Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024.

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Omicron Variant-Specific Serological Imprinting Following BA.1 or BA.4/5 Bivalent Vaccination and Previous SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Continuous evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outpaces monovalent vaccine cross-protection to new viral variants. Consequently, bivalent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines including Omicron antigens were developed. The contrasting immunogenicity of the bivalent vaccines and the impact of prior antigenic exposure on new immune imprinting remains to be clarified. METHODS: In the large prospective ENFORCE cohort, we quantified spike-specific antibodies to 5 Omicron variants (BA.1 to BA.5) before and after BA.1 or BA.4/5 bivalent booster vaccination to compare Omicron variant-specific antibody inductions. We evaluated the impact of previous infection and characterized the dominant antibody responses. RESULTS: Prior to the bivalent fourth vaccine, all participants (N = 1697) had high levels of Omicron-specific antibodies. Antibody levels were significantly higher in individuals with a previous polymerase chain reaction positive (PCR+) infection, particularly for BA.2-specific antibodies (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 6.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.05-7.62). Antibody levels were further significantly boosted in all individuals by receiving either of the bivalent vaccines, but greater fold inductions to all Omicron variants were observed in individuals with no prior infection. The BA.1 bivalent vaccine generated a dominant response toward BA.1 (adjusted GMR 1.31, 95% CI 1.09-1.57) and BA.3 (1.32, 1.09-1.59) antigens in individuals with no prior infection, whereas the BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine generated a dominant response toward BA.2 (0.87, 0.76-0.98), BA.4 (0.85, 0.75-0.97), and BA.5 (0.87, 0.76-0.99) antigens in individuals with a prior infection. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination and previous infection leave a clear serological imprint that is focused on the variant-specific antigen. Importantly, both bivalent vaccines induce high levels of Omicron variant-specific antibodies, suggesting broad cross-protection of Omicron variants.

COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.ResultsThere was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10-20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.ConclusionOur analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.

Excess all-cause mortality in the USA and Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 and 2021.

Both the USA and Europe experienced substantial excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods used to estimate excess mortality vary, making comparisons difficult. This retrospective observational study included data on deaths from all causes occurring in the USA and 25 European countries or subnational areas participating in the network for European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO). We applied the EuroMOMO algorithm to estimate excess all-cause mortality in the USA and Europe during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2021, and compared excess mortality by age group and time periods reflecting three primary waves. During 2020-2021, the USA experienced 154.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 154.2-154.9) cumulative age-standardized excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person years, compared with 110.4 (95% UI: 109.9-111.0) for the European countries. Excess all-cause mortality in the USA was higher than in Europe for nearly all age groups, with an additional 44.1 excess deaths per 100,000 person years overall from 2020-2021. If the USA had experienced an excess mortality rate similar to Europe, there would have been approximately 391 thousand (36%) fewer excess deaths in the USA.

Introduction and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, Alpha variant, in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: In early 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 (Alpha variant) became dominant across large parts of the world. In Denmark, comprehensive and real-time test, contact-tracing, and sequencing efforts were applied to sustain epidemic control. Here, we use these data to investigate the transmissibility, introduction, and onward transmission of B.1.1.7 in Denmark. METHODS: We analyzed a comprehensive set of 60,178 SARS-CoV-2 genomes generated from high-throughput sequencing by the Danish COVID-19 Genome Consortium, representing 34% of all positive cases in the period 14 November 2020 to 7 February 2021. We calculated the transmissibility of B.1.1.7 relative to other lineages using Poisson regression. Including all 1976 high-quality B.1.1.7 genomes collected in the study period, we constructed a time-scaled phylogeny, which was coupled with detailed travel history and register data to outline the introduction and onward transmission of B.1.1.7 in Denmark. RESULTS: In a period with unchanged restrictions, we estimated an increased B.1.1.7 transmissibility of 58% (95% CI: [56%, 60%]) relative to other lineages. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses revealed that 37% of B.1.1.7 cases were related to the initial introduction in November 2020. The relative number of cases directly linked to introductions varied between 10 and 50% throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings corroborate early estimates of increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7. Both substantial early expansion when B.1.1.7 was still unmonitored and continuous foreign introductions contributed considerably to case numbers. Finally, our study highlights the benefit of balanced travel restrictions and self-isolation procedures coupled with comprehensive surveillance efforts, to sustain epidemic control in the face of emerging variants.

A late sharp increase in influenza detections and low interim vaccine effectiveness against the circulating A(H3N2) strain, Denmark, 2021/22 influenza season up to 25 March 2022.

We estimated interim influenza A vaccine effectiveness (VE) following a late sharp rise in cases during an influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2021/22 season, after lifting COVID-19 restrictions. In children aged 2-6 years offered a live attenuated influenza vaccine, adjusted VE was 62.7% (95% CI: 10.9-84.4) in hospitalised and 64.2% (95% CI: 50.5-74.1) in non-hospitalised children. In non-hospitalised patients aged 7-44 years, VE was 24.8% (95% CI: 12.8-35.2); VE was non-significant in remaining age groups and hospital/non-hospital settings.

All-cause versus cause-specific excess deaths for estimating influenza-associated mortality in Denmark, Spain, and the United States.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza-associated excess mortality estimates can be timely and provide useful information on the severity of an epidemic. This methodology can be leveraged during an emergency response or pandemic. METHOD: For Denmark, Spain, and the United States, we estimated age-stratified excess mortality for (i) all-cause, (ii) respiratory and circulatory, (iii) circulatory, (iv) respiratory, and (v) pneumonia, and influenza causes of death for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons. We quantified differences between the countries and seasonal excess mortality estimates and the death categories. We used a time-series linear regression model accounting for time and seasonal trends using mortality data from 2010 through 2017. RESULTS: The respective periods of weekly excess mortality for all-cause and cause-specific deaths were similar in their chronological patterns. Seasonal all-cause excess mortality rates for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons were 4.7 (3.3-6.1) and 14.3 (13.0-15.6) per 100,000 population, for the United States; 20.3 (15.8-25.0) and 24.0 (19.3-28.7) per 100,000 population for Denmark; and 22.9 (18.9-26.9) and 52.9 (49.1-56.8) per 100,000 population for Spain. Seasonal respiratory and circulatory excess mortality estimates were two to three times lower than the all-cause estimates. DISCUSSION: We observed fewer influenza-associated deaths when we examined cause-specific death categories compared with all-cause deaths and observed the same trends in peaks in deaths with all death causes. Because all-cause deaths are more available, these models can be used to monitor virus activity in near real time. This approach may contribute to the development of timely mortality monitoring systems during public health emergencies.

Reassortant Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in Elderly Woman, Denmark, January 2021.

A case of human infection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus containing a nonstructural gene highly similar to Eurasian avian-like H1Nx swine influenza virus was detected in Denmark in January 2021. We describe the clinical case and report testing results of the genetic and antigenic characterizations of the virus.

Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe - preliminary pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network, March to April 2020.

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.

How are children who are delayed in the Childhood Vaccination Programme vaccinated: A nationwide register-based cohort study of Danish children aged 15-24 months and semi-structured interviews with vaccination providers.

Aims: Delay of childhood vaccinations is common and influences efforts to reduce targeted diseases. In Denmark, the diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) vaccine is recommended at ages 3, 5 and 12 months and the first measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR-1) at 15 months. Following guidelines, children delayed at age 15 months should receive MMR-1 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 simultaneously, unless DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 was received less than 6 months ago, when MMR-1 alone is recommended. We studied compliance with these guidelines and the reasons for non-compliance with a focus on vaccination providers. Methods: We used a nationwide register-based cohort study of children born in Denmark between January 2000 and June 2013, who were lacking MMR-1 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 at age 15 months and were followed to 24 months. We also performed semi-structured telephone interviews with vaccination providers. Results: The study consisted of 156,921 children (18% of the children born in the period). Among the 40,060 children who had received DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 less than 6 months ago, 37,892 (95%) received MMR-1 alone. Among the 88,469 children who had received DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 more than 6 months ago, 6334 (7%) received DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 and MMR-1 simultaneously. The interviews indicated that some vaccination providers are reluctant to give multiple vaccinations at the same visit and some have a preference of following the usual sequence in the programme. Conclusions: Vaccination providers generally complied with the recommended minimum 6 months' interval between DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3. Conversely, there was a low compliance with the recommendation to administer DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 and MMR-1 simultaneously. More efforts are needed to ensure timely vaccination.

Incidence and seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus hospitalisations in young children in Denmark, 2010 to 2015.

For future decisions on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-vaccination strategies and implementation into national immunisation-programmes, we used national registry data (hospitalisation, microbiology and vital statistics) to determine the age-specific incidence and direct medical costs of annual RSV-associated admissions in children < 5 years-old for the period of 2010-2015. We identified ca 2,500 RSV-associated hospitalisations annually amounting to total direct medical-costs of ca EUR 4.1 million per year. The incidence of RSV-associated hospitalisations peaked in infants 1-2 months of age followed by infants 2-3 months of age, and infants < 1 month of age, respectively. Infant boys were at higher risk of severe RSV infection as compared to infant girls: male-to-female ratio peaked with 1.4 at four months of age and gradually levelled out with increasing age to 1.0 at 4 years of age. Five RSV-associated deaths were identified. Our findings demonstrate that in a western country as Denmark, RSV constitutes a considerable burden on childhood health. Furthermore, the best approach to reduce the high incidence of RSV-associated hospitalisations in young infants < 3 months of age may be maternal vaccination due to general challenges in achieving sufficient and protective immune responses in young infants.

Changes in genetically drifted H3N2 influenza A viruses and vaccine effectiveness in adults 65 years and older during the 2016/17 season in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: In Denmark, influenza A virus of the subtype H3N2 has been dominating the 2016/17 season, as in most countries of the Northern Hemisphere. OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted as part of the Danish seasonal influenza surveillance programme to genetically characterize circulating H3N2 viruses and determine the seasonal vaccine effectiveness (VE) overall in the Danish population and further on the virus cluster level. STUDY DESIGN: Influenza virus positive samples submitted for the national surveillance programme were genetically characterized by sequencing. VE estimates against influenza A and the circulating virus clusters were determined in patients above 65 years using the test-negative case-control design. RESULTS: The genetic characterization revealed several genetically drifted viruses, which could be divided into four main clusters by the defining amino acid substitutions: 3C.2a/N121K/S144K, 3C.2a/T131K/R142K, 3C.2a1, and 3C.2a1/N121K. Some of the drifted viruses appeared to be more prominent in vaccinated or non-vaccinated individuals, respectively. Overall the adjusted VE was 7.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): -6.0-19.2) among inpatients and 19.3% (95% CI: -5.7-38.4) among outpatients, respectively. VE for the four main virus clusters was; cluster 3C.2a1: 38.8% (95% CI: -29.8-71.1), cluster 3C.2a/N121K/S144K: 9.2% (95% CI: -63.0-49.4), cluster 3C.2a/T131K/R142K: 19.0% (95% CI: -85.3-64.6), and cluster 3C.2a1/N121K: -12.2% (95%CI: -129.7-45.2). CONCLUSIONS: Several genetically drifted H3N2 viruses have been circulating in Denmark in the 2016-17 influenza season. An overall low VE was estimated and VE for the four main virus cluster indicate different VEs between the circulating drifted H3N2 viruses.

Excess all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in Europe, December 2016 to February 2017.

Since December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3N2) season in 2014/15 in Europe, although starting earlier in line with the early influenza season start.

Simultaneous vaccination with MMR and DTaP-IPV-Hib and rate of hospital admissions with any infections: A nationwide register based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Denmark, live measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) is associated with a reduced risk of infectious disease admissions, particularly for lower respiratory tract infections. In low-income countries, simultaneous vaccination (i.e. vaccination at the same visit) with live and inactivated vaccines may increase child mortality compared with the live vaccine alone. We examined the hypothesis that simultaneous administration of MMR and the inactivated DTaP-IPV-Hib vaccine compared with MMR alone is associated with higher incidence of infectious disease admissions. METHODS: Nationwide, retrospective, register based cohort study of 520,859 children born in Denmark 1997-2006, who were followed from 15months to 4years of age. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of hospital admissions were estimated by Cox regression and adjusted for background factors including exact age. RESULTS: By 2years of age, 4965 children had simultaneous MMR and DTaP-IPV-Hib as their most recent vaccination. Compared with MMR alone, simultaneous administration was associated with a higher rate of lower respiratory tract infections (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-1.42). There was no effect on other infections. Overall, simultaneous administration was associated with a 7% (95% CI, 0-15%) increase in infectious disease admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous administration of MMR and DTaP-IPV-Hib compared with MMR alone may increase the rate of hospital admissions related to lower respiratory tract infections. These findings require replication in other high-income settings.

Oral Polio Vaccination and Hospital Admissions With Non-Polio Infections in Denmark: Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background. Live vaccines may have nonspecific beneficial effects on morbidity and mortality. This study examines whether children who had the live-attenuated oral polio vaccine (OPV) as the most recent vaccine had a different rate of admissions for infectious diseases than children with inactivated diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-polio-Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine (DTaP-IPV-Hib) or live measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR) as their most recent vaccine. Methods. A nationwide, register-based, retrospective cohort study of 137 403 Danish children born 1997-1999, who had received 3 doses of DTaP-IPV-Hib, were observed from 24 months (first OPV dose) to 36 months of age. Results. Oral polio vaccine was associated with a lower rate of admissions with any type of non-polio infection compared with DTaP-IPV-Hib as most recent vaccine (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], .77-.95). The association was separately significant for admissions with lower respiratory infections (adjusted IRR, 0.73; 95% CI, .61-.87). The admission rates did not differ for OPV versus MMR. Conclusions. Like MMR, OPV was associated with fewer admissions for lower respiratory infections than having DTaP-IPV-Hib as the most recent vaccination. Because OPV is now being phased-out globally, further studies of the potential beneficial nonspecific effects of OPV are warranted.

Live vaccine against measles, mumps, and rubella and the risk of hospital admissions for nontargeted infections.

IMPORTANCE: In low-income countries, live measles vaccine reduces mortality from causes other than measles infection. Such nonspecific effects of vaccines might also be important for the health of children in high-income settings. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the live vaccine against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) is associated with lower rates of hospital admissions for infections among children in Denmark. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based cohort study of Danish children born 1997-2006 and followed up from ages 11 months to 2 years (last follow-up, August 31, 2008). Nationwide Danish registers provided data on vaccinations and hospital admissions. The recommended vaccination schedule was inactivated vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, and Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) administered at ages 3, 5, and 12 months and MMR at age 15 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of hospital admissions for any infection, comparing receipt of MMR vs DTaP-IPV-Hib as the most recent vaccine. Risks, risk difference, and number needed to vaccinate were calculated for receiving MMR on time. RESULTS: The study included 495,987 children contributing with 56,889 hospital admissions for any type of infection during 509,427 person-years (rate, 11.2 per 100 person-years). For the 456,043 children who followed the recommended schedule and received MMR after the third dose of DTaP-IPV-Hib, MMR (rate, 8.9 per 100 person-years) vs the third dose of DTaP-IPV-Hib (rate, 12.4 per 100 person-years) as the most recent vaccine was associated with an adjusted IRR of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.84-0.88) for any admission for infection. There were 19,219 children immunized out of sequence. The adjusted IRR was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.80-0.95) for those receiving MMR (rate, 9.9 per 100 person-years) after the second dose of DTaP-IPV-Hib (rate, 15.1 per 100 person-years). However, in the 1981 children who subsequently received the third dose of DTaP-IPV-Hib (rate, 12.8 per 100 person-years) after MMR, the IRR for hospital admissions for infection was significantly greater (adjusted IRR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.28-2.05]). The risk of admission for an infection between ages 16 months and 24 months was 4.6% (95% CI, 4.5%-4.7%) for receiving MMR on time and 5.1% (95% CI, 5.0%-5.2%) for not receiving MMR on time. The risk difference was 0.5 percentage point (95% CI, 0.4-0.6), and the number needed to vaccinate with MMR before age 16 months to prevent 1 admission for any infection was 201 (95% CI, 159-272). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a cohort of Danish children, receipt of live MMR vs inactivated DTaP-IPV-Hib as the most recent vaccine was associated with a lower rate of hospital admissions for any infections. These findings require replication in other high-income populations.

Pneumococcal disease seasonality: incidence, severity and the role of influenza activity.

We tested whether the effect of influenza activity on invasive pneumococcal disease incidence and severity varies between age and comorbidity groups. Weekly rates of invasive pneumococcal disease were obtained from the Danish National Laboratory Surveillance System (1977-2007). Influenza-like illness data were collected from a sentinel surveillance system at the Statens Serum Institut (Copenhagen, Denmark). We fitted Poisson regression models for invasive pneumococcal disease, with predictors of seasonality, trends and influenza activity, and allowed the influenza activity variable to vary by comorbidity level and clinical presentation. Influenza activity accounted for 8.4% (95% CI 4.8-11.9%) and 6.9% (95% CI 5.4-10.2%) of all invasive pneumococcal disease cases among those aged 15-39 and ≥40 years, respectively, but had no measurable impact among children aged <15 years. Influenza activity was associated with significant increases in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal pneumonia in both children and adults. The association was more pronounced among younger adults without comorbidities. Case fatality also varied seasonally among the elderly, and this variation might be associated with influenza activity. Pneumococcal incidence and the severity of disease varied seasonally and between age groups. The effect of influenza activity on pneumococcal disease varied between children and adults, and this difference was largely due to differences in disease presentation.

Serotype-specific effect of influenza on adult invasive pneumococcal pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Influenza affects host susceptibility to pneumococcus. We sought to evaluate whether this relationship varies by pneumococcal serotype using a large epidemiological database covering 3 decades. METHODS: Weekly rates of invasive pneumococcal pneumonia (IPP) were obtained from the Danish National Laboratory Surveillance System, and influenza-like illness (ILI) data were collected from Danish sentinel surveillance, Statens Serum Institut, 1977-2007. We fit Poisson regression models for each age and comorbidity group, with predictors for seasonality and secular changes, ILI activity, and serotype. RESULTS: Among individuals with low levels of comorbidities, influenza had the largest impact on IPP incidence among low-invasiveness serotypes (influenza attributable percent: 17.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.6-21.9) as compared with high-invasiveness serotypes (6.7%, 95% CI, 3.8%-11.7%). Among those with higher levels of comorbidities, the effect of influenza was smaller, but high-invasiveness serotypes increased more than low-invasiveness serotypes (8.9% [95% CI, 6.6-11.8] vs. 1.3% [95% CI, -1.6-5.4]. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza was associated with the greatest increases in the incidence of disease caused by serotypes with lower invasive potential and among individuals with low levels of comorbid conditions. The importance of influenza for adult IPP varies by serotype and host comorbidity.