Estimating typhoid incidence from community-based serosurveys: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae (Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi), is largely unknown in regions without blood culture surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether new diagnostic serological markers for typhoidal Salmonella can reliably estimate population-level incidence. METHODS: We collected longitudinal blood samples from patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana between 2016 and 2021 and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to hemolysin E and S Typhi lipopolysaccharide. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titres and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys. FINDINGS: The longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children younger than 5 years ranged between 58·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 42·1-81·4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to 6·6 per 100 person-years (4·3-9·9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates. INTERPRETATION: The approach described here has the potential to expand the geographical scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographical regions and time. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Nepali, Bengali and Urdu translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Age-related changes in the 25-hydroxyvitamin D versus parathyroid hormone relationship suggest a different reason why older adults require more vitamin D.

Vitamin D requirements are thought to vary with age, but there is little comparative evidence for this. One goal in establishing a vitamin D requirement is to avoid secondary hyperparathyroidism. We studied 1741 euthyroid, thyroid clinic outpatients without evidence of calcium abnormalities, ranging in age from 19 to 97 yr, whose serum and urine had been analyzed for calcium, vitamin D, and parathyroid status. We found no effect of age on the 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration associated with specific vitamin D intakes, and there was no relationship between 25(OH)D and 1,25hydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D]. In every age group, serum 1,25(OH)2D declined with increasing creatinine (P < 0.001). What changed with age included creatinine, which correlated with 25(OH)D (r = 0.146, P < 0.001) only in the youngest age group (19-50 yr) but not in the older age groups (P > 0.1). Creatinine did not correlate with PTH in the youngest age group, but the relationship became significant as age increased (e.g. for the elderly, r = 0.365, P < 0.001). Linear regression of log PTH vs. log 25(OH)D agreed with the natural shape of the relationship observed with scatterplot smoothing, and this showed no plateau in PTH as 25(OH)D increased. We compared PTH concentrations among age groups, based on 20 nmol/liter increments in 25(OH)D. Mean PTH in adults older than 70 yr was consistently higher than in adults younger than 50 yr (P < 0.05 by ANOVA and Dunnett's t test). PTH levels of the elderly who had 25(OH)D concentrations greater than 100 nmol/liter matched PTH of younger adults having 25(OH)D concentrations near 70 nmol/liter. This study shows that all age groups exhibit a high prevalence of 25(OH)D insufficiency and secondary hyperparathyroidism. Older adults are just as efficient in maintaining 25(OH)D, but they need more vitamin D to produce the higher 25(OH)D concentrations required to overcome the hyperparathyroidism associated with their diminishing renal function.