The development and application of a two-step surveillance process for Healthy China Initiative based on wide coverage interagency data.

BACKGROUND: Healthy China is a nationwide health strategy aiming at improving health from diverse dimensions, and strengthening high-quality assessment is essential for its stimulation. However, there is limited evidence in the surveillance of the actual performance of the initiative at regional levels. This study innovatively proposes a two-step surveillance process which comprehensively monitors Healthy China Initiative based on regional realities, thus provides guidance for policymaking. METHODS: A flexible indicator system was firstly developed basing on Delphi survey and focus group discussions. And then the Analysis Hierarchical Process and the TOPSIS method were used to determine the weights of indicators and calculate comprehensive indexes as the surveillance outcomes. A pilot study was conducted in a typical area in China to verify the applicability of the process. RESULTS: Following the surveillance process and basing on the implementation of Healthy China Initiative in the target region, an indicator system comprised of 5 domains and 23 indicators with weights was first developed specifically for the pilot area. Then 1848 interagency data of the study area were collected from 8 provincial institutions/departments to calculate the indexes and ranks of the five domains which were health level, healthy living, disease prevention and control, health service, and healthy environment. The outcomes showed that Healthy China Initiative in the pilot area had been constantly improved since the strategy proposed, while there were still issues to be tackled such as the deficient monitoring mechanisms and unevenly development progress. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposed a pragmatic surveillance process with indicators which could be tailored for specific context of target regions and produce meaningful surveillance outcomes to inform decision-making for policymakers, and also provided a theoretical foundation as well as empirical evidence for further health strategies and plannings assessment studies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of capecitabine maintenance therapy plus best supportive care vs. best supportive care alone as first-line treatment of newly diagnosed metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Objectives: Maintenance therapy with capecitabine after induction chemotherapy for patients with newly diagnosed metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) has been confirmed to be effective. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine as maintenance therapy for patients with mNPC from the Chinese payers' perspective. Methods: Markov model was conducted to simulate the disease progress and evaluated the economic and health outcomes of capecitabine maintenance plus best-supported care (CBSC) or best-supported care (BSC) alone for patients with mNPC. Survival data were derived from the NCT02460419 clinical trial. Costs and utilities were obtained from the standard fee database and published literature. Measured outcomes were total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), life-years (LYs), incremental cost-utility ratios (ICURs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental net monetary benefit (INMB), and incremental net-health benefit (INHB). Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess model robustness. Additional subgroup cost-effectiveness analyses were accomplished. Results: Throughout the course of the disease, the CBSC group provide an incremental cost of $9 734 and additional 1.16 QALYs (1.56 LYs) compared with the BSC group, resulting in an ICUR of $8 391/QALY and ICER of $6 240/LY. Moreover, the INHB was 0.89 QALYs, and the INMB was $32 034 at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $36 007/QALY. Subgroup analyses revealed that CBSC presented a positive trend of gaining an INHB in all subgroups compared with the BSC group. The results of sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of our model. Conclusion: Compared with BSC, after induction chemotherapy, CBSC as a first-line treatment was cost-effective for newly diagnosed mNPC. These results suggest capecitabine maintenance therapy after induction chemotherapy as a new option for patients with newly diagnosed mNPC.

Nomogram for accurate and quantitative prediction of the risk of psoriatic arthritis in Chinese adult patients with moderate and severe plaque psoriasis.

BACKGROUND: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory form of arthritis that appears approximately 7-10 years after psoriasis and remains undiagnosed in most of patients. Currently, only a few quantitative and succinct PsA-risk prediction models are available. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to establish and validate a prediction model for quantitatively assessing the risk of PsA in moderate and severe plaque psoriasis patients. MATERIALS & METHODS: A non-interventional and cross-sectional study was conducted. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory records were collected and blindly reviewed. Logistic regression was used to develop this prediction model. With C-index and calibration curve, internal validation was performed. Five-fold cross validation, external validation and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also applied to assess this model. RESULTS: Among 405 patients, 111 patients had PsA. Arthralgia (OR = 39.346; 95% CI: 20.139-82.579), C-reactive protein (OR = 2.008; 95% CI: 1.051-3.838), lymphocyte level (OR = 0.341; 95% CI: 0.177-0.621), hypertension (OR = 0.235; 95% CI: 0.077-0.660) and disease duration (OR = 1.033; 95% CI: 0.998-1.071) were identified as potential predictors affecting the risk of transition from moderate and severe PsO to PsA. C-index for the prediction nomogram was 0.911 (95% CI: 0.879-0.943), and was confirmed to be 0.905 through 1000-time bootstrapping internal validation. Cross validation and external validation were preformed and proved the accuracy and generalizability of this prediction model. CONCLUSION: This study establishes a quantitative predictive nomogram with good predictive power for assessing the risk of PsA in patients with moderate and severe PsO.

Serum Uric Acid Concentrations and Risk of Adverse Outcomes in Patients With COVID-19.

Background: Although hyperuricemia frequently associates with respiratory diseases, patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) can show marked hypouricemia. Previous studies on the association of serum uric acid with risk of adverse outcomes related to COVID-19 have produced contradictory results. The precise relationship between admission serum uric acid and adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients is unknown. Methods: Data of patients affected by laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and admitted to Leishenshan Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome was composite and comprised events, such as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, or mortality. Logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the association between serum concentrations of uric acid and the composite outcome, as well as each of its components. To determine the association between serum uric acid and in-hospital adverse outcomes, serum uric acid was also categorized by restricted cubic spline, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to estimate odds ratios (OR). Results: The study cohort included 1854 patients (mean age, 58 years; 52% women). The overall mean ± SD of serum levels of uric acid was 308 ± 96 µmol/L. Among them, 95 patients were admitted to ICU, 75 patients received mechanical ventilation, and 38 died. In total, 114 patients reached composite end-points (have either ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death) during hospitalization. Compared with a reference group with estimated baseline serum uric acid of 279-422 µmol/L, serum uric acid values ≥ 423 µmol/L were associated with an increased risk of composite outcome (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.07- 6.29) and mechanical ventilation (OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.06- 8.51). Serum uric acid ≤ 278 µmol/L was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.18- 3.65), ICU admission (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.17- 4.05]), and mechanical ventilation (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.06- 4.28), as assessed by multivariate analysis. Conclusions: This study shows that the association between admission serum uric acid and composite outcome of COVID-19 patients was U-shaped. In particular, we found that compared with baseline serum uric acid levels of 279-422 µmol/L, values ≥ 423 µmol/L were associated with an increased risk of composite outcome and mechanical ventilation, whereas levels ≤ 278 µmol/L associated with increased risk of composite outcome, ICU admission and mechanical ventilation.