Towards reliable forecasting of healthcare capacity needs: A scoping review and evidence mapping.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical importance of robust healthcare capacity planning and preparedness for emerging crises. However, healthcare systems must also adapt to more gradual temporal changes in disease prevalence and demographic composition over time. To support proactive healthcare planning, statistical capacity forecasting models can provide valuable information to healthcare planners. This systematic literature review and evidence mapping aims to identify and describe studies that have used statistical forecasting models to estimate healthcare capacity needs within hospital settings. METHOD: Studies were identified in the databases MEDLINE and Embase and screened for relevance before items were defined and extracted within the following categories: forecast methodology, measure of capacity, forecast horizon, healthcare setting, target diagnosis, validation methods, and implementation. RESULTS: 84 studies were selected, all focusing on various capacity outcomes, including number of hospital beds/ patients, staffing, and length of stay. The selected studies employed different analytical models grouped in six items; discrete event simulation (N = 13, 15 %), generalized linear models (N = 21, 25 %), rate multiplication (N = 15, 18 %), compartmental models (N = 14, 17 %), time series analysis (N = 22, 26 %), and machine learning not otherwise categorizable (N = 12, 14 %). The review further provides insights into disease areas with infectious diseases (N = 24, 29 %) and cancer (N = 12, 14 %) being predominant, though several studies forecasted healthcare capacity needs in general (N = 24, 29 %). Only about half of the models were validated using either temporal validation (N = 39, 46 %), cross-validation (N = 2, 2 %) or/and geographical validation (N = 4, 5 %). CONCLUSION: The forecasting models' applicability can serve as a resource for healthcare stakeholders involved in designing future healthcare capacity estimation. The lack of routine performance validation of the used algorithms is concerning. There is very little information on implementation and follow-up validation of capacity planning models.

Genetic polymorphisms in IL-2, IL-10 and FOXP3 are associated with autoimmune neutropenia in early childhood and autoantibody specificity in a Danish cohort.

Autoimmune neutropenia (AIN) in early childhood is characterized by chronic neutropenia and positivity for human neutrophil antibodies (HNA), resulting in the excessive destruction of neutrophils. The association between regulatory T cells (Tregs) and AIN has been described, and in this study, we investigated three Treg-associated genes, IL-2, IL-10 and FOXP3. The frequencies of three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL-2 -330T>G (rs2069762), +114G>T (rs2069763) and IVS3-116 A>G (rs2069772), four SNPs in IL-10 -3575T>A (rs1800890), -1082G>A (rs1800896), -819 C>T (rs1800871) and -592 C>A (rs1800872) and three SNPs in FOXP3 -3499 A>G (rs3761547), -3279 C>A (rs3761548) and -924 A>G (rs2232365) were compared between 166 Danish AIN patients and 358 healthy controls. Disease association was observed for IL-2 IVS3-116 GG (p = 0.0081, OR = 0.35 [0.15-0.80]), IL-10 -3575 TT (p = 0.0078, OR = 1.71 [1.16-2.54]) and IL-10 -1082 AA (p = 0.014, OR = 1.76 [1.14-2.72]) in all patients and FOXP3 -924 (p = 0.0005, A OR = 0.41 [0.25-0.68] and G OR = 2.42 [1.46-4.01]) in male patients. None of the associations were linked to antibody specificity. Disease-associated haplotypes were observed in IL-2 and FOXP3. IL-2 -330T/+114 T/IVS3-116A was associated with anti-FcγRIIIb-positive patients (p = 0.012, OR = 2.07 [1.18-3.62]). FOXP3 -3499A/-3279C/-924A was associated with anti-HNA-1a-positive male patients (p = 0.016, OR = 0.41 [0.20-0.83]), and ACG was associated with female patients, both in the combined group (p = 0.006, OR = NA) and the anti-FcγRIIIb-positive group (p = 0.002, OR = NA). We conclude that our findings reveal a correlation between SNP in Treg-associated genes and AIN, indicating that AIN could be driven by dysfunction of immune homeostatic-evolving Tregs.

Exposure to topiramate and acetazolamide causes endocrine disrupting effects in female rats during estrus.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) is a disease characterized by elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) and is a disease of young females. The first line pharmacological treatments include acetazolamide and topiramate and given the nature of IIH patients and the dosing regimen of these drugs, their effect on the endocrine system is important to evaluate. We aimed to assess the effects of acetazolamide and topiramate on steroid profiles in relevant endocrine tissues. METHODS: Female Sprague Dawley rats received chronic clinically equivalent doses of acetazolamide or topiramate by oral gavage and were sacrificed in estrus. Tissue specific steroid profiles of lateral ventricle CP, 4th ventricle CP, CSF, serum, uterine horn and fundus, ovaries, adrenal glands and pituitary glands were assessed by quantitative targeted LC-MS/MS. We determined luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle stimulating hormones (FSH) levels in paired serum by ELISA. RESULTS: Topiramate increased the concentration of estradiol and decreased the concentration of DHEA in lateral choroid plexus. Moreover, it decreased the concentration of androstenediol in the pituitary gland. Topiramate increased serum LH. Acetazolamide decreased progesterone levels in serum and uterine fundus and increased corticosteroid levels in the adrenal glands. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that both acetazolamide and topiramate have endocrine disrupting effects in rats. Topiramate primarily targeted the choroid plexus and the pituitary gland while acetazolamide had broader systemic effects. Furthermore, topiramate predominantly targeted sex hormones, whereas acetazolamide widely affected all classes of hormones. A similar effect in humans has not yet been documented but these concerning findings warrants further investigations.

The collagen landscape in cancer: profiling collagens in tumors and in circulation reveals novel markers of cancer-associated fibroblast subtypes.

Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) deposit and remodel collagens in the tumor stroma, impacting cancer progression and efficacy of interventions. CAFs are the focus of new therapeutics with the aim of normalizing the tumor microenvironment. To do this, a better understanding of CAF heterogeneity and collagen composition in cancer is needed. In this study, we sought to profile the expression of collagens at multiple levels with the goal of identifying cancer biomarkers. We investigated the collagen expression pattern in various cell types and CAF subtypes in a publicly available single-cell RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) dataset of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Next, we investigated the collagen expression profile in tumor samples across cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and evaluated if specific patterns of collagen expression were associated with prognosis. Finally, we profiled circulating collagen peptides using a panel of immunoassays to measure collagen fragments in the serum of cancer patients. We found that pancreatic stellate cells and fibroblasts were the primary producers of collagens in the pancreas. COL1A1, COL3A1, COL5A1, COL6A1 were expressed in all CAF subtypes, whereas COL8A1, COL10A1, COL11A1, COL12A1 were specific to myofibroblast CAFs (myCAF) and COL14A1 specific to inflammatory CAFs (iCAF). In TCGA database, myCAF collagens COL10A1 and COL11A1 were elevated across solid tumor types, and multiple associations between high expression and worse survival were found. Finally, circulating collagen biomarkers were elevated in the serum of patients with cancer relative to healthy controls with COL11A1 (myCAF) having the best diagnostic accuracy of the markers measured. In conclusion, CAFs express a noncanonical collagen profile with specific collagen subtypes associated with iCAFs and myCAFs in PDAC. These collagens are deregulated at the cellular, tumor, and systemic levels across different solid tumors and associate with survival. These findings could lead to new discoveries such as novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets. © 2023 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Acetazolamide and topiramate lower intracranial pressure through differential mechanisms: The effect of acute and chronic administration.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Diseases of raised intracranial pressure (ICP) cause severe morbidity and mortality. Multiple drugs are utilised to lower ICP including acetazolamide and topiramate. However, the evidence for their use is unclear. We aimed to assess the ICP modulatory effects and molecular effects at the choroid plexus (CP) of acetazolamide and topiramate. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Female rats were implanted with telemetric ICP probes for physiological, freely moving 24/7 ICP recordings. Randomised cross-over studies were performed, where rats received acute (24 h) high doses of acetazolamide and topiramate, and chronic (10 days) clinically equivalent doses of acetazolamide and topiramate, all via oral gavage. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) secretion assays, and RT-qPCR and western blots on in vitro and in vivo CP, were used to investigate drug actions. KEY RESULTS: We demonstrate that acetazolamide and topiramate achieved maximal ICP reduction within 120 min of administration, and in combination doubled the ICP reduction over a 24-h period. Chronic administration of acetazolamide or topiramate lowered ICP by 25%. Topiramate decreased CSF secretion by 40%. Chronic topiramate increased the gene expression of Slc12a2 and Slc4a10 and protein expression of the sodium-dependent chloride/bicarbonate exchanger (NCBE), whereas chronic acetazolamide did not affect the expression of assessed genes. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Acetazolamide and topiramate are effective at lowering ICP at therapeutic levels. We provide the first evidence that topiramate lowers CSF secretion and that acetazolamide and topiramate may lower ICP via distinct molecular mechanisms. Thus, the combination of acetazolamide and topiramate may have utility for treating raised ICP.

Is there evidence of a causal link between childhood maltreatment and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder? A systematic review of prospective longitudinal studies using the Bradford-Hill criteria.

Background: Studies report an elevated risk of maltreatment in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and elevated levels of ADHD in people who suffered childhood maltreatment (CM). However, the direction(s) of causality between CM and ADHD remain unclear-does ADHD create a context for CM, does CM cause ADHD, or both? Objective: This study systematically reviews and qualitatively synthesizes the research evidence relating to this question using Bradford-Hill criteria for establishing causality-strength, temporality, dose-response and plausibility. Methods: We conducted a systematic review, following PRISMA guidelines, of prospective longitudinal studies examining both CM and ADHD. We then used Bradford-Hill criteria to assess the quality of evidence for a causal link between CM and ADHD. Results: All 11 included studies demonstrated an association between CM and ADHD. Seven included evidence for temporality: five suggesting that CM precedes ADHD in the lifespan; two suggesting ADHD precedes CM. Four studies demonstrated a dose response relationship in which greater CM exposure was associated with elevated risk of ADHD. Studies presented a range of plausible mechanisms, including CM causing ADHD through biological programming, versus ADHD causing CM through parental stress. Conclusions: The high quality prospective longitudinal studies reviewed confirm the association between ADHD and CM, but present conflicting evidence about the direction of causality and mechanisms underpinning this association. To better understand the complex interplay between CM and ADHD, more studies using new research designs will be required that can partition effects by type of CM and account for bidirectional effects and other complexities.

Cycle-dependent sex differences in expression of membrane proteins involved in cerebrospinal fluid secretion at rat choroid plexus.

BACKGROUND: Female sex is a known risk factor of brain disorders with raised intracranial pressure (ICP) and sex hormones have been suggested to alter cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics, thus impairing ICP regulation in CSF disorders such as idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH). The choroid plexus (CP) is the tissue producing CSF and it has been hypothesized that altered hormonal composition could affect the activity of transporters involved in CSF secretion, thus affecting ICP. Therefore, we aimed to investigate if expression of various transporters involved in CSF secretion at CP were different between males and females and between females in different estrous cycle states. Steroid levels in serum was also investigated. METHODS: Female and male rats were used to determine sex-differences in the genes encoding for the transporters Aqp1 and 4, NKCC1, NBCe2, NCBE; carbonic anhydrase enzymes II and III (CA), subunits of the Na+/K+-ATPase including Atp1a1, Atp1b1 and Fxyd1 at CP. The estrous cycle stage metestrus (MET) and estrous (ES) were determined before euthanasia. Serum and CP were collected and subjected to RT-qPCR analysis and western blots. Serum was used to measure steroid levels using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). RESULTS: Significant differences in gene expression and steroid levels between males and ES females were found, while no differences were found between male and MET females. During ES, expression of Aqp1 was lower (p < 0.01) and NKCC1 was higher in females compared to males. CAII was lower while CAIII was higher in ES females (p < 0.0001). Gene expression of Atp1a1 was lower in ES compared to male (p = 0.0008). Several of these choroidal genes were also significantly different in MET compared to females in ES. Differences in gene expression during the estrus cycle were correlated to serum level of steroid hormones. Protein expression of AQP1 (p = 0.008) and CAII (p = 0.035) was reduced in ES females compared to males. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates for the first time that expression at CP is sex-dependent and markedly affected by the estrous cycle in female rats. Further, expression was related to hormone levels in serum. This opens a completely new avenue for steroid regulation of the expression of CSF transporters and the close link to the understanding of CSF disorders such as IIH.

Effects of caffeine on intracranial pressure and pain perception in freely moving rats.

OBJECTIVE: Caffeine, a non-selective adenosine receptor (AR) antagonist, is the most consumed psychostimulant in the world. Caffeine has been suggested to regulate cerebrospinal fluid secretion and is known both to alleviate and to trigger headache; however, its effect on the regulation of intracranial pressure (ICP) is not known. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the effects of caffeine on ICP and nociceptive responses. METHODS: Female Sprague-Dawley rats were implanted with a novel telemetric device for continuous ICP recordings, which allowed for continuous recordings in freely moving rats. A single dose of caffeine (30 or 120 mg/kg intraperitoneally) was given. In a second group (non-implanted), the acute effects of 30 mg/kg caffeine on periorbital threshold using Von Frey testing and spontaneous behavior were utilized using an automated behavioral registration platform (Laboratory, Animal, Behavior, Observation, Registration and Analysis System) in a randomized cross-over study. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction and immunofluorescence were used to localize ARs in the choroid plexus. RESULTS: A single dose of 30 mg/kg caffeine lowered the ICP by 35% at 165 min after administration (saline: 0.16 ± 0.9 vs caffeine: -1.18 ± 0.9 ΔmmHg, p = 0.0098) and lasted up to 12 h. Administration of 120 mg/kg caffeine showed a faster onset of decrease in ICP within 15 min by 50% (p = 0.0018) and lasted up to 12 h. The periorbital pain thresholds were higher after 1 h (saline: 224.6 ± 15.1 vs caffeine: 289.5 ± 8.7 g, p = 0.005) and lasted up to 5 h. Caffeine-treated rats had increased locomotor activity, speed, and changed grooming behavior. Expression of AR1 was found in the choroid plexus. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that caffeine has a lowering effect on ICP as an acute treatment. Interestingly, caffeine acutely caused an increased response in cephalic thresholds supporting hypoalgesic effects. Future studies investigating the beneficial effects of caffeine for elevated ICP are warranted.

In Search of Mercury Lost from Sediments in a Previously Contaminated Coastal Area, Harboøre Tange, Denmark.

Concentrations of mercury in sediment and benthic invertebrate fauna of Nissum Broad, North-western Jutland, Denmark were investigated. The western coast of Nissum Broad is Harboøre Tange, along which heavy mercury contamination - caused by discharge from production of mercury containing seed dressers in the 1950 and 1960s - was documented in the 1980s. Recent investigations showed marked decreases in mercury contamination in the near shore sediments along Harboøre Tange since the 1980s and the present investigation was initiated to learn if the loss of mercury from Harboøre Tange had led to an increased mercury contamination in the neighbouring marine area, Nissum Broad. Mercury concentrations in the surface sediment correlated with the content of organic matter and the slope of the regression is a good indicator for the degree of mercury contamination. Average mercury concentrations in the upper 5 cm of the sediments ranged between 0.9 and 71 ng g- 1 dry weight (dw) with only 1 station exceeding the Background Assessment Concentration of 70 ng g- 1 dw. Average mercury concentrations in blue mussels Mytilus edulis (169-260 ng g- 1 dw) and periwinkles Littorina littorea (66-203 ng g- 1 dw) exceeded those in uncontaminated areas and the Environmental Quality Standard of approximately 100 ng g- 1 dw. Present sediment mercury concentrations in Nissum Broad are approximately half of what they were in the 1980s, rendering it unlikely that mercury lost from Harboøre Tange has been deposited there. Sediment and organism concentrations did not show any correlation.

Revisiting Circulating Extracellular Matrix Fragments as Disease Markers in Myelofibrosis and Related Neoplasms.

Philadelphia chromosome-negative chronic myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) arise due to acquired somatic driver mutations in stem cells and develop over 10-30 years from the earliest cancer stages (essential thrombocythemia, polycythemia vera) towards the advanced myelofibrosis stage with bone marrow failure. The JAK2V617F mutation is the most prevalent driver mutation. Chronic inflammation is considered to be a major pathogenetic player, both as a trigger of MPN development and as a driver of disease progression. Chronic inflammation in MPNs is characterized by persistent connective tissue remodeling, which leads to organ dysfunction and ultimately, organ failure, due to excessive accumulation of extracellular matrix (ECM). Considering that MPNs are acquired clonal stem cell diseases developing in an inflammatory microenvironment in which the hematopoietic cell populations are progressively replaced by stromal proliferation-"a wound that never heals"-we herein aim to provide a comprehensive review of previous promising research in the field of circulating ECM fragments in the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of MPNs. We address the rationales and highlight new perspectives for the use of circulating ECM protein fragments as biologically plausible, noninvasive disease markers in the management of MPNs.

Regulation of tumor immunity and immunotherapy by the tumor collagen extracellular matrix.

It has been known for decades that the tumor extracellular matrix (ECM) is dysfunctional leading to loss of tissue architecture and promotion of tumor growth. The altered ECM and tumor fibrogenesis leads to tissue stiffness that act as a physical barrier to immune cell infiltration into the tumor microenvironment (TME). It is becoming increasingly clear that the ECM plays important roles in tumor immune responses. A growing body of data now indicates that ECM components also play a more active role in immune regulation when dysregulated ECM components act as ligands to interact with receptors on immune cells to inhibit immune cell subpopulations in the TME. In addition, immunotherapies such as checkpoint inhibitors that are approved to treat cancer are often hindered by ECM changes. In this review we highlight the ways by which ECM alterations affect and regulate immunity in cancer. More specifically, how collagens and major ECM components, suppress immunity in the complex TME. Finally, we will review how our increased understanding of immune and immunotherapy regulation by the ECM is leading towards novel disruptive strategies to overcome immune suppression.

Glucocorticoids modify intracranial pressure in freely moving rats.

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoids (GCs) are widely prescribed for a variety of inflammatory diseases, but they are also used to treat raised intracranial pressure (ICP) caused by trauma or oedema. However, it is unclear if GCs independently modulate ICP and if GCs are involved in normal ICP regulation. In this study, we aimed to assess the ICP modulatory effects of GCs and their molecular consequences on choroid plexus (CP). METHODS: Adult female rats were implanted with telemetric ICP probes for physiological, continuous ICP recordings in a freely moving setup. Rats received prednisolone or vehicle via oral gavage in a randomized acute (24 h) ICP study. In a subsequent study rats received corticosterone or vehicle in drinking water for a 4-week chronic ICP study. CP were removed, and the expression of genes associated with cerebrospinal fluid secretion were assessed. RESULTS: A single prednisolone dose reduced ICP by up to 48% (P < 0.0001), where ICP was reduced within 7 h and was maintained for at least 14 h. Prednisolone increases ICP spiking (P = 0.0075) while not altering ICP waveforms. Chronic corticosterone reduces ICP by up to 44%, where ICP was lower for the entirety of the 4-week ICP recording period (P = 0.0064). ICP daily periodicity was not altered by corticosterone. Corticosterone ICP reduction was not accompanied by ICP spike differences or alteration in ICP spike periodicity. Chronic corticosterone treatment had modest effects on CP gene expression, lowering the expression of Car2 at CP (P = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: GCs reduce ICP in both the acute and chronic setting to a similar degree. Moreover, GCs did not modify the diurnal rhythm of ICP, suggesting the diurnal variation of ICP periodicity is not under explicit control of GCs. ICP disturbances should be considered a consequence of GC therapy. Based on these experiments, GCs may have broader ICP therapeutic uses, but side effects must be taken into consideration.

Autoreactivity against Denatured Type III Collagen Is Significantly Decreased in Serum from Patients with Cancer Compared to Healthy Controls.

Autoantibodies have the potential as cancer biomarkers as they may associate with the outcome and immune-related adverse events (irAEs) following immunotherapy. Cancer and other fibroinflammatory diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), are associated with excessive collagen turnover leading to collagen triple helix unfolding and denaturation with exposure of immunodominant epitopes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of autoreactivity against denatured collagen in cancer. A technically robust assay to quantify autoantibodies against denatured type III collagen products (anti-dCol3) was developed and then measured in pretreatment serum from 223 cancer patients and 33 age-matched controls. Moreover, the association between anti-dCol3 levels and type III collagen degradation (C3M) and formation (PRO-C3) was investigated. Anti-dCol3 levels were significantly lower in patients with bladder (p = 0.0007), breast (p = 0.0002), colorectal (p < 0.0001), head and neck (p = 0.0005), kidney (p = 0.005), liver (p = 0.030), lung (p = 0.0004), melanoma (p < 0.0001), ovarian (p < 0.0001), pancreatic (p < 0.0001), prostate (p < 0.0001), and stomach cancers (p < 0.0001) compared to controls. High anti-dCol3 levels were associated with type III collagen degradation (C3M, p = 0.0002) but not type III collagen formation (PRO-C3, p = 0.26). Cancer patients with different solid tumor types have downregulated levels of circulating autoantibodies against denatured type III collagen compared to controls, suggesting that autoreactivity against unhealthy type III collagen may be important for tumor control and eradication. This autoimmunity biomarker may have the potential for studying the close relationship between autoimmunity and cancer.

High serum levels of the C-propetide of type V collagen (PRO-C5) are prognostic for short overall survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Introduction: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is characterized by a pronounced fibrotic tumor microenvironment, which impairs treatment response. Type I and V collagens are responsible for the densely packed fibrils in the tumor fibrosis environment. While the role of the major type I collagen in cancer is well described, less is known about the minor type V collagen. Quantifying collagen propeptides in serum has been shown to have prognostic and predictive value. In this study, we evaluated the clinical utility of measuring the propeptide of type V collagen (PRO-C5) in serum from a discovery cohort and a validation cohort of patients with PDAC as well as in non-pancreatic solid tumor types to explore the relevance of the PRO-C5 biomarker in cancer. Methods: Serum PRO-C5 was measured in three cohorts: a discovery cohort (19 healthy controls, 12 patients with chronic pancreatitis and 33 patients with PDAC (stage I-IV)), a validation cohort (800 patients with PDAC (stage I-IV)), and a non-pancreatic solid tumor type cohort of 33 healthy controls and 200 patients with 10 different non-pancreatic solid tumor types. The levels of serum PRO-C5 in patients with cancer were compared to levels in healthy controls. The association between PRO-C5 levels and overall survival (OS) was evaluated in patients with PDAC after adjusting for established prognostic factors. Results: PRO-C5 was significantly increased in serum from patients with PDAC compared to healthy controls (p < 0.001). High PRO-C5 levels were significantly associated with short OS in both the discovery- and the validation cohort, especially in early stages of PDAC (validation cohort stage II, HR = 2.0, 95%CI1.2-3.4). The association was independent of other prognostic parameters including stage, performance status and CA19-9. Furthermore, serum levels of PRO-C5 were significantly increased in serum from patients with other non-pancreatic solid tumor types compared to healthy controls. Conclusion: High levels of serum PRO-C5 is prognostic for short OS in patients with PDAC and may provide clinical value in many other tumor types beyond PDAC. This underlines the importance of type V collagen in tumor fibrosis. PRO-C5 could have the potential to be used in several aspects within drug discovery, patient stratification and drug efficacy.

Genetic variations in low-to-medium-affinity Fcγ receptors and autoimmune neutropenia in early childhood in a Danish cohort.

Autoimmune neutropenia (AIN) in early childhood is caused by autoantibodies directed against antigens on the neutrophil membrane and is a frequent cause of neutropenia in children. Association of AIN with Fcγ receptor (FCGR) 3B variants is well described. In this study, we investigate genetic variations in the FCGR locus and copy number variation of FCGR3B. A total of 130 antibody-positive AIN patients, 64 with specific anti-HNA-1a antibodies and 66 with broad-reacting anti-FcγRIIIb antibodies, were genotyped with a multiplex ligation probe assay and compared with healthy controls. Positive findings were confirmed with real-time q-PCR. We determined copy numbers of the FCGR2 and FCGR3 genes and the following SNPs: FCGR2A Q62W (rs201218628), FCGR2A H166R (rs1801274), FCGR2B I232T (rs1050501), FCGR3A V176F (rs396991), haplotypes for FCGR2B/C promoters (rs3219018/rs780467580), FCGR2C STOP/ORF and HNA-1 genotypes in FCGR3B (rs447536, rs448740, rs52820103, rs428888 and rs2290834). Generally, associations were antibody specific, with all associations being representative of the anti-HNA-1a-positive group, while the only association found in the anti-FcγRIIIb group was with the HNA-1 genotype. An increased risk of AIN was observed for patients with one copy of FCGR3B; the HNA genotypes HNA-1a, HNA-1aa or HNA-1aac; the FCGR2A 166H and FCGR2B 232I variations; and no copies of FCGR2B 2B.4. A decreased risk was observed for HNA genotype HNA-1bb; FCGR2A 166R; FCGR2B 232T; and one copy of FCGR2B promoter 2B.4. We conclude that in our Danish cohort, there was a strong association between variation in the FCGR locus and AIN. The findings of different genetic associations between autoantibody groups could indicate the presence of two different disease entities and disease heterogeneity.

The effect of the Development and Well-Being Assessment as an adjunct to standard referral letters on referral decisions by child and adolescent mental health services - a randomized feasibility trial.

Background: High rejection rates for referrals to child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) are common. The most cited reasons for rejection are that the child does not have a clinical need for assessment and poor quality of the referrals. However, studies of interventions aimed at improving appropriateness of referrals are sparse. Methods: In this randomized feasibility trial, we tested if the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA) as an adjunct to referral letters could improve accuracy of referral decisions made by CAMHS. The primary outcome of the study was the proportion of "correct" referral decisions. Results: The study included 160 children referred to CAMHS. Almost all (95.6%) participants fulfilled criteria for a mental disorder and 82.1% also reported high impact of symptoms. Compared to the group who did not complete the DAWBA, referral decisions for the DAWBA group showed higher sensitivity (0.63 vs. 0.83), specificity (0.30 vs. 0.42), and negative predictive value (0.14 vs. 0.36) as well as slightly higher positive predictive value (0.81 vs. 0.86). Conclusions: The use of the DAWBA as an adjunct to standard referral letters could lead to more correct referral decisions and reduce the proportion of wrongful rejection referrals to CAMHS.

Blood-based tumor fibrosis markers as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in patients with biliary tract cancer.

Biliary tract cancer (BTC) is characterized by a desmoplastic extracellular matrix (ECM). We tested the diagnostic and prognostic use of seven circulating biomarkers of ECM remodeling: pro-peptides of type III collagen (PRO-C3), VI (PRO-C6) and XI (PRO-C11), matrix metalloprotease (MMP) degraded type III collagen (C3M) and type IV collagen (C4M) fragments, granzyme B degraded type IV collagen fragments (C4G) and MMP degraded and citrullinated vimentin (VICM) a marker of macrophage activation. The study included 269 patients with all stages of BTC and 49 patients with benign biliary tract diseases. Serum samples from BTC patients were collected before surgery, or before first- or second-line chemotherapy. C3M, C4M, PRO-C3, PRO-C6, PRO-C11 and VICM levels were elevated in patients with BTC compared to patients with benign disease. Receiver operating characteristics curve analyses identified PRO-C3 (area under curve [AUC] = 0.87) as the ECM marker with the best diagnostic performance. The ECM biomarkers correlated with inflammation biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin-6 [IL-6] and YKL-40) but not with CA19-9. To investigate prognostic performance, patients were split into three cohorts (first-line, second-line and surgery). Elevated ECM biomarker levels were associated with short overall survival (OS), but only pretreatment PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 were associated with OS in both the first-line and second-line settings when adjusting for CA19-9, performance status and stage in a multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Our results indicate that collagen remodeling is increased in patients with BTC and associated with survival. The collagen pro-peptides (PRO-C3 and PRO-C6) could be used as novel biomarkers in these patients.