The International Consensus for Early TB framework (ICE-TB): Implications from a low-incidence setting.

In recent years, there has been increasing recognition of the public health significance of the spectrum of TB disease presentation, and the existing classification systems of asymptomatic infection and symptomatic TB have been limited in terms of explanatory power. Accordingly, in 2022-2023, a new International Consensus framework for Early TB (ICE-TB) was developed, categorising the spectrum of TB infection and disease into five states based on the presence or absence of macroscopic pathology, host infectiousness, and symptoms and signs.We used the ICE-TB framework to re-analyse existing notification data for 2022 within a low-incidence setting to explore the potential utility and future challenges for its public health application.Existing notification data were sufficient to allow substantial reclassification of currently recognised active disease states, but did not systematically capture Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection or subclinical TB. Fifty percent of existing TB notifications would be classified as 'Clinical, infectious', with the potential need to consider further subclassification.Our exploration highlighted limitations in existing classification systems and diagnostic approaches and should encourage researchers and programmatic implementers to emphasise person-centred and programmatic needs in the development of new tools for TB management..

Untangling the stranglehold through mathematical modelling of Streptococcus equi subspecies equi transmission.

Strangles, a disease caused by infection with Streptococccus equi subspecies equi (S. equi), is endemic worldwide and one of the most frequently diagnosed infectious diseases of horses. Recent work has improved our knowledge of key parameters of transmission dynamics, but important knowledge gaps remain. Our aim was to apply mathematical modelling of S. equi transmission dynamics to prioritise future research areas, and add precision to estimates of transmission parameters thereby improving understanding of S. equi epidemiology and quantifying the control effort required. A compartmental deterministic model was constructed. Parameter values were estimated from current literature wherever possible. We assessed the sensitivity of estimates for the basic reproduction number on the population scale to varying assumptions for the unknown or uncertain parameters of: (mean) duration of carriership (1∕γC), relative infectiousness of carriers (f), proportion of infections that result in carriership (p), and (mean) duration of immunity after natural infection (1∕γR). Available incidence and (sero-)prevalence data were compared to model outputs to improve point estimates and ranges for these currently unknown or uncertain transmission-related parameters. The required vaccination coverage of an ideal vaccine to prevent major outbreaks under a range of control scenarios was estimated, and compared available data on existing vaccines. The relative infectiousness of carriers (as compared to acutely ill horses) and the duration of carriership were identified as key knowledge gaps. Deterministic compartmental simulations, combined with seroprevalence data, suggest that 0.05

High-precision stereotactic irradiation for focal drug-resistant epilepsy versus standard treatment: a randomized waitlist-controlled trial (the PRECISION trial).

INTRODUCTION: The standard treatment for patients with focal drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) who are not eligible for open brain surgery is the continuation of anti-seizure medication (ASM) and neuromodulation. This treatment does not cure epilepsy but only decreases severity. The PRECISION trial offers a non-invasive, possibly curative intervention for these patients, which consist of a single stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) treatment. Previous studies have shown promising results of SRT in this patient population. Nevertheless, this intervention is not yet available and reimbursed in the Netherlands. We hypothesize that: SRT is a superior treatment option compared to palliative standard of care, for patients with focal DRE, not eligible for open surgery, resulting in a higher reduction of seizure frequency (with 50% of the patients reaching a 75% seizure frequency reduction at 2 years follow-up). METHODS: In this waitlist-controlled phase 3 clinical trial, participants are randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to either receive SRT as the intervention, while the standard treatments consist of ASM continuation and neuromodulation. After 2-year follow-up, patients randomized for the standard treatment (waitlist-control group) are offered SRT. Patients aged ≥ 18 years with focal DRE and a pretreatment defined epileptogenic zone (EZ) not eligible for open surgery will be included. The intervention is a LINAC-based single fraction (24 Gy) SRT treatment. The target volume is defined as the epileptogenic zone (EZ) on all (non) invasive examinations. The seizure frequency will be monitored on a daily basis using an electronic diary and an automatic seizure detection system during the night. Potential side effects are evaluated using advanced MRI, cognitive evaluation, Common Toxicity Criteria, and patient-reported outcome questionnaires. In addition, the cost-effectiveness of the SRT treatment will be evaluated. DISCUSSION: This is the first randomized trial comparing SRT with standard of care in patients with DRE, non-eligible for open surgery. The primary objective is to determine whether SRT significantly reduces the seizure frequency 2 years after treatment. The results of this trial can influence the current clinical practice and medical cost reimbursement in the Netherlands for patients with focal DRE who are not eligible for open surgery, providing a non-invasive curative treatment option. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT05182437. Registered on September 27, 2021.

The lateral joint line opening: a radiographic indicative parameter for high grade varus knees.

PURPOSE: It is usually assumed that the severity of varus osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee is correlated with the axis deviation of the limb. Despite this, there is currently no clear radiographic definition to define a so-called 'high degree' varus knee, which is characterized by a pronounced lateral ligamentous laxity. The purpose of this study was to radiographically determine if the lateral joint line opening (LJLO) is an indicative parameter when defining so-called high grade varus knees. METHODS: Two hundred forty Full length radiographs of patients with end-stage varus osteoarthritis who were scheduled for Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) were evaluated. The Hip-knee-ankle-angle (HKA-angle), Joint-line-convergence-angle (JLCA) and the lateral joint line opening were measured. The lateral joint line opening is the shortest distance between the lateral tibial plateau and the deepest point of the lateral femoral condyle. Linear regression models were used to investigate the relationships between the radiographic measurements. RESULTS: Hip-knee-angle-angle, joint-line-conversion-angle, and lateral joint line opening were all positively correlated (p < 0.001). An increase of 1 mm lateral joint line opening causes an increase of 0.6° joint-line-conversion-angle (p = 0.029) below a cut-off point of 4.7 mm. For lateral opening values beyond 4.7 mm, the gradient increased to 1.2 (p < 0.001). A lateral joint line opening of 4.7 mm corresponds to a hip-knee-ankle-angle of 6.0° (95% CI [5.5; 6.5]). CONCLUSION: A lateral joint line opening of more than 5 mm in end-stage OA knees is indicative of increased lateral joint laxity. Those knees can be radiographically classified as so-called 'high-grade' varus knees. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic study, Level III.

"Radiotherapy for thymic epithelial tumors: What is the optimal dose? A systematic review."

Thymic epithelial tumors (TETs) are rare thoracic tumors, often requiring multimodal approaches. Surgery represents the first step of the treatment, possibly followed by adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) and, less frequently, chemotherapy. For unresectable tumors, a combination of chemotherapy and RT is often used. Currently, the optimal dose for patients undergoing radiation is not clearly defined. Current guidelines on RT are based on studies with a low level of evidence, where 2D RT was widely used. We aim to shed light on the optimal radiation dose for patients with TETs undergoing RT through a systematic review of the recent literature, including reports using modern RT techniques such as 3D-CRT, IMRT/VMAT, or proton-therapy. A comprehensive literature search of four databases was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines. Two investigators independently screened and reviewed the retrieved references. Reports with < 20 patients, 2D-RT use only, median follow-up time < 5 years, and reviews were excluded. Two studies fulfilled all the criteria and therefore were included. Loosening the follow-up time criteria to > 3 years, three additional studies could be evaluated. A total of 193 patients were analyzed, stratified for prognostic factors (histology, stage, and completeness of resection), and synthesized according to the synthesis without meta-analysis (SWIM) method. The paucity and heterogeneity of eligible studies led to controversial results. The optimal RT dose neither for postoperative, nor primary RT in the era of modern RT univocally emerged. Conversely, this overview can spark new evidence to define the optimal RT dose for each TETs category.

Adcitmer® , a new CD56-targeting monomethyl auristatin E-conjugated antibody, is a potential therapeutic approach in Merkel cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is an aggressive skin cancer, whose tumour cells often express CD56. While immune checkpoint inhibitors constitute a major advance for treating patients with MCC with advanced disease, new therapeutic options are still urgently required. OBJECTIVES: To produce and evaluate the therapeutic performance of a new antibody-drug conjugate (Adcitmer® ) targeting CD56 in preclinical models of MCC. METHODS: CD56 expression was evaluated in a MCC cohort (immunohistochemistry on a tissue microarray of 90 tumour samples) and MCC cell lines. Interaction of an unconjugated CD56-targeting antibody with CD56+ MCC cell lines was investigated by immunohistochemistry and imaging flow cytometry. Adcitmer® product was generated by the bioconjugation of CD56-targeting antibody to a cytotoxic drug (monomethyl auristatin E) using the McSAF Inside® bioconjugation process. The chemical properties and homogeneity of Adcitmer® were characterized by hydrophobic interaction chromatography. Adcitmer® cytotoxicity was evaluated in vitro and in an MCC xenograft mice model. RESULTS: Similar to previous reports, CD56 was expressed by 66% of MCC tumours in our cohort, confirming its relevance as a therapeutic target. Specific binding and internalization of the unconjugated CD56-targeting antibody was validated in MCC cell lines. The high homogeneity of the newly generated Adcitmer® was confirmed by hydrophobic interaction chromatography. The CD56-mediated cytotoxicity of Adcitmer® was demonstrated in vitro in MCC cell lines. Moreover, Adcitmer® significantly reduced tumour growth in a MCC mouse model. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that Adcitmer® should be further assessed as a therapeutic option in patients with MCC, as an alternative therapy or combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

The effect of new Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection on the sensitivity of prognostic TB signatures.

BACKGROUND: Tests that identify individuals at greatest risk of TB will allow more efficient targeting of preventive therapy. The WHO target product profile for such tests defines optimal sensitivity of 90% and minimum sensitivity of 75% for predicting incident TB. The CORTIS (Correlate of Risk Targeted Intervention Study) evaluated a blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) for predicting incident TB in a high transmission setting. RISK11 is able to predict TB disease progression but optimal prognostic performance was limited to a 6-month horizon.METHODS: Using a mathematical model, we estimated how subsequent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection may have contributed to the decline in sensitivity of RISK11. We calculated the effect at different RISK11 thresholds (60% and 26%) and for different assumptions about the risk of MTB infection.RESULTS: Modelled sensitivity over 15 months, excluding new infection, was 28.7% (95% CI 12.3-74.1) compared to 25.0% (95% CI 12.7-45.9) observed in the trial. Modelled sensitivity exceeded the minimum criteria (>75%) over a 9-month horizon at the 60% threshold and over 12 months at the 26% threshold.CONCLUSIONS: The effect of new infection on prognostic signature performance is likely to be small. Signatures such as RISK11 may be most useful in individuals, such as household contacts, where probable time of infection is known.

Reliability of the intracerebral hemorrhage score for predicting outcome in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage using oral anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score is the most widely used and validated prognostic model for estimating 30-day mortality in ICH. However, the score was developed and validated in an ICH population probably not using oral anticoagulants (OACs). The aim of this study was to determine the performance of the ICH score for predicting the 30-day mortality rate in the full range of ICH scores in patients using OACs. METHODS: Data from admitted patients with ICH were collected retrospectively in two Dutch comprehensive stroke centers. The validity of the ICH score was evaluated by assessing both discrimination and calibration in OAC and OAC-naive patient groups. RESULTS: A total of 1752 patients were included of which 462 (26%) patients were on OAC. The 30-day mortality was 54% for the OAC cohort and 34% for the OAC-naive cohort. The 30-day mortality was higher in the OAC cohort for ICH score 1 (33% vs. 12.5%; odds ratio, 3.4; 95% confidence intervals, 1.1-10.4) and ICH score 2 (53% vs. 26%; odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence intervals, 1.2-8.2) compared with the predicted mortality rate of the original ICH score. Overall, the discriminative ability of the ICH score was equally good in both cohorts (area under the curve 0.83 vs. 0.87, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The ICH score underestimated the 30-day mortality rate for lower ICH scores in OAC-ICH. When estimating the prognosis of ICH in patients using OAC, this underestimation of mortality must be taken into account.

Estimation of subnational tuberculosis burden: generation and application of a new tool in Indonesia.

SETTING: In many high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries, there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in TB burden. In addition, decisions on TB funding and policy are highly decentralised. Subnational estimates of burden, however, are usually unavailable for planning and target setting.OBJECTIVE and DESIGN: We developed a statistical model termed SUBsET to estimate the distribution of the national TB incidence through a weighted score using selected variables, and applied the model to the 514 districts in Indonesia, which have substantial policy and budgetary autonomy in TB. Estimated incidence was compared to reported facility and domicile-based notifications to estimate the case detection rate (CDR). Local stakeholders led model development and dissemination.RESULTS: The final SUBsET model included district population size, level of urbanisation, socio-economic indicators (living floor space and high school completion), human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and air pollution. We estimated district-level TB incidence to be between 201 and 2,485/100 000/year. The facility-based CDR varied between 0 and 190%, with high variation between neighbouring districts, suggesting strong cross-district health utilisation, which was confirmed by domicile-based CDR estimation. SUBsET results informed district-level TB action plans across Indonesia.CONCLUSION: The SUBsET model could be used to estimate the subnational burden in high-burden countries and inform TB policymaking at the relevant decentralised administrative level.

Improving the quality of modelling evidence used for tuberculosis policy evaluation.

Mathematical modelling is commonly used to evaluate policy options for tuberculosis (TB) control in high-burden countries. Although major policy and funding decisions are made based on these analyses, there is concern about the variability of results produced using modelled policy analyses. We discuss new guidance for country-level TB policy modelling. The guidance was developed by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium in collaboration with the World Health Organization Global TB Programme, with input from a range of TB stakeholders (funders, modelling groups, country TB programme staff and subject matter experts). The guidance describes principles for country-level TB modelling, as well as good practices for operationalising the principles. The principles cover technical concerns such as model design, parameterisation and validation, as well as approaches for incorporating modelling into country-led policy making and budgeting. For modellers, this guidance suggests approaches to improve the quality and relevance of modelling undertaken to support country-level planning. For non-modellers, this guidance describes considerations for engaging modelling technical assistance, contributing to a modelling exercise and reviewing the results of modelled analyses. If routinely adopted, this guidance should improve the reliability, transparency and usefulness of modelling for country-level TB policy making. However, this guidance will not address all challenges facing modelling, and ongoing work is needed to improve the empirical evidence base for TB policy evaluation and develop stronger mechanisms for validating models. Increasing country ownership of the modelling process remains a challenge, requiring sustained engagement and capacity building.

Measuring the economic burden for TB patients in the End TB Strategy and Universal Health Coverage frameworks.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease of poverty. Ensuring access to health care without the risk of financial hardship due to out-of-pocket health care expenditures (Universal Health Coverage [UHC]) is essential for providing accessible care to underprivileged populations, but this is not enough. The End TB Strategy promotes both patient-centred TB services and social protection measures, which aim to mitigate the economic hardship faced by TB patients and their households due to direct medical and non-medical expenditures, as well as to lost income. The strategy includes a target that no families should face catastrophic total costs due to TB. The indicator linked to this target aims to capture the total economic burden linked to TB care, and thus differs from the 'catastrophic expenditure on health' indicator, a key component of the UHC monitoring framework aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. Countries, and particularly high TB burden countries, are expected to conduct nationally representative TB patient cost surveys to establish baseline measurements for the catastrophic costs indicator. Findings from these surveys should also help identify entry points for developing policies to ensure better financial and social protection for TB patients. In this paper, we define the key measurable concepts for TB patient cost surveys, notably the types of costs that are captured, and related affordability measures. We discuss methods for measuring these notions in the UHC framework and contrast them with how they are measured in TB patient cost surveys.

Global tuberculosis targets and milestones set for 2016-2035: definition and rationale.

BACKGROUND: Global tuberculosis (TB) targets were set as part of the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy (2016-2035) and the Sustainable Development Goals (2016-2030). OBJECTIVE: To define and explain the rationale for these targets. DESIGN: Scenarios for plausible reductions in TB deaths and cases were developed using empirical evidence from best-performing countries and modelling of the scale-up of under-used interventions and hypothetical TB vaccines. Results were discussed at consultations in 2012 and 2013. A final proposal was presented to the World Health Assembly in 2014 and unanimously endorsed by all Member States. RESULTS: The 2030 targets are a 90% reduction in TB deaths and 80% reduction in TB incidence compared with 2015 levels. The 2035 targets are for reductions of 95% and 90%, respectively. A third target-that no TB-affected households experience catastrophic costs due to the disease by 2020-was also agreed. CONCLUSION: The global TB targets and milestones set for the period 2016-2035 are ambitious. Achieving them requires concerted action on several fronts, but two things are fundamental: 1) progress towards universal health coverage to ensure that everyone with TB can access high-quality treatment; and 2) substantial investment in research and development for new tools to prevent TB disease among the approximately 1.7 billion people infected.

Modelling the impact of social protection on tuberculosis: the S-PROTECT project.

BACKGROUND: Tackling the social determinants of Tuberculosis (TB) through social protection is a key element of the post-2015 End TB Strategy. However, evidence informing policies are still scarce. Mathematical modelling has the potential to contribute to fill this knowledge gap, but existing models are inadequate. The S-PROTECT consortium aimed to develop an innovative mathematical modelling approach to better understand the role of social protection to improve TB care, prevention and control. METHODS: S-PROTECT used a three-steps approach: 1) the development of a conceptual framework; 2) the extraction from this framework of three high-priority mechanistic pathways amenable for modelling; 3) the development of a revised version of a standard TB transmission model able to capture the structure of these pathways. As a test case we used the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP), the Brazilian conditional cash transfer scheme. RESULTS: Assessing one of these pathways, we estimated that BFP can reduce TB prevalence by 4% by improving households income and thus their nutritional status. When looking at the direct impact via malnutrition (not income mediated) the impact was 33%. This variation was due to limited data availability, uncertainties on data transformation and the pathway approach taken. These results are preliminary and only aim to serve as illustrative example of the methodological challenges encountered in this first modelling attempt, nonetheless they suggest the potential added value of integrating TB standard of care with social protection strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Results are to be confirmed with further analysis. However, by developing a generalizable modelling framework, S-PROTECT proved that the modelling of social protection is complex, but doable and allowed to draw the research road map for the future in this field.