Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests.

The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south-eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process-based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (-12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (-18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was -6.6% across 48-years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Long-term hydrological response emerges from forest self-thinning behaviour and tree sapwood allometry.

Fires in forested catchments are of great concern to catchment managers due to their potential effect on water yield. Among other factors such as meteorological conditions and topography, dominant vegetation and its regeneration traits can play a key role in controlling the variability in the type and recovery-time of the hydrological response between forested catchments after stand-replacing fires. In temperate South-Eastern Australia, a long-term reduction in streamflow from catchments dominated by regenerating tall-wet Eucalyptus obligate seeder forests was observed, which has substantial implications for Melbourne's water supply. While the unusual hydrological response has been attributed to the higher water-use of the regrowth forests, the dominant underlying mechanism has not yet been identified. Here we show analytically and with a closed-form solution that this streamflow pattern can emerge from forest dynamics, namely the combination of growth and tree mortality as constrained by the self-thinning line (STL) and sapwood allometry of the dominant overstory tree species under non-limiting rainfall regimes. A sensitivity analysis shows that observed variations in the relative streamflow anomaly trend can be explained by parameters controlling: (i) the shape of the STL; (ii) regeneration success; (iii) radial tree growth rate; and (iv) fire severity. We conclude that the observed variation in long-term post-disturbance streamflow behaviour might have resulted from different trajectories of forest dynamics and suggest that to minimize uncertainty in future water-balance predictions, eco-hydrological models for even aged forests include a mechanistic representation of stand demography processes that are constrained by forest inventory data.

Spatio-temporal transpiration patterns reflect vegetation structure in complex upland terrain.

Topography exerts control on eco-hydrologic processes via alteration of energy inputs due to slope angle and orientation. Further, water availability varies with drainage position in response to topographic water redistribution and the catena effect on soil depth and thus soil water storage capacity. Our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of transpiration patterns in complex terrain is still limited by lacking knowledge of how systematic interactions of energy and moisture patterns shape ecosystem state and water fluxes and adaptation of the vegetation to these patterns. To untangle the effects of slope orientation and hillslope position on forest structure and transpiration patterns, we measured forest structure, sap flux, soil moisture, throughfall and incoming shortwave radiation along two downslope transects in a forested head water catchment in south-east Australia. Our plot locations controlled for three systematically varying drainage position levels (topographic wetness index: 5.0, 6.5 and 8.0) and two levels of energy input (aridity index: 1.2 and 1.8). Vegetation patterns were generally stronger related to drainage position than slope orientation, whereas sap velocity variations were less pronounced. However, in combination with stand sapwood area, consistent spatio-temporal transpiration patterns emerged in relation to landscape position, where slope orientation was the primary and drainage position the secondary controlling factor. On short temporal scales, radiation and vapor pressure deficit were most important in regulating transpiration rates, whereas soil water limitation only occurred on shallow soils during summer. The importance of stand structural parameters increased on longer time scales, indicating optimization of vegetation in response to the long-term hydro-climatic conditions at a given landscape position. Thus, vegetation patterns can be conceptualized as a 'time-integrated' predictor variable that captures large fractions of other factors contributing to transpiration patterns.

Structural adjustments in resprouting trees drive differences in post-fire transpiration.

Following disturbance many woody species are capable of resprouting new foliage, resulting in a reduced leaf-to-sapwood area ratio and altered canopy structure. We hypothesized that such changes would promote adjustments in leaf physiology, resulting in higher rates of transpiration per unit leaf area, consistent with the mechanistic framework proposed by Whitehead et al. (Whitehead D, Jarvis PG, Waring RH (1984) Stomatal conductance, transpiration and resistance to water uptake in a Pinus sylvestris spacing experiment. Can J For Res 14:692-700). We tested this in Eucalyptus obliqua L'Hér following a wildfire by comparing trees with unburnt canopies with trees that had been subject to 100% canopy scorch and were recovering their leaf area via resprouting. In resprouting trees, foliage was distributed along the trunk and on lateral branches, resulting in shorter hydraulic path lengths. We evaluated measurements of whole-tree transpiration and structural and physiological traits expected to drive any changes in transpiration. We used these structural and physiological measurements to parameterize the Whitehead et al. equation, and found that the expected ratio of transpiration per unit leaf area between resprouting and unburnt trees was 3.41. This is similar to the observed ratio of transpiration per unit leaf area, measured from sapflow observations, which was 2.89 (i.e., resprouting trees had 188% higher transpiration per unit leaf area). Foliage at low heights (<2 m) was found to be significantly different to foliage in the tree crown (14-18 m) in a number of traits, including higher specific leaf area, midday leaf water potential and higher rates of stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. We conclude that these post-fire adjustments in resprouting trees help to drive increased stomatal conductance and hydraulic efficiency, promoting the rapid return of tree-scale transpiration towards pre-disturbance levels. These transient patterns in canopy transpiration have important implications for modelling stand-level water fluxes in forests capable of resprouting, which is frequently done on the basis of the leaf area index.