Implications of methodologies for integrating empirical kinships into ex situ population management using PMx: A case study of Baer's Pochard (Aythya baeri) in North America.

The application of molecular tools to population management can improve the long-term genetic viability of ex situ populations. In this study, we aimed to understand the implications of integrating empirical kinships into the genetic management of an ex situ population of the endangered waterfowl, Baer's pochard (Aythya baeri), in North America. Single nucleotide polymorphism data were generated for 141 Baer's pochard using double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing and empirical kinships were derived and integrated into the population management software PMx. Analyses suggested 37.7% of pairwise relationships previously assumed to be unrelated were first, second, or third-order relatives. We determined that most genetic summary statistics were impacted through the calculation of the population's mean kinship, which increased from MK¯=0.0772 to MK¯=0.2074 after empirical kinships were integrated into our analyses. Our results also revealed the importance of understanding how molecular kinships derived from a particular estimator are scaled, if the scale differs significantly from pedigree-based kinships. We describe the theory behind the genetic metrics impacted and provide general guidance on incorporating empirical kinships into ex situ population management as well as provide suggestions for sampling strategies to minimize the biases inherent in merging two types of kinship estimators.

Projecting the impact of an ebola virus outbreak on endangered mountain gorillas.

Ebola virus is highly lethal for great apes. Estimated mortality rates up to 98% have reduced the global gorilla population by approximately one-third. As mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) are endangered, with just over 1000 individuals remaining in the world, an outbreak could decimate the population. Simulation modeling was used to evaluate the potential impact of an Ebola virus outbreak on the mountain gorilla population of the Virunga Massif. Findings indicate that estimated contact rates among gorilla groups are high enough to allow rapid spread of Ebola, with less than 20% of the population projected to survive at 100 days post-infection of just one gorilla. Despite increasing survival with vaccination, no modeled vaccination strategy prevented widespread infection. However, the model projected that survival rates greater than 50% could be achieved by vaccinating at least half the habituated gorillas within 3 weeks of the first infectious individual.

Genetic diversity goals and targets have improved, but remain insufficient for clear implementation of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Genetic diversity among and within populations of all species is necessary for people and nature to survive and thrive in a changing world. Over the past three years, commitments for conserving genetic diversity have become more ambitious and specific under the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) draft post-2020 global biodiversity framework (GBF). This Perspective article comments on how goals and targets of the GBF have evolved, the improvements that are still needed, lessons learned from this process, and connections between goals and targets and the actions and reporting that will be needed to maintain, protect, manage and monitor genetic diversity. It is possible and necessary that the GBF strives to maintain genetic diversity within and among populations of all species, to restore genetic connectivity, and to develop national genetic conservation strategies, and to report on these using proposed, feasible indicators.

Strategies for establishing and using genome resource banks to protect genetic diversity in conservation breeding programs.

Genome resource banks (GRBs) have the potential to preserve the genetic diversity of a species over time, yet they are rarely utilized as effective components of conservation breeding programs. Advances have been made in reproductive biology, collection and storage techniques, and use of stored gametes for achieving successful reproduction, but there are few guidelines for integrating GRBs into established breeding programs. Here we present basic guidelines, focusing on strategies for the collection, maintenance, and use of semen GRBs for protecting genetic diversity. These guidelines should be applied in the context of the specific purposes and roles of a breeding program's GRB, which will differ among species depending on vulnerability to loss and the status of rescue and conservation efforts. We recommend establishing up to three types of collections: (1) a National Reserve to preserve a species' genetic diversity, to be used only as a last resort; (2) a Savings Account to be used periodically to invigorate a genetically depauperate population; and (3) a Checking Account to be used as a regular part of the breeding program. We present methods for identifying donors to maximize genetic diversity in a GRB, as well as strategies for maintaining and optimally using GRBs.

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world.

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3-8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.

La mortalidad de la fauna causada por humanos es una amenaza continua para la biodiversidad. El análisis del impacto a nivel poblacional de la captura pesquera incidental y otras causas humanas de la mortalidad de la fauna comúnmente ha dependido de métodos determinísticos. Sin embargo, las declinaciones poblacionales con frecuencia se aceleran por los factores estocásticos que no son considerados en dichos métodos convencionales. A partir de la ecuación de extirpación biológica potencial (EBP) de extensa aplicación diseñamos una nueva estrategia de modelación poblacional para estimar los límites sustentables de la mortalidad causada por humanos y la aplicamos en un estudio de caso de los delfines nariz de botella afectados por la captura en una pesquería australiana de arrastre demersal. Nuestra estrategia, denominada mortalidad antropogénica sustentable en ambientes estocásticos (MASAM) incorpora la estocasticidad ambiental y demográfica, incluyendo la dependencia que tienen las crías por sus madres. El límite MASAM es el número máximo de individuos que pueden extirparse sin causar un crecimiento poblacional estocástico negativo. Calculamos un EBP de 16.3 delfines por año con base en la mejor estimación de abundancia disponible. Como contraste, el modelo MASAM indicó que sólo podían extirparse entre 2.3 y 8.0 delfines anualmente sin ocasionar una declinación poblacional en un ambiente estocástico. Estos resultados sugieren que las tasas reportadas de captura incidental no son sustentables a largo plazo, a menos que las tasas reproductivas sean sistemáticamente más altas que el promedio. La diferencia entre el cálculo determinístico del EBP y los límites de MASAM mostró que los enfoques determinísticos pueden subestimar el verdadero impacto de la mortalidad de la fauna causada por humanos. Lo anterior resalta la importancia de integrar la estocasticidad al evaluar el impacto de la captura incidental y otras causas humanas de la mortalidad como la caza, las medidas letales de control y las colisiones con turbinas de viento. Aunque el análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) se ha utilizado para evaluar el impacto de la mortalidad causada por humanos, MASAM representa un marco novedoso de AVP que incorpora la estocasticidad para estimar los niveles aceptables de mortalidad causada por humanos. Este enfoque ofrece una adición estocástica de aplicación generalizada para las herramientas demográficas usadas para evaluar el impacto de la mortalidad causada por humanos sobre la fauna.

Climate change complicates efforts to ensure survival and recovery of St. Lawrence Estuary beluga.

Decades after a ban on hunting, and despite focused management interventions, the endangered St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population has failed to recover. We applied a population viability analysis to simulate the responses of the SLE beluga population across a wide range of variability and uncertainty under current and projected changes in environmental and climate-mediated conditions. Three proximate threats to recovery were explored: ocean noise; contaminants; and prey limitation. Even the most optimistic scenarios failed to achieve the reliable positive population growth needed to meet current recovery targets. Here we show that predicted effects of climate change may be a more significant driver of SLE beluga population dynamics than the proximate threats we considered. Aggressive mitigation of all three proximate threats will be needed to build the population's resilience and allow the population to persist long enough for global actions to mitigate climate change to take effect.

Applying the zoo model to conservation of threatened exceptional plant species.

Maintaining a living plant collection is the most common method of ex situ conservation for plant species that cannot be seed banked (i.e., exceptional species). Viability of living collections, and their value for future conservation efforts, can be limited without coordinated efforts to track and manage individuals across institutions. Using a pedigree-focused approach, the zoological community has established an inter-institutional infrastructure to support long-term viability of captive animal populations. We assessed the ability of this coordinated metacollection infrastructure to support the conservation of 4 plant species curated in living collections at multiple botanic gardens around the world. Limitations in current practices include the inability to compile, share, and analyze plant collections data at the individual level, as well as difficulty in tracking original provenance of ex situ material. The coordinated metacollection framework used by zoos can be adopted by the botanical community to improve conservation outcomes by minimizing the loss of genetic diversity in collections. We suggest actions to improve ex situ conservation of exceptional plant species, including developing a central database to aggregate data and track unique individuals of priority threatened species among institutions and adapting a pedigree-based population management tool that incorporates life-history aspects unique to plants. If approached collaboratively across regional, national, and global scales, these actions could transform ex situ conservation of threatened plant species.

Aplicación del Modelo Zoológico a la Conservación de Especies Excepcionales de Plantas Amenazadas Resumen El mantenimiento de una colección de plantas vivas es el método más común para de conservación ex situ para especies de plantas que no pueden almacenarse en bancos de semillas (i. e., especies excepcionales). La viabilidad de las colecciones vivientes, junto con el valor que representan para los futuros esfuerzo de conservación, puede estar limitada si no existen esfuerzos coordinados para rastrear y manejar a los individuos entre las instituciones. Mediante una estrategia enfocada en el linaje, la comunidad de zoológicos ha establecido una infraestructura interinstitucional que respalda la viabilidad a largo plazo de las poblaciones de animales en cautiverio. Evaluamos la habilidad de esta infraestructura coordinada de metacolecciones para apoyar en la conservación de cuatro especies de plantas curadas en colecciones vivientes en varios jardines botánicos de todo el mundo. Las limitaciones de las prácticas contemporáneas incluyen la incapacidad de recopilar, compartir y analizar los datos de las colecciones de plantas a nivel individual, así como la dificultad de rastrear la procedencia original del material ex situ. El marco de trabajo de metacolecciones coordinadas que utilizan los zoológicos puede ser adoptado por la comunidad botánica para mejorar los resultados de conservación al minimizar la pérdida de la diversidad genética que ocurre en las colecciones. Sugerimos acciones que aumenten la conservación ex situ de las especies excepcionales de plantas. Estas acciones incluyen el desarrollo de una base de datos central para acumular datos y rastrear entre las instituciones a los individuos únicos de las especies amenazadas prioritarias y la adaptación de una herramienta de manejo poblacional basada en el linaje que incorpore los aspectos únicos de la historia de vida de las plantas. Si estas acciones se plantean colaborativamente a escala regional, nacional y global, podrían transformar la conservación ex situ de las especies amenazadas de plantas.

Biological and Sociopolitical Sources of Uncertainty in Population Viability Analysis for Endangered Species Recovery Planning.

Although population viability analysis (PVA) can be an important tool for strengthening endangered species recovery efforts, the extent to which such analyses remain embedded in the social process of recovery planning is often unrecognized. We analyzed two recovery plans for the Mexican wolf that were developed using similar data and methods but arrived at contrasting conclusions as to appropriate recovery goals or criteria. We found that approximately half of the contrast arose from uncertainty regarding biological data, with the remainder divided between policy-related decisions and mixed biological-policy factors. Contrasts arose from both differences in input parameter values and how parameter uncertainty informed the level of precaution embodied in resulting criteria. Policy-related uncertainty originated from contrasts in thresholds for acceptable risk and disagreement as to how to define endangered species recovery. Rather than turning to PVA to produce politically acceptable definitions of recovery that appear science-based, agencies should clarify the nexus between science and policy elements in their decision processes. The limitations we identify in endangered-species policy and how PVAs are conducted as part of recovery planning must be addressed if PVAs are to fulfill their potential to increase the odds of successful conservation outcomes.

Lessons from 30 years of population viability analysis of wildlife populations.

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been used for three decades to assess threats and evaluate conservation options for wildlife populations. What has been learned from PVA on in situ populations are valuable lessons also for assessing and managing viability and sustainability of ex situ populations. The dynamics of individual populations are unpredictable, due to limited knowledge about important factors, variability in the environment, and the probabilistic nature of demographic events. PVA considers such uncertainty within simulations that generate the distribution of likely fates for a population; management of ex situ populations should also take into consideration the uncertainty in our data and in the trajectories of populations. The processes affecting wildlife populations interact, with feedbacks often leading to amplified threats to viability; projections of ex situ populations should include such feedbacks to allow for management that foresees and responds to the cumulative and synergistic threats. PVA is useful for evaluating conservation options only if the goals for each population and measures of success are first clearly identified; similarly, for ex situ populations to contribute maximally to species conservation, the purposes for the population and definitions of sustainability in terms of acceptable risk must be documented. PVA requires a lot of data, knowledge of many processes affecting the populations, modeling expertize, and understanding of management goals and constraints. Therefore, to be useful in guiding conservation it must be a collaborative, trans-disciplinary, and social process. PVA can help integrate management of in situ and ex situ populations within comprehensive species conservation plans.

Conservation and Genetics.

Humans are responsible for a cataclysm of species extinction that will change the world as we see it, and will adversely affect human health and wellbeing. We need to understand at individual and societal levels why species conservation is important. Accepting the premise that species have value, we need to next consider the mechanisms underlying species extinction and what we can do to reverse the process. One of the last stages of species extinction is the reduction of a species to a few populations of relatively few individuals, a scenario that leads invariably to inbreeding and its adverse consequences, inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression can be so severe that populations become at risk of extinction not only because of the expression of harmful recessive alleles (alleles having no phenotypic effect when in the heterozygous condition, e.g., Aa, where a is the recessive allele), but also because of their inability to respond genetically with sufficient speed to adapt to changing environmental conditions. However, new conservation approaches based on foundational quantitative and population genetic theory advocate for active genetic management of fragmented populations by facilitating gene movements between populations, i.e., admixture, or genetic rescue. Why species conservation is critical, the genetic consequences of small population size that often lead to extinction, and possible solutions to the problem of small population size are discussed and presented.

Evaluating anthropogenic threats to endangered killer whales to inform effective recovery plans.

Understanding cumulative effects of multiple threats is key to guiding effective management to conserve endangered species. The critically endangered, Southern Resident killer whale population of the northeastern Pacific Ocean provides a data-rich case to explore anthropogenic threats on population viability. Primary threats include: limitation of preferred prey, Chinook salmon; anthropogenic noise and disturbance, which reduce foraging efficiency; and high levels of stored contaminants, including PCBs. We constructed a population viability analysis to explore possible demographic trajectories and the relative importance of anthropogenic stressors. The population is fragile, with no growth projected under current conditions, and decline expected if new or increased threats are imposed. Improvements in fecundity and calf survival are needed to reach a conservation objective of 2.3% annual population growth. Prey limitation is the most important factor affecting population growth. However, to meet recovery targets through prey management alone, Chinook abundance would have to be sustained near the highest levels since the 1970s. The most optimistic mitigation of noise and contaminants would make the difference between a declining and increasing population, but would be insufficient to reach recovery targets. Reducing acoustic disturbance by 50% combined with increasing Chinook by 15% would allow the population to reach 2.3% growth.

A father effect explains sex-ratio bias.

Sex ratio allocation has important fitness consequences, and theory predicts that parents should adjust offspring sex ratio in cases where the fitness returns of producing male and female offspring vary. The ability of fathers to bias offspring sex ratios has traditionally been dismissed given the expectation of an equal proportion of X- and Y-chromosome-bearing sperm (CBS) in ejaculates due to segregation of sex chromosomes at meiosis. This expectation has been recently refuted. Here we used Peromyscus leucopus to demonstrate that sex ratio is explained by an exclusive effect of the father, and suggest a likely mechanism by which male-driven sex-ratio bias is attained. We identified a male sperm morphological marker that is associated with the mechanism leading to sex ratio bias; differences among males in the sperm nucleus area (a proxy for the sex chromosome that the sperm contains) explain 22% variation in litter sex ratio. We further show the role played by the sperm nucleus area as a mediator in the relationship between individual genetic variation and sex-ratio bias. Fathers with high levels of genetic variation had ejaculates with a higher proportion of sperm with small nuclei area. This, in turn, led to siring a higher proportion of sons (25% increase in sons per 0.1 decrease in the inbreeding coefficient). Our results reveal a plausible mechanism underlying unexplored male-driven sex-ratio biases. We also discuss why this pattern of paternal bias can be adaptive. This research puts to rest the idea that father contribution to sex ratio variation should be disregarded in vertebrates, and will stimulate research on evolutionary constraints to sex ratios-for example, whether fathers and mothers have divergent, coinciding, or neutral sex allocation interests. Finally, these results offer a potential explanation for those intriguing cases in which there are sex ratio biases, such as in humans.

Inbreeding and selection shape genomic diversity in captive populations: Implications for the conservation of endangered species.

Captive breeding programs are often initiated to prevent species extinction until reintroduction into the wild can occur. However, the evolution of captive populations via inbreeding, drift, and selection can impair fitness, compromising reintroduction programs. To better understand the evolutionary response of species bred in captivity, we used nearly 5500 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in populations of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) to measure the impact of breeding regimes on genomic diversity. We bred mice in captivity for 20 generations using two replicates of three protocols: random mating (RAN), selection for docile behaviors (DOC), and minimizing mean kinship (MK). The MK protocol most effectively retained genomic diversity and reduced the effects of selection. Additionally, genomic diversity was significantly related to fitness, as assessed with pedigrees and SNPs supported with genomic sequence data. Because captive-born individuals are often less fit in wild settings compared to wild-born individuals, captive-estimated fitness correlations likely underestimate the effects in wild populations. Therefore, minimizing inbreeding and selection in captive populations is critical to increasing the probability of releasing fit individuals into the wild.

Use of animals with partially known ancestries in scientifically managed breeding programs.

Animals with only partially known ancestry present a problem for population managers because it can be difficult to determine their relative genetic value to the population. So long as their ancestry is not completely unknown, population management software such as PMx can calculate a mean kinship for these animals, but that mean kinship is calculated such that there is no decrease in relative genetic value or "penalty" for only partially known ancestry. However, there is a longer-term genetic cost to having animals with only partially known ancestry in the population, and thus it is appropriate to "penalize" animals with partially known ancestry to some extent. The challenge is determining the correct "penalty" which will serve to decrease the percent unknown ancestry in subsequent generations while not causing excessive selection against the known ancestry of the animal. A new parameter of relative genetic value is developed which takes into account both an animal's mean kinship as well as its percent known ancestry. The method used in PMx to calculate the mean kinships also in general overestimates the inbreeding coefficients of offspring of animals with partially known ancestry when the known parents share a common ancestor, but can underestimate inbreeding if common ancestors exist within the unknown portion of the pedigree. This may result in population managers selecting less suitable pairs for breeding in an attempt to avoid an apparent higher level of inbreeding. A parameter is developed that adjusts the inbreeding coefficient to more accurately reflect the likely inbreeding coefficient of potential offspring. Zoo Biol. 35:319-325, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pedigree analysis for the genetic management of group-living species.

Captive breeding programs are an important tool for the conservation of endangered species. These programs are commonly managed using pedigrees containing information about the history of each individual's family, such as breeding pairs and parentage. However, there are some species that are kept in groups where it is hard to distinguish between particular individuals within the group, making it very difficult to record any information at an individual level. Currently, software and methods commonly used for registering and analyzing pedigrees to help manage populations at an individual level are not adequate for managing these group-living species. Therefore, there is a need to further develop these tools and methodologies for pedigree analysis to better manage group-living species. PMx is a program used for the management of ex situ populations in zoos and aquariums. We adapted the pedigree analysis method implemented in PMx to analyze pedigrees (records of descendant lineages) of group-living species. In addition, we developed a group pedigree data entry sheet and group2PMx, a converter program that enables group datasets to be imported into PMx. We show how pedigree analysis of a group-living species can be used for population management using the studbook of the endangered Texas blind cave salamander Eurycea rathbuni. Such analyses of the pedigree of groups can improve the management of group-living species in ex situ breeding programs. Firstly, it enables better management decisions based on more accurate genetic measures between groups, allowing for greater control of inbreeding. Secondly, it can improve the conditions in which group-living species are held by adapting husbandry practices to better reflect conditions of these species living in the wild. The use of the spreadsheet and group2PMx extends the application of PMx, allowing conservation managers and other institutions outside the zoo and aquarium community to easily import and analyze their pedigree data.

The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations.

It has been proposed that in slow-growing vertebrate populations survival generally has a greater influence on population growth than reproduction. Despite many studies cautioning against such generalizations for conservation, wildlife management for slow-growing populations still often focuses on perturbing survival without careful evaluation as to whether those changes are likely or feasible. Here, we evaluate the relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops cf aduncus) populations: a large, apparently stable population and a smaller one that is forecast to decline. We also assessed the feasibility and effectiveness of wildlife management objectives aimed at boosting either reproduction or survival. Consistent with other analytically based elasticity studies, survival had the greatest effect on population trajectories when altering vital rates by equal proportions. However, the findings of our alternative analytical approaches are in stark contrast to commonly used proportional sensitivity analyses and suggest that reproduction is considerably more important. We show that in the stable population reproductive output is higher, and adult survival is lower;the difference in viability between the two populations is due to the difference in reproduction;reproductive rates are variable, whereas survival rates are relatively constant over time;perturbations on the basis of observed, temporal variation indicate that population dynamics are much more influenced by reproduction than by adult survival;for the apparently declining population, raising reproductive rates would be an effective and feasible tool to reverse the forecast population decline; increasing survival would be ineffective. Our findings highlight the importance of reproduction - even in slow-growing populations - and the need to assess the effect of natural variation in vital rates on population viability. We echo others in cautioning against generalizations based on life-history traits and recommend that population modeling for conservation should also take into account the magnitude of vital rate changes that could be attained under alternative management scenarios.

Cloning and molecular characterization of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) and telomere length analysis of Peromyscus leucopus.

Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) is the catalytic subunit of telomerase complex that regulates telomerase activity to maintain telomere length for all animals with linear chromosomes. As the Mus musculus (MM) laboratory mouse has very long telomeres compared to humans, a potential alternative animal model for telomere research is the Peromyscus leucopus (PL) mouse that has telomere lengths close to the human range and has the wild counterparts for comparison. We report the full TERT coding sequence (pTERT) from PL mice to use in the telomere research. Comparative analysis with eight other mammalian TERTs revealed a pTERT protein considerably homologous to other TERTs and preserved all TERT specific-sequence signatures, yet with some distinctive features. pTERT displayed the highest nucleotide and amino acid sequence homology with hamster TERT. Unlike human but similar to MM mice, pTERT expression was detected in various adult somatic tissues of PL mice, with the highest expression in testes. Four different captive stocks of PL mice and wild-captured PL mice each displayed group-specific average telomere lengths, with the longest and shortest telomeres in inbred and outbred stock mice, respectively. pTERT showed considerable numbers of synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations. A pTERT proximal promoter region cloned was homologous among PL and MM mice and rat, but with species-specific features. From PL mice, we further cloned and characterized ribosomal protein, large, P0 (pRPLP0) to use as an internal control for various assays. Peromyscus mice have been extensively used for various studies, including human diseases, for which pTERT and pRPLP0 would be useful tools.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics.

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.

Measuring relatedness between inbred individuals.

Genetic relatedness between individuals is an important measure in many areas of biology. However, some relatedness measures for use with molecular (allele) data assume that the individuals themselves are not inbred. Here, we present a new measure of relatedness based on the different modes of identity-by-descent for alleles that has an upper bound of 1 even when the individuals being compared are themselves inbred. This new measure is compared to several other measures of relatedness using several simple examples and pedigree data from the wolf population in Isle Royale National Park.