A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters.

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework as a continuation of our previous work. Subsequently, this framework is specifically tailored to the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model which describes a basic mechanism for the spread of infectious diseases through a system of coupled nonlinear differential equations. The SIR model consists of three states, namely, the susceptible, infectious, and removed compartments. The coupling among these states is controlled by two parameters, the infection rate and the recovery rate. The simplicity of the SIR model and similar compartmental models make them applicable to many classes of infectious diseases. However, the combined assumption of a deterministic model and time-invariance among the model parameters are two significant impediments which critically limit their use for long-term predictions. The tendency of certain model parameters to vary in time due to seasonal trends, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and other random effects necessitates a model that structurally permits the incorporation of such time-varying effects. Complementary to this, is the need for a robust mechanism for the estimation of the parameters of the resulting model from data. To this end, we consider an augmented state vector, which appends the time-varying parameters to the original system states whereby the time evolution of the time-varying parameters are driven by an artificial noise process in a standard manner. Distinguishing between time-varying and time-invariant parameters in this fashion limits the introduction of artificial dynamics into the system, and provides a robust, fully Bayesian approach for estimating the time-invariant system parameters as well as the elements of the process noise covariance matrix. This computational framework is implemented by leveraging the robustness of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm permits the estimation of time-invariant parameters while nested nonlinear filters concurrently perform the joint estimation of the system states and time-varying parameters. We demonstrate performance of the framework by first considering a series of examples using synthetic data, followed by an exposition on public health data collected in the province of Ontario.

Restrictive Spirometric Pattern and Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry in a Population 50-64 Years.

RATIONALE: Knowledge regarding prevalence and shared and unique characteristics of Restrictive spirometric pattern (RSP) and Preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) is lacking for a general population investigated with post-bronchodilator spirometry and computed tomography of the lungs. OBJECTIVES: To investigate shared and unique features for RSP and PRISm. METHODS: In the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS), a general population sample of 28,555 people aged 50 - 64 years (including 14,558 never-smokers) was assessed. The participants answered a questionnaire and underwent computed tomography of the lungs, post-bronchodilator spirometry, and coronary artery calcification score (CACS). Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using adjusted logistic regression. RSP was defined as FEV1/FVC≥0.70 and FVC<80%. PRISm was defined as FEV1/FVC≥0.70 and FEV1<80%. A local reference equation was applied. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The prevalence of RSP and PRISm were 5.1% (95% CI 4.9 - 5.4) and 5.1% (95% CI 4.8 - 5.3), respectively, with similar values seen in never-smokers. For RSP and PRISm, shared features were current smoking, dyspnea, chronic bronchitis, rheumatic disease, diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD), bronchial wall thickening, interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA), and bronchiectasis. Emphysema was uniquely linked to PRISm (OR 1.69, 1.36-2.10) vs 1.10 (0.84-1.43) for RSP. CACS≥300 was related to PRISm, but not among among never-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: PRISm and RSP have respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic conditions as shared features. Emphysema is only associated with PRISm. Coronary atherosclerosis may be associated with PRISm. Our results indicate that RSP and PRISm may share more features than not. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Evaluating the benefit of virtual surgical planning on bony union rates in head and neck reconstructive surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Virtual surgical planning (VSP) has gained acceptance because of its benefits in obtaining adequate resection, achieving cephalometric accuracy, and reducing operative time. The aim of this study is to compare the rate of union between VSP and free-hand surgery (FHS), identify predictors of non-union and evaluate the difference in operative time. METHODS: Post-operative CT were retrospectively reviewed for 123 patients who underwent maxillary or mandibular reconstruction between 2014 and 2021 using either VSP or FHS. Each apposition was graded as complete, partial or non-union. The rate of union, risk difference and inter-rater reliability were calculated. The difference in operative time was assessed. Predictors of non-union were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 326 appositions were graded (VSP n = 150; FHS n = 176). The rates of complete and partial union were higher with VSP than FHS (74.7% vs. 65.3%; 18% vs. 15.9%, respectively, p = 0.01). Non-union was found at a higher rate with FHS than with VSP (18.7% vs. 7.3%). The non-union risk difference was 11.4. FHS, major complications and apposition at the native bone were predictors of non-union (OR 2.9, p = 0.02; OR 3.4, p = 0.01; OR 2.5, p = 0.05, respectively). The mean surgical time was shorter with VSP than with FHS (265.3 vs. 381.5 min, p < 0.001). The inter-rater agreement was high (k = 0.85; ICC = 0.86). CONCLUSION: VSP demonstrated significantly higher bony union rates and shorter operative time. FHS, development of major complications and apposition with native bone correlated with non-union.

Learning analytics for enhanced professional capital development: a systematic review.

Background/Motivation: This article presents a systematic review aimed at examining the utilization of learning analytics (LA) to enhance teachers' professional capital. Aim: The study focuses on three primary research questions: (1) exploring the characteristics and approaches of LA in professional capital, (2) investigating suggestions from LA for assessing and improving professional capital, and (3) examining variables studied in enhancing the most intricate dimension of professional capital using LA. Methodology: To address the research objectives, a systematic review was conducted focusing on the key concepts "learning analytics" and "professional capital." Following the procedures outlined encompassed in four stages: identification, screening, inclusion, and adequacy. The PRISMA 2009 protocol guided the systematic review process. Principal findings: The findings of the study underscore the efficacy of LA as a catalyst for improving professional capital, particularly through collaborative learning and the utilization of tools like forums and online learning platforms. Social capital emerges as a pivotal component in integrating diverse types of professional capital, fostering opportunities for knowledge creation and social networking. Conclusion/Significance: In conclusion, the study highlights the paramount significance of addressing teachers' professional capital development through collaborative approaches and leveraging technology, particularly in primary education. The article concludes by emphasizing the imperative for more research and knowledge dissemination in this field, aiming to ensure equity in learning and address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Genome Characterisation of Invasive Haemophilus influenzae in Pregnancy: The Noticeable Placental Tissue Tropism Is Distributed across the Species Rather Than Linked with Capsulation or Particular Clones.

Pregnancy is associated with a 5-26 times increased risk of invasive Haemophilus influenzae infection and subsequent adverse pregnancy outcomes. Incidence rate and outcome are published in some regions, but the characterisation of bacterial isolates is limited. We performed comparative genomic analyses of isolates from 12 pregnancy-associated cases, cultured from maternal bacteraemia in pregnancy (nine), postpartum bacteraemia (one), neonatal bacteraemia (one), and placental tissue (one). In two bacteraemia cases, identical isolates were also cultured from cervical swabs. Eight cases occurred early in pregnancy (gestational week 7-26), and seven of them resulted in miscarriage or neonatal death. All bacterial genomes were devoid of capsule loci, and they were evenly distributed in the major phylogenetic group I of the species. The conspicuous tropism of H. influenzae for pregnancy and placental tissue is associated with the species rather than specific clonal subtypes.

Acylated ghrelin suppresses doxorubicin-induced testicular damage and improves sperm parameters in rats via activation of Nrf2 and mammalian target of rapamycin.

Background: Exogenous administration of acylated ghrelin (AG) afforded reproductive protective effect in several animal models but not in those treated with doxorubicin (DOX). This study evaluated the protective effect of AG against DOX-induced testicular damage and impairment in sperm parameters in rats and examined the potential mechanisms of action. Materials and Methods: Adult male rats were divided into five groups (n = 8/each) as control, control + AG (40 nmol/kg/day; subcutaneous), DOX (10 mg/kg/day 1; intraperitoneal [i.p.]), DOX + AG, and DOX + AG + brusatol (an Nrf2 inhibitor) (2 mg/kg/every 3 days; i.p.). The treatment regimen continued for 65 days. Results: AG prevented testicular damage and apoptosis; increased sperm count, motility, and viability; and reduced the number of abnormal sperms. It also increased their circulatory levels of AG, des-acylated ghrelin (DAG), and AG/DAG ratio and the testicular mRNA levels of ghrelin and growth hormone secretagogue receptor 1a Concomitantly, AG increased serum and testicular testosterone levels, reduced serum levels of the follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone, and upregulated the testicular protein levels of the steroidogenic acute regulatory protein and 3ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase in DOX-treated rats. In the testes of the control and DOX-treated rats, AG increased the phosphorylation of mammalian target of rapamycin and stimulated the levels of glutathione and superoxide dismutase, as well as the nuclear activation of Nrf2. All these effects were completely prevented by co-treatment with brusatol. Conclusion: AG replacement therapy could be a novel strategy to prevent reproductive toxicity in cancer patients.

Early T-Cell Precursor Leukemia: A High-Risk Subtype of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, Single Center Experience in Jordan.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Early T-cell precursor (ETP) acute lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma (ALL/LBL) is a newly recognized entity of T-lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma. The optimal therapeutic approaches to adult patients are poorly studied. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared the outcomes of adult's patents with ETP-ALL/LBL who received frontline chemotherapy regimens with other T-ALL/LBL immunophenotypic subtypes. Patients with ETP-ALL/LBL were identified based on CD1a (-), CD8 (-), CD5 (-) (dim), and positivity for 1 or more stem cell or myeloid antigens. RESULTS: Sixty-nine patients were included between the years 2010 and 2021 (19 ETP-T-ALL/LBL; 50 non ETP- T-cell ALL/LBL). The median age was 26 year (IQR: 21, 33). Fifty-six patients presented as ALL, while 16 with lymphoblastic lymphoma. Forty-seven patients achieved complete remission, and 43 were alive at last encounter. The complete remission rate in patients with ETP-ALL/LBL was lower than that of non-ETP-ALL/LBL patients (32% vs. 68%; P = .2), and the MRD at end of induction was significantly higher (26% vs. 6.2%, P < .001), and more likely to receive allo-SCT consolidation in CR1 (95% vs. 40%, P < .001). After a median follow-up of survivors of 48 months (range: 32-74 months), the median overall survival for patients with ETP-ALL/LBL was not reached versus 11.5 months for the non-ETP-ALL/LBL patients (P = .014)). Twenty-six patients receive allo-SCT in CR1. There was no significant difference in overall survival (79% vs. 70%; P = .49) between both transplant-cohorts in both groups. CONCLUSION: ETP-ALL/LBL represents a high-risk disease subtype of adult ALL. Novel treatment strategies are needed to improve treatment outcomes in this patient's population.

Endovascular aneurysm repair of aortocaval fistula presenting with lower limb edema: A case report.

Aortocaval fistula (ACF) due to a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm is an uncommon medical condition that can be fatal if not diagnosed. ACF has several atypical signs and symptoms, making it challenging to diagnose, and an early diagnosis notably improves outcomes. We report a case of a 64-year-old man presenting with a 1-day history of lower back pain, hypotension, and lower limb edema. Computed tomography angiography demonstrated an abdominal aortic aneurysm with ACF. An urgent endovascular aneurysm repair was successfully performed to treat the ACF in this patient. Eighteen months later, the patient had an intact stent, normalized renal function, and no edema.

Assessing disparities in medical students' knowledge and attitude about monkeypox: a cross-sectional study of 27 countries across three continents.

Background and aims: The recent monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO) underscores the importance of evaluating the knowledge and attitude of medical students toward emerging diseases, given their potential roles as healthcare professionals and sources of public information during outbreaks. This study aimed to assess medical students' knowledge and attitude about Mpox and to identify factors affecting their level of knowledge and attitude in low-income and high-income countries. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 11,919 medical students from 27 countries. A newly-developed validated questionnaire was used to collect data on knowledge (14 items), attitude (12 items), and baseline criteria. The relationship between a range of factors with knowledge and attitude was studied using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: 46% of the study participants were males; 10.7% were in their sixth year; 54.6% knew about smallpox; 84% received the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine; and 12.5% had training on Mpox. 55.3% had good knowledge of Mpox and 51.7% had a positive attitude towards it. Medical students in their third, fifth, or sixth year high- income countries who obtained information on Mpox from friends, research articles, social media and scientific websites were positive predictors for good knowledge. Conversely, being male or coming from high-income countries showed a negative relation with good knowledge about Mpox. Additionally, a positive attitude was directly influenced by residing in urban areas, being in the fifth year of medical education, having knowledge about smallpox and a history of receiving the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine. Receiving information about Mpox from social media or scientific websites and possessing good knowledge about Mpox were also predictors of a positive attitude. On the other hand, being male, employed, or receiving a training program about Mpox were inversely predicting positive attitude about Mpox. Conclusion: There were differences in knowledge and attitude towards Mpox between medical students in low and high-income countries, emphasizing the need for incorporating epidemiology of re-emerging diseases like Mpox into the medical curriculum to improve disease prevention and control.

Unveiling the Culprit: Candida-Induced Spondylodiscitis Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

We present a case of a 57-year-old male patient with a history of prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who developed fungal spondylodiscitis, a rare complication. The patient initially presented complaining of respiratory symptoms and was subsequently treated with tocilizumab, remdesivir, enoxaparin, and dexamethasone. Following ICU discharge, he experienced recurrent infections, including extended-spectrum beta-lactamase Klebsiella urinary tract infection. Two months later, he developed back pain; magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed inflammatory spondylodiscitis. Despite empirical antibiotic therapy, his condition did not improve, and a bone biopsy confirmed Candida albicans infection. Antifungal treatment with fluconazole and anidulafungin resulted in a significant clinical improvement. The patient achieved complete recovery after six months of therapy. This case highlights the rare occurrence of fungal spondylodiscitis in COVID-19 patients with a history of ICU stay and emphasizes the importance of early recognition and appropriate management to mitigate potential complications.

Corrigendum: Factors influencing participation in COVID-19 clinical trials: a multinational study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.608959.].

Learning analytics in support of inclusiveness and disabled students: a systematic review.

This article maps considerations of inclusiveness and support for students with disabilities by reviewing articles within the field of learning analytics. The study involved a PRISMA-informed systematic review of two popular digital libraries, namely Clarivate's Web of Science, and Elsevier's Scopus for peer-reviewed journal articles and conference proceedings. A final corpus of 26 articles was analysed. Findings show that although the field of learning analytics emerged in 2011, none of the studies identified here covered topics of inclusiveness in education before the year of 2016. Screening also shows that learning analytics provides great potential to promote inclusiveness in terms of reducing discrimination, increasing retention among disadvantaged students, and validating particular learning designs for marginalised groups. Gaps in this potential are also identified. The article aims to provide valuable insight into what is known about learning analytics and inclusiveness and contribute knowledge to this particular nascent area for researchers and institutional stakeholders.

Spontaneous activity of specific C-nociceptor subtypes from diabetic patients and mice: Involvement of reactive dicarbonyl compounds and (sensitized) transient receptor potential channel A1.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic metabolism causes changes of the chemical milieu including accumulation of reactive carbonyl species, for example, methylglyoxal (MGO). MGO activates chemosensitive TRPA1 on nociceptors, but the contribution to neuronal pathophysiology causing pain and hyperalgesia in diabetic neuropathy is not fully understood. METHODS: We employed single-nerve-fiber recordings in type 2 diabetes patients with (spDN) and without cutaneous pain (DN) and in streptozotocin-diabetic and healthy mice. In mice, we measured Ca++ transients in cultured DRG neurons and stimulated CGRP release from hairy skin. RESULTS: In diabetic patients, we recorded a large proportion of pathologically altered nerve C-fibers (79%). In spDN patients we found a higher percentage (72%) of spontaneously active C-nociceptors than in DN patients (15%). The proportion of spontaneous activity was highest among pathological fibers with mechanoinsensitive fiber properties which are particularly sensitive to MGO in contrast to mechanosensitive fibers. Mouse polymodal nociceptors, in contrast to purely mechanosensitive C-fibers, showed highest prevalence of TRPA1-related chemosensitivity. In diabetic mice about 37% of polymodal nociceptors developed spontaneous activity and exhibited significantly greater MGO responses, indicating sensitized TRPA1 receptors. Low-threshold mechanosensitive Aδ-fibers were vigorously activated by MGO but independently of TRPA1 activation. INTERPRETATION: Our translational findings suggest that TRPA1-expressing C-nociceptors, which in human correspond to mechanoinsensitive and in mice to polymodal nociceptors, are especially vulnerable to develop spontaneous activity. Those two different nociceptor classes might share the functional role as dicarbonyl-sensitive chemosensors and represent the critical nociceptor population that support the development of pain and hyperalgesia in diabetic neuropathy.

Resolute onyx stent more effective than wingspan stent at preventing procedural complications and long-term restenosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Angioplasty and stenting is a treatment option for patients with medically refractory symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic disease (sICAD). Currently the Wingspan Stent System (WSS) is the only FDA approved device for this indication. We find the Resolute (R) Onyx Stent, a drug-eluting balloon mounted stent (DES), a better alternative to the WSS for treatment of sICAD. Herein, we present our findings comparing the two stents based on our single center experience. METHODS: A prospectively maintained neuro-endovascular databased was queried for patients between January 2013 to June 2021. Inclusion criteria for patients included sICAD with failed medical management, and intracranial stenting with either R-Onyx DES or WSS, including patients treated within 7 days of their last stroke. Primary outcomes were assessed via the occurrence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke or death within 72 h of the procedure. Secondary outcomes consisted of recurrent stroke or significant in-stent restenosis evaluated by a clinical or angiographic follow-up at 6 months. RESULTS: A total of 184 patients, average age 61.26 (SD = 12.53) (44% women), were eligible for analysis with 58 having R-onyx DES and 126 having WSS. Within 72 h, the primary outcome was observed in 1.7% (n = 1) of patients in the R-onyx DES group and 6.3% (n = 8) of patients in the WSS group (p = 0.089). Among 41 angiographic and clinical follow-ups in the R-onyx DES group, none had a recurrent stroke, while among 101 patients who had follow-up in the WSS group, 8.9% (n = 9) had a stroke (p = 0.024). At a 6-month angiographic follow-up, there was a significantly lower rate of symptomatic in-stent restenosis among the R-onyx DES group with 1.7% (n = 1) compared with 21.4% (n = 27) in the WSS group (p = 0.0003). CONCLUSION: R-onyx DES is more effective than WSS in treating sICAD with low rates of periprocedural complications and long-term strokes and symptomatic in-stent restenosis. Future prospective randomized multicenter trials are needed.

Reduction in Door-to-Groin Puncture Time for Endovascular Treatment in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients With Large Vessel Occlusion.

Background The outcome of mechanical thrombectomy for large vessel occlusion (LVO) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is time-dependent. In the current stroke workflow, the pre-hospital delay is one of the most common reasons for an increase in door-to-groin puncture time (DGPT). In the present study, we sought to compare the difference in (DGPT) before and after the implementation of the Ventura Emergent Large Vessel Occlusion Score (VES) protocol for LVO. Methods VES was implemented in the Ventura County of California by Emergency Medical Services (EMS). We performed a retrospective analysis to compare DGPT of patients undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT) pre- and post-VES implementation. Mean and standard deviation was reported for the continuous variable 'time for intra-arterial (IA) treatment' in minutes. The Mann-Whitney test was used for the comparison of the variable between the two groups. analyses were performed using SAS v9.4 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC) with a significant p-value of ≤0.05. Results A total of 304 (males: 142 and females: 162) patients were alerted of the stroke code by the EMS. VES was positive in 139 patients. Of these, 64 (46%) were males and 75 (54%) were females. VES score of 1, 2, 3, and 4 were recorded in 57 (41%), 44 (31.6%), 31 (22.3%), and 7 (5%) patients, respectively. A total of 48 VES-positive patients underwent EVT. There were 62 patients who underwent EVT before the implementation of the VES protocol. The mean DGPT for the EVT among post-VES patients was 65 minutes, which was significantly (p=0.0009) shorter than the mean DGPT of 109 minutes among pre-VES patients. Conclusion VES is a simplified and effective tool for identifying LVO in the field. Implementation of VES showed significantly reduced DGPT in LVO patients.

Maximising access to timely trauma care across population of Karachi and its districts: a geospatial approach to develop a trauma care network.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and propose a cost-effective trauma care network for Karachi, Pakistan, by calculating maximum timely trauma care (TTC) coverage achieved with the addition of potential designated private and public level 1 and level 2 trauma centres (TCs). SETTING: A lower middle-income country metropolis, Karachi is Pakistan's largest city with a population of 16 million and a total of 56 hospitals as per government registry data. PARTICIPANTS: 41 potential TCs selected using a two-level, contextually-relevant TC designation criteria adapted from various international guidelines. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Maximum TTC coverage achievable with the addition of potential TCs. Proposed trauma care network composition to achieve maximum TTC coverage. RESULTS: Coverage with five public level 1 hospitals alone is 74.4%. Marginal benefit with stepwise addition of five potential private level 1 TCs, four public level 2 TCs and two private level 2 TCs is 12.2%, 7.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Maximum possible TTC coverage is 96.7%. Poorest coverage with the proposed 16 hospital network is noted in Malir district while 100% coverage is achieved in the centrally located South, Central and East districts. CONCLUSION: Addition of private level 1 and private and public level 2 hospitals to the trauma care network is necessary. Implementation of the proposed trauma care network requires strong stewardship from the government and coordinated effort of multiple stakeholders is needed to ensure standard TC designation. The study exhibits an effective method to scientifically plan and develop a cost-effective trauma system which can be applied in other resource-limited geographical areas.

What Does Twitter Say About Self-Regulated Learning? Mapping Tweets From 2011 to 2021.

Social network services such as Twitter are important venues that can be used as rich data sources to mine public opinions about various topics. In this study, we used Twitter to collect data on one of the most growing theories in education, namely Self-Regulated Learning (SRL) and carry out further analysis to investigate What Twitter says about SRL? This work uses three main analysis methods, descriptive, topic modeling, and geocoding analysis. The searched and collected dataset consists of a large volume of relevant SRL tweets equal to 54,070 tweets between 2011 and 2021. The descriptive analysis uncovers a growing discussion on SRL on Twitter from 2011 till 2018 and then markedly decreased till the collection day. For topic modeling, the text mining technique of Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) was applied and revealed insights on computationally processed topics. Finally, the geocoding analysis uncovers a diverse community from all over the world, yet a higher density representation of users from the Global North was identified. Further implications are discussed in the paper.

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approved by Carleton University's Research Ethics Board-B (clearance ID: 114596). Results will be made available through future publication.

Lumbar vertebral T2-relaxation time investigated with T2-mapping at multiple time points in a day demonstrate large individual variations.

PURPOSE The increasing interest of endplate and Modic changes as potential pain generators in low back pain (LBP), along with advancement of functional quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques, makes it important to characterize the vertebral dynamic behavior in detail. This study aims to perform characterization of the dynamic behavior of the vertebral bodies (VB) by investigating the VB diurnal variation in T2-relaxation time in a cross-sectional asymptomatic group of individuals. METHODS T2-mapping of 30 VBs (L1-L5) in six healthy volunteers (mean age, 40 years; range, 29-65 years) was performed with a 1.5 Tesla MRI at three time points over the day (7 am, 12 am, 5 pm). Volumetric regions of interest were segmented manually to determine VB T2-relaxation time, which was compared between the three time points. RESULTS On a group level only small and not significant diurnal VB variation was detected (all P >.10), with median T2 (ms) (quartiles; Q1, Q3) at the three time points 88.7 (84.1, 99.1), 87.3 (85.0, 96.1) and 87.8 (84.4, 99.2). However, in some VBs up to 7% increase respectively 9% decrease in T2-relaxation time was found during the day. Further, there was a relatively large variation between the individuals in absolute VB T2-relaxation times (range 73.2-108.3 ms), but small differences between the VBs within an individual. CONCLUSION This first T2-mapping study of the VB signal dynamics, in repeated investigations during one day, display variation in T2-relaxation time in specific individual VBs but were negligible on a group level. The result may be of importance when evaluating patients with spinal pathologies and suggest further examinations of dynamic changes not only of the disc but also vertebrae.

The serotype distribution of Streptococcus agalactiae (GBS) carriage isolates among pregnant women having risk factors for early-onset GBS disease: a comparative study with GBS causing invasive infections during the same period in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: We describe the serotype distribution of Streptococcus agalactiae (GBS) carriage isolates from women in labor and among GBS isolates causing invasive infections during the same period to see if the distribution of carriage serotypes reflects the GBS serotypes causing invasive diseases including early-onset disease (EOGBS). METHODS: Data on invasive isolates from 2019 including serotype, erythromycin and clindamycin susceptibility was retrieved from the Danish national reference laboratory, Statens Serum Institut. Carriage isolates were collected from women with risk factors for EOGBS enrolled at delivery at the maternity ward at a Danish University Hospital, first half of 2019. RESULTS: Among carriage isolates, the dominant serotype was IX (21 %) followed by serotype III (19 %). The resistance to erythromycin and clindamycin was 21 and 26 %, respectively. Among invasive GBS isolates, no case of EOGBS with serotype IX was detected but the distribution of serotypes were otherwise similar to the GBS carrier strains. The corresponding resistance to erythromycin and clindamycin was 23 and 15 %, respectively. Penicillin resistance was not detected among carriage nor invasive isolates. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of serotypes among carriage and invasive GBS reflects the assumption that EOGBS occur following transmission of GBS from mother to newborn, with the exception of serotype IX.