Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors reduce the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in people with heart failure without diabetes: An analysis of real-world, cohort data.

AIM: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is), used as a glucose-lowering therapy in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), have significant cardiorenal benefits, reducing hospitalization for heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality in patients with and without T2D. Recent clinical trial evidence suggests their potential utility in preventing incident T2D among the high-risk HF populations. Therefore, we aimed to assess whether this finding was reproducible in a real-world setting. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 484 643 patients with HF, without baseline diabetes, prescribed either angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers with/without SGLT2is (treatment, n = 42 018; reference, n = 442 625) across 95 global health care organizations, using a large real-world ecosystem. Propensity score matching balanced arms 1:1 for confounders (n = 39 168 each arm). Subgroup analysis further evaluated the impact on patients with prediabetes and the efficacy of dapagliflozin/empagliflozin, specifically, on incident T2D and secondary outcomes, including all-cause mortality, acute pulmonary oedema and hospitalization. RESULTS: Treatment with SGLT2is significantly reduced incident T2D {hazard ratio (HR) 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63, 0.75]} in patients with HF. The analysis of patients with prediabetes found that SGLT2is further reduced incident T2D [HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.45, 0.80)]. The magnitude of reduction in incident T2D was higher in patients prescribed dapagliflozin [HR 0.47 (95% CI 0.39, 0.56)] versus empagliflozin [HR 0.81 (95% CI 0.70, 0.93)]. CONCLUSION: Treatment with SGLT2is in patients with HF was associated with a reduced risk of incident T2D, most strikingly in people with prediabetes.

The synergistic impact of type 2 diabetes and MASLD on cardiovascular, liver, diabetes-related and cancer outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We examined the impact of a co-diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) on patient outcomes. METHODS: Using TriNetX, a global federated research network (n = 114 million), we undertook two retrospective cohort studies, using time-to-event analysis. Analysis 1 compared MASLD with T2D to MASLD alone; analysis 2 compared T2D with MASLD to T2D alone. Propensity score matching using greedy nearest neighbour (calliper .1) balanced the cohorts (1:1) for significant covariates. Primary outcomes were cardiovascular, liver, diabetes-related, and cancer events over 5 years. RESULTS: Analysis 1 (n = 95 275): a co-diagnosis of T2D significantly increased the risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (HR 1.39; CI: 1.34, 1.44), ischaemic stroke (HR 1.45; CI: 1.35, 1.56), heart failure (HR 1.42; CI: 1.36, 1.49), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.09; CI: 1.03, 1.16), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 1.96; CI: 1.69, 2.27), pancreatic cancer (HR 1.25; CI: 1.06, 1.48) and liver-related complications over 5 years from MASLD diagnosis. Analysis 2 (n = 15 208): a co-diagnosis of MASLD significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.11; CI: 1.02, 1.22), IHD (HR 1.181; CI: 1.08, 1.29), hepatocellular (HR 50.31; CI: 6.94, 364.72), pancreatic (HR 1.78; CI: 1.12, 2.84), breast (HR 1.43; CI: 1.09, 1.88) and renal cancer (HR 2.01; CI: 1.24, 3.26), and diabetic neuropathy (HR 1.17; CI: 1.09, 1.27) over 5 years from metformin initiation. CONCLUSIONS: T2D significantly potentiates the risk of cardiovascular, malignancy and liver-related outcomes in people with MASLD. The effect of MASLD on people with T2D, although less dramatic, still potentiated risk of death, IHD, malignancy and peripheral neuropathy.

Risk of adverse events in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The clinical impact of Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) in patients with atrial fibrillation(AF) is still controversial. AIM: To evaluate the 1-year risk of all-cause death, thromboembolic events, and bleeding in AF-NAFLD patients. METHODS: Retrospective study with a health research network(TriNetX). AF patients on oral anticoagulation(OAC) were categorized according to the presence of NAFLD into two groups. The primary outcomes were the 1-year risks of: i) a composite cardiovascular outcome (all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiac arrest, and pulmonary embolism); and ii) a composite hemorrhagic outcome(intracranial hemorrhage and gastrointestinal bleeding). Cox regression analysis before and after propensity-score-matching(PSM) was used to estimate Hazard Ratio(HR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI). Sensitivity analyses investigated the risk associated with cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, and type of OAC(warfarin vs non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants(NOAC). RESULTS: We identified 22,636 AF-NAFLD patients (69±12 years, 46.7% females) and 391,014 AF patients without liver disease(72±12 years, 42.7% females). NAFLD was associated with a higher risk of composite cardiovascular (HR 1.54,95%CI 1.47-1.61) and hemorrhagic (HR 1.56,95%CI 1.42-1.72) outcomes. This was consistent also for all the single outcomes. Cirrhotic and thrombocytopenic AF-NAFLD patients showed the highest risks. Compared to AF-NAFLD patients on NOAC, those on warfarin were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular and hemorrhagic outcomes. CONCLUSION: In AF patients, NAFLD is associated with a higher 1-year risk of adverse events, with the risk of adverse events progressively increasing from non-cirrhotic to cirrhotic and from non-thrombocytopenic to thrombocytopenic patients. NOACs were associated with a better effectiveness and safety profile compared to warfarin.

Denosumab, for osteoporosis, reduces the incidence of type 2 diabetes, risk of foot ulceration and all-cause mortality in adults, compared with bisphosphonates: An analysis of real-world, cohort data, with a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To evaluate the impact of denosumab on (i) the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), and (ii) long-term health outcomes (microvascular [neuropathy, retinopathy, nephropathy] and macrovascular [cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular accident] complications, and all-cause mortality) in patients with T2D, before (iii) combining results with prior studies using meta-analysis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data in a large global federated database (TriNetX; Cambridge, MA) was conducted from 331 375 patients, without baseline T2D or cancer, prescribed either denosumab (treatment, n = 45 854) or bisphosphonates (control, n = 285 521), across 83 healthcare organizations. Propensity score matching (1:1) of confounders was undertaken that resulted in 45 851 in each cohort. Secondary analysis further evaluated the impact of denosumab on long-term health outcomes in patients with T2D. Additionally, we systematically searched prior literature that assessed the association between denosumab and T2D. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias and evidence quality were assessed using Cochrane-endorsed tools. RESULTS: Denosumab (vs. bisphosphonates) was associated with a lower risk of incident T2D over 5 years (hazard ratio 0.83 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.78-0.88]). Secondary analysis showed significant risk reduction in all-cause mortality (0.79 [0.72-0.87]) and foot ulceration (0.67 [0.53-0.86]). Also, pooled results from four studies (three observational, one randomized controlled trial) following meta-analysis showed a reduced relative risk (RR [95% CI]) for incident T2D in patients prescribed denosumab (0.83 [0.79-0.87]) (I2 = 10.76%). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest cohort study to show that denosumab treatment is associated with a reduced RR of incident T2D, as well as an associated reduced RR of all-cause mortality and microvascular complications, findings that may influence guideline development in the treatment of osteoporosis, particularly in patients who are at a high risk of T2D.

Liver Fibrosis Assessed Via Noninvasive Tests Is Associated With Incident Heart Failure in a General Population Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine whether liver fibrosis is associated with heart failure in a general population cohort, and if genetic polymorphisms (PNPLA3 rs738409; TM6SF2 rs58542926), linked to increased risk of liver fibrosis and decreased risk of coronary artery disease, modify this association. METHODS: Using UK Biobank data, we prospectively examined the relationship between noninvasive fibrosis markers (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] fibrosis score [NFS], Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4] and aspartate transaminase [AST] to platelet ratio index [APRI]) and incident hospitalization/death from heart failure (n = 413,860). Cox-regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for incident heart failure. Effects of PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 on the association between liver fibrosis and heart failure were estimated by stratifying for genotype and testing for an interaction between genotype and liver fibrosis using a likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: A total of 12,527 incident cases of heart failure occurred over a median of 10.7 years. Liver fibrosis was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization or death from heart failure (multivariable adjusted high-risk NFS score HR, 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.47-1.76; P < .0001; FIB-4 HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.55-1.84; P < .0001; APRI HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.56-2.19; P < .0001; combined fibrosis scores HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.44-2.49; P < .0001). These associations persisted for people with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), MASLD with alcohol consumption (Met-ALD), and harmful alcohol consumption. PNPLA3 rs738409 GG and TM6SF2 rs58542926 TT did not attenuate the positive association between fibrosis markers and heart failure. For PNPLA3, a statistically significant interaction was found between PNPLA3 rs738409, FIB-4, APRI score, and heart failure. CONCLUSION: In the general population, serum markers of liver fibrosis are associated with increased hospitalization/death from heart failure. Genetic polymorphisms associated with liver fibrosis were not positively associated with elevated heart failure risk.

Effect of a Low-Calorie Dietary Intervention on Liver Health and Body Weight in Adults with Metabolic-Dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) and Overweight/Obesity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic-dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) is a common cause of chronic liver disease. This review assessed the efficacy of a Low-Calorie Diet (LCD) on liver health and body weight in people living with MASLD and obesity. METHODS: The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021296501), and a literature search was conducted using multiple databases. The key inclusion criteria were randomised controlled trials or cohort studies, obesity/overweight and MASLD. Two authors screened abstracts, reviewed full texts and performed data extraction and quality assessment. The primary outcome was the change in the serum ALT, and secondary outcomes included the changes in the serum AST, intrahepatic lipid content (IHL), quantified non-invasively via MRI/MRS, and body weight. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included. The LCD reduced body weight by 9.1 kg versus the control (95%CI: -12.4, -5.8) but not serum ALT (-5.9 IU/L, -13.9, 2.0). Total Dietary Replacement (TDR) reduced IHL by -9.1% vs. the control (-15.6%, -2.6%). The Mediterranean-LCD for ≥12 months reduced ALT (-4.1 IU/L, -7.6, -0.5) and for 24 months reduced liver stiffness versus other LCDs. The Green-Mediterranean-LCD reduced IHL, independent of body weight. Limited studies assessed those of Black or Asian ethnicity, and there was heterogeneity in the methods assessing the liver fat content and fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: In people with MASLD and obesity, an LCD intervention reduces IHL and body weight. Trials should focus on the recruitment of Black and Asian ethnicity participants.

Ultra-processed food and non-communicable diseases in the United Kingdom: A narrative review and thematic synthesis of literature.

The social and economic constructs of the United Kingdom (UK) provide a fertile food environment for the dramatic expansion in the ultra-processed food (UPF) market, driving increased UPF consumption. This has coincided with the significant increase in the incidence and prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, with an inherent impact on morbidity and mortality. Our review aims to assess the current epidemiological and public health trends in the United Kingdom, specifically examining consumption of UPFs and subsequent development of NCDs, summarizing existing meta-analytical and experimental approaches. First, we address important socioeconomic and psychosocial domains that may contribute to increased availability and consumption of UPF. Additionally, we explore the putative mechanistic basis for the association between UPFs and NCDs: partly attributable to their energy density, the macro- and micronutrient composition (including high refined carbohydrate, saturated, and trans fats composition, in addition to low fiber and protein content), and artificially engineered additives and other compounds that adversely affect health in inadequately researched pathophysiological pathways. This review highlights the importance of promoting minimally processed diets to both clinical and political decision makers.

High intake of ultra-processed food is associated with dementia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Poor cardiometabolic health is associated with dementia. Considering previous meta-analyses have confirmed associations between ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and cardiometabolic disease, we were interested in the contribution of UPF consumption to the risk of developing dementia. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all records registered on Ovid Medline and Web of Science from inception until December 2022 [PROSPERO (CRD42023388363)]. Studies that assessed UPF consumption in adults, determined according to NOVA, and that reported dementia (Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia and mild cognitive impairment) determined by clearly stated diagnostic criteria (including formal assessment of dementia or use of diagnostic codes) were included. The association between UPF consumption and dementia was assessed using random-effects meta-analysis, controlling for confounding variables. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and evidence credibility evaluated using the NutriGrade system. RESULTS: Seven thousand ten records were screened, and 122 records underwent full text review. From these, 10 observational (8 longitudinal) studies, analysing 867,316 individuals, were included. Included studies adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and co-morbidity, alongside other confounders. High (vs. low) intake of UPF was associated with increased risk of dementia (pooled relative risk 1.44 (95% confidence interval 1.09-1.90) (p = 0.02)) (I2 = 97.0%), although moderate (vs. low) intake of UPF was not (1.12 (0.96-1.31) (0.13)) (85.0%). Funnel plots demonstrate low risk of publication bias. CONCLUSION: High UPF consumption is associated with dementia. Public health measures to reduce overconsumption of UPFs are imperative to reduce the burden of dementia.

Mendelian randomisation reveals Sodium-glucose Cotransporter-1 inhibition's potential in reducing Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease risk.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has no approved pharmacological treatments. Sodium-glucose cotransporter (SGLT)-1 is a glucose transporter that mediates small intestinal glucose absorption. We evaluated the impact of genetically proxied SGLT-1 inhibition (SGLT-1i) on serum liver transaminases and NAFLD risk. We used a missense variant, rs17683430, in the SLC5A1 gene (encoding SGLT1) associated with HbA1c in a genome-wide association study (n = 344 182) to proxy SGLT-1i. Outcome genetic data comprised 1483 NAFLD cases and 17 781 controls. Genetically proxied SGLT-1i was associated with reduced NAFLD risk (OR 0.36; 95%CI 0.15, 0.87; P = .023) per 1 mmol/mol HbA1c reduction, and with reductions in liver enzymes (alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, gamma-glutamyl transferase). Genetically proxied HbA1c, not specifically via SGLT-1i, was not associated with NAFLD risk. Colocalisation did not demonstrate genetic confounding. Overall, genetically proxied SGLT-1i is associated with improved liver health, this may be underpinned by SGLT-1-specific mechanisms. Clinical trials should evaluate the impact of SGLT-1/2 inhibitors on the prevention and treatment of NAFLD.

Ultra-Processed Food Intake Is Associated with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes (T2D) due to chronic caloric excess and physical inactivity. Previous meta-analyses have confirmed associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and obesity and T2D. We aim to ascertain the contribution of UPF consumption to the risk of developing NAFLD. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO (CRD42022368763)). All records registered on Ovid Medline and Web of Science were searched from inception until December 2022. Studies that assessed UPF consumption in adults, determined according to the NOVA food classification system, and that reported NAFLD determined by surrogate (steatosis) scores, imaging or liver biopsy were included. The association between UPF consumption and NAFLD was assessed using random-effects meta-analysis methods. Study quality was assessed, and evidence credibility evaluated, using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale and NutriGrade systems, respectively. A total of 5454 records were screened, and 112 records underwent full text review. From these, 9 studies (3 cross-sectional, 3 case-control and 3 cohort), analysing 60,961 individuals, were included in the current review. Both moderate (vs. low) (pooled relative risk 1.03 (1.00-1.07) (p = 0.04) (I2 = 0%)) and high (vs. low) (1.42 (1.16-1.75) (<0.01) (I2 = 89%)) intake of UPF significantly increased the risk of NAFLD. Funnel plots demonstrate low risk of publication bias. Consumption of UPF is associated with NAFLD with a dose-response effect. Public health measures to reduce overconsumption of UPF are imperative to reduce the burden of NAFLD, and the related conditions, obesity and T2D.

The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis on adverse clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently co-exist. We assess the impact of having NAFLD on adverse clinical outcomes and all-cause mortality for people with CKD. METHODS: A total of 18,073 UK Biobank participants identified to have CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria > 3 mg/mmol) were prospectively followed up by electronic linkage to hospital and death records. Cox-regression estimated the hazard ratios (HR) associated with having NAFLD (elevated hepatic steatosis index or ICD-code) and NAFLD fibrosis (elevated fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score or NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS)) on cardiovascular events (CVE), progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 56.2% of individuals with CKD had NAFLD at baseline, and 3.0% and 7.7% had NAFLD fibrosis according to a FIB-4 > 2.67 and NFS ≥ 0.676, respectively. The median follow-up was 13 years. In univariate analysis, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVE (HR 1.49 [1.38-1.60]), all-cause mortality (HR 1.22 [1.14-1.31]) and ESRD (HR 1.26 [1.02-1.54]). Following multivariable adjustment, NAFLD remained an independent risk factor for CVE overall (HR 1.20 [1.11-1.30], p < 0.0001), but not ACM or ESRD. In univariate analysis, elevated NFS and FIB-4 scores were associated with increased risk of CVE (HR 2.42 [2.09-2.80] and 1.64 [1.30-2.08]) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.82 [2.48-3.21] and 1.82 [1.47-2.24]); the NFS score was also associated with ESRD (HR 5.15 [3.52-7.52]). Following full adjustment, the NFS remained associated with an increased incidence of CVE (HR 1.19 [1.01-1.40]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.31 [1.13-1.52]). CONCLUSIONS: In people with CKD, NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CVE, and the NAFLD fibrosis score is associated with an elevated risk of CVE and worse survival.

Childhood, adolescent, and adulthood adiposity are associated with risk of PCOS: a Mendelian randomization study with meta-analysis.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the influence of body composition during childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, as well as metabolic parameters, on incident polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Excess body fat, even during childhood/adolescence, and metabolic parameters, suggestive of hyperinsulinaemia/insulin resistance, significantly impact the risk of PCOS in a linear fashion. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) data have demonstrated an association between adulthood overweight/obesity and development of PCOS. However, the contribution of body composition in childhood/adolescence to incident PCOS is unclear, as is the influence of childhood overweight/obesity. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis and integrated our results with a previously published systematic review. Two blinded investigators screened abstracts published between November 2010 and May 2021. Furthermore, we incorporated summary statistics from genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in subjects of European ancestry. Adult overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; in Asian subjects, overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We utilized meta-analysis and MR together to allow synthesis of genetic and observational data. For the systematic review, the search revealed 71 studies, of which 63 were included in meta-analysis by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using the random-effects model. Furthermore, we conducted a two-sample MR study of GWAS data to determine the impact of childhood and adult body size (defined categorically by BMI and childhood body size proportions), abnormal body composition and metabolic parameters (higher fasting serum insulin or lower sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentration) on the odds of incident PCOS via the inverse-variance weighted method. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Significant associations were shown between body composition and PCOS incidence. From the systematic review/meta-analysis, women with overweight (OR 3.80, 2.87-5.03), obesity (OR 4.99, 3.74-6.67), and central obesity (OR 2.93, 2.08-4.12) had increased odds of PCOS. For adolescents with overweight and/or obesity, the PCOS odds were greater than for adults. From MR, for every standard deviation increase in BMI (4.8 kg/m2), the odds of PCOS increased by 2.76 (2.27-3.35). Childhood body size had an independent effect on PCOS odds after adjusting for adult body size (OR: 2.56, 1.57-4.20). Genetically determined body fat percentage (OR 3.05, 2.24-4.15), whole body fat mass (OR 2.53, 2.04-3.14), fasting serum insulin (OR 6.98, 2.02-24.13), and SHBG concentration (OR 0.74, 0.64-0.87) were all significantly associated with PCOS in a linear relation. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The meta-analysis included studies which were cross-sectional and retrospective, limiting our ability to determine causality. MR was limited by interrogating subjects only of European ancestry and including cases classified by either self-diagnosis or diagnostic criteria. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our study demonstrates for the first time a critical role of the impact of excess childhood/adolescent adiposity on the pathophysiology of adult PCOS. Our results, driven by genetically determined childhood/adolescent body composition, higher BMI, hyperinsulinaemia, and lower SHBG, clearly favour obesity driving the metabolic, but not reproductive, PCOS phenotype. Overall, effective weight maintenance, even from the early years, is likely to reduce the risk of this reproductive endocrine disorder. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): S.S.Z. was funded by a National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Lectureship. U.A. is chair of the NIHR Steering Committee Trial-CASSANDRA-DN. No other authors declare any sources of funding or relevant conflicts of interest. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relations that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Mobility Trends and the Associated Rise in Population-Level Physical Inactivity: Insights From International Mobile Phone and National Survey Data.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced physical activity (PA) levels. This is important as physical inactivity is linked to poor COVID-19 outcomes. This study aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on greenspace and residence mobility, walking levels and in turn how these translated to trends in (UK) PA levels. Methods: Google Mobility Reports, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and Apple Mobility geospatial datasets were interrogated for international data. Residence mobility represents home mobility, greenspace mobility includes parks, walking direction requests is proportion of walking directions; stringency index measures lockdown intensity. The Sports England Active Lives Survey dataset was assessed for complementary changes in English PA levels. Results: Using mobility data of 10 countries we observed that during lockdown there were reductions in greenspace mobility and walking directions alongside increased residence mobility; more pronounced changes were seen in countries with higher stringency indices. From a UK perspective, complementary English PA survey data demonstrated the impact of these mobility changes on the proportion and demographic characteristics of PA levels. The most vulnerable in society, the elderly (ages 75+) and Black and Asian minority ethnicity (BAME) individuals were more likely to become physically inactive. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic reduced greenspace mobility and walking direction requests globally. Complementary assessment of English PA levels demonstrated a greater proportion of the population became inactive. Demographics (75+ and BAME) prone to worse COVID-19 outcomes became disproportionately inactive. UK Urban planning should prioritize greenspace development. This could improve city walkability and PA levels.

The Impact of Diabetes and Glucose-Lowering Therapies on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence and Overall Survival.

PURPOSE: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United Kingdom has increased 60% in the past 10 years. The epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes are contributing factors. In this article, we examine the impact of diabetes and glucose-lowering treatments on HCC incidence and overall survival (OS). METHODS: Data from 1064 patients diagnosed with chronic liver disease (CLD) (n = 340) or HCC (n = 724) were collected from 2007 to 2012. Patients with HCC were followed up prospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression determined HCC risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to examine survival and Cox proportional hazards analysis estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for death according to use of glucose-lowering therapies. FINDINGS: Diabetes prevalence was 39.6% and 10.6% within the HCC and CLD cohorts, respectively. The odds ratio for having HCC in patients with diabetes was 5.55 (P < 0.001). Univariate analysis found an increased association of HCC with age, sex, cirrhosis, hemochromatosis, alcohol abuse, diabetes, and Child's Pugh score. In multivariate analysis age, sex, cirrhosis, Child's Pugh score, diabetes status, and insulin use retained significance. Diabetes status did not significantly affect OS in HCC; however, in people with diabetes and HCC, metformin treatment was associated with improved OS (mean survival, 31 vs 24 months; P =0.016; HR for death = 0.75; P = 0.032). IMPLICATIONS: Diabetes is significantly associated with HCC in the United Kingdom. Metformin treatment is associated with improved OS after HCC diagnosis. Treatment of diabetes should be appropriately reviewed in high-risk populations, with specific consideration of the potential hepatoprotective effects of metformin in HCC.

Low Screening Rates Despite a High Prevalence of Significant Liver Fibrosis in People with Diabetes from Primary and Secondary Care.

Diabetes is a driver of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and fibrosis. We determine current practices in examining liver fibrosis in people with diabetes and record prevalence levels in primary and secondary care. We extracted HbA1c results ≥48 mmol/mol to identify people with diabetes, then examined the proportion who had AST, ALT, and platelets results, facilitating calculation of non-invasive fibrosis tests (NIT), or an enhanced liver fibrosis score. Fibrosis markers were requested in only 1.49% (390/26,090), of which 29.7% (n = 106) had evidence of significant fibrosis via NIT. All patients at risk of fibrosis had undergone transient elastography (TE), biopsy or imaging. TE and biopsy data showed that 80.6% of people with raised fibrosis markers had confirmed significant fibrosis. We also show that fibrosis levels as detected by NIT are marginally lower in patients treated with newer glucose lowering agents (sodium-glucose transporter protein 2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists). In conclusion by utilising a large consecutively recruited dataset we demonstrate that liver fibrosis is infrequently screened for in patients with diabetes despite high prevalence rates of advanced fibrosis. This highlights the need for cost-effectiveness analyses to support the incorporation of widespread screening into national guidelines and the requirement for healthcare practitioners to incorporate NAFLD screening into routine diabetes care.

Validation of the liver traffic light test as a predictive model for survival and development of liver-related events.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Liver disease mortality rates continue to rise due to late diagnosis. We need noninvasive tests to be made available in the community that can identify patients at risk from a serious liver-related event (SLE). We examine the performance of a blood test, the liver traffic light test (LTLT), with regard to its ability to predict survival and SLEs. METHODS: Using routinely gathered clinical data, sequential LTLT test results from 4854 individuals with suspected liver disease were prospectively analyzed (median follow-up 41 months). An SLE was defined as the development of cirrhosis, liver failure, ascites, or varices. Patients were graded as follows: red (high risk), amber (intermediate risk), and green (low risk). RESULTS: Overall, 565 individuals experienced an SLE (11.6%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the continuous LTLT variable was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.89) for prediction of an SLE and 0.81 (0.78-0.84) for mortality. When categorized into red/amber/green grades, a red LTLT result predicted an SLE with negative and positive predictive values of 0.97 and 0.29, respectively. A red LTLT score predicted mortality with negative and positive predictive values of 0.98 and 0.18, respectively. Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated increased mortality and SLEs in the red group versus the green and amber groups (P < 0.001) and an increase in SLEs in the amber versus green group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Here, the LTLT is further validated for the prediction of survival and SLE development. The LTLT could aid primary care risk management and referral pathways with the aim of detecting and treating liver disease earlier in the general population.

The Impact of Macronutrient Intake on Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD): Too Much Fat, Too Much Carbohydrate, or Just Too Many Calories?

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing epidemic, in parallel with the obesity crisis, rapidly becoming one of the commonest causes of chronic liver disease worldwide. Diet and physical activity are important determinants of liver fat accumulation related to insulin resistance, dysfunctional adipose tissue, and secondary impaired lipid storage and/or increased lipolysis. While it is evident that a hypercaloric diet (an overconsumption of calories) promotes liver fat accumulation, it is also clear that the macronutrient composition can modulate this risk. A number of other baseline factors modify the overfeeding response, which may be genetic or environmental. Although it is difficult to disentangle the effects of excess calories vs. specifically the individual effects of excessive carbohydrates and/or fats, isocaloric, and hypercaloric dietary intervention studies have been implemented to provide insight into the effects of different macronutrients, sub-types and their relative balance, on the regulation of liver fat. What has emerged is that different types of fat and carbohydrates differentially influence liver fat accumulation, even when diets are isocaloric. Furthermore, distinct molecular and metabolic pathways mediate the effects of carbohydrates and fat intake on hepatic steatosis. Fat accumulation appears to act through impairments in lipid storage and/or increased lipolysis, whereas carbohydrate consumption has been shown to promote liver fat accumulation through de novo lipogenesis. Effects differ dependent upon carbohydrate and fat type. Saturated fat and fructose induce the greatest increase in intrahepatic triglycerides (IHTG), insulin resistance, and harmful ceramides compared with unsaturated fats, which have been found to be protective. Decreased intake of saturated fats and avoidance of added sugars are therefore the two most important dietary interventions that can lead to a reduction in IHTG and potentially the associated risk of developing type 2 diabetes. A healthy and balanced diet and regular physical activity must remain the cornerstones of effective lifestyle intervention to prevent the development and progression of NAFLD. Considering the sub-type of each macronutrient, in addition to the quantity, are critical determinants of liver health.

Can routine blood tests be modelled to detect advanced liver disease in the community: model derivation and validation using UK primary and secondary care data.

OBJECTIVES: Most patients are unaware they have liver cirrhosis until they present with a decompensating event. We therefore aimed to develop and validate an algorithm to predict advanced liver disease (AdvLD) using data widely available in primary care. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Logistic regression was performed on routinely collected blood result data from the University Hospital Southampton (UHS) information systems for 16 967 individuals who underwent an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (2005-2016). Data were used to create a model aimed at detecting AdvLD: 'CIRRhosis Using Standard tests' (CIRRUS). Prediction of a first serious liver event (SLE) was then validated in two cohorts of 394 253 (UHS: primary and secondary care) and 183 045 individuals (Care and Health Information Exchange (CHIE): primary care). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Model creation dataset: cirrhosis or portal hypertension. Validation datasets: SLE (gastro-oesophageal varices, liver-related ascites or cirrhosis). RESULTS: In the model creation dataset, 931 SLEs were recorded (5.5%). CIRRUS detected cirrhosis or portal hypertension with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.92). Overall, 3044 (0.8%) and 1170 (0.6%) SLEs were recorded in the UHS and CHIE validation cohorts, respectively. In the UHS cohort, CIRRUS predicted a first SLE within 5 years with an AUC of 0.90 (0.89 to 0.91) continuous, 0.88 (0.87 to 0.89) categorised (crimson, red, amber, green grades); and AUC 0.84 (0.82 to 0.86) and 0.83 (0.81 to 0.85) for the CHIE cohort. In patients with a specified liver risk factor (alcohol, diabetes, viral hepatitis), a crimson/red cut-off predicted a first SLE with a sensitivity of 72%/59%, specificity 87%/93%, positive predictive value 26%/18% and negative predictive value 98%/99% for the UHS/CHIE validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: Identification of individuals at risk of AdvLD within primary care using routinely available data may provide an opportunity for earlier intervention and prevention of liver-related morbidity and mortality.