Identifying structural risk factors for overdose following incarceration: a concept mapping study.

BACKGROUND: Currently, there are more than two million people in prisons or jails, with nearly two-thirds meeting the criteria for a substance use disorder. Following these patterns, overdose is the leading cause of death following release from prison and the third leading cause of death during periods of incarceration in jails. Traditional quantitative methods analyzing the factors associated with overdose following incarceration may fail to capture structural and environmental factors present in specific communities. People with lived experiences in the criminal legal system and with substance use disorder hold unique perspectives and must be involved in the research process. OBJECTIVE: To identify perceived factors that impact overdose following release from incarceration among people with direct criminal legal involvement and experience with substance use. METHODS: Within a community-engaged approach to research, we used concept mapping to center the perspectives of people with personal experience with the carceral system. The following prompt guided our study: "What do you think are some of the main things that make people who have been in jail or prison more and less likely to overdose?" Individuals participated in three rounds of focus groups, which included brainstorming, sorting and rating, and community interpretation. We used the Concept Systems Inc. platform groupwisdom for our analyses and constructed cluster maps. RESULTS: Eight individuals (ages 33 to 53) from four states participated. The brainstorming process resulted in 83 unique factors that impact overdose. The concept mapping process resulted in five clusters: (1) Community-Based Prevention, (2) Drug Use and Incarceration, (3) Resources for Treatment for Substance Use, (4) Carceral Factors, and (5) Stigma and Structural Barriers. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides critical insight into community-identified factors associated with overdose following incarceration. These factors should be accounted for during resource planning and decision-making.

Mortality, incarceration and cost implications of fentanyl felonization laws: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdose continues to be a major cause of death in the United States. One effort to control opioid use has been to implement policies that enhance criminalization of opioid possession. Laws to further criminalize possession of fentanyl have been enacted or are under consideration across the country, including at the national level. OBJECTIVE: Estimate the long-term effects on opioid death and incarceration resulting from increasingly strict fentanyl possession laws . DESIGN: We built a Markov simulation model to explore the potential outcomes of a 2022 Colorado law which made possession of >1 g of drug with any amount of fentanyl a Level 4 drug felony (and escalation of the previous law, where >4 g of any drug with any amount of fentanyl in possession was considered a felony). The model simulates a cohort of people with fentanyl possession moving through the criminal justice system, exploring the probability of overdose and incarceration under different scenarios, including various fentanyl possession policies and potential interventions. SETTING: Colorado PARTICIPANTS: A simulated cohort of people in possession of fentanyl. MEASUREMENTS: Number of opioid overdose deaths, people incarcerated, and associated costs over 5 years. RESULTS: When >4 g of a drug containing any amount of fentanyl is considered a felony in Colorado, the model predicts 5460 overdose deaths (95% CrI 410-9260) and 2,740 incarcerations for fentanyl possession (95% CrI: 230-10,500) over 5 years. When the policy changes so that >1 g possession of drug with fentanyl is considered a felony, opioid overdose deaths increase by 19% (95% CRI: 16-38%) and incarcerations for possession increase by 98% (CrI: 85-98%). Diversion programs and MOUD in prison help alleviate some of the increases in death and incarceration, but do not completely offset them. LIMITATIONS: The mathematical model is meant to offer broad assessment of the impact of these policies, not forecast specific and exact numerical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our model shows that lowering thresholds for felony possession of fentanyl containing drugs can lead to more opioid overdose deaths and incarceration.

Using Evidence to Inform Legislation Aimed at Curbing Fentanyl Deaths.

This Viewpoint presents an evidence-based argument against criminalization policies and for more treatment-focused policies.