Comparing six cardiovascular risk prediction models in Haiti: implications for identifying high-risk individuals for primary prevention.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are rapidly increasing in low-middle income countries (LMICs). Accurate risk assessment is essential to reduce premature CVD by targeting primary prevention and risk factor treatment among high-risk groups. Available CVD risk prediction models are built on predominantly Caucasian risk profiles from high-income country populations, and have not been evaluated in LMIC populations. We aimed to compare six existing models for predicted 10-year risk of CVD and identify high-risk groups for targeted prevention and treatment in Haiti. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data within the Haiti CVD Cohort Study, including 1345 adults ≥ 40 years without known history of CVD and with complete data. Six CVD risk prediction models were compared: pooled cohort equations (PCE), adjusted PCE with updated cohorts, Framingham CVD Lipids, Framingham CVD Body Mass Index (BMI), WHO Lipids, and WHO BMI. Risk factors were measured during clinical exams. Primary outcome was continuous and categorical predicted 10-year CVD risk. Secondary outcome was statin eligibility. RESULTS: Sixty percent were female, 66.8% lived on a daily income of ≤ 1 USD, 52.9% had hypertension, 14.9% had hypercholesterolemia, 7.8% had diabetes mellitus, 4.0% were current smokers, and 2.5% had HIV. Predicted 10-year CVD risk ranged from 3.6% in adjusted PCE (IQR 1.7-8.2) to 9.6% in Framingham-BMI (IQR 4.9-18.0), and Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranged from 0.86 to 0.98. The percent of the cohort categorized as high risk using model specific thresholds ranged from 1.8% using the WHO-BMI model to 41.4% in the PCE model (χ2 = 1416, p value < 0.001). Statin eligibility also varied widely. CONCLUSIONS: In the Haiti CVD Cohort, there was substantial variation in the proportion identified as high-risk and statin eligible using existing models, leading to very different treatment recommendations and public health implications depending on which prediction model is chosen. There is a need to design and validate CVD risk prediction tools for low-middle income countries that include locally relevant risk factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03892265 .

Self-Reported Antihypertensive Medication Class and Temporal Relationship to Treatment Guidelines.

The greater antihypertensive responses to initial therapy with calcium channel blockers (CCBs) or thiazide-type diuretics than renin-angiotensin system blockers as initial therapy in non-Hispanic Black (NHB) adults was recognized in the US High BP guidelines from 1988 to 2003. The 2014 Report from Panel Members Appointed to the Eighth Joint National Committee (2014 aJNC8 Report) and the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association High Blood Pressure Guideline were the first to recommend CCBs or thiazide-type diuretics rather than renin-angiotensin system blockers as initial therapy in NHB. We assessed the temporal relationship of these recommendations on self-reported CCB or thiazide-type diuretics monotherapy by NHB and NHW adults with hypertension absent compelling indications for ß-blockers or renin-angiotensin system blockers in National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2015 to 2018 versus 2007 to 2012 (after versus before 2014 aJNC8 Report). CCB or thiazide-type diuretics monotherapy was unchanged in NHW adults (17.1% versus 18.1%, P=0.711) and insignificantly higher after 2014 among NHB adults (43.7% versus 38.2%, P=0.204), although CCB monotherapy increased (29.5% versus 21.0%, P=0.021) and renin-angiotensin system blocker monotherapy fell (44.5% versus 31.0%, P=0.008). Although evidence-based CCB monotherapy increased among NHB adults in 2015 to 2018, hypertension control declined as untreated hypertension and monotherapy increased. While a gap between recommended and actual monotherapy persists, evidence-based monotherapy appears insufficient to improve hypertension control in NHB adults, especially given evidence for worsening therapeutic inertia. Initiating treatment with single-pill combinations and timely therapeutic intensification when required to control hypertension are evidence-based, race-neutral options for improving hypertension control among NHB adults.

Cardiovascular Benefits of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition Plus Calcium Channel Blockade in Patients Achieving Tight Blood Pressure Control and With Resistant Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: The 2017 hypertension guidelines lowered systolic blood pressure (BP) goals to <130 mm Hg and redefined resistant hypertension. We investigated if these changes alter the cardiovascular benefits demonstrated by combining a calcium channel blocker (CCB), rather than hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI). METHODS: In this post hoc analysis of the Avoiding Cardiovascular Events Through Combination Therapy in Patients Living with Systolic Hypertension trial (n = 11,506), we compared the primary composite outcome (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for angina, resuscitation after sudden cardiac death, and coronary revascularization) between the 2 combination-treatment limbs in patients achieving a systolic BP ≤130 mm Hg and those with "apparent resistant hypertension" (prescribed ≥4 antihypertensive medications). RESULTS: Among study patients, 5,221 (45.4%) achieved a systolic BP ≤130 mm Hg. There were fewer primary endpoints in the amlodipine/benazepril (9.2%) vs. the HCTZ/benazepril (10.9%) limb (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.99). There were also fewer primary endpoints in the amlodipine/benazepril (12.8%) vs. the HCTZ/benazepril (15.2%) limb (n = 4,451, 38.7%) among patients with apparent resistant hypertension (HR 0.81, 95% CI, 0.70-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy adding a CCB, rather than HCTZ, to an ACEI was more effective in preventing composite cardiovascular events even in hypertensive patients achieving aggressive systolic BP targets as well as in those with apparent resistant hypertension. Our findings add support that most patients, including those following contemporary clinical guidelines, will benefit from this combination. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Trial Number NCT00170950.

Prior Medications and the Cardiovascular Benefits From Combination Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition Plus Calcium Channel Blockade Among High-Risk Hypertensive Patients.

BACKGROUND: The ACCOMPLISH (Avoiding Cardiovascular Events Through Combination Therapy in Patients Living with Systolic Hypertension) trial demonstrated that combination therapy using amlodipine, rather than hydrochlorothiazide, in conjunction with benazepril provided greater cardiovascular risk reduction among high-risk hypertensive patients. Few trials have evaluated the effect of prior antihypertensive therapy used among participants on the study outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a post hoc observational analysis, we examined the characteristics of the drug regimens taken before trial enrollment in the context of the primary composite outcome (death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for angina, resuscitation after sudden cardiac death, and coronary revascularization). In the "primary subgroup" (n=4475), patients previously taking any renin-angiotensin system blockade plus either a diuretic or a calcium channel blocker alone or as part of their antihypertensive regimen, there were 206 of 2193 (9.4%) versus 281 of 2282 (12.3%) primary composite events among those randomized to combination therapy involving amlodipine versus hydrochlorothiazide, respectively (adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.89; P=0.0015). All other participants (n=6975) previously taking any antihypertensive regimen not included in the primary subgroup also benefited from randomization to amlodipine plus benazepril (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.98; P=0.024). Outcomes among most other subgroups, including patients previously taking lipid-lowering medications or dichotomized by prior blood pressure control status, showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: When combined with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, amlodipine provides cardiovascular risk reduction superior to hydrochlorothiazide, largely regardless of prior medication use. These findings add further support for the initial use of this combination regimen among high-risk hypertensive patients.

Hypertension in african americans aged 60 to 79 years: statement from the international society of hypertension in blacks.

A 2014 hypertension guideline raised goal systolic blood pressure (SBP) from <140 mm Hg to <150 mm Hg for adults 60 years and older without diabetes mellitus (DM) or chronic kidney disease (CKD). The authors aimed to define the status of hypertension in black adults 60 to 79 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2012 and provide practical guidance. Black patients were more often aware and treated (P≤.005) for hypertension than whites and had higher rates of DM/CKD (P<.001), similar control to <140/<90 mm Hg with DM/CKD (P=.59), and lower control without DM/CKD (<140/<90 mm Hg and <150/<90 mm Hg, P≤.01). Limited awareness (<30%) and infrequent health care (>30% 0-1 health-care visits per year) occurred in untreated black and white hypertensive patients without DM/CKD and BP ≥140/<90 mm Hg. The literature suggests benefits of treated SBP <140 mm Hg in adults 60 to 79 years without DM/CKD. The International Society of Hypertension in Blacks recommends: (1) continuing efforts to achieve BP <140/<90 mm Hg in those with DM/CK, and (2) identifying hypertensive patients without DM/CKD and BP ≥140/<90 mm Hg and treat to an SBP <140 mm Hg in black adults 60-79 years.

Amlodipine+benazepril is superior to hydrochlorothiazide+benazepril irrespective of baseline pulse pressure: subanalysis of the ACCOMPLISH trial.

Pulse pressure (PP) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) disease and death but few studies have investigated the effect of antihypertensive treatments in relation to PP levels before treatment. The Avoiding Cardiovascular Events Through Combination Therapy in Patients Living With Systolic Hypertension (ACCOMPLISH) trial showed that the combination of benazepril+amlodipine (B+A) is superior to benazepril+hydrochlorothiazide (B+H) in reducing CV events. We aimed to investigate whether the treatment effects in the ACCOMPLISH trial were dependent on baseline PP. High-risk hypertensive patients (n=11,499) were randomized to double-blinded treatment with single-pill combinations of either B+A or B+H and followed for 36 months. Patients were divided into tertiles according to their baseline PP and events (CV mortality/myocardial infarction or stroke) were compared. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the treatment effect (B+A over B+H) were calculated in a Cox regression model with age, coronary artery disease, and diabetes mellitus as covariates and were compared across the tertiles. The event rate was increased in the high tertile of PP compared with the low tertile (7.2% vs 4.4% P<.01). In the high and medium PP tertiles, HRs were 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.95; P=.018) and 0.74 (CI, 0.56-0.98, P=.034), respectively, in favor of B+A. There was no significant difference between the treatments in the low tertile and no significant differences in treatment effect when comparing the HRs between tertiles of PP. B+A has superior CV protection over B+H in high-risk hypertensive patients independent of baseline PP although the absolute treatment effect is enhanced in the higher tertiles of PP where event rates are higher.

Relationship between ambulatory BP and clinical outcomes in patients with hypertensive CKD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Abnormal ambulatory BP (ABP) profiles are commonplace in CKD, yet the prognostic value of ABP for renal and cardiovascular outcomes is uncertain. This study assessed the relationship of baseline ABP profiles with CKD progression and subsequent cardiovascular outcomes to determine the prognostic value of ABP beyond that of clinic BP measurements. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Between 2002 and 2003, 617 African Americans with hypertensive CKD treated to a clinic BP goal of <130/80 mmHg were enrolled in this prospective, observational study. Participants were followed for a median of 5 years. Primary renal outcome was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine, ESRD, or death. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, hospitalized congestive heart failure, stroke, revascularization procedures, cardiovascular death, and ESRD. RESULTS: Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that higher 24-hour systolic BP (SBP), daytime, night-time, and clinic SBP were each associated with subsequent renal (hazard ratio, 1.17-1.28; P<0.001) and cardiovascular outcomes (hazard ratio, 1.22-1.32; P<0.001). After controlling for clinic SBP, ABP measures were predictive of renal outcomes in participants with clinic SBP <130 mmHg (P<0.05 for interaction). ABP predicted cardiovascular outcomes with no interaction based on clinic BP control. CONCLUSIONS: ABP provides additional information beyond that of multiple clinic BP measures in predicting renal and cardiovascular outcomes in African Americans with hypertensive CKD. The primary utility of ABP in these CKD patients was to identify high-risk individuals among those patients with controlled clinic BP.

Predictors of systolic BP <140 mmHg and systolic BP level by randomly assigned treatment group (benazepril plus amlodipine or hydrochlorothiazide) in the ACCOMPLISH Study.

BACKGROUND: The ACCOMPLISH Trial investigated intensive antihypertensive combination treatment with benazepril + amlodipine (B+A) or benazepril + hydrochlorothiazide (B+H) on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with systolic hypertension. We analyzed the baseline predictors of achieving a systolic blood pressure (SBP) <140 mmHg and achieved SBP level by the end of 12 months in both treatment groups. METHODS: Baseline and 12-month SBP was available in 10,506 patients, of whom 6250 had diabetes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used for SBP control at 12 months and multivariable regression models were used for the prediction of SBP at 12 months. A stepwise procedure was used to select significant (p < 0.001) predictors in multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Mean (± SD) BP fell from 145.4/80.1 (± 18.3/10.7) mmHg at randomization to 132.8/74.7 (± 16.0/9.6) mmHg at 12 months. The main baseline predictors of SBP control <140 mmHg were region (USA >Nordic region) and Caucasian ethnicity in both randomization arms. A higher diastolic BP and the use of lipid lowering agents indicated favorable effects in the B+H arm only. The predictors of uncontrolled SBP were: (i) higher baseline SBP values, (ii) higher number of previous antihypertensive medications in both arms, (iii) the previous use of insulin in the B+A arm, and (iv) pre-trial calcium channel blocker (CCB) use in the B+H arm. Additionally, pre-trial use of thiazides and electrocardiogram (ECG)-left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) at baseline predicted higher, and smoking lower absolute SBP in the B+A arm and the use of thiazides and proteinuria a higher SBP in the B+H arm. CONCLUSION: Irrespective of treatment, patients in the USA and Caucasians achieved better SBP control, whereas higher baseline SBP and more previous antihypertensive medications indicated less control. Concomitant use of lipid lowering treatment indicated a better SBP control in the benazepril + hydrochlorothiazide arm. Lastly, insulin use and ECG-LVH in the benazepril + amlodipine arm and proteinuria in the benazepril + hydrochlorothiazide arm indicated poor control.