RESUMEN
Based upon 30-years of research by the author, a new approach to hospital bed planning and international benchmarking is proposed. The number of hospital beds per 1000 people is commonly used to compare international bed numbers. This method is flawed because it does not consider population age structure or the effect of nearness-to-death on hospital utilization. Deaths are also serving as a proxy for wider bed demand arising from undetected outbreaks of 3000 species of human pathogens. To remedy this problem, a new approach to bed modeling has been developed that plots beds per 1000 deaths against deaths per 1000 population. Lines of equivalence can be drawn on the plot to delineate countries with a higher or lower bed supply. This method is extended to attempt to define the optimum region for bed supply in an effective health care system. England is used as an example of a health system descending into operational chaos due to too few beds and manpower. The former Soviet bloc countries represent a health system overly dependent on hospital beds. Several countries also show evidence of overutilization of hospital beds. The new method is used to define a potential range for bed supply and manpower where the most effective health systems currently reside. The method is applied to total curative beds, medical beds, psychiatric beds, critical care, geriatric care, etc., and can also be used to compare different types of healthcare staff, i.e., nurses, physicians, and surgeons. Issues surrounding the optimum hospital size and the optimum average occupancy will also be discussed. The role of poor policy in the English NHS is used to show how the NHS has been led into a bed crisis. The method is also extended beyond international benchmarking to illustrate how it can be applied at a local or regional level in the process of long-term bed planning. Issues regarding the volatility in hospital admissions are also addressed to explain the need for surge capacity and why an adequate average bed occupancy margin is required for an optimally functioning hospital.
Asunto(s)
Ocupación de Camas , Medicina Estatal , Humanos , Anciano , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales , Hospitales , Atención a la SaludRESUMEN
Since 2020, COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in establishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death, we first investigate the effects of age and sex on all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we use a 9-year time series and several different methods to adjust single-year-of-age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single-year-of-age baseline. This adjusted base year is then used to confirm the widely reported higher deaths in males for most ages above 43 in both 2020 and 2021. During 2020 (+COVID-19 but no vaccination), both male and female population-adjusted deaths significantly increased above age 35. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality among both males and females aged 75+ could be demonstrated in 2021 during the widespread COVID-19 vaccination period; however, deaths below age 75 progressively increased. This finding arises from a mix of vaccination coverage and year-of-age profiles of deaths for the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, specific effects of age around puberty were demonstrated, where females had higher deaths than males. There is evidence that year-of-birth cohorts may also be involved, indicating that immune priming to specific pathogen outbreaks in the past may have led to lower deaths for some birth cohorts. To specifically identify the age profile for the COVID-19 variants from 2020 to 2023, we employ the proportion of total deaths at each age that are potentially due to or 'with' COVID-19. The original Wuhan strain and the Alpha variant show somewhat limited divergence in the age profile, with the Alpha variant shifting to a moderately higher proportion of deaths below age 84. The Delta variant specifically targeted individuals below age 65. The Omicron variants showed a significantly lower proportion of overall mortality, with a markedly higher relative proportion of deaths above age 65, steeply increasing with age to a maximum around 100 years of age. A similar age profile for the variants can be seen in the age-banded deaths in US states, although they are slightly obscured by using age bands rather than single years of age. However, the US data shows that higher male deaths are greatly dependent on age and the COVID variant. Deaths assessed to be 'due to' COVID-19 (as opposed to 'involving' COVID-19) in England and Wales were especially overestimated in 2021 relative to the change in all-cause mortality. This arose as a by-product of an increase in COVID-19 testing capacity in late 2020. Potential structure-function mechanisms for the age-specificity of SARS-CoV-2 variants are discussed, along with potential roles for small noncoding RNAs (miRNAs). Using data from England, it is possible to show that the unvaccinated do indeed have a unique age profile for death from each variant and that vaccination alters the shape of the age profile in a manner dependent on age, sex, and the variant. The question is posed as to whether vaccines based on different variants carry a specific age profile.
RESUMEN
Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection. All the above are further complicated by malnutrition in children and the elderly. Influenza vaccination offers a measure of protection for elderly individuals subsequently infected with influenza. However, all vaccines induce both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects involve stimulation of humoral and cellular immunity, while the nonspecific effects are far more nuanced including changes in gene expression patterns and production of small RNAs which contribute to pathogen interference. Little is known about the outcomes of vaccinated elderly not subsequently infected with influenza but infected with multiple other non-influenza winter pathogens. In this review we propose that in certain years the specific antigen mix in the seasonal influenza vaccine inadvertently increases the risk of infection from other non-influenza pathogens. The possibility that vaccination could upset the pathogen balance, and that the timing of vaccination relative to the pathogen balance was critical to success, was proposed in 2010 but was seemingly ignored. Persons vaccinated early in the winter are more likely to experience higher pathogen interference. Implications to the estimation of vaccine effectiveness and influenza deaths are discussed.
RESUMEN
Comparing international or regional hospital bed numbers is not an easy matter, and a pragmatic method has been proposed that plots the number of beds per 1000 deaths versus the log of deaths per 1000 population. This method relies on the fact that 55% of a person's lifetime hospital bed utilization occurs in the last year of life-irrespective of the age at death. This is called the nearness to death effect. The slope and intercept of the logarithmic relationship between the two are highly correlated. This study demonstrates how lines of equivalent bed provision can be constructed based on the value of the intercept. Sweden looks to be the most bed-efficient country due to long-term investment in integrated care. The potential limitations of the method are illustrated using data from English Clinical Commissioning Groups. The main limitation is that maternity, paediatric, and mental health care do not conform to the nearness to death effect, and hence, the method mainly applies to adult acute care, especially medical and critical care bed numbers. It is also suggested that sensible comparison can only be made by comparing levels of occupied beds rather than available beds. Occupied beds measure the expressed bed demand (although often constrained by access to care issues), while available beds measure supply. The issue of bed supply is made complex by the role of hospital size on the average occupancy margin. Smaller hospitals are forced to operate at a lower average occupancy; hence, countries with many smaller hospitals such as Germany and the USA appear to have very high numbers of available beds. The so-called 85% occupancy rule is an "urban myth" and has no fundamental basis whatsoever. The very high number of "hospital" beds in Japan is simply an artefact arising from "nursing home" beds being counted as a "hospital" bed in this country. Finally, the new method is applied to the expressed demand for occupied acute beds in Australian states. Using data specific to acute care, i.e., excluding mental health and maternity, a long-standing deficit of beds was identified in Tasmania, while an unusually high level of occupied beds in the Northern Territory (NT) was revealed. The high level of demand for beds in the NT appears due to an exceptionally large population of indigenous people in this state, who are recognized to have elevated health care needs relative to non-indigenous Australians. In this respect, indigenous Australians use 3.5 times more occupied bed days per 1000 deaths (1509 versus 429 beds per 1000 deaths) and 6 times more occupied bed days per 1000 population (90 versus 15 beds per 1000 population) than their non-indigenous counterparts. The figure of 1509 beds per 1000 deaths (or 4.13 occupied beds per 1000 deaths) for indigenous Australians is indicative of a high level of "acute" nursing care in the last months of life, probably because nursing home care is not readily available due to remoteness. A lack of acute beds in the NT then results in an extremely high average bed occupancy rate with contingent efficiency and delayed access implications.
Asunto(s)
Ocupación de Camas , Pueblos Indígenas , Adulto , Australia , Niño , Cuidados Críticos , Femenino , Hospitales , Humanos , EmbarazoRESUMEN
Unexpected outcomes are usually associated with interventions in complex systems. Excess winter mortality (EWM) is a measure of the net effect of all competing forces operating each winter, including influenza(s) and non-influenza pathogens. In this study over 2400 data points from 97 countries are used to look at the net effect of influenza vaccination rates in the elderly aged 65+ against excess winter mortality (EWM) each year from the winter of 1980/81 through to 2019/20. The observed international net effect of influenza vaccination ranges from a 7.8% reduction in EWM estimated at 100% elderly vaccination for the winter of 1989/90 down to a 9.3% increase in EWM for the winter of 2018/19. The average was only a 0.3% reduction in EWM for a 100% vaccinated elderly population. Such outcomes do not contradict the known protective effect of influenza vaccination against influenza mortality per se-they merely indicate that multiple complex interactions lie behind the observed net effect against all-causes (including all pathogen causes) of winter mortality. This range from net benefit to net disbenefit is proposed to arise from system complexity which includes environmental conditions (weather, solar cycles), the antigenic distance between constantly emerging circulating influenza clades and the influenza vaccine makeup, vaccination timing, pathogen interference, and human immune diversity (including individual history of host-virus, host-antigen interactions and immunosenescence) all interacting to give the observed outcomes each year. We propose that a narrow focus on influenza vaccine effectiveness misses the far wider complexity of winter mortality. Influenza vaccines may need to be formulated in different ways, and perhaps administered over a shorter timeframe to avoid the unanticipated adverse net outcomes seen in around 40% of years.
RESUMEN
Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA, and 131% in Sweden. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1960s to 1980s. This decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter and spring, and the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900s to around March since the late 1960s. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. This was confirmed for a large sample of world countries for the three pandemics occurring after 1960. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM were examined using a large international dataset. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity-all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Adjusting for the effect of increasing obesity counteracted some of the observed increase in EWM seen in the USA. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.
Asunto(s)
Influenza Pandémica, 1918-1919 , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Mortalidad , Obesidad/epidemiología , Pandemias , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The current method for assessing critical care (CCU) bed numbers between countries is unreliable. METHODS: A pragmatic method is presented using a logarithmic relationship between CCU beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population, both of which are readily available. The method relies on the importance of the nearness to death effect, and on the effect of population size. RESULTS: The method was tested using CCU bed numbers from 65 countries. A series of logarithmic relationships can be seen. High versus low countries can be distinguished by adjusting all countries to a common crude mortality rate. Hence at 9.5 deaths per 1000 population 'high' CCU bed countries average of around 30 CCU beds per 1000 deaths, while 'very low' countries only average 3 CCU beds per 1000 deaths. The United Kingdom falls among countries with low critical care provision with an average of 8 CCU beds per 1000 deaths, and during the COVID-19 epidemic UK industry intervened to rapidly manufacture various types of ventilators to avoid a catastrophe. CCU bed numbers in India are around 8.1 per 1000 deaths, which places it in the low category. However, such beds are inequitably distributed with the poorest states all in the 'very low' category. In India only around 50% of CCU beds have a ventilator. CONCLUSION: A feasible region is defined for the optimum number of CCU beds.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Cuidados Críticos , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales , Humanos , Pandemias , Ventiladores MecánicosRESUMEN
Doctors are often asked to make input into bed calculations but are often not provided with the necessary background to the potential flaws in such calculations. A simple method is presented which allows both inter- and intra-national comparison of bed numbers which are sensitive to both population age structure and the role of nearness-to-death in medical bed demand. Local adjustment will be required to account for the additional demand arising for hospitals servicing more deprived populations.
Asunto(s)
Ocupación de Camas , Hospitales , HumanosRESUMEN
To investigate the dynamic issues behind intra- and international variation in EWM (Excess Winter Mortality) using a rolling monthly EWM calculation. This is used to reveal seasonal changes in the EWM calculation and is especially relevant nearer to the equator where EWM does not reach a peak at the same time each year. In addition to latitude country specific factors determine EWM. Females generally show higher EWM. Differences between the genders are highly significant and seem to vary according to the mix of variables active each winter. The EWM for respiratory conditions in England and Wales ranges from 44% to 83%, which is about double the all-cause mortality equivalent. A similar magnitude of respiratory EWM is observed in other temperate countries. Even higher EWM can be seen for specific respiratory conditions. Age has a profound effect on EWM with a peak at puberty and then increases EWM at older ages. The gap between male and female EWM seems to act as a diagnostic tool reflecting the infectious/metrological mix in each winter. Difference due to ethnicity are also observed. An EWM equivalent calculation for sickness absence demonstrates how other health-related variables can be linked to EWM. Midway between the equator and the poles show the highest EWM since such areas tend to neglect the importance of keeping dwellings warm in the winter. Pandemic influenza does not elevate EWM, although seasonal influenza plays a part each winter. Pandemic influenza and changes in influenza strain/variant mix do, however, create structural breaks in the time series and this implies that comparing EWM between studies conducted over different times can be problematic. Cancer is an excellent example of the usefulness of rolling method since cancer EWM drifts each year, in some years increasing winter EWM and in other years diminishing it. In addition, analysis of sub-national EWM in the UK reveals high spatiotemporal granularity indicating roles for infectious outbreaks. The rolling method gives greater insight into the dynamic nature of EWM, which otherwise lies concealed in the current static method.
Asunto(s)
Etnicidad , Gripe Humana , Anciano , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Estaciones del Año , Gales/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
A new model for hospital bed numbers which adjusts for end-of-life care and age structure is used to demonstrate that England has 20% fewer occupied beds than the other countries in the United Kingdom. It also shows that occupied beds in English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) lie parallel to a line of equivalence with New Zealand and Singapore. This is despite New Zealand and Singapore having invested many years into developing integrated care, while England has not. In addition, England has around half the number of nursing home beds per death available in these two countries. Large bed reductions proposed in the sustainability and transformation plans were likely to have been manipulated to meet financial cost-saving targets rather than a result of genuine modelling of demand. The ways in which bed demand models can be manipulated to give whatever answer is required are discussed. Trends in occupied acute medical beds in England over the past 20 years show no real reduction, despite a large reduction in available beds. This has resulted in daytime occupancy for adult beds being close to 100% and with resulting queues to admission. The ways to improve the small-area application of the model including the use of deprivation or social groups are discussed.
Asunto(s)
Cuidados Paliativos al Final de la Vida , Cuidado Terminal , Adulto , Ocupación de Camas , Inglaterra , Hospitales , Humanos , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
(1) Background: To evaluate the level of hospital bed numbers in U.S. states relative to other countries using a new method for evaluating bed numbers, and to determine if this is sufficient for universal health care during a major Covid-19 epidemic in all states (2) Methods: Hospital bed numbers in each state were compared using a new international comparison methodology. Covid-19 deaths per 100 hospital beds were used as a proxy for bed capacity pressures. (3) Results: Hospital bed numbers show large variation between U.S. states and half of the states have equivalent beds to those in developing countries. Relatively low population density in over half of US states appeared to have limited the spread of Covid-19 thus averting a potential major hospital capacity crisis. (4) Conclusions: Many U.S. states had too few beds to cope with a major Covid-19 epidemic, but this was averted by low population density in many states, which seemed to limit the spread of the virus.
Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , COVID-19 , Infecciones por Coronavirus/terapia , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Humanos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/terapia , Neumonía Viral/virología , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
A simple method is presented to evaluate bed numbers between countries using a logarithmic relationship between beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population, both of which are readily available. The method relies on the importance of the nearness to death effect. This method was tested using data from Australian States. Beds per 1000 deaths varied considerably between States. This variation reduced after adjusting for the ratio of deaths per 1000 population which is a measure of population age structure. After this adjustment, most Australian States roughly approximate to the international average for developed countries while Tasmania was shown to have a chronic bed shortage, as has been recognized for many years. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, both of which have the youngest populations, have more beds relative to the other States. The nearness to death effect must be incorporated into capacity planning models in order to give robust estimates of future bed demand and to evaluate differences between countries and health care systems.
Asunto(s)
Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Australia , Humanos , Modelos EstadísticosRESUMEN
Sudden and unexplained increases in hospital medical admissions and population total deaths have been characterized in the United Kingdom. These sudden increases appear to endure for around 1 to 3 years before they abate. This study demonstrates that the sudden increases in deaths also occur in 125 countries and occur at subnational geographies. The magnitude of the sudden increase diminishes as a power law function up to around 10 000 deaths. Above 10 000 deaths, there is only a small decline with increasing size (deaths). At around 10 000 deaths, a 10% maximum sudden increase applies across many countries or subnational regions. The nearness to death effect, where around half of a person's lifetime hospital admissions occurs in the last 6 months of life, results in higher associated increases in medical admissions. This paper confirms that the use of calendar year data can be misleading. Periods of unexplained higher deaths appear to occur in bursts across multiple countries and appear to show spatial spread within the neighbourhoods which constitute the whole country.
Asunto(s)
Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Seguro de Salud/economía , Seguro/economía , Mortalidad , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Demografía , Femenino , Salud Global/economía , Salud Global/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Seguro/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Portugal/epidemiología , Pobreza/economía , Pobreza/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores Sexuales , Suecia/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Planners, actuaries, and others involved in forecasting capacity and costs must manipulate historical data. Data from calendar/financial year totals have been assumed to be adequate and reliable. This relies on the assumption that year-to-year differences do not arise from patterns concealed in the data. While the seasonal cycle is widely recognized, longer term patterns such as disease outbreaks will act to modify annual demand and costs. Monthly data relating to deaths in local government areas in England and Wales are used to demonstrate curious semipermanent bursts of high behavior. There is no seasonal pattern for the start of these events, and the sudden switch to high deaths can occur at any time, even in immediately adjacent areas. Higher deaths and related demand and costs endure for around 12 months before they suddenly revert to the former level where they stay until the next of these curious high events. In England and Wales (and many other countries), a period of unexplained higher deaths, reduced life expectancy, and health care and life insurance costs since 2011 appears to be coming to an end and looks to have arisen from a coincidence of these events at sub-national level.
Asunto(s)
Administración Financiera/métodos , Cuidado Terminal/estadística & datos numéricos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Predicción , Planificación en Salud/métodos , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidad , Estaciones del Año , Factores de Tiempo , Gales/epidemiologíaAsunto(s)
Mortalidad/tendencias , Admisión del Paciente , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Reino Unido/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Policy makers have assumed that increase in medical demands and costs are attributable to the increasing age of the population and the inability of health and social care to limit demand. METHODS: Analysis of data obtained from NHS and Office of National Statistics. RESULTS: Population-adjusted age-specific patterns in medical admissions and deaths have increased over the period 2012/13 to 2015/16 in the NHS in England. The growth is both age and year of birth specific, and the youngest appear to be worst affected. Overall there has been a growth of 30,870 admissions (15% increase) in 25-29year olds compared to 119,280 extra admissions (7% increase) for 70-74year olds. Admissions of younger medical patients have also increased more so than for pneumonia, and the increase in all-cause mortality appears to be influenced by the patients' year of birth. CONCLUSION: In England, medical admissions and deaths (all-cause mortality) have recently displayed very high unexplained growth. The fact that these are associated with patient year of birth suggests that the cause(s) may be related to infectious or other environmental factors encountered earlier in life.