OBJECTIVE: To construct a predictive score for the development or progression of Graves' orbitopathy (GO) in Graves' hyperthyroidism (GH). DESIGN: Prospective observational study in patients with newly diagnosed GH, treated with antithyroid drugs (ATD) for 18 months at ten participating centers from EUGOGO in 8 European countries. METHODS: 348 patients were included with untreated GH but without obvious GO. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors. A predictive score (called PREDIGO) was constructed. RESULTS: GO occurred in 15% (mild in 13% and moderate to severe in 2%), predominantly at 6-12 months after start of ATD. Independent baseline determinants for the development of GO were clinical activity score (assigned 5 points if score > 0), TSH-binding inhibitory immunoglobulins (2 points if TBII 2-10 U/L, 5 points if TBII > 10 U/L), duration of hyperthyroid symptoms (1 point if 1-4 months, 3 points if >4 months) and smoking (2 points if current smoker). Based on the odds ratio of each of these four determinants, a quantitative predictive score (called PREDIGO) was constructed ranging from 0 to 15 with higher scores denoting higher risk; positive and negative predictive values were 0.28 (95% CI 0.20-0.37) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In patients without GO at diagnosis, 15% will develop GO (13% mild, 2% moderate to severe) during subsequent treatment with ATD for 18 months. A predictive score called PREDIGO composed of four baseline determinants was better in predicting those patients who will not develop obvious GO than who will.
Graves Disease/diagnosis , Graves Ophthalmopathy/diagnosis , Adult , Antithyroid Agents/therapeutic use , Autoantibodies/blood , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Graves Disease/drug therapy , Graves Ophthalmopathy/epidemiology , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Smoking , Thyrotropin/immunology , Time Factors
BACKGROUND/AIMS: The epidemiology of Graves' orbitopathy (GO) may be changing. The aim of the study was to identify trends in presentation of GO to tertiary centres and initial management over time. METHODS: Prospective observational study of European Group On Graves' Orbitopathy (EUGOGO) centres. All new referrals with a diagnosis of GO over a 4-month period in 2012 were included. Clinical and demographic characteristics, referral timelines and initial decisions about management were recorded. The data were compared with a similar EUGOGO survey performed in 2000. RESULTS: The demographic characteristics of 269 patients studied in 2012 were similar to those collected in the year 2000, including smoking rates (40.0% vs 40.2%). Mild (60.5% vs 41.2%, p<0.01) and inactive GO (63.2% vs 39.9%, p<0.01) were more prevalent in 2012. The times from diagnosis of thyroid disease to being seen in EUGOGO centres (6 vs 16 months) and from first symptoms of GO (9 vs 16 months) or from diagnosis of GO (6 vs 12 months) to first consultation in EUGOGO centres were shorter in 2012 (p<0.01). The initial management plans for GO were no different except surgical treatments for patients with mild inactive disease were more frequently offered in the 2012 cohort than in 2000 (27.3% vs 17%, p<0.05), and selenium supplements were offered only in the 2012 cohort (21.2% vs 0%, p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the clinical manifestations of patients with GO may be changing over time in Europe.
Graves Ophthalmopathy/diagnosis , Graves Ophthalmopathy/epidemiology , Referral and Consultation/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Ophthalmology/statistics & numerical data , Prevalence , Prospective Studies , Tertiary Care Centers/statistics & numerical data
