ICE Detainer Requests Were Associated With Lower Medicaid And SNAP Enrollment Among Eligible Adults, 2011-19.

Legislative policies that criminalize immigrants have a "chilling effect" on public program participation among eligible immigrants. However, little is known about the effect of local enforcement actions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In this study, we linked county-level data on the number of detainer requests (or immigration holds) issued by ICE to individual-level data from the 2011, 2016, and 2019 American Community Surveys. We fit adjusted logistic regression models to assess the association between detainer requests and enrollment in Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) among those likely eligible for each program in US-born versus immigrant households. A higher volume of detainer requests was associated with lower enrollment in both Medicaid and SNAP, particularly among adults in households with at least one immigrant relative to US-born households. We observed the most pronounced effects in 2011 and 2019.

Detainer Requests Issued by ICE and Fair/Poor Self-Rated Health among Latines in the U.S., 2017-2020.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) issues detainer requests to local law enforcement agencies to hold detainees suspected of being undocumented immigrants until they can be transferred into ICE custody. We examined the association between area-level detainer requests and self-rated health among Latine adults. We linked health data from Latine adults included in the 2017-2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n = 69,386) to detainer requests per 1,000 non-citizens in core-based statistical areas, (n = 152 across 49 states). We fit logistic regression models of self-rated fair/poor health on detainer requests, adjusted for individual- and area-level confounders. In adjusted analyses, we found that Latine adults living in areas with the highest quartile of requests had 24% higher odds of fair/poor health (OR 1.24, 95% CI = 1.05,1.47) relative to those in the lowest quartile. Local law enforcement agencies should limit cooperation with federal immigrant agencies to protect the health of Latine communities.

Participatory Systems Thinking to Elucidate Drivers of Food Access and Diet Disparities among Minoritized Urban Populations.

The purpose of this study was to use participatory systems thinking to develop a dynamic conceptual framework of racial/ethnic and other intersecting disparities (e.g., income) in food access and diet in Philadelphia and to identify policy levers to address these disparities. We conducted three group model building workshops, each consisting of a series of scripted activities. Key artifacts or outputs included qualitative system maps, or causal loop diagrams, identifying the variables, relationships, and feedback loops that drive diet disparities in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We used semi-structured methods informed by inductive thematic analysis and network measures to synthesize findings into a single causal loop diagram. There were twenty-nine participants with differing vantages and expertise in Philadelphia's food system, broadly representing the policy, community, and research domains. In the synthesis model, participants identified 14 reinforcing feedback loops and one balancing feedback loop that drive diet and food access disparities in Philadelphia. The most highly connected variables were upstream factors, including those related to racism (e.g., residential segregation) and community power (e.g., community land control). Consistent with existing frameworks, addressing disparities will require a focus on upstream social determinants. However, existing frameworks should be adapted to emphasize and disrupt the interdependent, reinforcing feedback loops that maintain and exacerbate disparities in fundamental social causes. Our findings suggest that promising policies include those that empower minoritized communities, address socioeconomic inequities, improve community land control, and increase access to affordable, healthy, and culturally meaningful foods.

Trends in the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from food and beverage purchases in Mexico: 1989-2020.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the trends in dietary GHGE considering the social patterning is critical for understanding the role that food systems have played and will play in global emissions in countries of the global south. Our aim is to describe dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) trends (overall and by food group) using data from household food purchase surveys from 1989 to 2020 in Mexico, overall and by education levels and urbanicity. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from 16 rounds of Mexico's National Income and Expenditure Survey, a nationally representative survey. The sample size ranged from 11,051 in 1989 to 88,398 in 2020. We estimated the mean total GHGE per adult-equivalent per day (kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d) for every survey year. Then, we estimated the relative GHGE contribution by food group for each household. These same analyses were conducted stratifying by education and urbanicity. RESULTS: The mean total GHGE increased from 3.70 (95%CI: 3.57, 3.82) to 4.90 (95% CI 4.62, 5.18) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d between 1989 and 2014 and stayed stable between 4.63 (95% CI: 4.53, 4.72) and 4.89 (95% CI: 4.81, 4.96) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d from 2016 onwards. In 1989, beef (19.89%, 95% CI: 19.18, 20.59), dairy (16.87%, 95% CI: 16.30, 17.42)), corn (9.61%, 95% CI: 9.00, 10.22), legumes (7.03%, 95% CI: 6.59, 7.46), and beverages (6.99%, 95% CI: 6.66, 7.32) had the highest relative contribution to food GHGE; by 2020, beef was the top contributor (17.68%, 95%CI: 17.46, 17.89) followed by fast food (14.17%, 95% CI: 13.90, 14.43), dairy (11.21%, 95%CI: 11.06, 11.36), beverages (10.09%, 95%CI: 9.94, 10.23), and chicken (10.04%, 95%CI: 9.90, 10.17). Households with higher education levels and those in more urbanized areas contributed more to dietary GHGE across the full period. However, households with lower education levels and those in rural areas had the highest increase in these emissions from 1989 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide insights into the food groups in which the 2023 Mexican Dietary Guidelines may require to focus on improving human and planetary health.

Impact of county and state immigration policies on immigrant household enrollment in the supplemental nutrition assistance program.

Introduction: Low-income immigrants who are eligible to participate in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participate at lower rates compared to non-immigrants. Immigrant households may be more likely to participate in SNAP if they live in areas with policies that integrate them into society and protect them from deportation. Methods: Data on low-income immigrant households came from the 2019 American Community Survey (N = 87,678). The outcome was whether any household member received SNAP in the previous 12 months. Immigrant policy exposures came from two sources: the State Immigration Policy Resource, which includes 18 immigrant criminalizing and integrating policies, and a database that identified 'sanctuary policies' (SP), which we summarized at the county level. Multivariable logistic regression adjusted for person/household-level and area-level confounders. Results: Living in a jurisdiction with a SP was associated with 21% higher odds of enrolling in SNAP compared to living in a jurisdiction without a SP (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.21, 95% CI=1.11,1.31). Relative to the least immigrant friendly states, living in the most immigrant-friendly states was associated with 16% higher odds of SNAP enrollment (aOR=1.16, 95%CI=1.06-1.28). When SP and state-level immigrant friendly policy environment were cross-classified, SNAP participation was 23% and 26% higher for those living in jurisdictions with one- and both- exposures, respectively, relative to those with neither (aOR 1.23; CI 1.12,1.36; aOR 1.26; CI 1.15,1.37). Conclusions: Many at high risk of food insecurity - including immigrants and citizens in households with immigrants - are eligible for SNAP but under-enroll. Policies that welcome and safeguard immigrants could reduce under enrollment.

Health Care Access and Utilization and the Latino Health Paradox.

BACKGROUND: The Latino health paradox is the phenomenon whereby recent Latino immigrants have, on average, better health outcomes on some indicators than Latino immigrants who have lived in the United States longer and US-born Latinos and non-Latino Whites. This study examined whether the paradox holds after accounting for health care access and utilization. METHODS: The 2019-2020 National Health Interview Survey data were used. The main predictors included population groups of foreign-born and US-born Latinos (Mexican or non-Mexican) versus US-born non-Latino Whites. Predicted probabilities of health outcomes (self-reported poor/fair health, overweight/obesity, hypertension, coronary heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and depression) were calculated and stratified by length of residence in the United States (<15 or ≥15 years) among foreign-born Latinos and sex (female or male). Multivariable analyses adjusted for having a usual source of care other than the emergency department, health insurance, a doctor visit in the past 12 months, predisposing and enabling factors, and survey year. RESULTS: After adjusting for health care access, utilization, and predisposing and enabling factors, foreign-born Latinos, including those living in the United States ≥15 years, had lower predicted probabilities for most health outcomes than US-born non-Latino Whites, except overweight/obesity and diabetes. US-born Latinos had higher predicted probabilities of overweight/obesity and diabetes and a lower predicted probability of depression than US-born non-Latino Whites. CONCLUSIONS: In this national survey, the Latino health paradox was observed after adjusting for health care access and utilization and predisposing and enabling factors, suggesting that, although these are important factors for good health, they do not necessarily explain the paradox.

Methods and measures to evaluate the impact of participatory model building on public policymakers: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Public policymakers are increasingly engaged in participatory model building processes, such as group model building. Understanding the impacts of policymaker participation in these processes on policymakers is important given that their decisions often have significant influence on the dynamics of complex systems that affect health. Little is known about the extent to which the impacts of participatory model building on public policymakers have been evaluated or the methods and measures used to evaluate these impacts. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review protocol was developed with the objectives of: (1) scoping studies that have evaluated the impacts of facilitated participatory model building processes on public policymakers who participated in these processes; and (2) describing methods and measures used to evaluate impacts and the main findings of these evaluations. The Joanna Briggs Institute's Population, Concept, Context framework was used to formulate the article identification process. Seven electronic databases-MEDLINE (Ovid), ProQuest Health and Medical, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase (Ovid), CINAHL Complete and PsycInfo-will be searched. Identified articles will be screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist for scoping reviews will be used and reported. A data extraction tool will collect information across three domains: study characteristics, methods and measures, and findings. The review will be conducted using Covidence, a systematic review data management platform. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The scoping review produced will generate an overview of how public policymaker engagement in participatory model building processes has been evaluated. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and to communities of practice that convene policymakers in participatory model building processes. This review will not require ethics approval because it is not human subject research.

County- and state-level immigration policies are associated with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation among Latino households.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between county- and state-level immigrant criminalizing and integrating policies and Latino household participation in the largest safety net program against food insecurity in the U.S., the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Our outcome, county-level proportion of SNAP-participating Latino households, and county-level covariates were obtained from the American Community Survey 1-year county files (N = 675 counties) for 13 years (2007-2019). Our exposures were county-level presence of sanctuary policies and a state-level immigrant friendliness score, created based on 19 immigrant criminalizing and integrating state-level policies obtained from the Urban Institute's State Immigration Policies Resource. We classified every county in the sample as 1) sanctuary policy + immigrant friendly state, 2) sanctuary policy + immigrant unfriendly state, 3) no sanctuary policy + immigrant friendly state, and 4) no sanctuary policy + immigrant unfriendly state. Using multivariable generalized linear models that adjusted for poverty levels and other social composition characteristics of counties, we found that county-level SNAP participation among Latino households was 1.1 percentage-point higher in counties with sanctuary policies (B = 1.12, 95%CI = 0.26-1.98), compared to counties with no sanctuary policies, and 1.6 percentage-point higher in counties with sanctuary policies in immigrant friendly states (B = 1.59, 95%CI = 0.33-2.84), compared to counties with no sanctuary policy in immigrant unfriendly states. Local and state immigration policy, even when unrelated to SNAP eligibility, may influence SNAP participation among Latino households. Jurisdictions which lack sanctuary policies or have more criminalizing and less integrating policies should consider adopting targeted outreach strategies to increase SNAP enrollment among Latino households.

Undocumented Latino Immigrants and the Latino Health Paradox.

INTRODUCTION: Despite having worse healthcare access and other social disadvantages, immigrants have, on average, better health outcomes than U.S.-born individuals. For Latino immigrants, this is known as the Latino health paradox. It is unknown whether this phenomenon applies to undocumented immigrants. METHODS: This study used restricted California Health Interview Survey data from 2015 to 2020. Data were analyzed to test the relationships between citizenship/documentation status and physical and mental health among Latinos and U.S.-born Whites. Analyses were stratified by sex (male/female) and length of U.S. residence (<15 years/>= 15 years). RESULTS: Undocumented Latino immigrants had lower predicted probabilities of reporting any health condition, asthma, and serious psychological distress and had a higher probability of overweight/obesity than U.S.-born Whites. Despite having a higher probability of overweight/obesity, undocumented Latino immigrants did not have probabilities of reporting diabetes, high blood pressure, or heart disease different from those of U.S.-born Whites after adjusting for having a usual source of care. Undocumented Latina women had a lower predicted probability of reporting any health condition and a higher predicted probability of overweight/obesity than U.S.-born White women. Undocumented Latino men had a lower predicted probability of reporting serious psychological distress than U.S.-born White men. There were no differences in outcomes when comparing shorter- with longer-duration undocumented Latino immigrants. CONCLUSIONS: This study observed that the Latino health paradox may express patterns for undocumented Latino immigrants that are different from those for other Latino immigrant groups, emphasizing the importance of accounting for documentation status when conducting research on this population.

Use of qualitative systems mapping and causal loop diagrams to understand food environments, diet and obesity: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Food systems can shape dietary behaviour and obesity outcomes in complex ways. Qualitative systems mapping using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) can depict how people understand the complex dynamics, inter-relationships and feedback characteristic of food systems in ways that can support policy planning and action. To date, there has been no attempt to review this literature. The objectives of this review are to scope the extent and nature of studies using qualitative systems mapping to facilitate the development of CLDs by stakeholders to understand food environments, including settings and populations represented, key findings and the methodological processes employed. It also seeks to identify gaps in knowledge and implications for policy and practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol describes a scoping review guided by the Joanna Briggs Institute manual, the framework by Khalil and colleagues and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist reporting guidelines. A search strategy was iteratively developed with two academic librarians and the research team. This strategy will be used to search six databases, including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, EmCare, Web of Science, Scopus and ProQuest Central. Identified citations will be screened by two independent reviewers; first, by title and abstract, and then full-text articles to identify papers eligible for inclusion. The reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews will be searched to identify other papers eligible for inclusion. Two reviewers will extract information from all included studies and summarise the findings descriptively and numerically. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The scoping review will provide an overview of how CLDs developed by stakeholders have been elicited to understand food environments, diet and obesity, the insights gained and how the CLDs have been used. It will also highlight gaps in knowledge and implications for policy and practice. The review will be disseminated through publication in an academic journal and conference presentations.

Differences between integrated and non-integrated plans in Medicare Advantage.

OBJECTIVE: To understand differences in financial performance, quality performance, supplemental benefits provision, and enrollee composition between integrated and non-integrated plans in the Medicare Advantage (MA) program. DATA SOURCES: We used data from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services for 2015-2017. We included 156 integrated MA plans (31 unique contracts) and 2096 non-integrated MA plans (392 unique contracts). STUDY DESIGN: We estimated linear probably models for financial performance, quality performance, supplemental benefits provision, and enrollee composition with state fixed effects and contract random effects. We adjusted for county-level market structure-related factors, cost-related factors, and demand-related factors. Our primary independent variable was an indicator of plan-provider integration. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Integrated MA plans were associated with $19.4 (95% CI: 9.2, 29.7) and $16.6 (95% CI: 10.3, 22.9) higher Part C and Part D monthly premiums, but were associated with higher star quality ratings. There were no significant differences in revenues and plan payments per enrollee between integrated and non-integrated MA plans. Integrated MA plans were associated with $40.5 (95% CI: -54.0, -26.9) lower non-claims costs than non-integrated MA plans. There was limited evidence that integrated MA plans provided more generous supplemental benefits than non-integrated MA plans. Enrollment rates in integrated MA plans were particularly low among socially marginalized groups (3.4 [95% CI: -5.9, -1.0], 4.7 [95% CI: -8.5, -0.9], and 4.4 [95% CI: -6.4, -2.4] percentage points lower among non-Hispanic Black, Medicare-Medicaid dual eligible, and the disabled). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that integrated MA plans may achieve higher efficiency and quality, but these benefits may not be experienced by all beneficiaries due to disparities in enrollment. As these models continue to spread, it is critical to develop policies to ensure that MA enrollees have equal access to integrated plans.

Food and beverage purchases at formal and informal outlets in Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To examine food and beverage purchasing patterns across formal and informal outlets among Mexican households' and explore differences by urbanicity and income. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of households. We calculated the proportion of total food and beverage expenditure in each household by food outlet type overall and by urbanicity and income. We defined informal outlets as those which are not registered or regulated by tax and fiscal laws. Since some of the outlets within community food environments do not fall in clear categories, we defined a continuum from formal to informal outlets, adding mixed outlets as a category. SETTING: Mexico. PARTICIPANTS: Mexican households (n 74 203) from the 2018 National Income and Expenditure Survey. RESULTS: Of the total food and beverage purchases, outlets within the formal food sector (i.e. supermarkets and convenience stores) accounted for 15 % of the purchases, 13 % of purchases occurred in outlets within the informal food sector (i.e. street markets, street vendors and acquaintances) and 70 % in fiscally mixed outlets (i.e. small neighbourhood stores, specialty stores and public markets). Across levels of urbanicity and income, most food and beverage purchases occurred in mixed outlets. Also, purchases in informal and mixed outlets decreased as levels of urbanicity and income increased. In contrast to informal outlets, purchases in formal outlets were most likely from richer households and living in larger sized cities. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding where Mexican households shop for food is relevant to create tailored interventions according to food outlet type, accounting for regulatory and governance structures.

Eviction, post-traumatic stress, and emergency department use among low-income individuals in New Haven, CT.

We sought to examine whether and how landlord-related forced moves (inclusive of, but not limited to, legal eviction) were associated with emergency department (ED) use over time. We used survey data collected between 2017 and 2019 among 283 low-income participants in New Haven, CT to examine whether experiencing a legal eviction or other landlord-related forced move (T0) was associated with increased odds of ED use 6 months (T1) and 12 months (T2) later. We conducted bootstrapped mediation analyses to examine indirect effects of post-traumatic stress symptoms. One-fifth of participants (n = 61) reported a recent forced move at baseline (T0); half of these were legally evicted. Landlord-related forced moves were associated with ED use at T1 (AOR = 2.06, 95 % CI: 1.04-4.06) and T2 (AOR = 3.05, 95 % CI: 1.59-5.88). After adjustment for sociodemographic factors and other health-related confounders, legal eviction was not significantly associated with ED use at T1 (AOR = 1.61, 95 % CI: 0.68-3.81), but was significantly associated with ED use at T2 (AOR = 3.58, 95 % CI: 1.58-8.10). Post-traumatic stress symptoms accounted for 15.1% of forced moves' association with ED use (p <.05). Landlord-related forced moves are positively associated with subsequent ED use, and post-traumatic stress symptoms are one factor that may help explain this association. Structural interventions that promote housing stability are needed to advance health equity, and they may also help to reduce preventable ED use. Such interventions are imperative in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has strained health system capacity and exacerbated housing instability for many low-income renters. Results underscore the relevance of trauma-informed care and integrated care management to clinical practice in emergency settings.

Association of Health Insurance Literacy With Enrollment in Traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage, and Plan Characteristics Within Medicare Advantage.

Importance: Health insurance literacy helps individuals make informed choices. However, evidence suggests that Medicare beneficiaries experience low health insurance literacy, leading to high-cost or poor-quality coverage choices. Objective: To examine how health insurance literacy was associated with coverage choices between traditional Medicare (TM) and Medicare Advantage (MA), as well as within MA. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included 6627 TM and MA enrollees, using data from the 2015-2016 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Data analyses were conducted between May 1 and June 30, 2021. Exposures: Three self-reported measures of health insurance literacy (presence of information to make an informed comparison, ease in reviewing and comparing coverage options, and annual review and comparison of coverage options). Main Outcomes and Measures: Enrollment in TM vs MA and enrollment in an MA plan with different characteristics (star rating, monthly plan premium, in-network maximum out-of-pocket limit, plan type, and provision of supplemental benefits). Results: We included 6627 Medicare beneficiaries (3578 women [54.0%]; mean [SD] age, 75.13 [7.12] years). A total of 77 individuals were Asian (1.2%), 696 were Black (10.5%), 488 were Hispanic (7.4%), 5277 were non-Hispanic White (79.6%), and 225 (3.4%) were single races not of Hispanic origin (including American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian) or were 2 or more races. Medicare Advantage enrollment was higher among individuals with higher health insurance literacy than those with lower health insurance literacy, especially for those who reviewed or compared coverage options annually than among those who did not (38.0%; 95% CI, 36.0%-40.1% vs 27.8%; 95% CI, 25.8%-29.7%). Among MA beneficiaries, those who reviewed or compared coverage options annually were more likely to enroll in plans with 4 to 4.5 stars and plans with monthly premiums of $1 to $50 by 4.6 percentage points (95% CI, 0.1-9.2 percentage points) and 4.8 percentage points (95% CI, 0.6-9.0 percentage points), respectively. However, enrollment in plans with 5 stars was 3.8 percentage points lower (95% CI, -5.8 to -1.9 percentage points) among individuals who reviewed or compared coverage options annually than among those who did not. Among individuals with low socioeconomic status, the likelihood of reviewing or comparing coverage options annually was lower for those with Medicare and Medicaid dual eligibility than for those without it (odds ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63-0.99). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that higher health insurance literacy-particularly, annual review and comparison of coverage choices-is associated with higher MA enrollment and choice of a particular MA plan. Policy makers should develop programs to encourage frequent review and comparison of coverage options for informed decision making.

Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption. DESIGN: We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing. SETTING: We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the 'social transition' in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile. PARTICIPANTS: A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico. RESULTS: A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing.

Reply to Vale et al. Comment on "Zhong et al. Sugar-Sweetened and Diet Beverage Consumption in Philadelphia One Year after the Beverage Tax. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 1336".

Thank you for the opportunity to respond to the recent letter to the editor regarding our paper "Sugar-Sweetened and Diet Beverage Consumption in Philadelphia One Year after the Beverage Tax" [...].

Using cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis.

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis leverages expert knowledge pertaining to the nature and strength of relationships between components of a system to identify the most plausible future 'scenarios' of the system. These scenarios, also referred to as 'storylines', provide qualitative insights into how the state of one factor can either promote or restrict the future state of one or multiple other factors in the system. This paper presents a novel, visually oriented questionnaire developed to elicit expert knowledge about the relationships between key factors in a system, for the purpose of CIB analysis. The questionnaire requires experts to make selections from a series of standardized cause-effect graphical profiles that depict a range of linear and non-linear relationships between factor pairs. The questionnaire and the process of translating the graphical selections into data that can be used for CIB analysis is described using an applied example which focuses on urban health in Latin American cities.

Care for food-insecure enrollees in Medicare Advantage vs traditional Medicare.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether enrollment in Medicare Advantage (MA) and fee-for-service traditional Medicare (TM) is differential by food insecurity and then examine differences in health care utilization, financial burden, care satisfaction, and health status between food-insecure enrollees in MA and TM and between food-secure enrollees in MA and TM. STUDY DESIGN: We employed a retrospective cohort study design. Using the 2015-2016 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, we identified the following 4 mutually exclusive groups: food-insecure enrollees in MA, food-insecure enrollees in TM, food-secure enrollees in MA, and food-secure enrollees in TM. METHODS: We used an instrumental variable approach to address endogenous choice between MA and TM. Using a 2-stage least squares regression model, we estimated the adjusted outcomes for each group and differences in the adjusted outcomes between food-insecure enrollees in MA and TM and between food-secure enrollees in MA and TM. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in enrollment between MA and TM by food insecurity status. Compared with food-insecure enrollees in TM, food-insecure enrollees in MA had significantly lower health care utilization and financial burden. A similar pattern was observed among food-secure enrollees, but the difference in health care utilization was greater between food-insecure enrollees in MA and TM than between food-secure enrollees in MA and TM. There were no significant differences in care satisfaction and health status between MA and TM. However, food insecurity status did not improve in MA and TM enrollees over time. CONCLUSIONS: MA may deliver care more efficiently to food-insecure beneficiaries than TM, but it is not better at reducing food insecurity.

From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America.

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants' perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, 'healthy' scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of 'healthy' scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.