Patients' Preferences for Sphingosine-1-Phosphate Receptor Modulators in Multiple Sclerosis Based on Clinical Management Considerations: A Choice Experiment.

BACKGROUND: Several sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor (S1PR) modulators are available in the US for treating relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS). Given that these S1PR modulators have similar efficacy and safety, patients may consider the clinical management characteristics of the S1PR modulators when deciding among treatments. However, none of the S1PR modulators is clearly superior in every aspect of clinical management, and for some treatments, clinical management varies based on a patient's comorbid health conditions (e.g., heart conditions [HC]). OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine which S1PR modulator patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) would prefer based on clinical management considerations, and to estimate how different clinical management considerations might drive these preferences. Preferences were explored separately for patients with and without comorbid HC. METHODS: A multicriteria decision analysis was conducted on S1PR modulators approved to treat RMS: fingolimod, ozanimod, siponimod, and ponesimod. Clinical management preferences of patients with RRMS were elicited in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which participants repeatedly chose between hypothetical S1PR modulator profiles based on their clinical management attributes. Attributes included first-dose observations, genotyping, liver function tests, eye examinations, drug-drug interactions, interactions with antidepressants, interactions with foods high in tyramine, and immune system recovery time. Preferences were estimated separately for patients with HC and without HC (noHC). Marginal utilities were calculated from the DCE data for each attribute and level using a mixed logit model. In the multicriteria decision analysis, partial value scores were created by applying the marginal utilities for each attribute and level to the real-world profiles of S1PR modulators. Partial value scores were summed to determine an overall clinical management value score for each S1PR modulator. RESULTS: Four hundred patients with RRMS completed the DCE. Ponesimod had the highest overall value score for patients both without (n = 341) and with (n = 59) HC (noHC: 5.1; HC: 4.0), followed by siponimod (noHC: 4.9; HC: 3.3), fingolimod (noHC: 3.4; HC: 2.8), and ozanimod (noHC: 0.9; HC: 0.8). Overall, immune system recovery time contributed the highest partial value scores (noHC: up to 1.9 points; HC: up to 1.2 points), followed by the number of drug-drug interactions (noHC: up to 1.2 points; HC: up to 1.7 points). CONCLUSIONS: When considering the clinical management of S1PR modulators, the average patient with RRMS is expected to choose a treatment with shorter immune system recovery time and fewer interactions with other drugs. Patients both with and without heart conditions are likely to prefer the clinical management profile of ponesimod over those of siponimod, fingolimod, and ozanimod. This information can help inform recommendations for treating RRMS and facilitate shared decision making between patients and their doctors.

Sex Differences in Diagnosis and Treatment Timing of Comorbid Depression/Anxiety and Disease Subtypes in Patients With ADHD: A Database Study.

OBJECTIVE: Our study examined the impact of sex, ADHD subtype, and comorbid illnesses (depression/anxiety) on the timing of diagnosis and treatment for ADHD. METHOD: To analyze ADHD patients, four health databases were used to assess subtype, comorbid mood, and antidepressant or anxiolytic drug exposure. Analyses were stratified by sex and age. Standardized mean differences measured intergroup differences. RESULTS: Females with ADHD were identified at older ages and had higher rates of depression and anxiety diagnoses and treatments before and after their initial ADHD diagnosis. Predominantly inattentive ADHD patients were diagnosed later and more likely to receive mood disorder diagnosis and treatment than hyperactive impulsive ADHD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest a more complex ADHD presentation in females, potentially causing late diagnosis and delayed treatment.

Association between prolactin increasing antipsychotic use and the risk of breast cancer: a retrospective observational cohort study in a United States Medicaid population.

Introduction: Results of retrospective studies examining the relationship between prolactin increasing antipsychotics and incident breast cancer have been inconsistent. This study assessed the association between use of high prolactin increasing antipsychotics (HPD) and the incidence of breast cancer using best practices in pharmacoepidemiology. Methods: Using administrative claims data from the MarketScan Medicaid database, schizophrenia patients initiating antipsychotics were identified. Those initiating HPD were compared with new users of non/low prolactin increasing drugs (NPD). Two definitions of breast cancer, two at-risk periods, and two large-scale propensity score (PS) adjustment methods were used in separate analyses. PS models included all previously diagnosed conditions, medication use, demographics, and other available medical history. Negative control outcomes were used for empirical calibration. Results: Five analysis variants passed all diagnostics for sufficient statistical power and balance across all covariates. Four of the five variants used an intent-to-treat (ITT) approach. Between 4,256 and 6,341 patients were included in each group for the ITT analyses, and patients contributed approximately four years of follow-up time on average. There was no statistically significant association between exposure to HPD and risk of incident breast cancer in any analysis, and hazard ratios remained close to 1.0, ranging from 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.62 - 1.48) to 1.28 (0.40 - 4.07). Discussion: Using multiple PS methods, outcome definitions and at-risk periods provided robust and consistent results which found no evidence of an association between use of HPD and risk of breast cancer.

Investigation of an mpox outbreak affecting many vaccinated persons in Chicago, IL-March 2023-June 2023.

BACKGROUND: After months of few mpox cases, an increased number of cases were reported in Chicago during May 2023; predominantly among fully vaccinated patients. We investigated the outbreak scope, differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, and hypotheses for monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection after vaccination. METHODS: We interviewed patients and reviewed medical records to assess demographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics, mpox vaccine status, and vaccine administration routes. We evaluated serum antibody levels after infection and compared patient viral genomes with MPXV sequences in available databases. We discussed potential vaccine compromise with partners who manufactured, handled, and administered vaccine associated with breakthrough infections. RESULTS: During March 18-June 27, 2023, we identified 49 mpox cases; 57% of these mpox patients were fully vaccinated (FV). FV patients received both JYNNEOS doses subcutaneously (57%), intradermally (7%), or via heterologous administration (36%). FV patients had more median sex partners (3, IQR=1-4) versus not fully vaccinated (NFV) patients (1, IQR=1-2). Thirty-six of 37 sequenced specimens belonged to lineage B.1.20 of clade IIb MPXV, which did not demonstrate any amino acid changes relative to B.1, the predominant lineage from May 2022. Vaccinated patients demonstrated expected humoral antibody responses; none were hospitalized. No vaccine storage excursions were identified. Approximately 63% of people at risk for mpox in Chicago were FV during this period. CONCLUSIONS: Our investigation indicated cases were likely due to frequent behaviors associated with mpox transmission, even with relatively high vaccine effectiveness and vaccine coverage. Cases after vaccination might occur in similar populations.

Incidence of mental health diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multinational network study.

AIMS: Population-wide restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic may create barriers to mental health diagnosis. This study aims to examine changes in the number of incident cases and the incidence rates of mental health diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: By using electronic health records from France, Germany, Italy, South Korea and the UK and claims data from the US, this study conducted interrupted time-series analyses to compare the monthly incident cases and the incidence of depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, alcohol misuse or dependence, substance misuse or dependence, bipolar disorders, personality disorders and psychoses diagnoses before (January 2017 to February 2020) and after (April 2020 to the latest available date of each database [up to November 2021]) the introduction of COVID-related restrictions. RESULTS: A total of 629,712,954 individuals were enrolled across nine databases. Following the introduction of restrictions, an immediate decline was observed in the number of incident cases of all mental health diagnoses in the US (rate ratios (RRs) ranged from 0.005 to 0.677) and in the incidence of all conditions in France, Germany, Italy and the US (RRs ranged from 0.002 to 0.422). In the UK, significant reductions were only observed in common mental illnesses. The number of incident cases and the incidence began to return to or exceed pre-pandemic levels in most countries from mid-2020 through 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare providers should be prepared to deliver service adaptations to mitigate burdens directly or indirectly caused by delays in the diagnosis and treatment of mental health conditions.

SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection Risk in Persons with HIV, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020-2022.

Understanding if persons with HIV (PWH) have a higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection may help tailor future COVID-19 public health guidance. To determine whether HIV infection was associated with increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, we followed adult residents of Chicago, Illinois, USA, with SARS-CoV-2 longitudinally from their first reported infection through May 31, 2022. We matched SARS-CoV-2 laboratory data and COVID-19 vaccine administration data to Chicago's Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System. Among 453,587 Chicago residents with SARS-CoV-2, a total of 5% experienced a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, including 192/2,886 (7%) PWH and 23,642/450,701 (5%) persons without HIV. We observed higher SARS-CoV-2 reinfection incidence rates among PWH (66 [95% CI 57-77] cases/1,000 person-years) than PWOH (50 [95% CI 49-51] cases/1,000 person-years). PWH had a higher adjusted rate of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection (1.46, 95% CI 1.27-1.68) than those without HIV. PWH should follow the recommended COVID-19 vaccine schedule, including booster doses.

Suicide-specific mortality among patients with treatment-resistant major depressive disorder, major depressive disorder with prior suicidal ideation or suicide attempts, or major depressive disorder alone.

BACKGROUND: The impact of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) or prior suicidal ideation/suicide attempt (SI/SA) on mortality by suicide among patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) is not well known. This retrospective, observational, descriptive cohort study characterized real-world rates of suicide-specific mortality among patients with MDD with or without TRD or SI/SA. METHODS: Adult patients with MDD among commercially insured and Medicare enrollees in Optum Research Database were included and assigned to three cohorts: those with treatment-resistant MDD (TRD), those with MDD and SI/SA (MDD+SI/SA), and those with MDD without TRD or SI/SA (MDD alone). Suicide-specific mortality was obtained from the National Death Index. The effects of demographic characteristics and SI/SA in the year prior to the end of observation on suicide-specific mortality were assessed. RESULTS: For the 139,753 TRD, 85,602 MDD+SI/SA, and 572,098 MDD alone cohort patients, mean age ranged from 55 to 59 years and the majority were female. At baseline, anxiety disorders were present in 53.92%, 44.11%, and 21.72% of patients with TRD, MDD+SI/SA, and MDD alone, respectively. Suicide-mortality rates in the three cohorts were 0.14/100 person-years for TRD, 0.27/100 person-years for MDD+SI/SA, and 0.04/100 person-years for MDD alone. SI/SA during the year prior to the end of observation, younger age, and male sex were associated with increased suicide risk. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with TRD and MDD+SI/SA have a heightened risk of mortality by suicide compared with patients with MDD alone. Suicide rates were higher in patients with recent history versus older or no history of SI/SA, men versus women, and those of young age versus older age.

Impact of the extended-release/long-acting opioid analgesics risk evaluation and mitigation strategy on prescribing practices.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of extended-release (ER)/long-acting (LA) opioid prescriber training on prescribing behaviors. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Prescriber training was evaluated from June 1, 2013 through December 31, 2016. The full study period was 2 years longer, from June 1, 2012 through December 31, 2017, to include data for all prescribers' 1-year pretraining and post-training periods. PARTICIPANTS: 24,428 prescribers who wrote ER/LA opioid prescriptions for eligible patients, with a record of training from the partner continuing education provider between June 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016. INTERVENTION: ER/LA opioid prescriber training. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prescribing behaviors 1-year before (pretraining) and after (post-training) prescribers completed training, specifically the proportion of opioid-nontolerant patients receiving ER/LA opioids indicated for opioid-tolerant patients and for patients receiving ≥100 morphine equivalents dose daily, and the proportion of concomitant users of central nervous system depressant drugs. RESULTS: The differences in the proportion of opioid-nontolerant patients receiving ER/LA opioids indicated for opi-oid-tolerant patients and for patients receiving ≥100 morphine equivalents dose daily were -0.69 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: -1.78 percent, 0.40 percent) and -0.23 percent (95 percent CI: -1.18 percent, 0.68 percent), respectively. The differences in the proportion of concomitant users of central nervous system depressant drugs were -0.94 percent (95 percent CI: -1.39 percent; -0.48 percent) for benzodiazepines, 0.06 percent (95 percent CI: -0.13 percent; 0.25 percent) for antipsychotics, -0.41 percent (95 percent CI: -0.69 percent; -0.13 percent) for hypnotics/sedatives, and 0.08 percent (95 percent CI: -0.40 percent; 0.57 percent) for muscle relaxants. CONCLUSIONS: While prescribers showed some changes in prescribing behavior after completing training, training was not associated with clinically relevant changes in prescribing behaviors.

Structural basis for assembly and lipid-mediated gating of LRRC8A:C volume-regulated anion channels.

Leucine-rich repeat-containing protein 8 (LRRC8) family members form volume-regulated anion channels activated by hypoosmotic cell swelling. LRRC8 channels are ubiquitously expressed in vertebrate cells as heteromeric assemblies of LRRC8A (SWELL1) and LRRC8B-E subunits. Channels of different subunit composition have distinct properties that explain the functional diversity of LRRC8 currents across cell types. However, the basis for heteromeric LRRC8 channel assembly and function is unknown. Here we leverage a fiducial-tagging strategy to determine single-particle cryo-EM structures of heterohexameric LRRC8A:C channels in multiple conformations. Compared to homomers, LRRC8A:C channels show pronounced differences in architecture due to heterotypic LRR interactions that displace subunits away from the conduction axis and poise the channel for activation. Structures and functional studies further reveal that lipids embedded in the channel pore block ion conduction in the closed state. These results provide insight into determinants for heteromeric LRRC8 channel assembly, activity and gating by lipids.

Imbalanced Inflammatory Responses in Preterm and Term Cord Blood Monocytes and Expansion of the CD14+CD16+ Subset upon Toll-like Receptor Stimulation.

Developmentally regulated features of innate immunity are thought to place preterm and term infants at risk of infection and inflammation-related morbidity. Underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Differences in monocyte function including toll-like receptor (TLR) expression and signaling have been discussed. Some studies point to generally impaired TLR signaling, others to differences in individual pathways. In the present study, we assessed mRNA and protein expression of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines in preterm and term cord blood (CB) monocytes compared with adult controls stimulated ex vivo with Pam3CSK4, zymosan, polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid, lipopolysaccharide, flagellin, and CpG oligonucleotide, which activate the TLR1/2, TLR2/6, TLR3, TLR4, TLR5, and TLR9 pathways, respectively. In parallel, frequencies of monocyte subsets, stimulus-driven TLR expression, and phosphorylation of TLR-associated signaling molecules were analyzed. Independent of stimulus, pro-inflammatory responses of term CB monocytes equaled adult controls. The same held true for preterm CB monocytes-except for lower IL-1ß levels. In contrast, CB monocytes released lower amounts of anti-inflammatory IL-10 and IL-1ra, resulting in higher ratios of pro-inflammatory to anti-inflammatory cytokines. Phosphorylation of p65, p38, and ERK1/2 correlated with adult controls. However, stimulated CB samples stood out with higher frequencies of intermediate monocytes (CD14+CD16+). Both pro-inflammatory net effect and expansion of the intermediate subset were most pronounced upon stimulation with Pam3CSK4 (TLR1/2), zymosan (TR2/6), and lipopolysaccharide (TLR4). Our data demonstrate robust pro-inflammatory and yet attenuated anti-inflammatory responses in preterm and term CB monocytes, along with imbalanced cytokine ratios. Intermediate monocytes, a subset ascribed pro-inflammatory features, might participate in this inflammatory state.

Reproducible variability: assessing investigator discordance across 9 research teams attempting to reproduce the same observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies can impact patient care but must be robust and reproducible. Nonreproducibility is primarily caused by unclear reporting of design choices and analytic procedures. This study aimed to: (1) assess how the study logic described in an observational study could be interpreted by independent researchers and (2) quantify the impact of interpretations' variability on patient characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine teams of highly qualified researchers reproduced a cohort from a study by Albogami et al. The teams were provided the clinical codes and access to the tools to create cohort definitions such that the only variable part was their logic choices. We executed teams' cohort definitions against the database and compared the number of subjects, patient overlap, and patient characteristics. RESULTS: On average, the teams' interpretations fully aligned with the master implementation in 4 out of 10 inclusion criteria with at least 4 deviations per team. Cohorts' size varied from one-third of the master cohort size to 10 times the cohort size (2159-63 619 subjects compared to 6196 subjects). Median agreement was 9.4% (interquartile range 15.3-16.2%). The teams' cohorts significantly differed from the master implementation by at least 2 baseline characteristics, and most of the teams differed by at least 5. CONCLUSIONS: Independent research teams attempting to reproduce the study based on its free-text description alone produce different implementations that vary in the population size and composition. Sharing analytical code supported by a common data model and open-source tools allows reproducing a study unambiguously thereby preserving initial design choices.

Androstadienone sensitivity is associated with attention to emotions, social interactions, and sexual behavior in older U.S. adults.

Δ 4,16-androstadien-3-one (androstadienone) is a putative human pheromone often linked to sexual attraction in young adults, although specific associations with sexual behavior are not yet established. Androstadienone also serves a broader social-emotional function beyond the sexual domain, specifically tuning the brain to efficiently process emotional information. Whether these effects persist throughout the lifespan into post-reproductive life is unknown. In a laboratory study of older adults, those with greater androstadienone odor sensitivity paid greater attention to subliminal emotional information, specifically, angry faces (p = 0.05), with a similar relationship to happy faces. In contrast, the physical odor n-butanol (a control) did not affect emotional attention (p = 0.49). We then extended this laboratory research and determined whether sensitivity to androstadienone affects the everyday lives of older adults by measuring their social and sexual behavior. In this second study, we surveyed in a nationally representative sample of US older adults living in their homes (National Social Life and Aging Project, 62-90 years; n = 2,086), along with their sensitivity to androstadienone, general olfactory function, health and demographics. Greater sensitivity to androstadienone was associated with richer social lives: having more friends, increased communication with close friends and family, and more participation in organized social events and volunteer activities (all p's ≤ 0.05, generalized linear models, adjusted for age and gender). It was also associated with more recent sexual activity, more frequent sexual thoughts, and viewing sex as an important part of life (all p's ≤ 0.05). General olfactory function did not explain these associations, supporting a specialized function for this pheromone during everyday life, and expanding its role to social life as well as sexual behavior, likely mediated by enhanced attention to emotional information.

Rates of Antipsychotic Drug Prescribing Among People Living With Dementia During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Concerns have been raised that the use of antipsychotic medication for people living with dementia might have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To examine multinational trends in antipsychotic drug prescribing for people living with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multinational network cohort study used electronic health records and claims data from 8 databases in 6 countries (France, Germany, Italy, South Korea, the UK, and the US) for individuals aged 65 years or older between January 1, 2016, and November 30, 2021. Two databases each were included for South Korea and the US. Exposures: The introduction of population-wide COVID-19 restrictions from April 2020 to the latest available date of each database. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were yearly and monthly incidence of dementia diagnosis and prevalence of people living with dementia who were prescribed antipsychotic drugs in each database. Interrupted time series analyses were used to quantify changes in prescribing rates before and after the introduction of population-wide COVID-19 restrictions. Results: A total of 857 238 people with dementia aged 65 years or older (58.0% female) were identified in 2016. Reductions in the incidence of dementia were observed in 7 databases in the early phase of the pandemic (April, May, and June 2020), with the most pronounced reduction observed in 1 of the 2 US databases (rate ratio [RR], 0.30; 95% CI, 0.27-0.32); reductions were also observed in the total number of people with dementia prescribed antipsychotic drugs in France, Italy, South Korea, the UK, and the US. Rates of antipsychotic drug prescribing for people with dementia increased in 6 databases representing all countries. Compared with the corresponding month in 2019, the most pronounced increase in 2020 was observed in May in South Korea (Kangwon National University database) (RR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.47-3.02) and June in the UK (RR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.24-3.09). The rates of antipsychotic drug prescribing in these 6 databases remained high in 2021. Interrupted time series analyses revealed immediate increases in the prescribing rate in Italy (RR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08-1.58) and in the US Medicare database (RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.71) after the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found converging evidence that the rate of antipsychotic drug prescribing to people with dementia increased in the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 6 countries studied and did not decrease to prepandemic levels after the acute phase of the pandemic had ended. These findings suggest that the pandemic disrupted the care of people living with dementia and that the development of intervention strategies is needed to ensure the quality of care.

Assessing Changes in Insurance Status and Access to Care Among Patients Attending Chicago Sexually Transmitted Infection Specialty Clinics From 2013 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Public sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics are safety net providers for uninsured and underinsured individuals but are at risk for closure due to declining budgets and shifting priorities. This study sought to assess changes in insurance status and access to preventive care among public STI clinic patients after immediate and long-term implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). METHODS: Patients receiving care in STI clinics administered by Chicago Department of Public Health were asked to complete an anonymous survey in 2013, 2014, and 2019. We estimated the prevalence rate ratio (PRR) of (1) being insured and (2) having access to preventive care over time, adjusted for age, race, and gender/sexual orientation, and employment status. RESULTS: Among 1711 respondents, compared with 2013 patients, patients were 1.41 (adjusted PRR [aPRR]) times more likely to report being insured in 2014 (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.77) and 1.24 (aPRR) times more likely to report being insured in 2019 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.55). After adjusting for other significant variables (age, sex and orientation, and insurance status), reported access to preventive care increased by 34% among respondents in 2019 as compared with 2013 (aPRR, 1.34). Unsurprisingly, being insured was associated with increased preventive care access (aPRR, 1.78). CONCLUSIONS: Even after the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, a survey of public STI clinic patients in Chicago found a sizeable proportion of individuals without insurance, and many lacked access to preventive care, highlighting the continued need for these safety net clinics to provide STI care.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of hypothesis evaluating real-world evidence studies on treatment effects: A good practices report of a joint ISPE/ISPOR task force.

PROBLEM: Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias. WHAT WE DID: The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The overarching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility. STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE: Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years. CONCLUSION: The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

Agent-based model projections for reducing HIV infection among MSM: Prevention and care pathways to end the HIV epidemic in Chicago, Illinois.

Our objective is to improve local decision-making for strategies to end the HIV epidemic using the newly developed Levers of HIV agent-based model (ABM). Agent-based models use computer simulations that incorporate heterogeneity in individual behaviors and interactions, allow emergence of systemic behaviors, and extrapolate into the future. The Levers of HIV model (LHM) uses Chicago neighborhood demographics, data on sex-risk behaviors and sexual networks, and data on the prevention and care cascades, to model local dynamics. It models the impact of changes in local preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) (ie, levers) for meeting Illinois' goal of "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) -reducing by 90% new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) by 2030. We simulate a 15-year period (2016-2030) for 2304 distinct scenarios based on 6 levers related to HIV treatment and prevention: (1) linkage to PrEP for those testing negative, (2) linkage to ART for those living with HIV, (3) adherence to PrEP, (4) viral suppression by means of ART, (5) PrEP retention, and (6) ART retention. Using tree-based methods, we identify the best scenarios at achieving a 90% HIV infection reduction by 2030. The optimal scenario consisted of the highest levels of ART retention and PrEP adherence, next to highest levels of PrEP retention, and moderate levels of PrEP linkage, achieved 90% reduction by 2030 in 58% of simulations. We used Bayesian posterior predictive distributions based on our simulated results to determine the likelihood of attaining 90% HIV infection reduction using the most recent Chicago Department of Public Health surveillance data and found that projections of the current rate of decline (2016-2019) would not achieve the 90% (p = 0.0006) reduction target for 2030. Our results suggest that increases are needed at all steps of the PrEP cascade, combined with increases in retention in HIV care, to approach 90% reduction in new HIV diagnoses by 2030. These findings show how simulation modeling with local data can guide policy makers to identify and invest in efficient care models to achieve long-term local goals of ending the HIV epidemic.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of Hypothesis Evaluating Real-World Evidence Studies on Treatment Effects: A Good Practices Report of a Joint ISPE/ISPOR Task Force.

OBJECTIVES: Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias. METHODS: The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The over-arching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility. STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE: Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years. CONCLUSION: The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

Structure of SARS-CoV-2 M protein in lipid nanodiscs.

SARS-CoV-2 encodes four structural proteins incorporated into virions, spike (S), envelope (E), nucleocapsid (N), and membrane (M). M plays an essential role in viral assembly by organizing other structural proteins through physical interactions and directing them to sites of viral budding. As the most abundant protein in the viral envelope and a target of patient antibodies, M is a compelling target for vaccines and therapeutics. Still, the structure of M and molecular basis for its role in virion formation are unknown. Here, we present the cryo-EM structure of SARS-CoV-2 M in lipid nanodiscs to 3.5 Å resolution. M forms a 50 kDa homodimer that is structurally related to the SARS-CoV-2 ORF3a viroporin, suggesting a shared ancestral origin. Structural comparisons reveal how intersubunit gaps create a small, enclosed pocket in M and large open cavity in ORF3a, consistent with a structural role and ion channel activity, respectively. M displays a strikingly electropositive cytosolic surface that may be important for interactions with N, S, and viral RNA. Molecular dynamics simulations show a high degree of structural rigidity in a simple lipid bilayer and support a role for M homodimers in scaffolding viral assembly. Together, these results provide insight into roles for M in coronavirus assembly and structure.