Global connections between El Nino and landslide impacts.

El Nino is a critical part of global inter-annual climate variability, and the intensity of El Nino has major implications for rainfall-induced natural hazards in many vulnerable countries. The impact of landslides triggered by rainfall is likely to be modulated by the strength of El Nino, but the nature of this connection and the places where it is most relevant remains unconstrained. Here we combine new satellite rainfall data with a global landslide exposure model to show that El Nino has far-reaching effects on landslide impacts to people and infrastructure. We find that the impact of El Nino on landslide exposure can be greater in parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America than that due to seasonal rainfall variability. These findings improve our understanding of hazard variability around the world and can assist disaster mitigation efforts on seasonal timescales.

Incorporation of Satellite Precipitation Uncertainty in a Landslide Hazard Nowcasting System.

Many existing models that predict landslide hazards utilize ground-based sources of precipitation data. In locations where ground-based precipitation observations are limited (i.e., a vast majority of the globe), or for landslide hazard models that assess regional or global domains, satellite multisensor precipitation products offer a promising near-real-time alternative to ground-based data. NASA's global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product to issue hazard "nowcasts" in near-real time for areas that are currently at risk for landsliding. Satellite-based precipitation estimates, however, can contain considerable systematic bias and random error, especially over mountainous terrain and during extreme rainfall events. This study combines a precipitation error modeling framework with a probabilistic adaptation of LHASA. Compared with the routine version of LHASA, this probabilistic version correctly predicts more of the observed landslides in the study region with fewer false alarms by high hazard nowcasts. This study demonstrates that improvements in landslide hazard prediction can be achieved regardless of whether the IMERG error model is trained using abundant ground-based precipitation observations or using far fewer and more scattered observations, suggesting that the approach is viable in data-limited regions. Results emphasize the importance of accounting for both random error and systematic satellite precipitation bias. The approach provides an example of how environmental prediction models can incorporate satellite precipitation uncertainty. Other applications such as flood and drought monitoring and forecasting could likely benefit from consideration of precipitation uncertainty.

Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall.

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional "grid-by-grid analysis," the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG's accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for "hybrid" data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.

Using citizen science to expand the global map of landslides: Introducing the Cooperative Open Online Landslide Repository (COOLR).

Robust inventories are vital for improving assessment of and response to deadly and costly landslide hazards. However, collecting landslide events in inventories is difficult at the global scale due to inconsistencies in or the absence of landslide reporting. Citizen science is a valuable opportunity for addressing some of these challenges. The new Cooperative Open Online Landslide Repository (COOLR) supplements data in a NASA-developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) with citizen science reports to build a more robust, publicly available global inventory. This manuscript introduces the COOLR project and its methods, evaluates the initial citizen science results from the first 13 months, and discusses future improvements to increase the global engagement with the project. The COOLR project (https://landslides.nasa.gov) contains Landslide Reporter, the first global citizen science project for landslides, and Landslide Viewer, a portal to visualize data from COOLR and other satellite and model products. From March 2018 to April 2019, 49 citizen scientists contributed 162 new landslide events to COOLR. These events spanned 37 countries in five continents. The initial results demonstrated that both expert and novice participants are contributing via Landslide Reporter. Citizen scientists are filling in data gaps through news sources in 11 different languages, in-person observations, and new landslide events occurring hundreds and thousands of kilometers away from any existing GLC data. The data is of sufficient accuracy to use in NASA susceptibility and hazard models. COOLR continues to expand as an open platform of landslide inventories with new data from citizen scientists, NASA scientists, and other landslide groups. Future work on the COOLR project will seek to increase participation and functionality of the platform as well as move towards collective post-disaster mapping.

Evaluating the uncertainty of terrestrial water budget components over High Mountain Asia.

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff(R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11±0.45, 1.26±0.11, and 0.85±0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Bayesian analysis of the impact of rainfall data product on simulated slope failure for North Carolina locations.

In the past decades, many different approaches have been developed in the literature to quantify the load-carrying capacity and geotechnical stability (or the Factor of Safety, F s) of variably saturated hillslopes. Much of this work has focused on a deterministic characterization of hillslope stability. Yet, simulated F s values are subject to considerable uncertainty due to our inability to characterize accurately the soil mantle's properties (hydraulic, geotechnical and geomorphologic) and spatiotemporal variability of the moisture content of the hillslope interior. This is particularly true at larger spatial scales. Thus, uncertainty-incorporating analyses of physically based models of rain-induced landslides are rare in the literature. Such landslide modeling is typically conducted at the hillslope scale using gauge-based rainfall forcing data with rather poor spatiotemporal coverage. For regional landslide modeling, the specific advantages and/or disadvantages of gauge-only, radar-merged and satellite-based rainfall products are not clearly established. Here, we compare and evaluate the performance of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) model for three different rainfall products using 112 observed landslides in the period between 2004 and 2011 from the North Carolina Geological Survey database. Our study includes the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis Version 7 (TMPA V7), the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) analysis, and the reference 'truth' Stage IV precipitation. TRIGRS model performance was rather inferior with the use of literature values of the geotechnical parameters and soil hydraulic properties from ROSETTA using soil textural and bulk density data from SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic database). The performance of TRIGRS improved considerably after Bayesian estimation of the parameters with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm using Stage IV precipitation data. Hereto, we use a likelihood function that combines binary slope failure information from landslide event and 'null' periods using multivariate frequency distribution-based metrics such as the False Discovery and False Omission Rates. Our results demonstrate that the Stage IV-inferred TRIGRS parameter distributions generalize well to TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation data, particularly at sites with considerably larger TMPA and NLDAS-2 rainfall amounts during landslide events than null periods. TRIGRS model performance is then rather similar for all three rainfall products. At higher elevations, however, the TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation volumes are insufficient and their performance with the Stage IV-derived parameter distributions indicate their inability to accurately characterize hillslope stability.

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards over High Mountain Asia.

Cascading hazard processes refer to a primary trigger such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or snow melt, followed by a chain or web of consequences that can cause subsequent hazards influenced by a complex array of preconditions and vulnerabilities. These interact in multiple ways and can have tremendous impacts on populations proximate to or downstream of these initial triggers. High Mountain Asia (HMA) is extremely vulnerable to cascading hazard processes given the tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic setting of the region, particularly as it relates to glacial lakes. Given the limitations of in situ surveys in steep and often inaccessible terrain, remote sensing data are a valuable resource for better understanding and quantifying these processes. The present work provides a survey of cascading hazard processes impacting HMA and how these can be characterized using remote sensing sources. We discuss how remote sensing products can be used to address these process chains, citing several examples of cascading hazard scenarios across HMA. This work also provides a perspective on the current gaps and challenges, community needs, and view forward towards improved characterization of evolving hazards and risk across HMA.

Satellite-based assessment of rainfall-triggered landslide hazard for situational awareness.

Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are used to identify rainfall conditions from the past seven days. When rainfall is considered to be extreme and susceptibility values are moderate to very high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate the times and places where landslides are more probable. When LHASA nowcasts were evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog, the probability of detection (POD) ranged from 8 to 60%, depending on the evaluation period, precipitation product used, and the size of the spatial and temporal window considered around each landslide point. Applications of the LHASA system are also discussed, including how LHASA is used to estimate long-term trends in potential landslide activity at a nearly global scale and how it can be used as a tool to support disaster risk assessment. LHASA is intended to provide situational awareness of landslide hazards in near real-time, providing a flexible, open source framework that can be adapted to other spatial and temporal scales based on data availability.

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's scientific achievements and societal contributions: reviewing four years of advanced rain and snow observations.

Precipitation represents a life-critical energy and hydrologic exchange between the Earth's atmosphere and its surface. As such, knowledge of where, when, and how much rain and snow falls is essential for scientific research and societal applications. Building on the 17-year success of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory (GPM-CO) is the first U.S. National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) satellite mission specifically designed with sensors to observe the structure and intensities of both rain and falling snow. The GPM-CO has proved to be a worthy successor to TRMM, extending and improving high-quality active and passive microwave observations across all times of day. The GPM-CO launched in early 2014, is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with sensors that include the NASA-provided GPM Microwave Imager and the JAXA-provided Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar. These sensors were devised with high accuracy standards enabling them to be used as a reference for inter-calibrating a constellation of partner satellite data. These intercalibrated partner satellite retrievals are used with infrared data to produce merged precipitation estimates at temporal scales of 30 minutes and spatial scales of 0.1° × 0.1°. Precipitation estimates from the GPM-CO and partner constellation satellites, provided in near real time and later reprocessed with all ancillary data, are an indispensable source of precipitation data for operational and scientific users. Advances have been made using GPM data, primarily in improving sensor calibration, retrieval algorithms, and ground validation measurements, and used to further our understanding of the characteristics of liquid and frozen precipitation and the science of water and hydrological cycles for climate/weather forecasting. These advances have extended to societal benefits related to water resources, operational numerical weather prediction, hurricane monitoring, prediction, and disaster response, extremes, and disease.

So, how much of the Earth's surface is covered by rain gauges?

The measurement of global precipitation, both rainfall and snowfall, is critical to a wide range of users and applications. Rain gauges are indispensable in the measurement of precipitation, remaining the de facto standard for precipitation information across the Earth's surface for hydro-meteorological purposes. However, their distribution across the globe is limited: over land their distribution and density is variable, while over oceans very few gauges exist and where measurements are made, they may not adequately reflect the rainfall amounts of the broader area. Critically, the number of gauges available, or appropriate for a particular study, varies greatly across the Earth due to temporal sampling resolutions, periods of operation, data latency and data access. Numbers of gauges range from a few thousand available in near real time, to about a hundred thousand for all 'official' gauges, and to possibly hundreds of thousands if all possible gauges are included. Gauges routinely used in the generation of global precipitation products cover an equivalent area of between about 250 m2 and 3,000 m2. For comparison, the center circle of a soccer pitch or tennis court is about 260 m2. Although each gauge should represent more than just the gauge orifice, auto-correlation distances of precipitation vary greatly with regime and the integration period. Assuming each Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) -available gauge is independent and represents a surrounding area of 5 km radius, this represents only about 1% of the Earth's surface. The situation is further confounded for snowfall which has a greater measurement uncertainty.

THE GLOBAL PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT (GPM) MISSION FOR SCIENCE AND SOCIETY.

The GPM mission collects essential rain and snow data for scientific studies and societal benefit.

Satellite Precipitation Characterization, Error Modeling, and Error Correction Using Censored Shifted Gamma Distributions.

Satellite multisensor precipitation products (SMPPs) have a variety of potential uses, but suffer from relatively poor accuracy due to systematic biases and random errors in precipitation occurrence and magnitude. We use the Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) to characterize the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), a commonly-used SMPP, and to compare it against the rain gage-based North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) reference precipitation dataset across the conterminous United States. The CSGD describes both the occurrence and the magnitude of precipitation. Climatological CSGD characterization reveals significant regional differences between TMPA and NLDAS-2 in terms of magnitude and probability of occurrence. We also use a flexible CSGD-based error modeling framework to quantify errors in TMPA relative to NLDAS-2. The framework can model conditional bias as either a linear or nonlinear function of satellite precipitation rate and can produce a "conditional CSGD" of describing the distribution of "true" precipitation based on a satellite observation. The framework is also used to "merge" TMPA with atmospheric variables from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) to reduce SMPP errors. Despite the coarse resolution of MERRA-2, this merging offers robust reductions in random error due to the better performance of numerical models in resolving stratiform precipitation. Improvements in the near-realtime version of TMPA are relatively greater than for the higher-latency research version.

A heuristic approach to global landslide susceptibility mapping.

Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.