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1.
J Obstet Gynaecol Res ; 50(5): 890-898, 2024 May.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38403851

AIM: To investigate the impact of letrozole cotreatment progestin-primed ovarian stimulation (PPOS) (Le PPOS) in controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) and the pregnancy outcomes in frozen-thawed embryo transfer cycles. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included women who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). A total of 2575 cycles were included (1675 in the Le PPOS group and 900 in the PPOS group). The primary outcome was the clinical pregnancy rates. The secondary outcome was the live birth rates. RESULTS: In this study, propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to create a perfect match of 379 patients in each group. After matching, the numbers of oocytes retrieved, mature oocytes, fertilization, and clinical pregnancy rates were more favorable in the Le PPOS group than in the PPOS group (all p < 0.05). The multivariable analysis showed that the clinical pregnancy rate was higher in the Le PPOS than in the PPOS group (odds ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-2.04, p = 0.024) after adjusting for potentially confounding factors (age, anti-Müllerian hormone levels, antral follicular count, the type of embryo transferred, number of transferred embryos, body mass index, and follicular stimulating hormone and estradiol levels on starting day). CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective study with a limited sample size suggests that the Le PPOS protocol might be an alternative to the PPOS protocol in women undergoing COS and could lead to better pregnancy outcomes. The results should be confirmed using a formal randomized controlled trial.


Fertilization in Vitro , Letrozole , Ovulation Induction , Pregnancy Rate , Progestins , Humans , Female , Letrozole/administration & dosage , Letrozole/pharmacology , Ovulation Induction/methods , Pregnancy , Adult , Retrospective Studies , Fertilization in Vitro/methods , Progestins/administration & dosage , Progestins/pharmacology , Sperm Injections, Intracytoplasmic/methods , Embryo Transfer/methods , Aromatase Inhibitors/administration & dosage , Aromatase Inhibitors/pharmacology
2.
J Foot Ankle Surg ; 63(1): 4-8, 2024.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37643687

Open reduction with internal fixation (ORIF) of Lisfranc injuries are associated with an increased risk for secondary surgery including hardware removal and salvage arthrodesis. In the current literature, rates of salvage arthrodesis vary due to small sample sizes and a low incidence of Lisfranc injuries. There is little evidence to identify specific surgical and patient-related variables that may result in later arthrodesis. The purpose of this study is to determine the rate of tarsometatarsal joint arthrodesis following Lisfranc ORIF in a relatively large sample size. This retrospective review included patients who underwent ORIF for a Lisfranc injury between January 2007 and December 2012. A total of 146 patients met our criteria. Trans-articular fixation was used in 109 (74.6%) patients, 33 (22.6%) received percutaneous fixation and 4 (2.7%) extraarticular fixation. Five out of 120 (4.2%) patients required a salvage arthrodesis for post-traumatic arthritis that had a follow-up greater than 5 y but up to 10 y. The mean age of patients who underwent arthrodesis after ORIF was 24.5 ± 11.95 (16-48) y compared to 40.9 ± 15.8 (16-85) y. Patients who required an arthrodesis also had earlier hardware removal than patients who did not have an arthrodesis, 71.2 ± 28.3 (38-100) days and 131.4 ±101.2 (37-606) days, respectively. Patients who required salvage arthrodesis tended to be younger and hardware was removed earlier compared to those patients who did not require an arthrodesis. Four of the 5 patients who underwent a secondary arthrodesis had a loss of correction after hardware removal.


Fractures, Bone , Open Fracture Reduction , Humans , Incidence , Open Fracture Reduction/adverse effects , Arthrodesis/adverse effects , Fractures, Bone/surgery , Fracture Fixation, Internal/adverse effects , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome
3.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ; 14: 1295787, 2023.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38155955

Objective: To explore the cycle characteristics and pregnancy outcomes of progestin-primed ovarian stimulation (PPOS) using fixed versus degressive doses of medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) in conjunction with letrozole (LE) in infertile women by propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. Design: A retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary-care academic medical center. Population: A total of 3173 infertile women undergoing their first in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatment within the period from January 2017 to December 2020. Methods: A total of 1068 and 783 patients who underwent a fixed dose of MPA combined with LE and a degressive dose of MPA combined with LE protocols, respectively, were enrolled in this study. The freeze-all approach and later frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) were performed in both groups. Propensity score matching (1:1) was performed. Main outcome measures: The primary outcomes were the dosage of MPA and the incidence of premature luteinizing hormone (LH) surges. The secondary outcomes were the number of oocytes retrieved, the cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) and the fetal malformation rate. Results: We created a perfect match of 478 patients in each group. The dosage of MPA, the LH serum level on the eighth day of stimulation, progesterone (P) level and LH level on the hCG trigger day were significantly higher in the LE + fixed MPA group than in the LE + degressive MPA group (52.1 ± 13.1 mg vs. 44.9 ± 12.5 mg; 5.0 ± 2.7 IU/L vs. 3.7 ± 1.7 IU/L; 0.9 ± 0.5 ng/ml vs. 0.8 ± 0.5 ng/ml; 3.3 ± 2.4 IU/L vs. 2.8 ± 1.9 IU/L; P < 0.01). The duration of Gn, the number of follicles with diameter more than 16 mm on trigger day, the estradiol (E2) level on the hCG trigger day were lower in the LE + fixed MPA group than in the LE + degressive MPA group (9.7 ± 1.7 days vs. 10.3 ± 1.5 days; 5.6 ± 3.0 vs. 6.3 ± 3.0; 1752.5 ± 1120.8 pg/ml vs. 1997.2 ± 1108.5 pg/ml; P < 0.001). No significant difference was found in the incidence of premature LH surge, the number of oocytes retrieved, the number of top-quality embryos, clinical pregnancy rate (CPR), CLBR or fetal malformation rate between the two groups. Conclusion: The combination of a degressive MPA dose with LE proved effective in reducing the total MPA dosage with comparable premature LH surge and pregnancy outcomes in women undergoing the PPOS protocol.


Infertility, Female , Progestins , Pregnancy , Humans , Female , Male , Medroxyprogesterone Acetate , Letrozole , Infertility, Female/therapy , Retrospective Studies , Propensity Score , Semen , Ovulation Induction/methods , Luteinizing Hormone
4.
Am J Psychiatry ; 180(11): 805-814, 2023 11 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37789743

OBJECTIVE: The authors examined recent trends in incidence of psychotic disorders, demographic characteristics, and comorbid psychiatric and medical conditions among six racial/ethnic groups. METHOD: A retrospective cohort study design was used to examine the incidence of psychotic disorders across race/ethnicity groups and comorbid psychiatric and medical conditions among members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2009 to 2019 (N=5,994,758). Poisson regression was used to assess changes in annual incidence, and Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex were used to test correlates and consequences. RESULTS: Overall, the incidence of nonaffective psychotic disorders decreased slightly over the study period. Compared with White members, the risk of nonaffective psychosis diagnosis was higher among Black (hazard ratio=2.13, 95% CI=2.02-2.24) and American Indian or Alaskan Native (AIAN) (hazard ratio=1.85, 95% CI=1.53-2.23) members and lower among Asian (hazard ratio=0.72, 95% CI=0.68-0.76) and Hispanic (hazard ratio=0.91, 95% CI=0.87-0.96) members, as well as those whose race/ethnicity was categorized as "other" (hazard ratio=0.92, 95% CI=0.86-0.99). Compared with White members, the risk of affective psychosis diagnosis adjusted for age and sex was higher among Black (hazard ratio=1.76, 95% CI=1.62-1.91), Hispanic (hazard ratio=1.09, 95% CI=1.02-1.16), and AIAN (hazard ratio=1.38, 95% CI=1.00-1.90) members and lower among Asian (hazard ratio=0.77, 95% CI=0.71-0.83), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (hazard ratio=0.69, 95% CI=0.48-0.99), and "other" (hazard ratio=0.86, 95% CI=0.77-0.96) members. Psychotic disorders were associated with significantly higher odds of suicide (odds ratio=2.65, 95% CI=2.15-3.28), premature death (odds ratio=1.30, 95% CI=1.22-1.39), and stroke (odds ratio=1.64, 95% CI=1.55-1.72) and lower odds of health care utilization (odds ratio=0.44, 95% CI=0.42-0.47). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates racial and ethnic variation in incident psychotic disorder diagnoses in the United States, compared with non-Hispanic Whites. Individuals diagnosed with psychosis face a greater burden of other negative health outcomes and lower odds of health care utilization, reflecting personal and economic impacts. Identifying risk factors for elevated rates and protective influences in subgroups can inform strategies for prevention and interventions to ameliorate severe consequences of psychotic syndromes.


Ethnicity , Psychotic Disorders , Humans , Incidence , Psychotic Disorders/diagnosis , Psychotic Disorders/ethnology , Retrospective Studies , United States , Racial Groups
5.
Ann Surg Oncol ; 30(11): 6454-6461, 2023 Oct.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37386303

BACKGROUND: We compared the results of hereditary cancer multigene panel testing among patients ≤ 45 years of age diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) versus invasive breast cancer (IBC) in a large integrated health care system. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of hereditary cancer gene testing among women ≤ 45 years of age diagnosed with DCIS or IBC at Kaiser Permanente Northern California between September 2019 and August 2020 was performed. During the study period, institutional guidelines recommended the above population be referred to genetic counselors for pretesting counseling and testing. RESULTS: A total of 61 DCIS and 485 IBC patients were identified. Genetic counselors met with 95% of both groups, and 86.4% of DCIS patients and 93.9% of IBC patients (p = 0.0339) underwent gene testing. Testing differed by race/ethnicity (p = 0.0372). Among those tested, 11.76% (n = 6) of DCIS patients and 16.71% (n = 72) of IBC patients had a pathogenic variant (PV) or likely pathogenic variant (LPV) based on the 36-gene panel (p = 0.3650). Similar trends were seen in 13 breast cancer (BC)-related genes (p = 0.0553). Family history of cancer was significantly associated with both BC-related and non-BC-related PVs in IBC, but not DCIS. CONCLUSION: In our study, 95% of patients were seen by a genetic counselor when age was used as an eligibility criterion for referral. While larger studies are needed to further compare the prevalence of PVs/LPVs among DCIS and IBC patients, our data suggest that even in younger patients, the prevalence of PVs/LPVs in BC-related genes is lower in DCIS patients.


Breast Neoplasms , Carcinoma, Ductal, Breast , Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating , Humans , Female , Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology , Breast Neoplasms/genetics , Breast Neoplasms/pathology , Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating/epidemiology , Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating/genetics , Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating/pathology , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Retrospective Studies , Carcinoma, Ductal, Breast/epidemiology , Carcinoma, Ductal, Breast/genetics , Carcinoma, Ductal, Breast/pathology , Genetic Testing
6.
Gastroenterology ; 165(2): 391-401.e2, 2023 08.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37142201

BACKGROUND & AIMS: High-quality data regarding the effect of Helicobacter pylori eradication on the risk of noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) remain limited in the United States. We investigated the incidence of NCGA after H pylori eradication therapy in a large, community-based US population. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of Kaiser Permanente Northern California members who underwent testing and/or treatment for H pylori between 1997 and 2015 and were followed through December 31, 2018. The risk of NCGA was evaluated using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model and standardized incidence ratios. RESULTS: Among 716,567 individuals with a history of H pylori testing and/or treatment, the adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of NCGA for H pylori-positive/untreated and H pylori-positive/treated individuals were 6.07 (4.20-8.76) and 2.68 (1.86-3.86), respectively, compared with H pylori-negative individuals. When compared directly with H pylori-positive/untreated individuals, subdistribution hazard ratios for NCGA in H pylori-positive/treated were 0.95 (0.47-1.92) at <8 years and 0.37 (0.14-0.97) ≥8 years of follow-up. Compared with the Kaiser Permanente Northern California general population, standardized incidence ratios (95% confidence interval) of NCGA steadily decreased after H pylori treatment: 2.00 (1.79-2.24) ≥1 year, 1.01 (0.85-1.19) ≥4 years, 0.68 (0.54-0.85) ≥7 years, and 0.51 (0.38-0.68) ≥10 years. CONCLUSION: In a large, diverse, community-based population, H pylori eradication therapy was associated with a significantly reduced incidence of NCGA after 8 years compared with no treatment. The risk among treated individuals became lower than the general population after 7 to 10 years of follow-up. The findings support the potential for substantial gastric cancer prevention in the United States through H pylori eradication.


Adenocarcinoma , Helicobacter Infections , Helicobacter pylori , Stomach Neoplasms , Humans , United States/epidemiology , Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology , Stomach Neoplasms/prevention & control , Stomach Neoplasms/drug therapy , Helicobacter Infections/diagnosis , Helicobacter Infections/drug therapy , Helicobacter Infections/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Incidence , Adenocarcinoma/epidemiology , Adenocarcinoma/prevention & control , Adenocarcinoma/drug therapy , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use
7.
J Ovarian Res ; 16(1): 4, 2023 Jan 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36611200

BACKGROUND: In an in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle, the embryo ends its wandering time and begins the process of implantation into the uterine cavity on the seventh day after oocyte pick-up (OPU + 7), which is closer than OPU + 5 to the time of nidation. Therefore, measuring the oestradiol (E2)/progesterone (P) ratio on OPU + 7 may be helpful for predicting pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,257 women undergoing a follicular-phase depot gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRH-a) protocol for in vitro fertilization /intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatment and fresh blastocyst embryo transfer cycles at a university-affiliated fertility center between January 2016 and April 2021. First, 2,257 women were split into two groups based on clinical pregnancy for analyzing the levels of E2 and P and the E2/P ratio on the day of OPU + 2, OPU + 5 and OPU + 7. And then 2,257 cycles were stratified into three groups based on E2/P ratio tertiles on OPU + 7: the low group (1.3-15.7 pg/ng), middle group (15.7-28.8 pg/ng), and high group (28.8-487.2 pg/ng). The threshold effect of the E2/P ratio on OPU + 7 on live birth was investigated using a two-piecewise linear regression model and a smoothing function curve. RESULTS: The level of P in the clinical pregnancy group were lower than that in the nonclinical pregnancy group on both OPU + 2 and OPU + 7 (201.9 ± 71.6 ng/ml vs 213.1 ± 77.6 ng/ml, 89.5 ± 88.5 ng/ml vs 99.5 ± 94.9 ng/ml, P < 0.05). The E2/P ratio in the clinical pregnancy group were higher than that in the nonclinical pregnancy group on both OPU + 2 and OPU + 7 (8.4 ± 6.5 pg/ng vs 8.0 ± 6.8 pg/ng, 32.3 ± 38.5 pg/ng vs 25.2 ± 31.0 pg/ng, P < 0.01). The E2/P ratio on OPU + 7 was positively associated with positive hCG (adjusted OR = 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02; P < 0.0001), clinical pregnancy (adjusted OR = 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.01; P = 0.0067) and live birth (adjusted OR = 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.01; P < 0.001), and a nonlinear correlation was observed between the E2/P ratio and LBR on OPU + 7. CONCLUSIONS: A higher E2/P ratio is associated with a higher LBR, but the E2/P ratio should be maintained within a suitable range.


Estradiol , Progesterone , Male , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Live Birth , Retrospective Studies , Semen , Fertilization in Vitro , Embryo Transfer/methods , Pregnancy Rate , Blastocyst , Ovulation Induction/methods
8.
Thromb Res ; 221: 130-136, 2023 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36566069

INTRODUCTION: Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) is a rare and life-threatening form of pulmonary hypertension and the only potentially curable form of the World Health Organization Pulmonary Hypertension classes. Thus, the prompt and accurate diagnosis of this condition is imperative. Despite widespread chronic symptoms following acute pulmonary embolism (PE), the condition is rarely considered, and an externally validated inexpensive diagnostic algorithm is lacking. METHODS: A long-term, retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess the incidence of CTEPH following acute PE in a real-world study population. Additional data were collected regarding the practice patterns of diagnostic testing and imaging, particularly in patients with persistent or recurrent symptoms. Amongst diagnosed CTEPH patients, previously established risk factors were evaluated for degree of risk and commonly used diagnostic tests (electrocardiogram [ECG] right ventricular hypertrophy [RVH] pattern, B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] elevations) employed during this period were evaluated and assessed for feasibility as screening tests. The study population was obtained from the MAPLE study cohort, comprised of patients presenting with acute PE in 21 community medical centers across the Kaiser Permanente Northern California system from January 2013 to April 2015. Diagnosis of CTEPH was confirmed via pulmonary vascular imaging (ventilation/perfusion [V/Q] scanning, computed tomography angiography, pulmonary angiography) and diagnostic right heart catheterization (RHC). Probable diagnoses were defined as a combination of suggestive echocardiographic and RHC findings. Additional inclusion criteria included age (≥18 years) with at least 2 years follow up and no previous diagnosis of CTEPH or PE during the prior 30 days. RESULTS: There were 1973 patients who met inclusion criteria (mean age 62.4 years). Despite 75 % of patients developing symptoms consistent with CTEPH >3 months following acute PE, only 5.6 % of these symptomatic patients underwent V/Q scanning. There was overall a very low cumulative incidence of CTEPH (2.3 %), which was significantly higher amongst patients with symptoms compared to those without symptoms. When controlled for confounding in the multivariate analysis, only recurrent PE (HR 19.3, P < 0.001) and pulmonary artery systolic pressure >50 mmHg (HR 10.4, P < 0.001) were statistically significant predictors of CTEPH. Of the non-invasive diagnostic tests, ECG criteria for RVH were found to be poorly sensitive (2.6 %), but very specific (98.8 %) for CTEPH. Elevated levels of BNP alone were more sensitive than RVH ECG criteria (76.3 %) but poorly specific (44.4 %). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of CTEPH is uncommonly made following acute PE. Despite the frequency of persistent symptoms consistent with CTEPH following acute PE, the appropriate diagnostic work-up is rarely undertaken as evidenced in this cohort. This suggests that CTEPH is underappreciated and rarely considered, likely underestimating the true incidence in this cohort. Future studies are needed to elucidate the true prevalence of CTEPH and further investigate both the optimal diagnostic tools and timing of appropriate screening. These discoveries may help guide future development of diagnostic algorithms that can effectively rule out and accurately identify this potentially curable disease in a timely manner.


Hypertension, Pulmonary , Pulmonary Embolism , Humans , Middle Aged , Adolescent , Hypertension, Pulmonary/diagnosis , Hypertension, Pulmonary/epidemiology , Hypertension, Pulmonary/etiology , Retrospective Studies , Electrocardiography , Echocardiography , California/epidemiology , Pulmonary Embolism/complications , Pulmonary Embolism/diagnosis , Pulmonary Embolism/epidemiology , Chronic Disease
9.
JAMA Netw Open ; 5(4): e226417, 2022 04 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35389497

Importance: Standard diabetic ketoacidosis care in the US includes intravenous insulin treatment in the intensive care unit. Subcutaneous (SQ) insulin could decrease intensive care unit need, but the data are limited. Objective: To assess outcomes after implementation of an SQ insulin protocol for treating diabetic ketoacidosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study is a retrospective evaluation of a prospectively implemented SQ insulin protocol. The study was conducted at an integrated health care system in Northern California. Participants included hospitalized patients with diabetic ketoacidosis at 21 hospitals between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2019. The preimplementation phase was 2010 to 2015, and the postimplementation phase was 2017 to 2019. Data analysis was performed from October 2020 to January 2022. Exposure: An SQ insulin treatment protocol for diabetic ketoacidosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Difference-in-differences evaluation of the need for intensive care, mortality, readmission, and length of stay at a single intervention site using an SQ insulin protocol from 2017 onward compared with 20 control hospitals using standard care. Results: A total of 7989 hospitalizations for diabetic ketoacidosis occurred, with 4739 (59.3%) occurring before and 3250 (40.7%) occurring after implementation. The overall mean (SD) age was 42.3 (17.7) years, with 4137 hospitalizations (51.8%) occurring among female patients. Before implementation, SQ insulin was the first insulin used in 40 intervention (13.4%) and 651 control (14.7%) hospitalizations. After implementation, 98 hospitalizations (80.3%) received SQ insulin first at the intervention site compared with 402 hospitalizations (12.8%) at control sites. The adjusted rate ratio for intensive care unit admission was 0.43 (95% CI, 0.33-0.56) at the intervention sites, a 57% reduction compared with control sites, and was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.25-0.99) for 30-day hospital readmission, a 50% reduction. There were no significant changes in hospital length of stay and rates of death. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that a protocol based on SQ insulin for diabetic ketoacidosis treatment was associated with significant decreases in intensive care unit need and readmission, with no evidence of increases in adverse events.


Diabetes Mellitus , Diabetic Ketoacidosis , Adult , Cohort Studies , Diabetic Ketoacidosis/drug therapy , Diabetic Ketoacidosis/epidemiology , Female , Hospitals , Humans , Insulin/therapeutic use , Insulin, Regular, Human , Length of Stay , Retrospective Studies
10.
Clin Transl Gastroenterol ; 13(5): e00477, 2022 05 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35347095

INTRODUCTION: Despite studies showing improved safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness of endoscopic resection for nonmalignant colorectal polyps, colectomy rates for nonmalignant colorectal polyps have been increasing in the United States and Europe. Given this alarming trend, we aimed to investigate whether colectomy rates for nonmalignant colorectal polyps are increasing or declining in a large, integrated, community-based healthcare system with access to advanced endoscopic resection procedures. METHODS: We identified all individuals aged 50-85 years who underwent a colonoscopy between 2008 and 2018 and were diagnosed with a nonmalignant colorectal polyp(s) at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare system. Among these individuals, we identified those who underwent a colectomy for nonmalignant colorectal polyps within 12 months after the colonoscopy. We calculated annual colectomy rates for nonmalignant colorectal polyps and stratified rates by age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Changes in rates over time were tested by the Cochran-Armitage test for a linear trend. RESULTS: Among 229,730 patients who were diagnosed with nonmalignant colorectal polyps between 2008 and 2018, 1,611 patients underwent a colectomy. Colectomy rates for nonmalignant colorectal polyps decreased significantly from 125 per 10,000 patients with nonmalignant polyps in 2008 to 12 per 10,000 patients with nonmalignant polyps in 2018 (P < 0.001 for trend). When stratified by age, sex, and race and ethnicity, colectomy rates for nonmalignant colorectal polyps also significantly declined from 2008 to 2018. DISCUSSION: In a large, ethnically diverse, community-based population in the United States, we found that colectomy rates for nonmalignant colorectal polyps declined significantly over the past decade likely because of the establishment of advanced endoscopy centers, improved care coordination, and an organized colorectal cancer screening program.


Colonic Polyps , Colorectal Neoplasms , Colectomy/adverse effects , Colectomy/methods , Colonic Polyps/diagnosis , Colonic Polyps/epidemiology , Colonic Polyps/surgery , Colonoscopy , Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis , Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/surgery , Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal , Humans , United States/epidemiology
11.
J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg ; 163(3): 769-777, 2022 03.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33934900

OBJECTIVE: Existing evidence demonstrates some benefit of regionalization on early postoperative outcomes following lung cancer resection, but data regarding the persistence of this effect in long-term mortality are lacking. We investigated whether previously reported improvements in short-term outcomes translated to long-term survival benefit. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients undergoing major pulmonary resection (lobectomy, bilobectomy, or pneumonectomy) for cancer within our integrated health care system before (2011-2013; n = 782) and after (2015-2017; n = 845) thoracic surgery regionalization. Overall survival was compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis, and 1- and 3-year mortality was compared by the by χ2 or Fisher exact test. Multivariable Cox regression models evaluated the effect of regionalization on mortality adjusted for relevant factors. RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier curves showed that overall survival was better among patients undergoing surgery postregionalization (log-rank test, P < .0001). Both 1- and 3-year mortality were decreased after regionalization: to 5.7% from 11.1% (P < .0001) for 1 year and to 17.0% from 25.5% (P = .0002) for 3 years. The multivariable adjusted Cox regression analysis revealed that only regionalization (hazard ratio [HR], 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.76), age (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04), cancer stage (HR, 1.72, 1.83, and 2.56 for stages II, III, and IV, respectively), and Charlson comorbidity index (HR, 1.80 for 1-2; 2.05 for ≥3) were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We found that overall mortality as well as 1- and 3-year mortality for lung cancer resection were lower after thoracic surgery regionalization. The association between regionalization and reduced mortality was significant even after adjusting for other related factors in a multivariable Cox analysis. Notably, surgeon volume, facility volume, surgeon specialty, neoadjuvant treatment, and video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery approach did not significantly affect mortality in the adjusted model.


Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/surgery , Centralized Hospital Services , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , Lung Neoplasms/surgery , Pneumonectomy , Regional Health Planning , Aged , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/mortality , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/pathology , Female , Humans , Lung Neoplasms/mortality , Lung Neoplasms/pathology , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonectomy/adverse effects , Pneumonectomy/mortality , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
12.
J Clin Pharm Ther ; 47(4): 469-476, 2022 Apr.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34796515

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: To compare the characteristics and efficacy of progestin-primed ovarian stimulation (PPOS) protocol plus letrozole versus PPOS protocol alone for patients with normal ovarian function who received in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection-embryo transfer (IVF/ICSI-ET) assisted pregnancy treatment. METHODS: From 1 October 2017 to 1 October 2019, 576 patients who underwent IVF/ICSI cycles received PPOS protocol with or without letrozole in the Center of Reproductive Medicine, Renmin Hospital of Shiyan City were included in this retrospective cohort study. The PPOS group included 249 patients who received PPOS protocol alone, and the combined treatment group included 327 patients who received PPOS protocol plus letrozole. The general data and laboratory indicators were detected and used as baseline data. In addition, evaluation of related indicators was performed, including days of gonadotropin (Gn) duration, total amount of dose of Gn and medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), hormone levels on the trigger day, number of oocytes retrieved and mature eggs, fertilization rate, cleavage rate, blastocyst formation rate, high-quality embryo rate, methods of endometrial preparation, stage of embryo transfer, endometrial thickness, the number of embryo transfer, biochemical pregnancy rate, clinical pregnancy rate, implantation rate, abortion rate, ectopic pregnancy rate and live birth rate. The risk factors affecting clinical pregnancy rate were detected by binary Logistic regression analysis. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In this study, we found that baseline level of Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) was significantly higher in combined group compared with PPOS group (p < 0.05). The days of Gn duration in combined group were significantly longer than that in PPOS group (p < 0.05), and the total amount of dose of Gn and MPA in combined group was significantly less than that in PPOS group (p < 0.05). The levels of luteinizing hormone (LH) and progesterone in combined group were significantly higher than that in PPOS group on the trigger day (p < 0.05). The number of oocytes retrieved and mature eggs in combined group was significantly more than that in PPOS group (p < 0.05). Meanwhile, the fertilization rate, cleavage rate and blastocyst formation rate in combined group were significantly higher than that in PPOS group (p < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the characteristics of endometrial preparation and embryo transfer, as well as the pregnancy outcomes. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that stage (p < 0.001) (OR = 0.281, 95% CI: 0.187, 0.422) and number (p < 0.001) (OR = 0.333, 95% CI: 0.196, 0.567) of embryos transfer were risk factors for clinical pregnancy rate. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: Compared with PPOS protocol alone, letrozole combined with PPOS can achieve similar embryo and pregnancy outcomes while reducing the amount of Gn and MPA, which has a higher cost performance and is worth promoting. Stage and number of embryos transfer are risk factors for clinical pregnancy rate.


Ovarian Reserve , Progestins , Female , Humans , Letrozole , Medroxyprogesterone Acetate , Ovulation Induction/methods , Pregnancy , Retrospective Studies
13.
Ann Thorac Surg ; 110(1): 276-283, 2020 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32184113

BACKGROUND: Current literature favors a volume-outcome relationship in pulmonary lobectomy that prompted centralization of these operations abroad, in national, single-payer health care settings. This study examined the impact of regionalization on outcomes after lung cancer resection within a US integrated health care system. METHODS: This study retrospectively reviewed major pulmonary resections (lobectomy, bilobectomy, pneumonectomy) for lung cancer that were performed before (2011 to 2013; n = 782) and after (2015 to 2017; n = 845) thoracic surgery regionalization during 2014. RESULTS: Case migration from 16 regionwide sites to 5 designated centers was complete by 2016. Facility volume increased from 17.4 to 48.3 cases/y (P = .002), and surgeon volume increased from 12.5 to 19.9 cases/y (P = .001). The postregionalization era was characterized by increased video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (86% from 57%; P < .001), as well as decreased intensive care unit use (-1.0 days; P < .001) and hospital length of stay (-3.0 days; P < .001). Postregionalization patients experienced fewer total (26.2% from 38.6%; P < .001) and major (9.6% from 13.6%; P = .01) complications. The association between regionalization and decreased length of stay and morbidity was independent of surgical approach and case volume in mixed multivariate models. CONCLUSIONS: After the successful implementation of thoracic surgery regionalization in our US health care network, pulmonary resection volume increased, and practice shifted to majority video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery and minimum intensive care unit utilization. Regionalization was independently associated with significant reductions in length of stay and morbidity.


Delivery of Health Care, Integrated/organization & administration , Lung Neoplasms/surgery , Pneumonectomy , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Regional Medical Programs/organization & administration , Thoracic Surgery, Video-Assisted , Aged , Female , Humans , Length of Stay , Lung Neoplasms/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , Operative Time , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome
14.
Am J Med ; 133(8): 969-975.e2, 2020 08.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32007455

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture is common in the elderly, many of whom are on anticoagulation. However, data are limited on outcomes with anticoagulation reversal in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. METHODS: Adults ≥60 years old on oral anticoagulation who underwent hip fracture surgery at 21 hospitals in Northern California from 2006 to 2016 were identified through electronic databases. Outcomes were compared among patients treated and untreated with anticoagulation reversal preoperatively. RESULTS: Of 1984 patients on oral anticoagulation who underwent hip fracture surgery, 1943 (97.9%) were on warfarin and 41 (2.1%) were on direct oral anticoagulants. Reversal agents were administered to 1635 (82.4%). Compared to a watch-and-wait strategy, patients receiving reversal agents were more likely to be white, male, comorbid, and with higher admission and preoperative international normalized ratios (P <0.001 for all comparisons). No difference for 30-day mortality was detected between reversal vs non-reversal (7.8% vs 6.0%, respectively; hazard ratio [HR], 1.30 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82-2.07]). For secondary outcomes, reversal was associated with higher risk of delirium (8.6% vs 4.9%, risk ratio [RR], 1.77 [95% CI, 1.08-2.89]) and increased mean length of stay (6.4 vs 5.8 days, P <0.05). After adjustment, associations were no longer significant for delirium (RR 1.60, 95% CI, 0.97-2.65) or length of stay (mean difference 0.08, 95% CI, -0.55-0.71). No associations were detected between reversal and other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSION: No significant associations were found between reversal agents and 30-day mortality or other outcomes in patients on oral anticoagulation who underwent hip fracture surgery. Further investigation is needed.


Anticoagulants/adverse effects , Antifibrinolytic Agents/therapeutic use , Blood Coagulation Factors/therapeutic use , Blood Loss, Surgical/prevention & control , Hip Fractures/surgery , Postoperative Hemorrhage/prevention & control , Preoperative Care/methods , Black or African American , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Arthroplasty, Replacement, Hip , Asian , Blood Transfusion , Cohort Studies , Delirium/epidemiology , Factor Xa Inhibitors/adverse effects , Female , Fracture Fixation, Internal , Hispanic or Latino , Humans , International Normalized Ratio , Length of Stay , Male , Mortality , Orthopedic Procedures , Plasma , Postoperative Complications , Postoperative Hemorrhage/chemically induced , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , Sex Factors , Vitamin K/therapeutic use , Warfarin/adverse effects , White People
15.
JAMA Netw Open ; 2(11): e1914344, 2019 11 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31675080

Importance: An increasing prevalence of adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis and treatment has been reported in clinical settings and administrative data in the United States. However, there are limited data on recent trends of adult ADHD diagnosis among racial/ethnic subgroups. Objective: To examine trends, including associated demographic characteristics, psychiatric diagnoses, and negative outcomes, in the prevalence and incidence of adult ADHD diagnosis among 7 racial/ethnic groups during a 10-year period. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study investigated trends in the diagnosis of ADHD in adults who identified as African American or black, Native American, Pacific Islander, Latino or Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, Asian American, or other using the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health plan medical records. A total of 5 282 877 adult patients and 867 453 children aged 5 to 11 years who received care at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016, were included. Data analysis was performed from January 2017 through September 2019. Exposures: Period of ADHD diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence and incidence of licensed mental health clinician-diagnosed ADHD in adults and prevalence of licensed mental health clinician-diagnosed ADHD in children aged 5 to 11 years. Results: Of 5 282 877 adult patients (1 155 790 [21.9%] aged 25-34 years; 2 667 562 [50.5%] women; 2 204 493 [41.7%] white individuals), 59 371 (1.12%) received diagnoses of ADHD. Prevalence increased from 0.43% in 2007 to 0.96% in 2016. Among 867 453 children aged 5 to 11 years (424 449 [48.9%] girls; 260 236 [30.0%] white individuals), prevalence increased from 2.96% in 2007 to 3.74% in 2016. During the study period, annual adult ADHD prevalence increased for every race/ethnicity, but white individuals consistently had the highest prevalence rates (white individuals: 0.67%-1.42%; black individuals: 0.22%-0.69%; Native American individuals: 0.56%-1.14%; Pacific Islander individuals: 0.11%-0.39%; Hispanic or Latino individuals: 0.25%-0.65%; Asian American individuals: 0.11%-0.35%; individuals from other races/ethnicities: 0.29%-0.71%). Incidence of ADHD diagnosis per 10 000 person-years increased from 9.43 in 2007 to 13.49 in 2016. Younger age (eg, >65 years vs 18-24 years: odds ratio [OR], 0.094; 95% CI, 0.088-0.101; P < .001), male sex (women: OR, 0.943; 95% CI, 0.928-0.959; P < .001), white race (eg, Asian patients vs white patients: OR, 0.248; 95% CI, 0.240-0.257; P < .001), being divorced (OR, 1.131; 95% CI, 1.093-1.171; P < .001), being employed (eg, retired vs employed persons: OR, 0.278; 95% CI, 0.267-0.290; P < .001), and having a higher median education level (OR, 2.156; 95% CI, 2.062-2.256; P < .001) were positively associated with odds of ADHD diagnosis. Having an eating disorder (OR, 5.192; 95% CI, 4.926-5.473; P < .001), depressive disorder (OR, 4.118; 95% CI, 4.030-4.207; P < .001), bipolar disorder (OR, 4.722; 95% CI, 4.556-4.894; P < .001), or anxiety disorder (OR, 2.438; 95% CI, 2.385-2.491; P < .001) was associated with higher odds of receiving an ADHD diagnosis. Adults with ADHD had significantly higher odds of frequent health care utilization (OR, 1.303; 95% CI, 1.272-1.334; P < .001) and sexually transmitted infections (OR, 1.289; 95% CI 1.251-1.329; P < .001) compared with adults with no ADHD diagnosis. Conclusions and Relevance: This study confirmed the reported increases in rates of ADHD diagnosis among adults, showing substantially lower rates of detection among minority racial/ethnic subgroups in the United States. Higher odds of negative outcomes reflect the economic and personal consequences that substantiate the need to improve assessment and treatment of ADHD in adults.


Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/epidemiology , Racial Groups/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Age Factors , Aged , Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/diagnosis , California/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Cohort Studies , Divorce/statistics & numerical data , Educational Status , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Employment/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Race Factors , Sex Distribution , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology , Young Adult
16.
Med Sci Sports Exerc ; 51(12): 2498-2505, 2019 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31274682

PURPOSE: To estimate risks of incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) and stage 2 and greater hypertension associated with self-reported and accelerometer-determined moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) separately and adjusted for each other. METHODS: The sample included 2291 black and white men and women, ages 38-50 yr, in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) fitness study, conducted during the year 20 core CARDIA examination. Accelerometer-determined (Actigraph, LLC. model 7164) MVPA (MVPA-Acc), assessed at year 20, was defined as minutes per day of counts ≥2020 min. Self-reported MVPA (MVPA-SR) was assessed at year 20 using the CARDIA Physical Activity History. Incident T2D was ascertained at years 25 and 30 from fasting glucose, 2 h glucose tolerance test, HbA1c, or diabetes medication; incident hypertension was ascertained at those same times from measured blood pressure or use of antihypertensive medications. Modified Poisson regression models estimated relative risk (RR) of incident (years 25 and 30) T2D or hypertension, associated with middle and high tertiles of year 20 MVPA-Acc alone, year 20 MVPA-SR alone, and both, adjusted for each other, relative to bottom tertile. RESULTS: In men, MVPA-Acc, but not MVPA-SR, was associated with a 37% to 67% decreased risk of incident T2D in a dose-response relation that persisted with adjustment for BMI, Similar associations were observed in women, although the risk reduction was similar in the second and third tertiles, relative to the bottom tertile. In both men and women, MVPA-Acc was marginally associated with reduced risk of incident stage 2 and greater hypertension, but only after adjustment for BMI, whereas MVPA-SR was not associated in either sex. CONCLUSIONS: Accelerometer-determined MVPA may provide more consistent risk estimates for incident diabetes than self-reported MVPA.


Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/prevention & control , Exercise , Hypertension/epidemiology , Hypertension/prevention & control , Risk Reduction Behavior , Accelerometry , Adult , Body Mass Index , Female , Humans , Incidence , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , Self Report
17.
Ann Intern Med ; 171(1): 19-26, 2019 07 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31181578

Background: Guidelines recommend screening all patients with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer (CRC) for Lynch syndrome (LS). However, the efficiency of universal LS screening in elderly populations has not been well studied. Objective: To compare the performance of age-restricted and universal LS screening using reflex mismatch repair (MMR) immunohistochemistry (IHC) of CRC tumors. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: A large, diverse, community-based health care system. Participants: 3891 persons with newly diagnosed CRC who had LS screening between 2011 and 2016. Measurements: Diagnostic yield of different LS screening strategies. Results: Sixty-three LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.62%) were identified by universal screening, with only 5 (7.9%) detected after age 70 years and 1 (1.6%) detected after age 80 years. When all patients with CRC who had universal screening were used as the denominator, 58 LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.49% [95% CI, 1.13% to 1.92%]) were identified in patients with CRC diagnosed at or before age 70 years, 60 LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.54% [CI, 1.18% to 1.98%]) were identified in those with CRC diagnosed at or before age 75 years, and 62 LS cases (diagnostic yield, 1.59% [CI, 1.22% to 2.04%]) were identified in those with CRC diagnosed at or before age 80 years. Using 75 years as the upper age limit for screening missed 3 of 63 (4.8%) LS cases but resulted in 1053 (27.1%) fewer cases requiring tumor MMR IHC. Using 80 years as the upper age limit missed 1 of 63 (1.6%) LS cases and resulted in 668 (17.2%) fewer cases requiring tumor MMR IHC. Limitation: Persons who were eligible for but did not complete germline analysis were excluded from calculations of performance characteristics. Conclusion: The incremental diagnostic yield decreased substantially after age 70 to 75 years. Stopping reflex CRC screening for LS after age 80 years may be reasonable because of very low efficiency, particularly in resource-limited settings, but this merits further investigation. Studies evaluating the effect of diagnosing LS in elderly persons on their family members are needed. Primary Funding Source: Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research.


Colorectal Neoplasms, Hereditary Nonpolyposis/diagnosis , Colorectal Neoplasms, Hereditary Nonpolyposis/genetics , DNA Mismatch Repair , Early Detection of Cancer/methods , Immunohistochemistry/methods , Mass Screening/methods , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies
18.
JCI Insight ; 4(5)2019 03 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30843880

BACKGROUND: The relation between the menopause transition (MT) and changes in body composition or weight remains uncertain. We hypothesized that, independent of chronological aging, the MT would have a detrimental influence on body composition. METHODS: Participants were from the longitudinal Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) cohort. We assessed body composition by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Multivariable mixed effects regressions fitted piece-wise linear models to repeated measures of outcomes as a function of time before or after the final menstrual period (FMP). Covariates were age at FMP, race, study site, and hormone therapy. RESULTS: Fat and lean mass increased prior to the MT. At the start of the MT, rate of fat gain doubled, and lean mass declined; gains and losses continued until 2 years after the FMP. After that, the trajectories of fat and lean mass decelerated to zero slope. Weight climbed linearly during premenopause without acceleration at the MT. Its trajectory became flat after the MT. CONCLUSION: Accelerated gains in fat mass and losses of lean mass are MT-related phenomena. The rate of increase in the sum of fat mass and lean mass does not differ between premenopause and the MT; thus, there is no discernable change in rate of weight gain at the start of the MT. FUNDING: NIH, Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), through the National Institute on Aging, National Institute of Nursing Research, and NIH Office of Research on Women's Health (U01NR004061, U01AG012505, U01AG012535, U01AG012531, U01AG012539, U01AG012546, U01AG012553, U01AG012554, and U01AG012495).


Body Composition , Body Weight , Menopause , Adult , Aging , Body Mass Index , Female , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Menopause/metabolism , Middle Aged , Obesity/epidemiology , Premenopause , United States , Weight Gain
19.
Gastrointest Endosc ; 87(3): 755-765.e1, 2018 Mar.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28843582

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sessile serrated adenomas (SSAs) are precursors of 15% to 30% of colorectal cancers but are frequently underdiagnosed. We sought to measure the SSA detection rate (SDR) and predictors of SSA detection after educational training for community gastroenterologists and pathologists. METHODS: Colonoscopy and pathology data (2010-2014) from 3 medical centers at Kaiser Permanente Northern California were accessed electronically. Gastroenterologists and pathologists attended a training session on SSA diagnosis in 2012. Mean SDRs and patient-level predictors of SSA detection post-training (2013-2014) were investigated. RESULTS: Mean SDRs increased from .6% in 2010-2012 to 3.7% in 2013-2014. The increase in the detection of proximal SSAs was accompanied by a decrease in the detection of proximal hyperplastic polyps (HPs). Among 34,161 colonoscopies performed in 2013 to 2014, SDRs for screening, fecal immunochemical test positivity, surveillance, and diagnostic indication were 4.2%, 4.5%, 4.9%, and 3.0%, respectively. SSA detection was lower among Asians (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], .46; 95% confidence interval [CI], .31-.69) and Hispanics (aOR, .59; 95% CI, .36-.95) compared with non-Hispanic whites and higher among patients with synchronous conventional adenoma (aOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.15-1.86), HP (aOR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.30-2.34), and current smokers (aOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.17-2.72). SDRs varied widely among experienced gastroenterologists, even after training (1.1%-8.1%). There was a moderately strong correlation between adenoma detection rate (ADR) and SDR for any SSA (r = .64, P = .0003) and for right-sided SSAs (r = .71, P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Educational training significantly increased the detection of SSA, but a wide variation in SDR remained across gastroenterologists. SSA detection was inversely associated with Asian and Hispanic race/ethnicity and positively associated with the presence of conventional adenoma, HP, and current smoking. There was a moderately strong correlation between ADR and SDR.


Adenoma/diagnosis , Colonic Neoplasms/diagnosis , Education, Medical, Continuing/methods , Gastroenterologists/education , Pathologists/education , Adenoma/epidemiology , Adenoma/pathology , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , California , Cohort Studies , Colonic Neoplasms/epidemiology , Colonic Neoplasms/pathology , Colonoscopy/methods , Community Health Centers , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies
20.
Int J Cardiol ; 231: 271-276, 2017 Mar 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28189190

BACKGROUND: The prognostic utility of 5 established variables (functional capacity, Duke treadmill score, chronotropic response to exercise, heart rate recovery, and premature ventricular contractions) together after routine exercise treadmill testing (ETT) has not been determined. METHODS: We assessed the combined prognostic ability of 5 established variables for the primary outcome (myocardial infarction [MI], coronary revascularization [CR] or all-cause mortality) and the secondary outcome of unnecessary downstream testing (defined as receipt of further noninvasive imaging without CR, MI, or death) compared with standard methods. Using a retrospective study design, 1857 consecutive patients were enrolled in the year 2014 and followed until December 31, 2015. Optimal discrimination and global fit statistics were assessed from logistic regression models. Classification and regression tree (CART) methodology was used for the final model. RESULTS: The mean [SD] age was 56.0 [12.5]years; median comorbidities (2, IQR 2) with 26% having an equivocal report. Compared to other models, a model with age, sex, and the 5 established variables showed an improvement in discrimination for the primary [c-statistic 0.85 versus (0.69-0.79)] and secondary [c-statistic 0.73 versus (0.65-0.71)] outcomes with substantial improvement in global fit. The final, optimal, 10-fold cross-validated CART model had a c-statistic of 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: The utility of the 5-established variables, based on the current study, resides in its ability to decrease unnecessary downstream testing and improve cardiovascular event prognostication. This is accomplished by removing the subjective interpretation of currently used ETT variables that can lead to an equivocal report.


Exercise Test/methods , Exercise/physiology , Health Records, Personal , Heart Rate/physiology , Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis , Recovery of Function/physiology , California/epidemiology , Cause of Death , Electrocardiography , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Infarction/mortality , Myocardial Infarction/physiopathology , Pilot Projects , Predictive Value of Tests , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Survival Rate/trends
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