Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation and Health Care Costs in Older Community-Dwelling Adults: Importance of Functional Impairment and Frailty.

BACKGROUND: Low neighborhood socioeconomic status is associated with adverse health outcomes, but its association with health care costs in older adults is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association of neighborhood Area Deprivation Index (ADI) with total, inpatient, outpatient, skilled nursing facility (SNF), and home health care (HHC) costs among older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries, and determine whether these associations are explained by multimorbidity, phenotypic frailty, or functional impairments. DESIGN: Four prospective cohort studies linked with each other and with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (mean age 79.2 years, 52.9% female). MAIN MEASURES: ADI of participant residence census tract, Hierarchical Conditions Category multimorbidity score, self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing four activities of daily living), and frailty phenotype. Total, inpatient, outpatient, post-acute SNF, and HHC costs (US 2020 dollars) for 36 months after the index examination. KEY RESULTS: Mean incremental annualized total health care costs adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex increased with ADI ($3317 [95% CI 1274 to 5360] for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile, and overall p-value for ADI variable 0.009). The incremental cost for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile was increasingly attenuated after separate adjustment for multimorbidity ($2407 [95% CI 416 to 4398], overall ADI p-value 0.066), frailty phenotype ($1962 [95% CI 11 to 3913], overall ADI p-value 0.22), or functional impairments ($1246 [95% CI -706 to 3198], overall ADI p-value 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Total health care costs are higher for older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries residing in the most socioeconomically deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas. This association was not significant after accounting for the higher prevalence of phenotypic frailty and functional impairments among residents of socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods.

Estimating the Effect of Radical Prostatectomy: Combining Data From the SPCG4 and PIVOT Randomized Trials With Contemporary Cohorts.

PURPOSE: Two randomized trials (SPCG4 and PIVOT) have compared surgery to conservative management for localized prostate cancer. The applicability of these trials to contemporary practice remains uncertain. We aimed to develop an individualized prediction model for prostate cancer mortality comparing immediate surgery at a high-volume center to active surveillance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We determined whether the relative risk of prostate cancer mortality with surgery vs observation varied by baseline risk. We then used various estimates of relative risk to estimate 15-year mortality with and without surgery using, as a predictor, risk of biochemical recurrence calculated from a model. RESULTS: We saw no evidence that relative risk varied by baseline risk, supporting the use of a constant relative risk. Compared with observation, surgery was associated with negligible benefit for patients with Grade Group (GG) 1 disease (0.2% mortality reduction at 15 years) and small benefit for patients with GG2 with lower PSA and stage (≤5% mortality reduction). Benefit was greater (6%-9%) for patients with GG3 or GG4 though still modest, but effect estimates varied widely depending on choice of hazard ratio for surgery (6%-36% absolute risk reduction). CONCLUSIONS: Surgery should be avoided for men with low-risk (GG1) prostate cancer and for many men with GG2 disease. Surgical benefits are greater in men with higher-risk disease. Integration of findings with a life expectancy model will allow patients to make informed treatment decisions given their oncologic risk, risk of death from other causes, and estimated effects of surgery.

Associations of empirically derived dietary patterns and cognitive performance in older men: Results of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine associations between empirically derived dietary pattern scores and cognition, as well as risk of cognitive decline, over an average of 4.6 (± 0.3) years in older men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis was conducted as part of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) prospective cohort study. Diet was assessed at Visit 1 (3/2000-4/2002) by food frequency questionnaire, and dietary patterns (Western and Prudent) were derived by factor analysis. The analytic cohort comprised 4231 community-dwelling American men who were aged 65 years or more. Cognitive function was assessed with the Modified Mini-Mental State exam (3MS) and the Trails B test at Visit 1 and at Visit 2 (3/2005-5/2006). Associations between dietary pattern score and cognition and risk of cognitive decline were estimated using mixed effects regression models. Model 1 was adjusted for age, clinic site and total energy intake (TEI). Model 2 was further adjusted for calcium and vitamin D supplement use, body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension (Western diet group) and education, calcium and vitamin D supplement use, depression, BMI, physical activity, smoking and stroke (Prudent diet group). RESULTS: Adherence to the Western dietary pattern was associated with higher 3MS scores and shorter Trails B test time at Visit 1 in Model 2. Adherence to the Prudent dietary pattern was associated with higher 3MS scores in Model 1 but not Model 2. There were no independent associations between dietary pattern scores and risk of cognitive decline 4.6 (± 0.3) years later at Visit 2. CONCLUSION: The results do not support a robust protective effect of the Prudent dietary pattern on cognition in the MrOS cohort. Associations between the Western dietary pattern and better cognitive scores should be interpreted with caution. Further research is needed to understand the complex interactions between dietary patterns and cognition in older men.

Hip Fracture Risk Assessment Tools for Adults Aged 80 Years and Older.

Importance: While adults aged 80 years and older account for 70% of hip fractures in the US, performance of fracture risk assessment tools in this population is uncertain. Objective: To compare performance of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator, and femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD) alone in 5-year hip fracture prediction. Design, Setting and Participants: Prognostic analysis of 3 prospective cohort studies including participants attending an index examination (1997 to 2016) at age 80 years or older. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to April 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants contacted every 4 or 6 months after index examination to ascertain incident hip fractures and vital status. Predicted 5-year hip fracture probabilities calculated using FRAX and Garvan models incorporating FNBMD and FNBMD alone. Model discrimination assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model calibration assessed by comparing observed vs predicted hip fracture probabilities within predicted risk quintiles. Results: A total of 8890 participants were included, with a mean (SD) age at index examination of 82.6 (2.7) years; 4906 participants (55.2%) were women, 866 (9.7%) were Black, 7836 (88.1%) were White, and 188 (2.1%) were other races and ethnicities. During 5-year follow-up, 321 women (6.5%) and 123 men (3.1%) experienced a hip fracture; 818 women (16.7%) and 921 men (23.1%) died before hip fracture. Among women, AUC was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67-0.72) for FRAX, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for Garvan, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) for FNBMD alone (FNBMD superior to FRAX, P = .01; and Garvan, P = .01). Among men, AUC was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.75) for FRAX, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) for Garvan, and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81) for FNBMD alone (P < .001 Garvan and FNBMD alone superior to FRAX). Among both sexes, Garvan greatly overestimated hip fracture risk among individuals in upper quintiles of predicted risk, while FRAX modestly underestimated risk among those in intermediate quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of adults aged 80 years and older, FRAX and Garvan tools incorporating FNBMD compared with FNBMD alone did not improve 5-year hip fracture discrimination. FRAX modestly underpredicted observed hip fracture probability in intermediate-risk individuals. Garvan markedly overpredicted observed hip fracture probability in high-risk individuals. Until better prediction tools are available, clinicians should prioritize consideration of hip BMD, life expectancy, and patient preferences in decision-making regarding drug treatment initiation for hip fracture prevention in late-life adults.

The Mediating Role of Kynurenine Pathway Metabolites on the Relationship Between Inflammation and Muscle Mass in Oldest-Old Men.

Tryptophan (TRP) metabolites along the kynurenine (KYN) pathway (KP) have been found to influence muscle. Proinflammatory cytokines are known to stimulate the degradation of TRP down the KP. Given that both inflammation and KP metabolites have been connected with loss of muscle, we assessed the potential mediating role of KP metabolites on inflammation and muscle mass in older men. Five hundred and five men (85.0 ±â€…4.2 years) from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men cohort study with measured D3-creatine dilution (D3Cr) muscle mass, KP metabolites, and inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], alpha-1-acid glycoprotein [AGP] and a subsample [n = 305] with interleukin [IL-6, IL-1ß, IL-17A] and tumor necrosis factor-α [TNF-α]) were included in the analysis. KP metabolites and inflammatory markers were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and immunoassays, respectively. 23%-92% of the inverse relationship between inflammatory markers and D3Cr muscle mass was mediated by KP metabolites (indirect effect p < .05). 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid (3-HAA), quinolinic acid (QA), TRP, xanthurenic acid (XA), KYN/TRP, 3-hydroxykynurenine (3-HK)/3-HAA, QA/3-HAA, and nicotinamide (NAM)/QA mediated the AGP relationship. 3-HAA, QA, KYN/TRP, 3-HK/XA, HKr ratio, 3-HK/3-HAA, QA/3-HAA, and NAM/QA mediated the CRP. KYN/TRP, 3-HK/XA, and NAM/QA explained the relationship for IL-6 and 3-HK/XA and QA/3-HAA for TNF-α. No mediation effect was observed for the other cytokines (indirect effect p > .05). KP metabolites, particularly higher ratios of KYN/TRP, 3-HK/XA, 3-HK/3-HAA, QA/3-HAA, and a lower ratio of NAM/QA, mediated the relationship between inflammation and low muscle mass. Our preliminary cross-sectional data suggest that interventions to alter D3Cr muscle mass may focus on KP metabolites rather than inflammation per se.

Replacing sedentary time for physical activity: Does intensity matter for body composition in oldest-old adults?

To assess the independent and combined relationships among objectively measured sedentary time (ST), light intensity PA (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA) with muscle mass and fat mass (FM) and how theoretical displacement of these inter-dependent behaviours relates to body composition in oldest-old men. A total of 1046 men participating in the year 14 visit of the prospective Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) cohort study with complete data for accelerometry, dual x-ray absorptiometry, and deuterated creatine dilution (D3Cr) muscle mass were included in the analysis (84.0 ± 3.8 yrs.). Single, partition, and isotemporal substitution models were used to assess the interrelationships between PA intensities and ST with body composition measures, while controlling for relevant confounders. Replacing 30-min of ST with 30-min of MVPA was associated with lower FM (ß =-0.17, p < 0.001) and higher D3Cr muscle mass, although this was of borderline significance (ß = 0.07, p = 0.05). Replacing 30-min of ST for LPA was associated with lower FM (ß =-0.15, p < 0.001), but there was no effect on D3Cr muscle mass (p > 0.05). Exchanging ST with any intensity of PA is associated with benefits for FM in oldest-old adult men, although substitution with MVPA may be more beneficial than LPA for maintaining/improving skeletal muscle mass.

Newer Pharmacologic Treatments in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: Newer diabetes medications may have beneficial effects on mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, and renal outcomes. PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness, comparative effectiveness, and harms of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP1) agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors, and long-acting insulins as monotherapy or combination therapy in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published from 2010 through January 2023. STUDY SELECTION: RCTs lasting at least 52 weeks that included at least 500 adults with T2DM receiving eligible medications and reported any outcomes of interest. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were abstracted by 1 reviewer and verified by a second. Independent, dual assessments of risk of bias and certainty of evidence (CoE) were done. DATA SYNTHESIS: A total of 130 publications from 84 RCTs were identified. CoE was appraised using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) criteria for direct, indirect, and network meta-analysis (NMA); the highest CoE was reported. Compared with usual care, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (high CoE) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (moderate to high CoE), SGLT2 inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure hospitalizations and GLP1 agonists reduce stroke (high CoE), and SGLT2 inhibitors reduce serious adverse events and severe hypoglycemia (high CoE). The threshold for minimally important differences, which was predefined with the American College of Physicians Clinical Guidelines Committee, was not met for these outcomes. Compared with usual care, insulin, tirzepatide, and DPP4 inhibitors do not reduce all-cause mortality (low to high CoE). Compared with insulin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (low to moderate CoE). Compared with DPP4 inhibitors, GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (moderate CoE). Compared with DPP4 inhibitors and sulfonylurea (SU), SGLT2 inhibitors reduce MACE (moderate to high CoE). Compared with SU and insulin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce severe hypoglycemia (low to high CoE). LIMITATIONS: Infrequent direct comparisons between drugs of interest; sparse data for NMA on most outcomes; possible incoherence due to differences in baseline patient characteristics and usual care; insufficient data on predefined subgroups, including demographic subgroups, patients with prior cardiovascular disease, and treatment-naive persons. CONCLUSION: In adults with T2DM, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists (but not DPP4 inhibitors, insulin, or tirzepatide) reduce all-cause mortality and MACE compared with usual care. SGLT2 inhibitors reduce CKD progression and heart failure hospitalization and GLP1 agonists reduce stroke compared with usual care. Serious adverse events and severe hypoglycemia are less frequent with SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists than with insulin or SU. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American College of Physicians. (PROSPERO: CRD42022322129).

Cost-Effectiveness of Newer Pharmacologic Treatments in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, costs of antidiabetes medications exceed $327 billion. PURPOSE: To systematically review cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of newer antidiabetes medications for type 2 diabetes. DATA SOURCES: Bibliographic databases from 1 January 2010 through 13 July 2023, limited to English. STUDY SELECTION: Nonindustry-funded CEAs, done from a U.S. perspective that estimated cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for newer antidiabetic medications. Two reviewers screened the literature; disagreements were resolved with a third reviewer. DATA EXTRACTION: Cost-effectiveness analyses were reviewed for treatment comparisons, model inputs, and outcomes. Risk of bias (RoB) of the CEAs was assessed using Drummond criteria and certainty of evidence (CoE) was assessed using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluations). Certainty of evidence was determined using cost per QALY thresholds predetermined by the American College of Physicians Clinical Guidelines Committee; low (>$150 000), intermediate ($50 to $150 000), or high (<$50 000) value per QALY compared with the alternative. DATA SYNTHESIS: Nine CEAs were eligible (2 low, 1 high, and 6 some concerns RoB), evaluating glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP1a), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide agonist (GIP/GLP1a), and insulin. Comparators were metformin, sulfonylureas, neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin, and others. Compared with metformin, GLP1a and SGLT2i are low value as first-line therapy (high CoE) but may be of intermediate value when added to metformin or background therapy compared with adding nothing (low CoE). Insulin analogues may be similarly effective but more expensive than NPH insulin (low CoE). The GIP/GLP1a value is uncertain (insufficient CoE). LIMITATIONS: Cost-effectiveness analyses varied in methodological approach, assumptions, and drug comparisons. Risk of bias and GRADE method for CEAs are not well established. CONCLUSION: Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists and SGLT2i are of low value as first-line therapy but may be of intermediate value when added to metformin or other background therapy compared with adding nothing. Other drugs and comparisons are of low or uncertain value. Results are sensitive to drug effectiveness and cost assumptions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American College of Physicians. (PROSPERO: CRD42022382315).

The American Society for Bone and Mineral Research Task Force on clinical algorithms for fracture risk report.

Using race and ethnicity in clinical algorithms potentially contributes to health inequities. The American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) Professional Practice Committee convened the ASBMR Task Force on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk to determine the impact of race and ethnicity adjustment in the US Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (US-FRAX). The Task Force engaged the University of Minnesota Evidence-based Practice Core to conduct a systematic review investigating the performance of US-FRAX for predicting incident fractures over 10 years in Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White individuals. Six studies from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) were eligible; cohorts only included women and were predominantly White (WHI > 80% and SOF > 99%), data were not consistently stratified by race and ethnicity, and when stratified there were far fewer fractures in Black and Hispanic women vs White women rendering area under the curve (AUC) estimates less stable. In the younger WHI cohort (n = 64 739), US-FRAX without bone mineral density (BMD) had limited discrimination for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (AUC 0.53 (Black), 0.57 (Hispanic), and 0.57 (White)); somewhat better discrimination for hip fracture in White women only (AUC 0.54 (Black), 0.53 (Hispanic), and 0.66 (White)). In a subset of the older WHI cohort (n = 23 918), US-FRAX without BMD overestimated MOF. The Task Force concluded that there is little justification for estimating fracture risk while incorporating race and ethnicity adjustments and recommends that fracture prediction models not include race or ethnicity adjustment but instead be population-based and reflective of US demographics, and inclusive of key clinical, behavioral, and social determinants (where applicable). Research cohorts should be representative vis-à-vis race, ethnicity, gender, and age. There should be standardized collection of race and ethnicity; collection of social determinants of health to investigate impact on fracture risk; and measurement of fracture rates and BMD in cohorts inclusive of those historically underrepresented in osteoporosis research.

Using race or ethnicity when calculating disease risk may contribute to health disparities. The ASBMR Task Force on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk was created to understand the impact of the US Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (US-FRAX) race and ethnicity adjustments. The Task Force reviewed the historical development of FRAX, including the assumptions underlying selection of race and ethnicity adjustment factors. Furthermore, a systematic review of literature was conducted, which revealed an overall paucity of data evaluating the performance of US-FRAX in racially and ethnically diverse groups. While acknowledging the existence of racial and ethnic differences in fracture epidemiology, the Task Force determined that currently there is limited evidence to support the use of race and ethnicity­specific adjustments in US-FRAX. The Task Force also concluded that research is needed to create generalizable fracture risk calculators broadly applicable to current US demographics, which do not include race and ethnicity adjustments. Until such population­based fracture calculators are available, clinicians should consider providing fracture risk ranges for Asian, Black, and/or Hispanic patients and should engage in shared decision-making with patients about fracture risk interpretation. Future studies are required to evaluate fracture risk tools in populations inclusive of those historically underrepresented in research.

Balancing fracture risk versus risk of mortality before fracture among women aged 80 years or older.

BACKGROUND: Most fractures occur in women aged ≥80 years but competing mortality unrelated to fracture may limit the benefit of osteoporosis drug therapy for some women in late life. Our primary aim was to develop separate prediction models for non-spine fracture (NSF) and mortality before fracture to identify subsets of women with varying fracture versus mortality risks. METHODS: Separate prediction models were developed for NSF and mortality before NSF for 4895 women aged ≥80 years enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) or the Health Aging and Body Composition (HABC) study. Proportional hazards models modified to account for competing mortality were used to identify candidate risk factors for each outcome. Predictors associated with NSF or mortality (p < 0.2) were included in separate competing risk models to estimate the cumulative incidence of NSF and mortality before NSF during 5 years of follow-up. This process was repeated to develop separate prediction models for hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. RESULTS: Significant predictors of NSF (race, total hip BMD, grip strength, prior fracture, falls, and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, benzodiazepines, or oral/transdermal estrogen) differed from predictors of mortality before NSF (age, walking speed, multimorbidity, weight change, shrinking, smoking, self-rated health, dementia, and use of warfarin). Within nine subsets of women defined by tertiles of risk, 5-year outcomes varied from 28% NSF and 8% mortality in the high-risk NSF/low-risk mortality subset, to 9% NSF and 22% mortality in the low-risk NSF/high-risk mortality subset. Similar results were seen for predictors of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. CONCLUSION: Considerable variation in 5-year competing mortality risk is present among women in late life with similar 5-year NSF risk. Both fracture risk and life expectancy should inform shared clinical decision-making regarding initiation or continuation of osteoporosis drug therapy for women aged ≥80 years.

Associations Between Walking Speed and Gut Microbiome Composition in Older Men From the MrOS Study.

BACKGROUND: Gut dysbiosis has been linked to frailty, but its association with early mobility decline is unclear. METHODS: First, we determined the cross-sectional associations between walking speed and the gut microbiome in 740 older men (84 ±â€…4 years) from the MrOS cohort with available stool samples and 400 m walking speed measured in 2014-2016. Then, we analyzed the retrospective longitudinal associations between changes in 6 m walking speed (from 2005-2006 to 2014-2016, calculated by simple linear equation) and gut microbiome composition among participants with available data (702/740). We determined gut microbiome composition by 16S sequencing and examined diversity, taxa abundance, and performed network analysis to identify differences in the gut microbiome network of fast versus slow walkers. RESULTS: Faster 400 m walking speed (m/s) was associated with greater microbiome α-diversity (R = 0.11; p = .004). The association between a slower decline in 6 m walking speed and higher α-diversity (R = 0.07; p = .054) approached borderline significance. Faster walking speed and less decline in walking speed were associated with a higher abundance of genus-level bacteria that produce short-chain fatty acids, and possess anti-inflammatory properties, including Paraprevotella, Fusicatenibacter, and Alistipes, after adjusting for potential covariates (p < .05). The gut microbiome networks of participants in the first versus last quartile of walking speed (≤0.9 vs ≥1.2 m/s) exhibited distinct characteristics, including different centrality measures (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a possible relationship between gut microbiome diversity and mobility function, as indicated by the associations between faster walking speed and less decline in walking speed over 10 years with higher gut microbiome diversity in older men.

Nutrient Metabolites Associated With Low D3Cr Muscle Mass, Strength, and Physical Performance in Older Men.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between amino acids, B vitamins, and their metabolites with D3-creatine (D3Cr) dilution muscle mass, a more direct measure of skeletal muscle mass, has not been investigated. We aimed to assess associations of plasma metabolites with D3Cr muscle mass, as well as muscle strength and physical performance in older men from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men cohort study. METHODS: Out of 1 425 men (84.2 ±â€…4.1 years), men with the lowest D3Cr muscle mass (n = 100), slowest walking speed (n = 100), lowest grip strength (n = 100), and a random sample (n = 200) serving as a comparison group to the low groups were included. Metabolites were analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Metabolite differences between the low groups and random sample and their relationships with the muscle outcomes adjusted for confounders and multiple comparisons were assessed using t-test/Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon and partial correlations, respectively. RESULTS: For D3Cr muscle mass, significant biomarkers (p < .001) with ≥10% fold difference and largest partial correlations were tryptophan (Trp; r = 0.31), kynurenine (Kyn)/Trp; r = -0.27), nicotinamide (Nam)/quinolinic acid (Quin; r = 0.21), and alpha-hydroxy-5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate (hm-THF; r = -0.25). For walking speed, hm-THF, Nam/Quin, and Quin had the largest significance and fold difference, whereas valine (r = 0.17), Trp (r = 0.17), HKyn/Xant (r = -0.20), neopterin (r = -0.17), 5-methyl-THF (r = -0.20), methylated folate (r = -0.21), and thiamine (r = -0.18) had the strongest correlations. Only hm-THF was correlated with grip strength (r = -0.21) and differed between the low group and the random sample. CONCLUSIONS: Future interventions focusing on how the Trp metabolic pathway or hm-THF influences D3Cr muscle mass and physical performance declines in older adults are warranted.

A two-cohort study on the association between the gut microbiota and bone density, microarchitecture, and strength.

The gut microbiome affects the inflammatory environment through effects on T-cells, which influence the production of immune mediators and inflammatory cytokines that stimulate osteoclastogenesis and bone loss in mice. However, there are few large human studies of the gut microbiome and skeletal health. We investigated the association between the human gut microbiome and high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) scans of the radius and tibia in two large cohorts; Framingham Heart Study (FHS [n=1227, age range: 32 - 89]), and the Osteoporosis in Men Study (MrOS [n=836, age range: 78 - 98]). Stool samples from study participants underwent amplification and sequencing of the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. The resulting 16S rRNA sequencing data were processed separately for each cohort, with the DADA2 pipeline incorporated in the16S bioBakery workflow. Resulting amplicon sequence variants were assigned taxonomies using the SILVA reference database. Controlling for multiple covariates, we tested for associations between microbial taxa abundances and HR-pQCT measures using general linear models as implemented in microbiome multivariable association with linear model (MaAslin2). Abundance of 37 microbial genera in FHS, and 4 genera in MrOS, were associated with various skeletal measures (false discovery rate [FDR] ≤ 0.1) including the association of DTU089 with bone measures, which was independently replicated in the two cohorts. A meta-analysis of the taxa-bone associations further revealed (FDR ≤ 0.25) that greater abundances of the genera; Akkermansia and DTU089, were associated with lower radius total vBMD, and tibia cortical vBMD respectively. Conversely, higher abundances of the genera; Lachnospiraceae NK4A136 group, and Faecalibacterium were associated with greater tibia cortical vBMD. We also investigated functional capabilities of microbial taxa by testing for associations between predicted (based on 16S rRNA amplicon sequence data) metabolic pathways abundance and bone phenotypes in each cohort. While there were no concordant functional associations observed in both cohorts, a meta-analysis revealed 8 pathways including the super-pathway of histidine, purine, and pyrimidine biosynthesis, associated with bone measures of the tibia cortical compartment. In conclusion, our findings suggest that there is a link between the gut microbiome and skeletal metabolism.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Random Forest Models for Prediction of Hip Fracture Risk Versus Mortality Risk in the Oldest Old.

Targeted fracture prevention strategies among late-life adults should balance fracture risk versus competing mortality risk. Models have previously been constructed using Fine-Gray subdistribution methods. We used a machine learning method adapted for competing risk survival time to evaluate candidate risk factors and create models for hip fractures and competing mortality among men and women aged 80 years and older using data from three prospective cohorts (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF], Osteoporotic Fracture in Men study [MrOS], Health Aging and Body Composition study [HABC]). Random forest competing risk models were used to estimate absolute 5-year risk of hip fracture and absolute 5-year risk of competing mortality (excluding post-hip fracture deaths). Models were constructed for both outcomes simultaneously; minimal depth was used to rank and select variables for smaller models. Outcome specific models were constructed; variable importance was used to rank and select variables for inclusion in smaller random forest models. Random forest models were compared to simple Fine-Gray models with six variables selected a priori. Top variables for competing risk random forests were frailty and related components in men while top variables were age, bone mineral density (BMD) (total hip, femoral neck), and frailty components in women. In both men and women, outcome specific rankings strongly favored BMD variables for hip fracture prediction while frailty and components were strongly associated with competing mortality. Model discrimination for random forest models varied from 0.65 for mortality in women to 0.81 for hip fracture in men and depended on model choice and variables included. Random models performed slightly better than simple Fine-Gray model for prediction of competing mortality, but similarly for prediction of hip fractures. Random forests can be used to estimate risk of hip fracture and competing mortality among the oldest old. Modest gains in performance for mortality without hip fracture compared to Fine-Gray models must be weighed against increased complexity. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Incremental Health Care Costs of Self-Reported Functional Impairments and Phenotypic Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older Adults : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care systems need better strategies to identify older adults at risk for costly care to select target populations for interventions to reduce health care burden. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with incremental health care costs after accounting for claims-based predictors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Index examinations (2002 to 2011) of 4 prospective cohort studies linked with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (4318 women, 3847 men). MEASUREMENTS: Weighted (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Category index) and unweighted (count of conditions) multimorbidity and frailty indicators derived from claims. Self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing 4 activities of daily living) and frailty phenotype (operationalized using 5 components) derived from cohort data. Health care costs ascertained for 36 months after index examinations. RESULTS: Average annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) were $13 906 among women and $14 598 among men. After accounting for claims-based indicators, average incremental costs of functional impairments versus no impairment in women (men) were $3328 ($2354) for 1 impairment increasing to $7330 ($11 760) for 4 impairments; average incremental costs of phenotypic frailty versus robust in women (men) were $8532 ($6172). Mean predicted costs adjusted for claims-based indicators in women (men) varied by both functional impairments and the frailty phenotype ranging from $8124 ($11 831) among robust persons without impairments to $18 792 ($24 713) among frail persons with 4 impairments. Compared with the model with claims-derived indicators alone, this model resulted in more accurate cost prediction for persons with multiple impairments or phenotypic frailty. LIMITATION: Cost data limited to participants enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service program. CONCLUSION: Self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with higher subsequent health care expenditures in community-dwelling beneficiaries after accounting for several claims-based indicators of costs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Physical activity and diet associations with the gut microbiota in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

BACKGROUND: Gut microbiota may influence metabolic pathways related to chronic health conditions. Evidence for physical activity and diet influences on gut microbial composition exists, but data from diverse population-based cohort studies are limited. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that gut microbial diversity and genera are associated with physical activity and diet quality. METHODS: Data were from 537 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, a prospective cohort, who attended the year 30 follow-up examination (2015-2016; aged 47-61 y; 45% Black race/55% White race; 45% men/55% women). The 16S ribosomal RNA marker gene was sequenced from stool DNA, and genus-level taxonomy was assigned. Within-person microbial diversity (α-diversity) was assessed with Shannon diversity index and richness scores; between-person diversity (ß-diversity) measures were generated with principal coordinates analysis (PCoA). Current and long-term physical activity and diet quality measures were derived from data collected over 30 y of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted regression analysis controlled for: sociodemographic variables (age, race, sex, education, and field center), other health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, and medication use), and adjusted for multiple comparisons with the false discovery rate (<0.20). RESULTS: Based on PCoA ß-diversity, participants' microbial community compositions differed significantly (P < 0.001), with respect to both current and long-term physical activity and diet quality. α-Diversity was associated only with current physical activity (positively) in multivariable-adjusted analysis. Multiple genera (n = 45) were associated with physical activity and fewer with diet (n = 5), including positive associations with Lachnospiraceae UCG-001 and Ruminococcaceae IncertaeSedis with both behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity and diet quality were associated with gut microbial composition among 537 participants in the CARDIA study. Multiple genera were associated with physical activity. Physical activity and diet quality were associated with genera consistent with pathways related to inflammation and short-chain fatty acid production.

Association of Subjective and Objective Measures of Sleep With Gut Microbiota Composition and Diversity in Older Men: The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests bidirectional links between gut microbiota and sleep quality as shared contributors to health. Little is known about the relationship between microbiota and sleep among older persons. METHODS: We used 16S rRNA sequencing to characterize stool microbiota among men (n = 606, mean [standard deviation] age = 83.9 [3.8]) enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study from 2014 to 2016. Sleep was assessed concurrently by a questionnaire (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality index [PSQI]), and activity monitor to examine timing (acrophase) and regularity of patterns (F-statistic). Alpha diversity was measured using Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD). Beta diversity was calculated with robust Aitchison distance with matrix completion (RPCA) and phylogenetic-RPCA (PRPCA). Their association with sleep variables was tested with partial distance-based redundancy analysis (dbRDA). Predictive-ratio biomarkers associated with sleep measurements were identified with CoDaCoRe. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, men with poor sleep (PSQI >5) tended to have lower alpha diversity compared to men with normal sleep (Faith's PD, beta = -0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.30 to 0.01, p = .06). Sleep regularity was significantly associated with RPCA and PRPCA, even after adjusting for site, batch, age, ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes, antidepressant and sleep medication use, and health behaviors (RPCA/PRPCA dbRDA; p = .033/.002). In taxonomic analysis, ratios of 7:6 bacteria for better regularity (p = .0004) and 4:7 for worse self-reported sleep (p = .005) were differentially abundant: some butyrate-producing bacteria were associated with better sleep characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Subjective and objective indicators of sleep quality suggest that older men with better sleep patterns are more likely to harbor butyrate-producing bacteria associated with better health.

Relation Between Dietary Protein Intake and Gut Microbiome Composition in Community-Dwelling Older Men: Findings from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association of specific nutrients, especially proteins, on age-related gut dysbiosis. OBJECTIVES: To determine the associations between the quantity and sources (vegetable and animal) of dietary protein intake and gut microbiome composition in community-dwelling older men. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis on 775 older men from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) (age 84.2 ± 4.0 y) with available dietary information and stool samples at visit 4 (2014-2016). Protein intake was estimated from a brief FFQ and adjusted to total energy intake. The gut microbiome composition was determined by 16S (v4) sequencing (processed by DADA2 and SILVA). A total of 11,534 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were identified and assigned to 21 phyla with dominance of Firmicutes (45%) and Bacteroidetes (43%). We performed α-diversity, ß-diversity, and taxa abundance (by Analysis of Compositions of Microbiomes with Bias Correction [ANCOM-BC]) to determine the associations between protein intake and the gut microbiome. RESULTS: Median protein intake was 0.7 g/(kg body weight · d). Participants with higher energy-adjusted protein intakes had higher Shannon and Chao1 α-diversity indices (P < 0.05). For ß-diversity analysis, participants with higher protein intakes had a different center in weighted and unweighted UniFrac Principal Co-ordinates Analysis (PCoA) compared with those with lower intake (P < 0.05), adjusted for age, race, education, clinical center, batch number, fiber and energy intake, weight, height, and medications. Similarly, higher protein consumptions from either animal or vegetable sources were associated with higher gut microbiome diversity. Several genus-level ASVs, including Christensenellaceae, Veillonella, Haemophilus, and Klebsiella were more abundant in participants with higher protein intakes, whereas Clostridiales bacterium DTU089 and Desulfovibrio were more abundant in participants with lower protein intake (Bonferroni corrected P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We observed significant associations between protein intake and gut microbiome diversity in community-living older men. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mediation role of the gut microbiome on the relation between protein intake and health outcomes in older adults.

Characteristics Associated With 5-Year Fracture Risk Versus 5-Year Mortality Risk Among Late-Life Men.

BACKGROUND: Identifying late-life men who might benefit from treatment to prevent fracture is challenging given high mortality. Our objective was to evaluate risks of clinical fracture, hip fracture, and mortality prior to fracture among men aged at least 80 years. METHODS: Study participants included 3 145 community-dwelling men (mean [standard deviation] age 83 [2.8] years) from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. We used separate multivariable Fine-Gray competing risk models with prespecified risk factors (age, hip bone mineral density [BMD], recent fracture [<5 years], fall history [previous year], and multimorbidity [# conditions]) to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios and absolute 5-year risks of any clinical fracture and mortality prior to clinical fracture. Secondary analysis considered a hip fracture. RESULTS: There were 414 incident clinical fractures and 595 deaths without prior fracture within 5 years. BMD, fall history, and recent fracture were strong predictors of clinical fracture. Age and multimorbidity were strong predictors of mortality before fracture. After accounting for competing risks, age, BMD, and fall history were each associated with both risks of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. Model discrimination varied from 0.65 (mortality before fracture) to 0.79 (hip fracture). Estimated mortality differed substantially among men with similar clinical fracture risk due to a modest correlation between fracture risk and competing mortality risk = 0.37. CONCLUSION: In late-life men, strong risk factors for clinical fracture and hip fracture include fall history, BMD, and recent fracture. Osteoporosis drug treatment decisions may be further enhanced by consideration of fracture risk versus overall life expectancy.

Repeat Bone Mineral Density Screening Measurement and Fracture Prediction in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study.

CONTEXT: Whether repeated bone mineral density (BMD) screening improves fracture prediction in men is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated whether a second BMD 7 years after the initial BMD improves fracture prediction in older men. METHODS: Among 3651 community-dwelling men (mean age 79.1 years) with total hip BMD at baseline and Year 7 (Y7), self-reported fractures after Y7 were confirmed by radiographic reports. Fracture prediction assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression with receiver operating characteristic curves for models based on initial BMD, BMD change, and the combination of initial BMD and BMD change (combination model). RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 8.2 years after Y7, 793 men experienced ≥ 1 clinical fractures, including 426 men with major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and 193 men with hip fractures. Both initial BMD and BMD change were associated with risk of fracture outcomes independent of each other, but the association was stronger for initial BMD. For example, the multivariable hazard ratio of MOF in the combination model per 1 SD decrement in BMD was 1.76 (95% CI 1.57-1.98) for initial BMD and 1.19 (95% CI 1.08-1.32) for BMD change. Discrimination of fracture outcomes with initial BMD models was somewhat better than with BMD change models and similar to combination models (AUC value for MOF 0.68 [95% CI 0.66-0.71] for initial BMD model, 0.63 [95% CI 0.61-0.66] for BMD change model, and 0.69 [95% CI 0.66-0.71] for combination model). CONCLUSION: Repeating BMD after 7 years did not meaningfully improve fracture prediction at the population level in community-dwelling older men.