were $398 billion. Updated estimates will improve our understanding of current DAHE. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate national DAHE for the US adult population and analyze spending by insurance and service categories and to assess changes in spending over the past decade. RESEARCH DESIGN: Data from the 2013-2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey were used to estimate DAHE for noninstitutionalized adults. These estimates were reconciled with National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) data and adjusted to 2017 medical prices. Expenditures for institutionalized adults were added from NHEA data. MEASURES: National DAHE in total, by insurance and service categories, and percentage of total expenditures associated with disability. RESULTS: DAHE in 2015 were $868 billion (at 2017 prices), representing 36% of total national health care spending (up from 27% in 2003). DAHE per person with disability increased from $13,395 in 2003 to $17,431 in 2015, whereas nondisability per-person spending remained constant (about $6700). Public insurers paid 69% of DAHE. Medicare paid the largest portion ($324.7 billion), and Medicaid DAHE were $277.2 billion. More than half (54%) of all Medicare expenditures and 72% of all Medicaid expenditures were associated with disability. CONCLUSIONS: The share of health care expenditures associated with disability has increased substantially over the past decade. The high proportion of DAHE paid by public insurers reinforces the importance of public programs designed to improve health care for people with disabilities and emphasizes the need for evaluating programs and health services available to this vulnerable population.

Cost-Effectiveness of Sacral Neuromodulation versus OnabotulinumtoxinA for Refractory Urgency Urinary Incontinence: Results of the ROSETTA Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: Sacral neuromodulation and intradetrusor onabotulinumtoxinA injection are therapies for refractory urgency urinary incontinence. Sacral neuromodulation involves surgical implantation of a device that can last 4 to 6 years while onabotulinumtoxinA therapy involves serial office injections. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of 2-stage implantation sacral neuromodulation vs 200 units onabotulinumtoxinA for the treatment of urgency urinary incontinence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective economic evaluation was performed concurrent with the ROSETTA (Refractory Overactive Bladder: Sacral NEuromodulation vs. BoTulinum Toxin Assessment) randomized trial of 386 women with 6 or more urgency urinary incontinence episodes on a 3-day diary. Analysis is from the health care system perspective with primary within-trial analysis for 2 years and secondary 5-year decision analysis. Costs are in 2018 U.S. dollars. Effectiveness was measured in quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) and reductions in urgency urinary incontinence episodes per day. We generated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. RESULTS: Two-year costs were higher for sacral neuromodulation than for onabotulinumtoxinA ($35,680 [95% CI 33,920-37,440] vs $7,460 [95% CI 5,780-9,150], p <0.01), persisting through 5 years ($36,550 [95% CI 34,787-38,309] vs $12,020 [95% CI 10,330-13,700], p <0.01). At 2 years there were no differences in mean reduction in urgency urinary incontinence episodes per day (-3.00 [95% CI -3.38 - -2.62] vs -3.12 [95% CI -3.48 - -2.76], p=0.66) or QALYs (1.39 [95% CI 1.34-1.44] vs 1.41 [95% CI 1.36-1.45], p=0.60). The probability that sacral neuromodulation is cost-effective relative to onabotulinumtoxinA is less than 0.025 for all willingness to pay values below $580,000 per QALY at 2 years and $204,000 per QALY at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Although both treatments were effective, the high cost of sacral neuromodulation is not good value for treating urgency urinary incontinence compared to 200 units onabotulinumtoxinA.

Incidence, deaths, and lifetime costs of injury among American Indians and Alaska Natives.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the mortality burden of injury is higher among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/AN) than any other racial/ethnic group, and injury contributes to considerable medical costs, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and productivity loss among AI/AN.This study assessed the economic burden of injuries for AI/AN who are eligible for services through Indian Health Service, analyzing direct medical costs of injury for Indian Health Service's users and years of potential life lost (YPLL) and the value of productivity losses from injury deaths for AI/AN in the Indian Health Service population. METHODS: Injury-related lifetime medical costs were estimated for Indian Health Service users with medically treated injuries using data from the 2011-2015 National Data Warehouse. Productivity costs and YPLL were estimated using data on injury-related deaths among AI/AN in Indian Health Service's 2008-2010 service population. Costs were reported in 2017 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: The total estimated costs of injuries per year, including injuries among Indian Health Service users and productivity losses from injury-related deaths, were estimated at $4.5 billion. Lifetime medical costs to treat annual injuries among Indian Health Service users were estimated at $549 million, with the largest share ($131 million) going toward falls, the most frequent injury cause. Total estimated YPLL from AI/AN injury deaths in Indian Health Service's service population were 106,400. YPLL from injury deaths for men (74,000) were 2.2 times YPLL for women (33,000). Productivity losses from all injury-related deaths were $3.9 billion per year. The highest combined lifetime medical and mortality costs were for motor vehicle/traffic injuries, with an estimated cost of $1.6 billion per year. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that targeted injury prevention efforts by Indian Health Service likely contributed to lower rates of injury among AI/AN, particularly for motor vehicle/traffic injuries. However, because of remaining disparities in injury-related outcomes between AI/AN and all races in the United States, Indian Health Service should continue to monitor changes in injury incidence and costs over time, evaluate the impacts of previous injury prevention investments on current incidence and costs, and identify additional injury prevention investment needs.

Estimating the Relative Impact of Clinical and Preventive Community-Based Interventions: An Example Based on the Community Transformation Grant Program.

INTRODUCTION: Public health focuses on a range of evidence-based approaches for addressing chronic conditions, from individual-level clinical interventions to broader changes in policies and environments that protect people's health and make healthy living easier. This study examined the potential long-term impact of clinical and community interventions as they were implemented by Community Transformation Grant (CTG) program awardees. METHODS: We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model, a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate the potential 10-year and 25-year impact of clinical and community interventions implemented by 32 communities receiving a CTG program award, assuming that program interventions were sustained during these periods. RESULTS: Sustained clinical interventions implemented by CTG awardees could potentially avert more than 36,000 premature deaths and $3.2 billion in discounted direct medical costs (2017 US dollars) over 10 years and 109,000 premature deaths and $8.1 billion in discounted medical costs over 25 years. Sustained community interventions could avert more than 24,000 premature deaths and $3.4 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 10 years and 88,000 premature deaths and $9.1 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 25 years. CTG clinical activities had cost-effectiveness of $302,000 per death averted at the 10-year mark and $188,000 per death averted at the 25-year mark. Community interventions had cost-effectiveness of $169,000 and $57,000 per death averted at the 10- and 25-year marks, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical interventions have the potential to avert more premature deaths than community interventions. However, community interventions, if sustained over the long term, have better cost-effectiveness.

Simulated impacts and potential cost effectiveness of Communities Putting Prevention to Work: Tobacco control interventions in 21 U.S. communities, 2010-2020.

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded communities to implement policy, systems, and environmental (PSE) changes under the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program to make it easier for people to make healthier choices to prevent chronic disease. Twenty-one of 50 funded communities implemented interventions intended to reduce tobacco use. To examine the potential cost-effectiveness of tobacco control changes implemented under CPPW from a healthcare system perspective, we compared program cost estimates with estimates of potential impacts. We used an existing simulation model, the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), to estimate the potential cumulative impact of CPPW tobacco interventions on deaths and medical costs averted through 2020. We collected data on the costs to implement CPPW tobacco interventions from 2010 to 2013. We adjusted all costs to 2010 dollars. CPPW tobacco interventions cost $130.5 million across all communities, with an average community cost of $6.2 million. We found $735 million in potentially averted medical costs cumulatively from 2010 through 2020 because of the CPPW-supported interventions. If the CPPW tobacco control PSE changes are sustained through 2020 without additional funding after 2013, we find that medical costs averted will likely exceed program costs by $604 million. Our results suggest that the medical costs averted through 2020 may more than offset the initial investment in CPPW tobacco control interventions, implying that such interventions may be cost saving, especially over the long term.