Reduced norovirus epidemic follows increased sales of hand hygiene products in Japan, 2020-2021.

During the recent emergence of COVID-19, an increased practice of hand hygiene coincided with the reduced incidence of the norovirus epidemic in Japan, which is similar to experience with the pandemic flu in 2009. We investigated the relationship between the sales of hand hygiene products, including liquid hand soap and alcohol-based hand sanitizer, and the trend of norovirus epidemic. We used national gastroenteritis surveillance data across Japan in 2020 and 2021 and compared the base statistics of incidence of these two years with the average of the previous 10 years (2010-2019). We calculated the correlations (Spearman's Rho) between monthly sales of hand hygiene products and monthly norovirus cases and fitted them to a regression model. In 2020, there was no epidemic, and the incidence peak was the lowest in recent norovirus epidemics. In 2021, the incidence peak was delayed for five weeks to the usual epidemic seasons. Correlation coefficients between monthly sales of liquid hand soap and skin antiseptics and norovirus incidence showed a significantly negative correlation (Spearman's Rho = -0.88 and p = 0.002 for liquid hand soap; Spearman's Rho = -0.81 and p = 0.007 for skin antiseptics). Exponential regression models were fitted between the sales of each hand hygiene product and norovirus cases, respectively. The results suggest hand hygiene using these products is a potentially useful prevention method against norovirus epidemics. Effective ways of hand hygiene for increasing the prevention of norovirus should therefore be studied.

Longitudinal surveillance of influenza in Japan, 2006-2016.

We analysed 2006-2016 national influenza surveillance data in Japan with regards to age-, sex-, and predominant virus-related epidemic patterns and the prevalence of serum influenza virus antibodies. We found a significant increase in influenza prevalence in both children (≤ 19 years old) and adults (≥ 20 years old) over time. The influenza prevalence was higher in children (0.33 [95% CI 0.26-0.40]) than in adults (0.09 [95% CI 0.07-0.11]). Additionally, the mean prevalence of antibodies for A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) was significantly higher in children than in adults, whereas the mean prevalence of antibodies for B lineages was relatively low in both children and adults. There was a biennial cycle of the epidemic peak in children, which was associated with a relatively higher prevalence of B lineages. The female-to-male ratios of the influenza prevalence were significantly different in children (≤ 19 years old; 1.10 [95% CI:1.08-1.13]), adults (20-59 years old; 0.79 [95% CI 0.75-0.82]), and older adults (≥ 60 years old; 1.01 [95% CI 0.97-1.04]). The significant increase in influenza prevalence throughout the study period suggests a change of immunity to influenza infection. Long-term surveillance is important for developing a strategy to monitor, prevent and control for influenza epidemics.

Viral transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 accelerates in the winter, similarly to influenza epidemics.

The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 is anticipated to increase in the winter because of increased viral survival in cold damp air and thus would exacerbate viral spread in community. Analysis to capture the seasonal trend is needed to be prepared for future epidemics. We compared regression models for the 5-week case prior to each epidemic peak week for both the COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in winter and summer. The weekly case increase ratio was compared, using non-paired t tests between seasons. In order to test the robustness of seasonal transmission patterns, the normalized weekly case numbers of COVID-19 and influenza case rates of all seasons were assessed in a combined quadratic regression analysis. In winter, the weekly case increase ratio accelerated before epidemic peaks, similarly, for both COVID-19 and influenza. The quadratic regression models of weekly cases were observed to be convex curves in the winter and concave curves in the spring/summer for both COVID-19 and influenza. A significant increase of case increase ratio (3.19 [95%CI:0.01-6.37, P = .049]) of the COVID-19 and influenza epidemics was observed in winter as compared to spring/summer before the epidemic peak. The epidemic of COVID-19 was found to mirror that of influenza, suggesting a strong underlying seasonal transmissibility. Influenza epidemics can potentially be a useful reference for the COVID-19 epidemics.

Association between growth of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and increased coughing rate in cold temperatures: surveillance in Hokkaido, Japan.

OBJECTIVE: Although the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in winter is thought to increase through viral droplets when coughing, current epidemiological data in this regard are limited. SETTING: Using the national epidemiological surveillance data in the autumn and winter seasons in Hokkaido, Japan, between February 2020 and February 2021, we analysed the relationship between case increase ratio and prevalence rate of coughing in patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in two age groups (0-40s and 50-100s) with concomitant air temperature and humidity. PARTICIPANTS: The 7893 cases of symptomatic PCR-positive patients consisted of 5361 cases in the young age group and 2532 cases in the older age group. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Pearson's correlation analysis and regression models were used to assess the relationships. Sex-adjusted OR of having cough in the young and old age groups in the autumn and winter seasons was calculated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The monthly prevalence rate of coughing in the young age group was negatively correlated with temperature (r=-0.77, p<0.05), and in the old age group it was negatively correlated with humidity (r=-0.71, p<0.05). Quadratic regression models were fitted for the relationship between cold temperatures and rate of coughing rate in the young age group and case increase ratios. The sex-adjusted OR of having a cough in the young age group in winter was 1.18 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.31) as compared with autumn. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest increased rate of coughing contributes to the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 in the winter. An effective control with a focus on these trends should be considered.

Previous Infection Positively Correlates to the Tumor Incidence Rate of Patients with Cancer.

We conducted a 7-year case-control study of people ≥30 years of age on the prevalence of influenza, gastroenteritis, hepatitis, and pneumonia infections to indirectly examine whether these infections correlated to malignant cancer formation. Data were extracted from a large medical claims database of a Japanese social health insurance system; the case group included 2,354 people with their first cancer diagnosis in the 7th year of this study, and the control group included 48,395 people with no cancer diagnosis by the 7th year. The yearly prevalence rates of influenza, gastroenteritis, hepatitis, and pneumonia infections increased throughout the study period. Age-adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in cases 1 year before cancer detection were significantly higher-for influenza 1.29 (95% CI, 1.14-1.46), for gastroenteritis 1.60 (95% CI, 1.41-1.82), for hepatitis 3.38 (95% CI, 2.12-5.37), for pneumonia 2.36 (95% CI, 1.79-3.13), and for any of these four diseases 1.55 (95% CI, 1.40-1.70). In influenza infections, significant ORs were found only in the 2nd and 6th years before cancer diagnosis. For each cancer site, an increased rate of infection prior to cancer diagnosis was observed. Here, we showed that increased infections during the precancerous stage, a possible surrogate for tumor-induced immune suppression, correlated to eventual cancer development.

Estimating Frequency of Probable Autochthonous Cases of Dengue, Japan.

Imported dengue into naive areas is a recognized but unquantified threat. Differentiating imported and autochthonous cases remains problematic. A threshold approach applied to Japan identified several aberrant incidences of dengue. Despite these alerts, no epidemics occurred other than 1 in Yoyogi Park in Tokyo, which was probably an unusual event.

Impact of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival of women with T1N0M0, hormone receptor negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in women with T1N0M0 breast cancers is unclear. While gene expression-based prognostic assays may aid management of women with early estrogen receptor (ER) positive tumors, therapeutic decision-making in women with early stage ER negative tumors remains fraught with difficulties. We investigated the association between adjuvant chemotherapy and overall survival in women with T1N0M0, hormone receptor negative breast cancers. METHOD: All newly diagnosed breast cancer patients with node-negative and hormone receptor negative tumors measuring≤2cm at the University Malaya Medical Centre (Malaysia) from 1993 to 2013 were included. Mortality of patients with and without adjuvant chemotherapy were compared and adjusted for possible confounders using propensity score. RESULTS: Of 6732 breast cancer patients, 341 (5.1%) had small (≤2cm), node-negative and hormone receptor negative tumors at diagnosis. Among them, only 214 (62.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. Five-year overall survival was 88.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 82.0%-94.2%) for patients receiving chemotherapy and 89.6% (95% CI: 85.1%-94.1%) for patients without chemotherapy. Chemotherapy was not associated with survival following adjustment for age, ethnicity, tumor size, tumor grade, HER2 status, lympho-vascular invasion, type of surgery and radiotherapy administration. However, chemotherapy was associated with a significant survival advantage (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.35, 95%CI: 0.14-0.91) in a subgroup of women with high-grade tumors. CONCLUSION: Adjuvant chemotherapy does not appear to be associated with a survival benefit in women with T1N0M0, hormone receptor negative breast cancer except in those with high-grade tumors.

The South to north variation of norovirus epidemics from 2006-07 to 2008-09 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus (NoV) is a major cause of gastroenteritis during the autumn and winter seasons in Japan as well as in other temperate climate regions. Most outbreaks are thought to occur by secondary attacks through person-to-person infection by fecal-oral route. Severe cases are found in young children or patients with chronic diseases. Clarifying the patterns of epidemic diffusion is important for considering effective monitoring and surveillance as well as possible prevention. METHODS: We considered the predominant viral genotype from the laboratory result obtained from Infectious Agents Surveillance Report (IASR) of National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID). We investigated the increase of NoV cases nationwide for the 2006-07 to 2008-09 seasons using sentinel gastroenteritis data collected from about 3000 pediatric clinics on National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) acquired from the kriging method in the geographic information system (GIS). RESULTS: During these three seasons, the majority of the detected virus was GII.4, which ranged from 60.4 to 88.9%. The number of cases (per sentinel site) at the peak week was 22.81 in the 2006-07 season and it decreased in the following seasons. NoV cases began to increase earlier in the southern areas and gradually extended into the northern areas, similarly, over the seasons. The average period from when the increase of cases was detected in the southern area to when it reached the northern area was 12.7 weeks. CONCLUSION: The decrease of the number of sentinel cases at the peak week may suggest the development of herd immunity after a period of high prevalence. Although the NoV epidemic is thought to be associated with cold weather, its cases first increased in the southern area with relatively warm temperature, indicating there are other climate factors involved. Geographic study using the sentinel data could enhance the monitoring and surveillance of and preparedness against epidemics.

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

BACKGROUND: Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. RESULTS: We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a progressively increasing. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial distribution of nationwide influenza outbreak was measured by using a novel WSD method. We showed that spreading rate varied by type and subtypes of influenza virus using WSD as a spatial indicator. This study is the first to show a relationship between influenza epidemic trend by type/subtype and spatial distribution of influenza nationwide in Japan.

Geographic trends and spread of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in the metropolitan areas of Japan studied from the national sentinel data.

The identification of geographic trends of an influenza pandemic is important for analyzing its social epidemic factors. We performed spatiotemporal analyses focusing on the metropolitan areas in Japan by using the influenza-like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance data for the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and seasonal influenza. The epidemic curves and spread features expressed by the kriging method of geographic information system (GIS) and correlations between reported cases and demographic data were analyzed. The incidence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 increased gradually at the beginning and showed more sporadic epidemic features compared to seasonal influenza. However, there were coincidental locations of patient clusters affected by the seasonal influenza, with a significant coefficient for the total sentinel reported cases (r = 0.71, P < 0.01). This suggested similar patterns of the epidemic over seasons. Patient clusters tended to be located in suburban areas, and there seemed to be stronger relationships between epidemics and higher ratio of larger families (with r = 0.26-0.35, P < 0.01, between ratio of families having more than 3 members and total reported cases in Tokyo and Nagoya areas). Whether populous areas had a greater probability of maintaining the epidemic patterns needs to be determined. Nonetheless, the patterns found in this study can be useful for further analyses for epidemic modeling and designing relevant controls.