Prevalence of chronic pain or analgesic use in children and young people and its long-term impact on substance misuse, mental illness, and prescription opioid use: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest chronic and recurrent pain affects around a quarter of children, while 8% report intense and frequent pain. The long-term implications of chronic pain in childhood are uncertain. Using electronic health records (EHRs) we used both disease codes and medicines prescription records to investigate the scale of chronic pain and long-term analgesic use in children and young people (CYP), and if chronic pain and/or use of analgesic medicines at an early age is associated with substance misuse, use of prescription opioids, and poor mental health in adulthood. Methods: We conducted a cohort study using data from IQVIA Medical Research Data UK. We identified individuals aged 2-24 with exposure to either a diagnostic code indicating chronic pain (diagnosis-exposed), repeat prescription for medicines commonly used to treat pain (prescription-exposed), or both. Follow-up began at 25, and the unexposed population acted as comparators. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for mental health and substance misuse outcomes, and rate ratios (RR) for opioid prescriptions in adulthood. Additionally, we investigated which diagnoses, if any, were over-represented in the prescription-exposed subgroup. Findings: The cohort constituted 853,625 individuals; 146,431 had one or more of the exposures of interest (diagnosis-exposed = 115,101, prescription-exposed = 20,298, both-exposed = 11,032), leaving 707,194 as comparators. Median age at index exposure was 18.7 years (IQR 14.7-22.3). On average during follow-up, the pooled exposed group had, respectively, a 31% and 17% higher risk of adverse mental health and substance misuse outcomes (adjusted HR [95% CI] of 1.31 [1.29-1.32] and 1.17 [1.11-1.24]). Exposed individuals also received prescription opioids at double the rate of unexposed individuals on average during follow-up (adjusted RR 2.01 [95% CI 1.95-2.10]). Outcomes varied between exposure subgroups, with prescription- and both-exposure tending to have worse outcomes. Unlike these two subgroups, in the diagnosis-exposed subgroup we did not detect a greater risk of substance misuse. Interpretation: Chronic pain in CYP is associated with increased prescription opioid use and adverse mental health outcomes in adulthood, as is repeat prescription for analgesic medicines, but only the latter is also associated with substance misuse in adulthood. It is essential to avoid the harms of under-treating pain in CYP while giving due consideration to the risks posed by analgesic medicines. Early recognition of chronic pain in CYP and utilising non-pharmacological management options may help minimise overprescribing, and long-term reliance on dependence-forming-drugs. Funding: AL is an NIHR funded academic clinical fellow, and was supported by funding from UCLH Charities while carrying out this work. RS and DS are part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform and were supported by a UKRI and Versus Arthritis grant (MR/W002566/1) as part of the Consortium Against Pain Inequality. AW was supported by the Wellcome Trust (220558/Z/20/Z).

Garlic consumption in relation to colorectal cancer risk and to alterations of blood bacterial DNA.

PURPOSE: Garlic consumption has been inversely associated to intestinal adenoma (IA) and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, although evidence is not consistent. Gut microbiota has been implied in CRC pathogenesis and is also influenced by garlic consumption. We analyzed whether dietary garlic influence CRC risk and bacterial DNA in blood. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in Italy involving 100 incident CRC cases, 100 IA and 100 healthy controls matched by center, sex and age. We used a validated food frequency questionnaire to assess dietary habits and garlic consumption. Blood bacterial DNA profile was estimated using qPCR and16S rRNA gene profiling. We derived odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of IA and CRC according to garlic consumption from multiple conditional logistic regression. We used Mann-Whitney and chi-square tests to evaluate taxa differences in abundance and prevalence. RESULTS: The OR of CRC for medium/high versus low/null garlic consumption was 0.27 (95% CI = 0.11-0.66). Differences in garlic consumption were found for selected blood bacterial taxa. Medium/high garlic consumption was associated to an increase of Corynebacteriales order, Nocardiaceae family and Rhodococcus genus, and to a decrease of Family XI and Finegoldia genus. CONCLUSIONS: The study adds data on the protective effect of dietary garlic on CRC risk. Moreover, it supports evidence of a translocation of bacterial material to bloodstream and corroborates the hypothesis of a diet-microbiota axis as a mechanism behind the role of garlic in CRC prevention.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management.

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Predictors of high flow oxygen therapy failure in COVID-19-related severe hypoxemic respiratory failure.

Background: During COVID-19 pandemic, people who developed pneumonia and needed supplemental oxygen, where treated with low-flow oxygen therapy systems and non-invasive methods, including oxygen therapy using high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and the application of bi-level or continuous positive airway pressure (BiPAP or CPAP). We aimed to investigate the outcomes of critical COVID-19 patients treated with HFNC and unveil predictors of HFNC failure. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled patients admitted to COVID-19 wards and treated with HFNC for COVID-19-related severe hypoxemic respiratory failure. The primary outcome of this study was treatment failure, such as the composite of intubation or death during hospital stay. The association between treatment failure and clinical features was evaluated using logistic regression models. Results: One hundred thirty-two patients with a median (IQR) PaO2/FiO2 ratio 96 (63-173) mmHg at HFNC initiation were studied. Overall, 45.4% of the patients were intubated. Hospital mortality was 31.8%. Treatment failure (intubation or death) occurred in 50.75% and after adjustment for age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI) score and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) score on admission and PaO2/FiO2 ratio and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) severity at the time of HFNO initiation, it was significantly associated with the presence of dyspnea [adjusted OR 2.48 (95% CI: 1.01-6.12)], and higher Urea serum levels [adjusted OR 1.25 (95% CI: 1.03-1.51) mg/dL]. Conclusions: HFNC treatment was successful in almost half of the patients with severe COVID-19-related acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF). The presence of dyspnea and high serum Urea levels on admission are closely related to HFNC failure.

Evaluation of antithrombotic use and COVID-19 outcomes in a nationwide atrial fibrillation cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate antithrombotic (AT) use in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) and at high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2) and investigate whether pre-existing AT use may improve COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: Individuals with AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 on 1 January 2020 were identified using electronic health records for 56 million people in England and were followed up until 1 May 2021. Factors associated with pre-existing AT use were analysed using logistic regression. Differences in COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death were analysed using logistic and Cox regression in individuals with pre-existing AT use versus no AT use, anticoagulants (AC) versus antiplatelets (AP), and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin. RESULTS: From 972 971 individuals with AF (age 79 (±9.3), female 46.2%) and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, 88.0% (n=856 336) had pre-existing AT use, 3.8% (n=37 418) had a COVID-19 hospitalisation and 2.2% (n=21 116) died, followed up to 1 May 2021. Factors associated with no AT use included comorbidities that may contraindicate AT use (liver disease and history of falls) and demographics (socioeconomic status and ethnicity). Pre-existing AT use was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96), but higher odds of hospitalisation (OR=1.20, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.26). AC versus AP was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98) and higher hospitalisation (OR=1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24). For DOACs versus warfarin, lower odds were observed for hospitalisation (OR=0.86, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.89) but not for death (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing AT use may be associated with lower odds of COVID-19 death and, while not evidence of causality, provides further incentive to improve AT coverage for eligible individuals with AF.

Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity and Associated Diet-Related Behaviours and Habits in a Representative Sample of Adolescents in Greece.

Excessive body weight during adolescence represents a significant public health problem worldwide. Identifying factors associated with its development is crucial. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity in a representative sample of 11, 13 and, 15-year-olds living in Greece and explored the association with diet-related behaviours and habits. Self-reported data on weight, height, diet-related behaviours and habits were used from 3816 students (1898 boys, 1918 girls) participants in the Greek arm of the international Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study during 2018. Overweight and obesity were defined using the 2007 WHO growth charts classification. Prevalence of overweight was 19.4% in the total sample, 24.1% for boys and 14.7% for girls, and prevalence of obesity was 5.3% in the total sample, 7.3% for boys and 3.4% for girls, respectively. In the total sample, overweight (including obesity) was positively associated with male gender, low family affluence, skipping breakfast, and being on a diet, and inversely associated with age and being physically active. Eating rarely with the family was positively associated with overweight only among boys and eating snacks/meals in front of screens only among girls. No association was noted for eating in fast-food restaurants, consuming vegetables, fruits, sweets, and sugar-sweetened beverages.

Circulating inflammatory cytokines and risk of five cancers: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological and experimental evidence has linked chronic inflammation to cancer aetiology. It is unclear whether associations for specific inflammatory biomarkers are causal or due to bias. In order to examine whether altered genetically predicted concentration of circulating cytokines are associated with cancer development, we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. METHODS: Up to 31,112 individuals of European descent were included in genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses of 47 circulating cytokines. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with the cytokines, located in or close to their coding gene (cis), were used as instrumental variables. Inverse-variance weighted MR was used as the primary analysis, and the MR assumptions were evaluated in sensitivity and colocalization analyses and a false discovery rate (FDR) correction for multiple comparisons was applied. Corresponding germline GWAS summary data for five cancer outcomes (breast, endometrial, lung, ovarian, and prostate), and their subtypes were selected from the largest cancer-specific GWASs available (cases ranging from 12,906 for endometrial to 133,384 for breast cancer). RESULTS: There was evidence of inverse associations of macrophage migration inhibitory factor with breast cancer (OR per SD = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist with endometrial cancer (0.86, 0.80 to 0.93), interleukin-18 with lung cancer (0.87, 0.81 to 0.93), and beta-chemokine-RANTES with ovarian cancer (0.70, 0.57 to 0.85) and positive associations of monokine induced by gamma interferon with endometrial cancer (3.73, 1.86 to 7.47) and cutaneous T-cell attracting chemokine with lung cancer (1.51, 1.22 to 1.87). These associations were similar in sensitivity analyses and supported in colocalization analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study adds to current knowledge on the role of specific inflammatory biomarker pathways in cancer aetiology. Further validation is needed to assess the potential of these cytokines as pharmacological or lifestyle targets for cancer prevention.

Late effects of cancer in children, teenagers and young adults: Population-based study on the burden of 183 conditions, in-patient and critical care admissions and years of life lost.

BACKGROUND: Children, teenagers and young adults who survived cancer are prone to developing late effects. The burden of late effects across a large number of conditions, in-patient hospitalisation and critical care admissions have not been described using a population-based dataset. We aim to systematically quantify the cumulative burden of late effects across all cancer subtypes, treatment modalities and chemotherapy drug classes. METHODS: We employed primary care records linked to hospitals, the death registry and cancer registry from 1998-2020. CTYA survivors were 25 years or younger at the time of cancer diagnosis had survived ≥5 years post-diagnosis. Year-of-birth and sex-matched community controls were used for comparison. We considered nine treatment types, nine chemotherapy classes and 183 physical and mental health late effects. Cumulative burden was estimated using mean cumulative count, which considers recurring events. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the association between treatment exposures and late effects. Excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to late effects were estimated. FINDINGS: Among 4,063 patients diagnosed with cancer, 3,466 survived ≥ 5 years (85%); 13,517 matched controls were identified. The cumulative burden of late effects at age 35 was the highest in survivors of leukaemia (23.52 per individual [95% CI:19.85-29.33]) and lowest in survivors of germ cell tumours (CI:6.04 [5.32-6.91]). In controls, the cumulative burden was 3.99 (CI:3.93-4.08) at age 35 years. When survivors reach age 45, the cumulative burden for immunological conditions and infections was the highest (3.27 [CI:3.01-3.58]), followed by cardiovascular conditions (3.08 [CI:1.98-3.29]). Survivors who received chemotherapy and radiotherapy had the highest disease burden compared to those who received surgery only. These patients also had the highest burden of hospitalisation (by age 45: 10.43 [CI:8.27-11.95]). Survivors who received antimetabolite chemotherapy had the highest disease and hospitalisation burden, while the lowest burden is observed in those receiving antitumour antibiotics. Regression analyses revealed that survivors who received only surgery had lower odds of developing cardiovascular (adjusted odds ratio 0.73 [CI:0.56-0.94]), haematological (aOR 0.51 [CI:0.37-0.70]), immunology and infection (aOR 0.84 [CI:0.71-0.99]) and renal (aOR 0.51 [CI:0.39-0.66]) late effects. By contrast, the opposite trend was observed in survivors who received chemo-radiotherapy. High antimetabolite chemotherapy cumulative dose was associated with increased risks of subsequent cancer (aOR 2.32 [CI:1.06-4.84]), metastatic cancer (aOR 4.44 [CI:1.29-11.66]) and renal (aOR 3.48 [CI:1.36-7.86]) conditions. Patients who received radiation dose of ≥50 Gy experienced higher risks of developing metastatic cancer (aOR 5.51 [CI:2.21-11.86]), cancer (aOR 3.77 [CI:2.22-6.34]), haematological (aOR 3.43 [CI:1.54-6.83]) and neurological (aOR 3.24 [CI:1.78-5.66]) conditions. Similar trends were observed in survivors who received more than three teletherapy fields. Cumulative burden analyses on 183 conditions separately revealed varying dominance of different late effects across cancer types, socioeconomic deprivation and treatment modalities. Late effects are associated with excess YLL (i.e., the difference in YLL between survivors with or without late effects), which was the most pronounced among survivors with haematological comorbidities. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first study to dissect and quantify the importance of late morbidities on subsequent survival using linked electronic health records from multiple settings. The burden of late effects is heterogeneous, as is the risk of premature mortality associated with late effects. We provide an extensive knowledgebase to help inform treatment decisions at the point of diagnosis, future interventional trials and late-effects screening centred on the holistic needs of this vulnerable population.

'What is the risk to me from COVID-19?': Public involvement in providing mortality risk information for people with 'high-risk' conditions for COVID-19 (OurRisk.CoV).

Patients and public have sought mortality risk information throughout the pandemic, but their needs may not be served by current risk prediction tools. Our mixed methods study involved: (1) systematic review of published risk tools for prognosis, (2) provision and patient testing of new mortality risk estimates for people with high-risk conditions and (3) iterative patient and public involvement and engagement with qualitative analysis. Only one of 53 (2%) previously published risk tools involved patients or the public, while 11/53 (21%) had publicly accessible portals, but all for use by clinicians and researchers.Among people with a wide range of underlying conditions, there has been sustained interest and engagement in accessible and tailored, pre- and postpandemic mortality information. Informed by patient feedback, we provide such information in 'five clicks' (https://covid19-phenomics.org/OurRiskCoV.html), as context for decision making and discussions with health professionals and family members. Further development requires curation and regular updating of NHS data and wider patient and public engagement.

An informatics consult approach for generating clinical evidence for treatment decisions.

BACKGROUND: An Informatics Consult has been proposed in which clinicians request novel evidence from large scale health data resources, tailored to the treatment of a specific patient. However, the availability of such consultations is lacking. We seek to provide an Informatics Consult for a situation where a treatment indication and contraindication coexist in the same patient, i.e., anti-coagulation use for stroke prevention in a patient with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and liver cirrhosis. METHODS: We examined four sources of evidence for the effect of warfarin on stroke risk or all-cause mortality from: (1) randomised controlled trials (RCTs), (2) meta-analysis of prior observational studies, (3) trial emulation (using population electronic health records (N = 3,854,710) and (4) genetic evidence (Mendelian randomisation). We developed prototype forms to request an Informatics Consult and return of results in electronic health record systems. RESULTS: We found 0 RCT reports and 0 trials recruiting for patients with AF and cirrhosis. We found broad concordance across the three new sources of evidence we generated. Meta-analysis of prior observational studies showed that warfarin use was associated with lower stroke risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.71, CI 0.39-1.29). In a target trial emulation, warfarin was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.61, CI 0.49-0.76) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.27, CI 0.08-0.91). Mendelian randomisation served as a drug target validation where we found that lower levels of vitamin K1 (warfarin is a vitamin K1 antagonist) are associated with lower stroke risk. A pilot survey with an independent sample of 34 clinicians revealed that 85% of clinicians found information on prognosis useful and that 79% thought that they should have access to the Informatics Consult as a service within their healthcare systems. We identified candidate steps for automation to scale evidence generation and to accelerate the return of results. CONCLUSION: We performed a proof-of-concept Informatics Consult for evidence generation, which may inform treatment decisions in situations where there is dearth of randomised trials. Patients are surprised to know that their clinicians are currently not able to learn in clinic from data on 'patients like me'. We identify the key challenges in offering such an Informatics Consult as a service.

Identifying adults at high-risk for change in weight and BMI in England: a longitudinal, large-scale, population-based cohort study using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Targeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR). METHODS: In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions. FINDINGS: We included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period. INTERPRETATION: A radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care. FUNDING: The British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.

Weight Change and the Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: Emulating Trials Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional measures of body mass index (BMI) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but less is known about whether weight change affects the risk of CVD. METHODS: We estimated the effect of 2-y weight change interventions on 7-y risk of CVD (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization from coronary heart disease, and heart failure) by emulating hypothetical interventions using electronic health records. We identified 138,567 individuals with 45-69 years of age without chronic disease in England from 1998 to 2016. We performed pooled logistic regression, using inverse-probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. We categorized each individual into a weight loss, maintenance, or gain group. RESULTS: Among those of normal weight, both weight loss [risk difference (RD) vs. weight maintenance = 1.5% (0.3% to 3.0%)] and gain [RD = 1.3% (0.5% to 2.2%)] were associated with increased risk for CVD compared with weight maintenance. Among overweight individuals, we observed moderately higher risk of CVD in both the weight loss [RD = 0.7% (-0.2% to 1.7%)] and the weight gain group [RD = 0.7% (-0.1% to 1.7%)], compared with maintenance. In the obese, those losing weight showed lower risk of coronary heart disease [RD = -1.4% (-2.4% to -0.6%)] but not of stroke. When we assumed that chronic disease occurred 1-3 years before the recorded date, estimates for weight loss and gain were attenuated among overweight individuals; estimates for loss were lower among obese individuals. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with obesity, the weight-loss group had a lower risk of coronary heart disease but not of stroke. Weight gain was associated with increased risk of CVD across BMI groups. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B838.

Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIMS: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths. CONCLUSION: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.

Coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have reported either null or weak protective associations for coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer. METHODS: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the relationship between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk using 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coffee consumption from a genome-wide association (GWA) study on 212,119 female UK Biobank participants of White British ancestry. Risk estimates for breast cancer were retrieved from publicly available GWA summary statistics from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) on 122,977 cases (of which 69,501 were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, 21,468 ER-negative) and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. Random-effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR analyses were performed along with several sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential MR assumption violations. RESULTS: One cup per day increase in genetically predicted coffee consumption in women was not associated with risk of total (IVW random-effects; odds ratio (OR): 0.91, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.80-1.02, P: 0.12, P for instrument heterogeneity: 7.17e-13), ER-positive (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.02, P: 0.09) and ER-negative breast cancer (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.75-1.03, P: 0.12). Null associations were also found in the sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger (total breast cancer; OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.80-1.25), weighted median (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89-1.05) and weighted mode (OR: 1.00, CI: 0.93-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this large MR study do not support an association of genetically predicted coffee consumption on breast cancer risk, but we cannot rule out existence of a weak association.

Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services and excess 1-year mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity: near real-time data on cancer care, cancer deaths and a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer. METHODS: We employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England. RESULTS: Declines in urgent referrals (median=-70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=-44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks.

Clinical academic research in the time of Corona: A simulation study in England and a call for action.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to model the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the clinical academic response in England, and to provide recommendations for COVID-related research. DESIGN: A stochastic model to determine clinical academic capacity in England, incorporating the following key factors which affect the ability to conduct research in the COVID-19 climate: (i) infection growth rate and population infection rate (from UK COVID-19 statistics and WHO); (ii) strain on the healthcare system (from published model); and (iii) availability of clinical academic staff with appropriate skillsets affected by frontline clinical activity and sickness (from UK statistics). SETTING: Clinical academics in primary and secondary care in England. PARTICIPANTS: Equivalent of 3200 full-time clinical academics in England. INTERVENTIONS: Four policy approaches to COVID-19 with differing population infection rates: "Italy model" (6%), "mitigation" (10%), "relaxed mitigation" (40%) and "do-nothing" (80%) scenarios. Low and high strain on the health system (no clinical academics able to do research at 10% and 5% infection rate, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of full-time clinical academics available to conduct clinical research during the pandemic in England. RESULTS: In the "Italy model", "mitigation", "relaxed mitigation" and "do-nothing" scenarios, from 5 March 2020 the duration (days) and peak infection rates (%) are 95(2.4%), 115(2.5%), 240(5.3%) and 240(16.7%) respectively. Near complete attrition of academia (87% reduction, <400 clinical academics) occurs 35 days after pandemic start for 11, 34, 62, 76 days respectively-with no clinical academics at all for 37 days in the "do-nothing" scenario. Restoration of normal academic workforce (80% of normal capacity) takes 11, 12, 30 and 26 weeks respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic COVID-19 crushes the science needed at system level. National policies mitigate, but the academic community needs to adapt. We highlight six key strategies: radical prioritisation (eg 3-4 research ideas per institution), deep resourcing, non-standard leadership (repurposing of key non-frontline teams), rationalisation (profoundly simple approaches), careful site selection (eg protected sites with large academic backup) and complete suspension of academic competition with collaborative approaches.