Trends and projections of cause-specific premature mortality in Australia to 2044: a statistical modelling study.

Background: Long-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes. Methods: We examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044. Findings: Over the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases. Interpretation: Despite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions. Funding: No funding was provided for this study.

Cancer incidence and mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2044 and an exploratory analysis of the potential effect of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statistical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality estimate the future burden of cancer in a population, and can be of great use in informing the planning of health services and the management of resources. We aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates and numbers of new cases and deaths up until 2044 for all cancers combined and for 21 individual cancer types in Australia. We also illustrate the potential effect of treatment delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic on future colorectal cancer mortality rates. METHODS: In this statistical modelling study, cancer incidence and mortality rates in Australia from 2020 to 2044 were projected based on data up to 2017 and 2019, respectively. Cigarette smoking exposure (1945-2019), participation rates in the breast cancer screening programme (1996-2019), and prostate-specific antigen testing rates (1994-2020) were included where relevant. The baseline projection model using an age-period-cohort model or generalised linear model for each cancer type was selected based on model fit statistics and validation with pre-COVID-19 observed data. To assess the impact of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer mortality, we obtained data on incidence, survival, prevalence, and cancer treatment for colorectal cancer from different authorities. The relative risks of death due to system-caused treatment delays were derived from a published systematic review. Numbers of excess colorectal cancer deaths were estimated using the relative risk of death per week of treatment delay and different durations of delay under a number of hypothetical scenarios. FINDINGS: Projections indicate that in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic effects, the age-standardised incidence rate for all cancers combined for males would decline over 2020-44, and for females the incidence rate would be relatively stable in Australia. The mortality rates for all cancers combined for both males and females are expected to continuously decline during 2020-44. The total number of new cases are projected to increase by 47·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·2-61·3) for males, from 380 306 in 2015-19 to 560 744 (95% UI 514 244-613 356) in 2040-44, and by 54·4% (95% UI 40·2-70·5) for females, from 313 263 in 2015-19 to 483 527 (95% UI 439 069-534 090) in 2040-44. The number of cancer deaths are projected to increase by 36·4% (95% UI 15·3-63·9) for males, from 132 440 in 2015-19 to 180 663 (95% UI 152 719-217 126) in 2040-44, and by 36·6% (95% UI 15·8-64·1) for females, from 102 103 in 2015-19 to 139 482 (95% UI 118 186-167 527) in 2040-44, due to population ageing and growth. The example COVID-19 pandemic scenario of a 6-month health-care system disruption with 16-week treatment delays for colorectal cancer patients could result in 460 (95% UI 338-595) additional deaths and 437 (95% UI 314-570) deaths occurring earlier than expected in 2020-44. INTERPRETATION: These projections can inform health service planning for cancer care and treatment in Australia. Despite the continuous decline in cancer mortality rates, and the decline or plateau in incidence rates, our projections suggest an overall 51% increase in the number of new cancer cases and a 36% increase in the number of cancer deaths over the 25-year projection period. This means that continued efforts to increase screening uptake and to control risk factors, including smoking exposure, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and infections, must remain public health priorities. FUNDING: Partly funded by Cancer Council Australia.

Changes in prostate cancer incidence, mortality and survival in relation to prostate specific antigen testing in New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: To examine changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates, and 5-year relative survival, in relation to changes in the rate of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening tests and the use of radical prostatectomy (RP) in the Australian population. METHODS: Prostate cancer stage-specific incidence rates, 5-year relative survival and mortality rates were estimated using New South Wales Cancer Registry data. PSA screening test rates and RP/Incidence ratios were estimated from Medicare Benefits Schedule claims data. We used multiple imputation to impute stage for cases with "unknown" stage at diagnosis. Annual percentage changes (APC) in rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Trends in the age-standardized incidence rates for localized disease largely mirrored the trends in PSA screening test rates, with a substantial 'spike' in the rates occurring in 1994, followed by a second 'spike' in 2008, and then a significant decrease from 2008 to 2015 (APC -6.7, 95% CI -8.2, -5.1). Increasing trends in incidence rates were observed for regional stage from the early 2000s, while decreasing or stable trends were observed for distant stage since 1993. The overall RP/Incidence ratio increased from 1998 to 2003 (APC 9.6, 95% CI 3.8, 15.6), then remained relatively stable to 2015. The overall 5-year relative survival for prostate cancer increased from 58.4% (95% CI: 55.0-61.7%) in 1981-1985 to 91.3% (95% CI: 90.5-92.1%) in 2011-2015. Prostate cancer mortality rates decreased from 1990 onwards (1990-2006: APC -1.7, 95% CI -2.1, -1.2; 2006-2017: APC -3.8, 95% CI -4.4, -3.1). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there was a decrease in the incidence rate of localized prostate cancer after 2008, an increase in survival over time and a decrease in the mortality rate since the 1990s. This seems to indicate that the more conservative use of PSA screening tests in clinical practice since 2008 has not had a negative impact on population-wide prostate cancer outcomes.

Crude probability of death for cancer patients by spread of disease in New South Wales, Australia 1985 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Population-based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985-2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age-specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma. RESULTS: Estimated 10-year sex, age and spread-specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty-year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non-cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher. CONCLUSION: Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival.

Factors associated with the use of diet and the use of exercise for prostate cancer by long-term survivors.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the use of diet and the use of exercise for prostate cancer (and/or its treatments' side effects) by long-term survivors and whether such use is associated with selected socio-demographic, clinical, health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) and psychological factors. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based cohort study in New South Wales, Australia of prostate cancer survivors aged <70 years at diagnosis and who returned a 10-year follow-up questionnaire. METHODS: Validated instruments assessed patient's HRQOL and psychological well-being. Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted relative proportions (RRs) of prostate cancer survivor groups who were currently eating differently ('using diet') or exercise differently ('using exercise') to help with their prostate cancer. RESULTS: 996 (61.0% of 1634) participants completed the 10-year questionnaire of whom 118 (11.8%; 95%CI[9.8-13.9]) were using diet and 78 (7.8%; 95%CI[6.2-9.5]) were using exercise to help with their prostate cancer. Men were more likely to use diet or use exercise for prostate cancer if they were younger (p-trend = 0.020 for diet, p-trend = 0.045 for exercise), more educated (p-trend<0.001, p-trend = 0.011), support group participants (p-nominal<0.001, p-nominal = 0.005), had higher Gleason score at diagnosis (p-trend<0.001, p-trend = 0.002) and had knowledge of cancer spread (p-nominal = 0.002, p-nominal = 0.001). Use of diet was also associated with receipt of androgen deprivation therapy (RR = 1.59; 95%CI[1.04-2.45]), a greater fear of cancer recurrence (p-trend = 0.010), cognitive avoidance (p-trend = 0.025) and greater perceived control of cancer course (p-trend = 0.014). Use of exercise was also associated with receipt of prostatectomy (RR = 2.02; 95%CI[1.12-3.63]), receipt of androgen deprivation therapy (RR = 2.20; 95%CI[1.34-3.61]) and less satisfaction with medical treatments (p-trend = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: Few long-term prostate cancer survivors use diet or exercise to help with their prostate cancer. Survivors may benefit from counselling on the scientific evidence supporting healthy eating and regular exercise for improving quality-of-life and cancer-related outcomes.

Factors associated with the use of complementary and alternative medicines for prostate cancer by long-term survivors.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the use of complementary and alternative medicines therapies (CAMs) for prostate cancer and/or its treatment side effects by long-term survivors is associated with selected socio-demographic, clinical, health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) and/or psychological factors. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study (PCOS) is a population-based cohort study of men with prostate cancer who were aged less than 70 years at diagnosis in New South Wales, Australia. Included in these analyses were men who returned a 10-year follow-up questionnaire, which included questions about CAM use. METHODS: Validated instruments assessed patient's HRQOL and psychological well-being. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to estimate the adjusted relative risks of current CAM use for prostate cancer according to socio-demographic, clinical, HRQOL and psychological factors. RESULTS: 996 of 1634 (61%) living PCOS participants completed the 10-year questionnaire. Of these 996 men, 168 (17%) were using CAMs for prostate cancer and 525 (53%) were using CAMs for any reason (including prostate cancer). Those using CAM for prostate cancer were more likely to be regular or occasional support group participants (vs. no participation RR = 2.02; 95%CI 1.41-2.88), born in another country (vs. Australian born RR = 1.59; 95%CI 1.17-2.16), have received androgen deprivation treatment (ADT) since diagnosis (RR = 1.60; 95%CI 1.12-2.28) or in the past two years (RR = 2.34; 95%CI 1.56-3.52). CAM use was associated with greater fear of recurrence (RR = 1.29; 95%CI 1.12-1.48), cancer-specific distress (RR = 1.15; 95%CI 1.01-1.30), cancer-specific hyperarousal (RR = 1.17; 95%CI 1.04-1.31), cancer locus of control (RR = 1.16; 95%CI 1.01-1.34) and less satisfaction with medical treatments (RR = 0.86; 95%CI 0.76-0.97), but not with intrusive thinking, cognitive avoidance, depression, anxiety or any HRQOL domains. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, about one in six long term prostate cancer survivors used CAMs for their prostate cancer with use centred around ADT, country of birth, distress, cancer control, fear of recurrence and active help seeking.

Widening socioeconomic disparity in lung cancer incidence among men in New South Wales, Australia, 1987-2011.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the trends in lung cancer incidence over a 25-year period by socioeconomic groups for men in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: Men diagnosed with lung cancer between 1987 and 2011 were divided into five quintiles according to an Index of Education and Occupation (IEO). We assessed relative socioeconomic differences over time by calculating age-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by 5-year period of diagnosis, and estimated absolute differences by comparing the observed and expected numbers of cases using the highest IEO quintile as the reference. RESULTS: Lung cancer incidence for men decreased from 1987 to 2011 for all IEO quintiles, with a greater rate of decline for men living in the highest IEO areas. Thus, the relative disparity increased significantly over the 25-year period (P=0.0006). For example, the SIR for the lowest IEO quintile increased from 1.28 during 1987-1991 to 1.74 during 2007-2011. Absolute differences also increased with the proportion of " potentially preventable" cases doubling from 14.5% in 1987-1991 to 30.2% in 2007-2011. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the overall decline in lung cancer incidence among men in NSW over the past 25 years, there was a significant increase in disparity across socioeconomic areas in both relative and absolute terms.

Contrasting temporal trends in lung cancer incidence by socioeconomic status among women in New South Wales, Australia, 1985-2009.

OBJECTIVE: We examined long-term trends in lung cancer incidence for women by socioeconomic groups in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: Data on lung cancer incidence for women were extracted from the NSW Cancer Registry database. We divided the study cohort into five quintiles according to an area-based index of education and occupation (IEO) and calculated annual age-standardised incidence rates by IEO quintile for the period 1985-2009. The age-standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was estimated for IEO quintiles and 5-year period of diagnosis using the highest IEO quintile as the reference. RESULTS: Overall, lung cancer incidence for women aged 25-69 years increased gradually from 19.8 per 100,000 in 1985 to 25.7 per 100,000 in 2009. The trends by IEO quintile were somewhat comparable from 1985 through to 1995, but from then on rates remained relatively stable for women residing in the highest quintile while increasing for women residing in the remaining four quintiles. Consequently, the SIR for all four of the lower IEO quintiles increased significantly over the 25-year period. For example, the SIR in the lowest IEO quintile increased from 1.16 (95% CI, 0.99-1.37) during 1985-1989 to 1.70 (95% CI, 1.50-1.93) during 2005-2009. The corresponding estimates for women aged 70 years or older showed no clear pattern of socioeconomic gradient. CONCLUSION: The increasing gap in lung cancer incidence between women in the highest socioeconomic group and all others suggests that there is a continued need for the broad implementation of tobacco control interventions, so that smoking prevalence is reduced across all segments of the population and the subsequent benefits are shared more equitably across all demographic groups.

Colorectal cancer metastatic disease progression in Australia: A population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: No previous Australian population-based studies have described or quantified the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) to metastatic disease. We describe patterns of progression to metastatic disease for an Australian cohort diagnosed with localised or regional CRC. METHODS: All localised and regional CRC cases in the New South Wales Cancer Registry diagnosed during 2000-2007 were followed to December 2011 for subsequent metastases (identified by subsequent disease episode notifications) or CRC death. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with metastatic progression. RESULTS: After a median 5.3 years follow-up, 26.4% of the 12757 cases initially diagnosed with localised or regional colon cancer had developed metastatic disease, as had 29.5% of the 7154 rectal cancer cases. For both cancer sites, risk of metastatic progression was significantly higher for those initially diagnosed with regional disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.49 for colon, 2.66 for rectal cancer), and for older cases (e.g. aHR for >79years vs <60years: 1.38 for colon, 1.69 for rectal cancer). Risk of disease progression was significantly lower for females, and varied by histology type. For colon cancer, the risk of disease progression decreased over time. For rectal cancer, risk of metastatic progression was significantly higher for those living in more socioeconomically disadvantaged areas compared with those in the least disadvantaged area. CONCLUSIONS: An understanding of the variation in risk of metastatic progression is useful for planning health service requirements, and can help inform decisions about treatment and follow-up for colorectal cancer patients.

Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death.

To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973-1975, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973-1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990-1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004-2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres' beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15-64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

Lung cancer prevalence in New South Wales (Australia): Analysis of past trends and projection of future estimates.

BACKGROUND: To provide a temporal analysis of lung cancer prevalence over two decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia and projections of future lung cancer prevalence up to 2017. METHODS: Data for lung cancer cases diagnosed in 1983-2007 with survival follow-up to the end of 2007 were extracted from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Five-year prevalence was calculated by the counting method at five time points (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007) for which data were available, then historical prevalence trends (1987-2007) were extrapolated into 2008-2017. RESULTS: For men, 5-year prevalence of lung cancer in NSW increased slowly in number from 1748 in 1987 to 2151 in 2007, although there was a 15% reduction in prevalence rates over the same time period. For women, there was a greater increase both in number (2.55 times) and rates (88%) between 1987 and 2007. Despite the narrowing gap in lung cancer prevalence between men and women, in 2007 the 5-year prevalence for men was still higher than that for women. However, if the past trends continue, it is expected that in 2017 the 5-year lung cancer prevalence for women in NSW will surpass that for men. CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest that by 2017 the prevalence of lung cancer for women will be greater than that of men in NSW Australia. Further strengthening the current tobacco control measures should be considered a high priority in Australia, particularly for adolescents and women.

Temporal trends show improved breast cancer survival in Australia but widening urban-rural differences.

We examined geographic patterns in breast cancer survival over time using population-based data for breast cancer diagnosed between 1987 and 2007 in New South Wales, Australia. We found that five-year relative survival increased during the entire study period. Multivariable analysis indicated that there was little geographic variation in 1992-1996, but in 1997-2001 and 2002-2007 geographic variation was statistically significant (P < 0.01), with women living in rural areas having higher risk of death from breast cancer. The underlying reasons for this widening survival disparity must be identified so that appropriately targeted interventions can be implemented and the disparity reduced.

A population-based study of breast cancer prevalence in Australia: predicting the future health care needs of women living with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer places a heavy burden on the Australian healthcare system, but information about the actual number of women living with breast cancer and their current or future health service needs is limited. We used existing population-based data and innovative statistical methods to address this critical research question in a well-defined geographic region. METHODS: Breast cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry and PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software were used to project future breast cancer prevalence in NSW. Parametric models were fitted to incidence and survival data, and the modelled incidence and survival estimates were then used to estimate current and future prevalence. To estimate future healthcare requirements the projected prevalence was then divided into phases of care according to the different stages of the survivorship trajectory. RESULTS: The number of women in NSW living with a breast cancer diagnosis had increased from 19,305 in 1990 to 48,754 in 2007. This number is projected to increase further to 68,620 by 2017. The majority of these breast cancer survivors will require continued monitoring (31,974) or will be long-term survivors (29,785). About 9% will require active treatment (either initial therapy, or treatment for subsequent metastases or second cancer) and 1% will need end of life care due to breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Extrapolating these projections to the national Australian population would equate to 209,200 women living with breast cancer in Australia in 2017, many of whom will require active treatment or post-treatment monitoring. Thus, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required.

Cancer Screening among immigrants living in urban and regional Australia: results from the 45 and up study.

Over 25% of the Australian population are immigrants, and are less active participants in cancer screening programmes. Most immigrants live in urban areas of Australia, but a significant proportion (~20%), live in regional areas. This study explored differences in cancer screening participation by place of birth and residence. Self-reported use of mammogram, faecal occult blood test (FOBT), and/or prostate specific antigen (PSA) tests was obtained from 48,642 immigrants and 141,275 Australian-born participants aged 50 years or older in the 45 and Up Study (New South Wales, Australia 2006-2010). Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks of test use, adjusting for key socio-demographic characteristics. Overall, immigrants from Asia and Europe were less likely to have had any of the tests in the previous two years than Australian-born participants. Regional Australian-born participants were more likely to have had any of the tests than those living in urban areas. Regional immigrant participants were more likely to have had an FOBT or PSA test than those living in urban areas, but there were no differences in mammograms. This report identifies key immigrant groups in urban and regional areas that policymakers and healthcare providers should target with culturally appropriate information to promote cancer screening.

Cancer incidence and mortality in people aged less than 75 years: changes in Australia over the period 1987-2007.

BACKGROUND: Australia has one of the highest rates of cancer incidence worldwide and, despite improving survival, cancer continues to be a major public health problem. Our aim was to provide simple summary measures of changes in cancer mortality and incidence in Australia so that progress and areas for improvement in cancer control can be identified. METHODS: We used national data on cancer deaths and newly registered cancer cases and compared expected and observed numbers of deaths and cases diagnosed in 2007. The expected numbers were obtained by applying 1987 age-sex specific rates (average of 1986-1988) directly to the 2007 population. The observed numbers of deaths and incident cases were calculated for 2007 (average of 2006-2008). We limited the analyses to people aged less than 75 years. RESULTS: There was a 28% fall in cancer mortality (7827 fewer deaths in 2007 vs. 1987) and a 21% increase in new cancer diagnoses (13,012 more diagnosed cases in 2007). The greatest reductions in deaths were for cancers of the lung in males (-2259), bowel (-1797), breast (-773) and stomach (-577). Other notable falls were for cancers of the prostate (-295), cervix (-242) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (-240). Only small or no changes occurred in mortality for cancers of the lung (female only), pancreas, brain and related, oesophagus and thyroid, with an increase in liver cancer (267). Cancer types that showed the greatest increase in incident cases were cancers of the prostate (10,245), breast (2736), other cancers (1353), melanoma (1138) and thyroid (1107), while falls were seen for cancers of the lung (-1705), bladder (-1110) and unknown primary (-904). CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in mortality indicates that prevention strategies, improvements in cancer treatment, and screening programmes have made significant contributions to cancer control in Australia since 1987. The rise in incidence is partly due to diagnoses being brought forward by technological improvements and increased coverage of screening and early diagnostic testing.

Postsurgical pathology reporting of thyroid cancer in New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Clear, accurate, and complete reporting of postsurgical pathology is crucial for the correct evaluation and management of thyroid cancer patients. This study aimed to describe the completeness, as defined by international guidelines, of pathology reporting in a cohort of newly diagnosed thyroid cancer patients in New South Wales (NSW) and to identify factors associated with the completeness of reports. METHODS: Postsurgical pathology reports, held by the NSW Central Cancer Registry, for 448 thyroid cancer patients were reviewed. Presence or absence of recommended key features (tumor histology type, maximum dimension, focality, completeness of excision, extrathyroidal extension, lymphovascular invasion, and lymph node involvement) was recorded. Associations between the number of key items reported and several patient characteristics were investigated. RESULTS: For 285 (63.6%) patients one or more key pathological features were missing, with 177 (39.5%) missing one only, 88 (19.6%) missing two, and 20 (4.5%) missing three or more. Extrathyroidal extension was the most poorly reported key feature, being present in only 228 (50.9%) reports [95% confidence interval 46.2, 55.6]. Pathology reports were less complete for patients with small tumor size (p<0.001) or localized spread (p<0.001). Synoptic reports were significantly more complete than narrative-style reports (98.3% vs. 27.1%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Postsurgical pathology reporting of differentiated thyroid cancer in NSW was found to be far from complete, with 64% of reports missing information on at least one feature that is considered internationally to be a critical factor in the prognosis and treatment of thyroid cancer patients. Synoptic reporting reduces the number of key features missing from pathology reports.

Pathways to the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in New South Wales: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Over the past few decades, an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been recorded in many countries around the world including Australia. Heightened medical surveillance and increased technological sensitivity could be contributing to greater detection of asymptomatic disease. OBJECTIVES: To describe the pathways to diagnosis of thyroid cancer for a cohort of newly diagnosed patients in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and compare these pathways by age, sex, place of residence, ethnic background, medical insurance status, and disease characteristics. METHODS: A total of 452 newly diagnosed cases of thyroid cancer were recruited through the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Participants completed a questionnaire and diary of doctor visits and investigations that led to their diagnosis. Tumor characteristics were obtained from pathology reports. RESULTS: Forty percent of patients initially presented to their doctor with a lump or symptom specific to thyroid cancer and 60% had their cancer detected incidentally during a medical encounter. Men were more likely than women to be diagnosed after imaging for another health concern versus reporting a thyroid lump or symptom (p = 0.001). Thyroid cancer diagnosis after imaging for another health concern increased with age (p = 0.023), and larger tumors were less likely to be diagnosed after treatment for a benign thyroid disease (p = 0.040). CONCLUSION: As the majority of participants had incidental diagnoses, the reported incidence of thyroid cancer is likely to be influenced by diagnostic technology and medical surveillance practices. This, however, probably only partly explains the observed rise in the incidence of thyroid cancer in NSW.