Validation of a clinical breast cancer risk assessment tool combining a polygenic score for all ancestries with traditional risk factors.

PURPOSE: We previously described a combined risk score (CRS) that integrates a multiple-ancestry polygenic risk score (MA-PRS) with the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) model to assess breast cancer (BC) risk. Here, we present a longitudinal validation of CRS in a real-world cohort. METHODS: This study included 130,058 patients referred for hereditary cancer genetic testing and negative for germline pathogenic variants in BC-associated genes. Data were obtained by linking genetic test results to medical claims (median follow-up 12.1 months). CRS calibration was evaluated by the ratio of observed to expected BCs. RESULTS: Three hundred forty BCs were observed over 148,349 patient-years. CRS was well-calibrated and demonstrated superior calibration compared with TC in high-risk deciles. MA-PRS alone had greater discriminatory accuracy than TC, and CRS had approximately 2-fold greater discriminatory accuracy than MA-PRS or TC. Among those classified as high risk by TC, 32.6% were low risk by CRS, and of those classified as low risk by TC, 4.3% were high risk by CRS. In cases where CRS and TC classifications disagreed, CRS was more accurate in predicting incident BC. CONCLUSION: CRS was well-calibrated and significantly improved BC risk stratification. Short-term follow-up suggests that clinical implementation of CRS should improve outcomes for patients of all ancestries through personalized risk-based screening and prevention.

External validation of a multi-biomarker-based score for predicting risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: A multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA)-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score was developed and internally validated in a Medicare cohort to predict 3-year risk for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or CVD death in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It combines the MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3, TNF-R1, age and four clinical variables. We are now externally validating it in a younger RA cohort. METHODS: Claims data from a private aggregator were linked to MBDA test data to create a cohort of RA patients ≥18 years old. A univariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was fit using the MBDA-based CVD risk score as sole predictor of time-to-a-CVD event (hospitalized MI or stroke). Hazard ratio (HR) estimate was determined for all patients and for clinically relevant subgroups. A multivariable Cox model evaluated whether the MBDA-based CVD risk score adds predictive information to clinical data. RESULTS: 49,028 RA patients (340 CVD events) were studied. Mean age was 52.3 years; 18.3% were male. HR for predicting 3-year risk of a CVD event by the MBDA-based CVD risk score in the full cohort was 3.99 (95% CI: 3.51-4.49, p = 5.0×10-95). HR were also significant for subgroups based on age, comorbidities, disease activity, and drug use. In a multivariable model, the MBDA-based CVD risk score added significant information to hypertension, diabetes, tobacco use, history of CVD, age, sex and CRP (HR = 2.27, p = 1.7×10-7). CONCLUSION: The MBDA-based CVD risk score has been externally validated in an RA cohort that is younger than and independent of the Medicare cohort that was used for development and internal validation.

Identifying homologous recombination deficiency in breast cancer: genomic instability score distributions differ among breast cancer subtypes.

PURPOSE: A 3-biomarker homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) score is a key component of a currently FDA-approved companion diagnostic assay to identify HRD in patients with ovarian cancer using a threshold score of ≥ 42, though recent studies have explored the utility of a lower threshold (GIS ≥ 33). The present study evaluated whether the ovarian cancer thresholds may also be appropriate for major breast cancer subtypes by comparing the genomic instability score (GIS) distributions of BRCA1/2-deficient estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (ER + BC) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) to the GIS distribution of BRCA1/2-deficient ovarian cancer. METHODS: Ovarian cancer and breast cancer (ER + BC and TNBC) tumors from ten study cohorts were sequenced to identify pathogenic BRCA1/2 mutations, and GIS was calculated using a previously described algorithm. Pathologic complete response (pCR) to platinum therapy was evaluated in a subset of TNBC samples. For TNBC, a threshold was set and threshold validity was assessed relative to clinical outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 560 ovarian cancer, 805 ER + BC, and 443 TNBC tumors were included. Compared to ovarian cancer, the GIS distribution of BRCA1/2-deficient samples was shifted lower for ER + BC (p = 0.015), but not TNBC (p = 0.35). In the subset of TNBC samples, univariable logistic regression models revealed that GIS status using thresholds of ≥ 42 and ≥ 33 were significant predictors of response to platinum therapy. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the GIS thresholds used for ovarian cancer may also be appropriate for TNBC, but not ER + BC. GIS thresholds in TNBC were validated using clinical response data to platinum therapy.

Development and Validation of a Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Score on the Basis of Genetic Ancestry Composition.

PURPOSE: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer (BC) risk stratification have been developed primarily in women of European ancestry. Their application to women of non-European ancestry has lagged because of the lack of a formal approach to incorporate genetic ancestry and ancestry-dependent variant frequencies and effect sizes. Here, we propose a multiple-ancestry PRS (MA-PRS) that addresses these issues and may be useful in the development of equitable PRSs across other cancers and common diseases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Women referred for hereditary cancer testing were divided into consecutive cohorts for development (n = 189,230) and for independent validation (n = 89,126). Individual genetic composition as fractions of three reference ancestries (African, East Asian, and European) was determined from ancestry-informative single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The MA-PRS is a combination of three ancestry-specific PRSs on the basis of genetic ancestral composition. Stratification of risk was evaluated by multivariable logistic regression models controlling for family cancer history. Goodness-of-fit analysis compared expected with observed relative risks by quantiles of the MA-PRS distribution. RESULTS: In independent validation, the MA-PRS was significantly associated with BC risk in the full cohort (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.40 to 1.46; P = 8.6 × 10-308) and within each major ancestry. The top decile of the MA-PRS consistently identified patients with two-fold increased risk of developing BC. Goodness-of-fit tests showed that the MA-PRS was well calibrated and predicted BC risk accurately in the tails of the distribution for both European and non-European women. CONCLUSION: The MA-PRS uses genetic ancestral composition to expand the utility of polygenic risk prediction to non-European women. Inclusion of genetic ancestry in polygenic risk prediction presents an opportunity for more personalized treatment decisions for women of varying and mixed ancestries.

Clinical Validation of EndoPredict in Pre-Menopausal Women with ER-Positive, HER2-Negative Primary Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: The EndoPredict prognostic assay is validated to predict distant recurrence and response to chemotherapy primarily in post-menopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive (ER+), HER2- breast cancer. This study evaluated the performance of EndoPredict in pre-menopausal women. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Tumor samples from 385 pre-menopausal women with ER+, HER2- primary breast cancer (pT1-3, pN0-1) who did not receive chemotherapy in addition to endocrine therapy were tested with EndoPredict to produce a 12-gene EP molecular score and an integrated EPclin score that includes pathologic tumor size and nodal status. Associations of molecular and EPclin scores with 10-year distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 9.7 years, both the EP molecular score and the molecular-clinicopathologic EPclin score were associated with increased risk of distant recurrence [HR, 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18-1.50; P = 7.2 × 10-6; HR, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.26-5.66; P = 9.8 × 10-8, respectively]. Both scores remained significant after adjusting for clinical factors in multivariate analysis. Patients with low-risk EPclin scores (64.7%) had significantly improved DRFS compared with high-risk patients (HR, 4.61; 95% CI, 1.40-15.17; P = 4.2 × 10-3). At 10 years, patients with low-risk and high-risk EPclin scores had a DRFS of 97% (95% CI, 93%-99%) and 76% (95% CI, 67%-82%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The EPclin score is strongly associated with DRFS in pre-menopausal women who received adjuvant endocrine therapy alone. On the basis of these data, pre-menopausal women with EPclin low-risk breast cancer may be treated with endocrine therapy only and safely forgo adjuvant chemotherapy.

Concordance of BRCA mutation detection in tumor versus blood, and frequency of bi-allelic loss of BRCA in tumors from patients in the phase III SOLO2 trial.

OBJECTIVE: Maintenance olaparib provided a progression-free survival benefit in the phase III SOLO2 trial (NCT01874353) in patients with platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer and a BRCA mutation (BRCAm). However, questions remain regarding tumor versus germline BRCA testing and the impact of heterozygous versus bi-allelic loss of BRCA1 or BRCA2 in the tumor. METHODS: Blood and tumor samples were analyzed. A concordance analysis of germline BRCAm status (BRACAnalysis® CLIA test) and tumor BRCAm status (myChoice® CDx test) was conducted (Myriad Genetic Laboratories, Inc.). Bi-allelic loss of BRCA1 and BRCA2 and a genomic instability score (GIS) (myChoice® CDx test) were also determined. RESULTS: 289 of 295 enrolled patients had a germline BRCAm confirmed centrally and tumor BRCAm status was evaluable in 241 patients. There was 98% and 100% concordance between tumor and germline testing for BRCA1m and BRCA2m, respectively, with discordance found in four cases. Of 210 tumor samples evaluable for BRCA zygosity, 100% of germline BRCA1-mutated tumors (n = 144) and 98% of germline BRCA2-mutated tumors (n = 66) had bi-allelic loss of BRCA. One patient with a heterozygous BRCA2m had a GIS of 53, was progression free for 911 days and remained on olaparib at data cut-off. CONCLUSIONS: Very high concordance was demonstrated between tumor and germline BRCA testing, supporting wider implementation of tumor BRCA testing in ovarian cancer. Near 100% rates of bi-allelic loss of BRCA in platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian tumors suggest routine testing for BRCA zygosity is not required in this population and reflects BRCA loss being a driver of tumorigenesis.

Comprehensive Breast Cancer Risk Assessment for CHEK2 and ATM Pathogenic Variant Carriers Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score and the Tyrer-Cuzick Model.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer risks for CHEK2 and ATM pathogenic variant (PV) carriers are modified by an 86-single nucleotide polymorphism polygenic risk score (PRS) and individual clinical factors. Here, we describe comprehensive risk prediction models for women of European ancestry combining PV status, PRS, and individual clinical variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included deidentified clinical records from 358,095 women of European ancestry who received testing with a multigene panel (September 2013 to November 2019). Model development included CHEK2 PV carriers (n = 4,286), ATM PV carriers (n = 2,666), and women negative for other breast cancer risk gene PVs (n = 351,143). Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using multivariable logistic regression with adjustment for familial cancer history. Risk estimates incorporating PV status, PRS, and Tyrer-Cuzick v7.02 were calculated using a Fixed-Stratified method that accounts for correlations between risk factors. Stratification of PV carriers into risk categories on the basis of remaining lifetime risk (RLR) was assessed in independent cohorts of PV carriers. RESULTS: ORs for association of PV status with breast cancer were 2.01 (95% CI, 1.88 to 2.16) and 1.83 (95% CI, 1.68 to 2.00) for CHEK2 and ATM PV carriers, respectively. ORs for PRS per one standard deviation were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66) and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.64) in CHEK2 and ATM PV carriers, respectively. Using the combined model (PRS plus Tyrer-Cuzick plus PV status), RLR was low (≤ 20%) for 24.2% of CHEK2 PV carriers, medium (20%-50%) for 63.8%, and high (> 50%) for 12.0%. Among ATM PV carriers, RLR was low for 31.5% of patients, medium for 58.5%, and high for 9.7%. CONCLUSION: In CHEK2 and ATM PV carriers, risk assessment including PRS, Tyrer-Cuzick, and PV status has the potential for more precise direction of screening and prevention strategies.

Performance of the IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model of breast cancer risk by race and ethnicity in the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: The IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model is used clinically to guide breast cancer screening and prevention, but was developed primarily in non-Hispanic White women. Little is known about its long-term performance in a racially/ethnically diverse population. METHODS: The Women's Health Initiative study enrolled postmenopausal women from 1993-1998. Women were included who were aged <80 years at enrollment with no prior breast cancer or mastectomy and with data required for IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick calculation (weight; height; ages at menarche, first birth, and menopause; menopausal hormone therapy use; and family history of breast or ovarian cancer). Calibration was assessed by the ratio of observed breast cancer cases to the number expected by the IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model (O/E; calculated as the sum of cumulative hazards). Differential discrimination was tested for by self-reported race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander, and American Indian or Alaskan Native) using Cox regression. Exploratory analyses, including simulation of a protective single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs140068132 at 6q25, were performed. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 18.9 years, maximum 23.4 years), 6783 breast cancer cases occurred among 90,967 women. IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick was well calibrated overall (O/E ratio = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.97) and in most racial/ethnic groups, but overestimated risk for Hispanic women (O/E ratio = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). Discrimination did not differ by race/ethnicity. Exploratory simulation of the protective SNP suggested improved IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick calibration for Hispanic women (O/E ratio = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model is well calibrated for several racial/ethnic groups over 2 decades of follow-up. Studies that incorporate genetic and other risk factors, particularly among Hispanic women, are essential to improve breast cancer-risk prediction.

Integrating Clinical and Polygenic Factors to Predict Breast Cancer Risk in Women Undergoing Genetic Testing.

PURPOSE: Screening and prevention decisions for women at increased risk of developing breast cancer depend on genetic and clinical factors to estimate risk and select appropriate interventions. Integration of polygenic risk into clinical breast cancer risk estimators can improve discrimination. However, correlated genetic effects must be incorporated carefully to avoid overestimation of risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A novel Fixed-Stratified method was developed that accounts for confounding when adding a new factor to an established risk model. A combined risk score (CRS) of an 86-single-nucleotide polymorphism polygenic risk score and the Tyrer-Cuzick v7.02 clinical risk estimator was generated with attenuation for confounding by family history. Calibration and discriminatory accuracy of the CRS were evaluated in two independent validation cohorts of women of European ancestry (N = 1,615 and N = 518). Discrimination for remaining lifetime risk was examined by age-adjusted logistic regression. Risk stratification with a 20% risk threshold was compared between CRS and Tyrer-Cuzick in an independent clinical cohort (N = 32,576). RESULTS: Simulation studies confirmed that the Fixed-Stratified method produced accurate risk estimation across patients with different family history. In both validation studies, CRS and Tyrer-Cuzick were significantly associated with breast cancer. In an analysis with both CRS and Tyrer-Cuzick as predictors of breast cancer, CRS added significant discrimination independent of that captured by Tyrer-Cuzick (P < 10-11 in validation 1; P < 10-7 in validation 2). In an independent cohort, 18% of women shifted breast cancer risk categories from their Tyrer-Cuzick-based risk compared with risk estimates by CRS. CONCLUSION: Integrating clinical and polygenic factors into a risk model offers more effective risk stratification and supports a personalized genomic approach to breast cancer screening and prevention.

Modification of Homologous Recombination Deficiency Score Threshold and Association with Long-Term Survival in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

New therapies, such as poly-ADP ribose polymerase inhibitors (PARPi), and immunotherapy treatments have generated great interest in enhancing individualized molecular profiling of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) to improve management of the disease. In EOC patients, putative biomarkers for homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), microsatellite instability (MSI), and tumor mutational burden (TMB) were characterized and correlated with survival outcomes. A series of 300 consecutive EOC patients were enrolled. Patients underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy (n = 172) or primary cytoreductive surgery (n = 128). Molecular profiling and survival analyses were restricted to the primary cytoreductive surgery cohort due to tissue availability. All patients underwent germline testing for HRD- and MSI-related gene mutations. When sufficient tissue was available, screening for somatic BRCA1/2 mutations, BRCA1 promoter methylation, HRD score (a measure of genomic instability), MSI, and TMB testing were performed. HRD score ≥33 was associated with improved overall survival on multivariable analysis. In the era of biomarker-driven clinical care, HRD score ≥33 may be a useful adjunctive prognostic tool and should be evaluated in future studies to predict PARPi benefits.

Homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) score in germline BRCA2- versus ATM-altered prostate cancer.

The homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) score integrates three DNA-based measures of genomic instability, and has been understudied in prostate cancer. Given the recent FDA approval of two PARP inhibitors for prostate cancer, HRD score analysis could help to refine treatment selection. We assessed HRD score (defined as the sum of loss-of-heterozygosity, telomeric allelic imbalance, and large-scale state transitions) in three cohorts of primary prostate cancer, including a Johns Hopkins University (JHU) cohort with germline mutations in BRCA2, ATM, or CHEK2 (n = 64), the TCGA cohort (n = 391), and the PROGENE cohort (n = 102). In the JHU cohort, tumors with germline BRCA2 mutations had higher HRD scores (median = 27) than those with germline ATM or CHEK2 mutations (median = 16.5 [p = 0.029] and 9 [p < 0.001], respectively). For TCGA tumors without underlying HR pathway mutations, the median HRD score was 11, significantly lower than ovarian carcinoma lacking BRCA1/2 mutations (median = 28). In the absence of HR gene mutations, the median HRD score was unexpectedly higher among prostate cancers with TP53 mutations versus those without (17 vs. 11; p = 0.015); this finding was confirmed in the PROGENE cohort (24 vs. 16; p = 0.001). Finally, among eight BRCA2-altered patients who received olaparib, progression-free survival trended longer in those with HRD scores above versus below the median (14.9 vs. 9.9 months). We conclude that HRD scores are low in primary prostate cancer and higher in cases with germline BRCA2 or somatic TP53 mutations. Germline BRCA2-altered cases have significantly higher HRD scores than germline ATM-altered or CHEK2-altered cases, consistent with the lower efficacy of PARP inhibitors among the latter.

Derivation and internal validation of a multi-biomarker-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction score for rheumatoid arthritis patients.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Accurate CVD risk prediction could improve care for RA patients. Our goal is to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting CVD risk in RA patients. METHODS: Medicare claims data were linked to multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test results to create an RA patient cohort with age ≥ 40 years that was split 2:1 for training and internal validation. Clinical and RA-related variables, MBDA score, and its 12 biomarkers were evaluated as predictors of a composite CVD outcome: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or fatal CVD within 3 years. Model building used Cox proportional hazard regression with backward elimination. The final MBDA-based CVD risk score was internally validated and compared to four clinical CVD risk prediction models. RESULTS: 30,751 RA patients (904 CVD events) were analyzed. Covariates in the final MBDA-based CVD risk score were age, diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, history of CVD (excluding MI/stroke), MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3 and TNF-R1. In internal validation, the MBDA-based CVD risk score was a strong predictor of 3-year risk for a CVD event, with hazard ratio (95% CI) of 2.89 (2.46-3.41). The predicted 3-year CVD risk was low for 9.4% of patients, borderline for 10.2%, intermediate for 52.2%, and high for 28.2%. Model fit was good, with mean predicted versus observed 3-year CVD risks of 4.5% versus 4.4%. The MBDA-based CVD risk score significantly improved risk discrimination by the likelihood ratio test, compared to four clinical models. The risk score also improved prediction, reclassifying 42% of patients versus the simplest clinical model (age + sex), with a net reclassification index (NRI) (95% CI) of 0.19 (0.10-0.27); and 28% of patients versus the most comprehensive clinical model (age + sex + diabetes + hypertension + tobacco use + history of CVD + CRP), with an NRI of 0.07 (0.001-0.13). C-index was 0.715 versus 0.661 to 0.696 for the four clinical models. CONCLUSION: A prognostic score has been developed to predict 3-year CVD risk for RA patients by using clinical data, three serum biomarkers and the MBDA score. In internal validation, it had good accuracy and outperformed clinical models with and without CRP. The MBDA-based CVD risk prediction score may improve RA patient care by offering a risk stratification tool that incorporates the effect of RA inflammation.

Development and Validation of a Clinical Polygenic Risk Score to Predict Breast Cancer Risk.

PURPOSE: Women with a family history of breast cancer are frequently referred for hereditary cancer genetic testing, yet < 10% are found to have pathogenic variants in known breast cancer susceptibility genes. Large-scale genotyping studies have identified common variants (primarily single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) with individually modest breast cancer risk that, in aggregate, account for considerable breast cancer susceptibility. Here, we describe the development and empirical validation of an SNP-based polygenic breast cancer risk score. METHODS: A panel of 94 SNPs was examined for association with breast cancer in women of European ancestry undergoing hereditary cancer genetic testing and negative for pathogenic variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes. Candidate polygenic risk scores (PRSs) as predictors of personal breast cancer history were developed through multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, cancer history, and ancestry. An optimized PRS was validated in 2 independent cohorts (n = 13,174; n = 141,160). RESULTS: Within the training cohort (n = 24,259), 4,291 women (18%) had a personal history of breast cancer and 8,725 women (36%) reported breast cancer in a first-degree relative. The optimized PRS included 86 variants and was highly predictive of breast cancer status in both validation cohorts (P = 6.4 × 10-66; P < 10-325). The odds ratio (OR) per unit standard deviation was consistent between validations (OR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.39 to 1.52]; OR 1.47 [95% CI, 1.45 to 1.49]). In a direct comparison, the 86-SNP PRS outperformed a previously described PRS of 77 SNPs. CONCLUSION: The validation and implementation of a PRS for women without pathogenic variants in known breast cancer susceptibility genes offers potential for risk stratification to guide surveillance recommendations.

Genomic and Clinicopathologic Characterization of ATM-deficient Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: The ATM (ataxia telangiectasia mutated) gene is mutated in a subset of prostate cancers, and ATM mutation may confer specific therapeutic vulnerabilities, although ATM-deficient prostate cancers have not been well-characterized. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We genetically validated a clinical grade IHC assay to detect ATM protein loss and examined the frequency of ATM loss among tumors with pathogenic germline ATM mutations and genetically unselected primary prostate carcinomas using tissue microarrays (TMAs). Immunostaining results were correlated with targeted somatic genomic sequencing and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: ATM protein loss was found in 13% (7/52) of primary Gleason pattern 5 cancers with available sequencing data and was 100% sensitive for biallelic ATM inactivation. In a separate cohort with pathogenic germline ATM mutations, 74% (14/19) had ATM protein loss of which 70% (7/10) of evaluable cases had genomic evidence of biallelic inactivation, compared with zero of four of cases with intact ATM expression. By TMA screening, ATM loss was identified in 3% (25/831) of evaluable primary tumors, more commonly in grade group 5 (17/181; 9%) compared with all other grades (8/650; 1%; P < 0.0001). Of those with available sequencing, 80% (4/5) with homogeneous ATM protein loss and 50% (6/12) with heterogeneous ATM protein loss had detectable pathogenic ATM alterations. In surgically treated patients, ATM loss was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes in random-effects Cox models after adjusting for clinicopathologic variables. CONCLUSIONS: ATM loss is enriched among high-grade prostate cancers. Optimal evaluation of ATM status requires both genomic and IHC studies and will guide development of molecularly targeted therapies.

Association of a Polygenic Risk Score With Breast Cancer Among Women Carriers of High- and Moderate-Risk Breast Cancer Genes.

Importance: To date, few studies have examined the extent to which polygenic single-nucleotide variation (SNV) (formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism) scores modify risk for carriers of pathogenic variants (PVs) in breast cancer susceptibility genes. In previous reports, polygenic risk modification was reduced for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers compared with noncarriers, but limited information is available for carriers of CHEK2, ATM, or PALB2 PVs. Objective: To examine an 86-SNV polygenic risk score (PRS) for BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, ATM, and PALB2 PV carriers. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective case-control study using data on 150 962 women tested with a multigene hereditary cancer panel between July 19, 2016, and January 11, 2019, was conducted in a commercial testing laboratory. Participants included women of European ancestry between the ages of 18 and 84 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association of the 86-SNV score with invasive breast cancer after adjusting for age, ancestry, and personal and/or family cancer history. Effect sizes, expressed as standardized odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs, were assessed for carriers of PVs in each gene as well as for noncarriers. Results: The median age at hereditary cancer testing of the population was 48 years (range, 18-84 years); there were 141 160 noncarriers in addition to carriers of BRCA1 (n = 2249), BRCA2 (n = 2638), CHEK2 (n = 2564), ATM (n = 1445), and PALB2 (n = 906) PVs included in the analysis. The 86-SNV score was associated with breast cancer risk in each of the carrier populations (P < 1 × 10-4). Stratification was more pronounced for noncarriers (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.45-1.49) and CHEK2 PV carriers (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.36-1.64) than for carriers of BRCA1 (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10-1.32) or BRCA2 (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.12-1.34) PVs. Odds ratios for ATM (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.21-1.55) and PALB2 (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.16-1.55) PV carrier populations were intermediate between those for BRCA1/2 and CHEK2 noncarriers. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the 86-SNV score was associated with modified risk for carriers of BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, ATM, and PALB2 PVs. This finding supports previous reports of reduced PRS stratification for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers compared with noncarriers. Modification of risk in CHEK2 carriers associated with the 86-SNV score appeared to be similar to that observed in women without a PV. Larger studies are needed to provide more refined estimates of polygenic modification of risk for women with PVs in other moderate-penetrance genes.

Evaluation of the 12-Gene Molecular Score and the 21-Gene Recurrence Score as Predictors of Response to Neo-adjuvant Chemotherapy in Estrogen Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (NaCT) facilitates complete surgical resection in locally advanced breast cancer. Due to its association with improved outcome, complete pathologic response (pCR) to neo-adjuvant treatment has been accepted as a surrogate for long-term outcome in clinical trials of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive, triple-negative, or luminal B breast cancer patients. In contrast, NaCT is effective in only ~ 7-10% of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative disease. Response biomarkers would enable such patients to be selected for NaCT. METHODS: Two commercially available breast cancer prognostic signatures [12-gene molecular score (MS) and the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS)] were compared in their ability to predict pCR to NaCT in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer in six public RNA expression microarray data sets. Scores were approximated according to published algorithms and analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Expression data were available for 764 ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer samples, including 59 patients with pCR. The two scores were well correlated. Either score was a significant predictor of pCR (12-gene MS p = 9.4 × 10-5; 21-gene RS p = 0.0041). However, in a model containing both scores, the 12-gene MS remained significant (p = 0.0079), while the 21-gene RS did not (p = 0.79). CONCLUSIONS: In this microarray study, two commercial breast cancer prognostic scores were significant predictors of response to NaCT. In direct comparison, the 12-gene MS outperformed the 21-gene RS as a predictive marker for NaCT. Considering pCR as surrogate for improved survival, these results support the ability of both scores to predict chemotherapy sensitivity.

Adjustment of the multi-biomarker disease activity score to account for age, sex and adiposity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate an adjusted score for the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test to account for the effects of age, sex and adiposity in patients with RA. METHODS: Two models were developed to adjust MBDA score for age, sex and adiposity, using either serum leptin concentration or BMI as proxies for adiposity. Two cohorts were studied. A cohort of 325 781 RA patients who had undergone commercial MBDA testing and had data for age, sex and serum leptin concentration was used for both models. A cohort of 1411 patients from five studies/registries with BMI data was used only for the BMI-adjusted MBDA score. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses evaluated the adjusted MBDA scores and conventional clinical measures as predictors of radiographic progression, assessed in terms of modified total Sharp score (ΔmTSS). RESULTS: Two models were developed, based on findings that MBDA score was higher in females than males and increased with age, leptin concentration and BMI. In pairwise regression analyses, the leptin-adjusted (P = 0.00066) and BMI-adjusted (P = 0.0027) MBDA scores were significant independent predictors of ΔmTSS after adjusting for DAS28-CRP, whereas DAS28-CRP was not, after adjusting for leptin-adjusted (P = 0.74) or BMI-adjusted (P = 0.87) MBDA score. Moreover, the leptin-adjusted MBDA score was a significant predictor of ΔmTSS after adjusting for the BMI-adjusted MBDA score (P = 0.025) or the original MBDA score (0.027), whereas the opposite was not true. CONCLUSION: Leptin-adjusted MBDA score significantly adds information to DAS28-CRP and the original MBDA score in predicting radiographic progression. It may offer improved clinical utility for personalized management of RA.

Characterisation of homologous recombination deficiency in paired primary and recurrent high-grade serous ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) is shown to predict response to DNA-damaging therapies in patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC); however, changes in HRD during progression remains unknown. METHODS: HRD scores were evaluated in paired primary and/or recurrent HGSOC samples (N = 107) from 54 patients with adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy. BRCA1/2 mutation, BRCA1 methylation, loss of heterozygosity (LOH), and HRD scores were characterised using tumour DNA-based next-generation sequencing assays. RESULTS: Among 50 evaluable pairs (N = 100 samples), high intra-patient correlation in HRD score was observed (r2 = 0.93). BRCA1/2 mutations, BRCA1/2 LOH, and HRD were maintained between primary and recurrent samples, except for one pair in which a BRCA1 reversion mutation was identified in the recurrent sample. Despite the reversion, both samples were classified as having high HRD scores ( ≥ 42). All samples with BRCA1/2 mutations exhibited high HRD scores; however, high HRD scores were more prevalent than BRCA1/2 mutations (55% vs. 30%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Markers of HRD were maintained between the primary and recurrent samples, regardless of other genomic changes that occurred during recurrence. HRD score/markers in primary tumours may be valuable and adequate for selection of platinum-based therapy and/or poly-ADP-ribose-polymerase (PARP) inhibitors in recurrent HGSOC.

Candidate biomarkers of PARP inhibitor sensitivity in ovarian cancer beyond the BRCA genes.

BACKGROUND: Olaparib (Lynparza™) is a PARP inhibitor approved for advanced BRCA-mutated (BRCAm) ovarian cancer. PARP inhibitors may benefit patients whose tumours are dysfunctional in DNA repair mechanisms unrelated to BRCA1/2. We report exploratory analyses, including the long-term outcome of candidate biomarkers of sensitivity to olaparib in BRCA wild-type (BRCAwt) tumours. METHODS: Tumour samples from an olaparib maintenance monotherapy trial (Study 19, D0810C00019; NCT00753545) were analysed. Analyses included classification of mutations in genes involved in homologous recombination repair (HRR), BRCA1 promoter methylation status, measurement of BRCA1 protein and Myriad HRD score. RESULTS: Patients with BRCAm tumours gained most benefit from olaparib; a similar treatment benefit was also observed in 21/95 patients whose tumours were BRCAwt but had loss-of-function HRR mutations compared to patients with no detectable HRR mutations (58/95). A higher median Myriad MyChoice® HRD score was observed in BRCAm and BRCAwt tumours with BRCA1 methylation. Patients without BRCAm tumours derived benefit from olaparib treatment vs placebo although to a lesser extent than BRCAm patients. CONCLUSIONS: Ovarian cancer patients with tumours harbouring loss-of-function mutations in HRR genes other than BRCA1/2 may constitute a small, molecularly identifiable and clinically relevant population who derive treatment benefit from olaparib similar to patients with BRCAm.

Biomarker Assessment of HR Deficiency, Tumor BRCA1/2 Mutations, and CCNE1 Copy Number in Ovarian Cancer: Associations with Clinical Outcome Following Platinum Monotherapy.

The current study evaluated three biomarkers [homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), tumor BRCA1/2 (tBRCA) mutations, and CCNE1 copy-number variation (CNV)] in ovarian tumors from patients enrolled on the SCOTROC4 clinical trial for associations with outcome following carboplatin monotherapy. Ovarian tumors (n = 250), with high-grade serous (HGSOC) subgroup analysis (n = 179) were classified as HRD positive (HRD score ≥42 or tBRCA mutation) and as CCNE1 amplification positive (CCNE1 CNV score >2.4). Seventy-four (30%) tumors were HRD positive, including 34 (14%) with tBRCA mutations. Forty-seven (19%) were CCNE1 amplification positive, all of which were tBRCA wild-type. HRD and tBRCA, but not CCNE1 amplification, were significantly associated with CA125 complete response in the entire cohort (HRD, P = 0.00015; tBRCA P = 0.0096), and the HGSOC subgroup (HRD, P = 0.0016; tBRCA P = 0.032). HRD and lack of CCNE1 amplification were associated with improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the full cohort and HGSOC subgroup (HRD, P = 0.00021; CCNE1 status P = 0.038). HRD remained significant for OS and PFS after adjusting for clinical factors, while CCNE1 status only remained significant for PFS. Patients with HRD-positive tumors had greater PFS and OS benefit from platinum dose intensification than HRD-negative tumors (P = 0.049 and P = 0.035, respectively). An alternative exploratory HRD score threshold (≥33 or tBRCA mutation) was also significantly associated with both PFS and OS in the HGSOC subset.Implications: HRD, tumor BRCA1/2 mutations, and absence of CCNE1 amplification are associated with improved survival of ovarian cancer patients treated with platinum monotherapy and HRD-positive patients may benefit from platinum dose intensification. Mol Cancer Res; 16(7); 1103-11. ©2018 AACR.