Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity: a population-based cohort study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.

Clinical spectrum of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iceland: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Iceland. PARTICIPANTS: All individuals who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) between 17 March and 30 April 2020. Cases were identified by three testing strategies: targeted testing guided by clinical suspicion, open invitation population screening based on self referral, and random population screening. All identified cases were enrolled in a telehealth monitoring service, and symptoms were systematically monitored from diagnosis to recovery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of one or more of 19 predefined symptoms during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1564 people positive for SARS-CoV-2, the most common presenting symptoms were myalgia (55%), headache (51%), and non-productive cough (49%). At the time of diagnosis, 83 (5.3%) individuals reported no symptoms, of whom 49 (59%) remained asymptomatic during follow-up. At diagnosis, 216 (14%) and 349 (22%) people did not meet the case definition of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, respectively. Most (67%) of the SARS-CoV-2-positive patients had mild symptoms throughout the course of their disease. CONCLUSION: In the setting of broad access to RT-PCR testing, most SARS-CoV-2-positive people were found to have mild symptoms. Fever and dyspnoea were less common than previously reported. A substantial proportion of SARS-CoV-2-positive people did not meet recommended case definitions at the time of diagnosis.

Disease duration, age at diagnosis and organ damage are important factors for cardiovascular disease in SLE.

OBJECTIVE: To report the incidence rate ratios (IRR) of acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) and cerebrovascular events (CVE) in incident SLE cases from a defined population. To study the risk factors for cardiovascular events in all patients with SLE at our unit. METHODS: Patients with SLE diagnosed from 1981 to 2006 were followed through to 2016. IRRs of AMI and CVE were calculated. The AMI and CVE incidence patterns for patients with SLE were studied in relation to hypertension, smoking, renal dysfunction, anticardiolipin (aCL) antibodies at diagnosis, disease duration and organ damage before an event. RESULTS: 262 patients with SLE were included in the study; of these 175 were from the defined population. Overall, 37 AMI and 44 CVE were recorded. An increased IRR of 3 for AMI was found (p<0.001). Smoking, hypertension and reduced renal function were risk factors for AMI. An increased IRR of 3.3 for ischaemic CVE was found for women (p<0.001). Hypertension and aCL were risk factors for CVE. Organ damage before events was increased. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular events are increased in SLE and are associated with hypertension, smoking and increased damage rate.

[Attitudes and knowledge on sexual matters among 16-year old teenagers]. / Vidhorf og thekking 16 ára unglinga á kynlífstengdu efni.

OBJECTIVE: Sexually transmitted diseases and unplanned pregnancies are social and health issues among Icelandic teenagers and are more prevalent than in neighbouring countries. In 2001 knowledge and attitudes to sexual education, sexually transmitted disease and contraception among 16-year olds were investigated by questionnaire. Knowledge was defective. The study was repeated in 2005-2006 in a larger sample and change over five years estimated after an educational effort on sexual issues was launched by medical students (www.astradur.is). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A survey with 69 multiple choice questions was administered in conjunction with sexual education by medical students. Changes in replies to the same questions were compared between 2001 and 2005-2006 as well as before and after teaching. RESULTS: A total of 201 teenagers were in the first and 417 in the latter study. There was a wish for sexual education in schools and by outside advisers. The parental role was relatively small. Knowledge was inadequate in both, but significant improvement was seen between periods and after the educational effort (p<0.001). Misconceptions were common, such as 13% of boys believing that oral contraceptives protected against sexually transmitted disease, that herpes infection was curable by antibiotics (70% of respondents) and that modern medicine cured HIV (10% of respondents). Attitudes to sexual behavior had not changed by 2005-6 and 66% thought it normal for 14-16 year olds to have sexual intercourse, while only 8% were ready to handle the consequences. CONCLUSION: Misconception and inadequate knowledge on various key aspects of sexuality is common, not least on serious sexually transmitted diseases, which suggests a need for improved sexual education in late primary and early secondary school.

[Actinomycosis in a 70 year old woman with a forgotten intrauterine contraceptive device]. / Geislagerlabólga í sjötugri konu med gleymda lykkju. Sjúkratilfelli og yfirlit um sjúkdóminn.

Actinomycosis is an infectious disease that has been known since the late nineteenth century. In the pre-antibiotic era it was thought to be rather common but with increased use of antimicrobial agents its incidence has decreased significantly. The causative agent, most commonly Actinomyces israelii, is part of the commensal bacterial flora. It can infect any tissue, respects no tissue boundaries and can spread throughout the body. The clinical presentation of this illness can be similar to malignant disease and definite diagnosis is sometimes not apparent until after surgery and histologic examination. We report the case of a 71 year old woman who suffered from actinomycosis of the uterus and ovaries due to a forgotten intrauterine contraceptive device that had been in place for over four decades. The disease presentation was consistent with malignant disease and tumor markers, CA 125, CA 19-9 and CEA, measured in blood were elevated. She was treated successfully with total hysterectomy and bilateral salphingo-oophorectomy, as well as penicillin for six months.