Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are often used to project species distributions within alien ranges and in future climatic scenarios. However, ENMs depend on species-environment equilibrium, which may be absent for actively expanding species. We present a novel framework to estimate whether species have reached environmental equilibrium in their native and alien ranges. The method is based on the estimation of niche breadth with the accumulation of species occurrences. An asymptote will indicate exhaustive knowledge of the realised niches. We demonstrate the CNA framework for 26 species of mammals, amphibians, and birds. Possible outcomes of the framework include: (1) There is enough data to quantify the native and alien realised niches, allowing us to calculate niche expansion between the native and alien ranges, also indicating that ENMs can be reliably projected to new environmental conditions. (2) The data in the native range is not adequate but an asymptote is reached in the alien realised niche, indicating low confidence in our ability to evaluate niche expansion in the alien range but high confidence in model projections to new environmental conditions within the alien range. (3) There is enough data to quantify the native realised niche, but not enough knowledge about the alien realised niche, hindering the reliability of projections beyond sampled conditions. (4) Both the native and alien ranges do not reach an asymptote, and thus few robust conclusions about the species' niche or future projections can be made. Our framework can be used to detect species' environmental equilibrium in both the native and alien ranges, to quantify changes in the realised niche during the invasion processes, and to estimate the likely accuracy of model projections to new environmental conditions.
Arterial (ATE) and venous (VTE) thromboembolic complications are common causes of morbidity and mortality in BCR-ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). However, there are few studies that include all MPN subtypes and focus on both MPN-associated ATE and VTE. In our single-center retrospective study of 832 MPN patients, a total of 180 first thromboembolic events occurred during a median follow-up of 6.6 years (range: 0-37.6 years), of which 105 were VTE and 75 were ATE. The probability of a vascular event at the end of the follow-up period was 36.2%, and the incidence rate for all first ATE/VTE was 2.43% patient/year. The most frequent VTE localizations were deep vein thrombosis with or without pulmonary embolism (incidence rate: 0.59% patient/year), while strokes were the most frequent ATE with an incidence rate of 0.32% patient/year. When comparing the group of patients with ATE/VTE (n = 180) and the group without such an event (n = 652) using multivariate Cox regression analyses, patients with polycythemia vera (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.660; [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.206, 2.286]) had a significantly higher risk of a thromboembolic event than the other MPN subtypes. In contrast, patients with a CALR mutation had a significantly lower risk of thromboembolism compared with JAK2-mutated MPN patients (HR: 0.346; [95% CI: 0.172, 0.699]). In summary, a high incidence of MPN-associated VTE and ATE was observed in our retrospective study. While PV patients or generally JAK2-mutated MPN patients had a significantly increased risk of such vascular events, this risk was reduced in CALR-mutated MPN patients.
Bird ring-recovery data have been widely used to estimate demographic parameters such as survival probabilities since the mid-20th century. However, while the total number of birds ringed each year is usually known, historical information on age at ringing is often not available. A standard ring-recovery model, for which information on age at ringing is required, cannot be used when historical data are incomplete. We develop a new model to estimate age-dependent survival probabilities from such historical data when age at ringing is not recorded; we call this the historical data model. This new model provides an extension to the model of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651-795 by estimating the proportion of the ringed birds marked as juveniles as an additional parameter. We conduct a simulation study to examine the performance of the historical data model and compare it with other models including the standard and conditional ring-recovery models. Simulation studies show that the approach of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651-795 can cause bias in parameter estimates. In contrast, the historical data model yields similar parameter estimates to the standard model. Parameter redundancy results show that the newly developed historical data model is comparable to the standard ring-recovery model, in terms of which parameters can be estimated, and has fewer identifiability issues than the conditional model. We illustrate the new proposed model using Blackbird and Sandwich Tern data. The new historical data model allows us to make full use of historical data and estimate the same parameters as the standard model with incomplete data, and in doing so, detect potential changes in demographic parameters further back in time.
