Excessive concentrations of kinase inhibitors in translational studies impede effective drug repurposing.

Drug repositioning seeks to leverage existing clinical knowledge to identify alternative clinical settings for approved drugs. However, repositioning efforts fail to demonstrate improved success rates in late-stage clinical trials. Focusing on 11 approved kinase inhibitors that have been evaluated in 139 repositioning hypotheses, we use data mining to characterize the state of clinical repurposing. Then, using a simple experimental correction with human serum proteins in in vitro pharmacodynamic assays, we develop a measurement of a drug's effective exposure. We show that this metric is remarkably predictive of clinical activity for a panel of five kinase inhibitors across 23 drug variant targets in leukemia. We then validate our model's performance in six other kinase inhibitors for two types of solid tumors: non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). Our approach presents a straightforward strategy to use existing clinical information and experimental systems to decrease the clinical failure rate in drug repurposing studies.

Deciphering the Mechanistic Basis for Perfluoroalkyl-Protein Interactions.

Although rarely used in nature, fluorine has emerged as an important elemental ingredient in the design of proteins with altered folding, stability, oligomerization propensities, and bioactivity. Adding to the molecular modification toolbox, here we report the ability of privileged perfluorinated amphiphiles to noncovalently decorate proteins to alter their conformational plasticity and potentiate their dispersion into fluorous phases. Employing a complementary suite of biophysical, in-silico and in-vitro approaches, we establish structure-activity relationships defining these phenomena and investigate their impact on protein structural dynamics and intracellular trafficking. Notably, we show that the lead compound, perfluorononanoic acid, is 106 times more potent in inducing non-native protein secondary structure in select proteins than is the well-known helix inducer trifluoroethanol, and also significantly enhances the cellular uptake of complexed proteins. These findings could advance the rational design of fluorinated proteins, inform on potential modes of toxicity for perfluoroalkyl substances, and guide the development of fluorine-modified biologics with desirable functional properties for drug discovery and delivery applications.

Agent-Based Models Help Interpret Patterns of Clinical Drug Resistance by Contextualizing Competition Between Distinct Drug Failure Modes.

Introduction: Modern targeted cancer therapies are carefully crafted small molecules. These exquisite technologies exhibit an astonishing diversity of observed failure modes (drug resistance mechanisms) in the clinic. This diversity is surprising because back of the envelope calculations and classic modeling results in evolutionary dynamics suggest that the diversity in the modes of clinical drug resistance should be considerably smaller than what is observed. These same calculations suggest that the outgrowth of strong pre-existing genetic resistance mutations within a tumor should be ubiquitous. Yet, clinically relevant drug resistance occurs in the absence of obvious resistance conferring genetic alterations. Quantitatively, understanding the underlying biological mechanisms of failure mode diversity may improve the next generation of targeted anticancer therapies. It also provides insights into how intratumoral heterogeneity might shape interpatient diversity during clinical relapse. Materials and Methods: We employed spatial agent-based models to explore regimes where spatial constraints enable wild type cells (that encounter beneficial microenvironments) to compete against genetically resistant subclones in the presence of therapy. In order to parameterize a model of microenvironmental resistance, BT20 cells were cultured in the presence and absence of fibroblasts from 16 different tissues. The degree of resistance conferred by cancer associated fibroblasts in the tumor microenvironment was quantified by treating mono- and co-cultures with letrozole and then measuring the death rates. Results and Discussion: Our simulations indicate that, even when a mutation is more drug resistant, its outgrowth can be delayed by abundant, low magnitude microenvironmental resistance across large regions of a tumor that lack genetic resistance. These observations hold for different modes of microenvironmental resistance, including juxtacrine signaling, soluble secreted factors, and remodeled ECM. This result helps to explain the remarkable diversity of resistance mechanisms observed in solid tumors, which subverts the presumption that the failure mode that causes the quantitatively fastest growth in the presence of drug should occur most often in the clinic. Conclusion: Our model results demonstrate that spatial effects can interact with low magnitude of resistance microenvironmental effects to successfully compete against genetic resistance that is orders of magnitude larger. Clinical outcomes of solid tumors are intrinsically connected to their spatial structure, and the tractability of spatial agent-based models like the ones presented here enable us to understand this relationship more completely.

SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics.

State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states-Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania-that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.

SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three US states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics.

In the United States, state-level re-openings in spring 2020 presented an opportunity for the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. One important question during this time was whether human contact and mixing patterns could increase gradually without increasing viral transmission, the rationale being that new mixing patterns would likely be associated with improved distancing, masking, and hygiene practices. A second key question to follow during this time was whether clinical characteristics of the epidemic would improve after the initial surge of cases. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states - Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania - that had successful re-openings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using a Bayesian inference framework on eleven daily data streams and flexible daily population contact parameters, we show that population-average mixing rates dropped by >50% during the lockdown period in March/April, and that the correlation between overall population mobility and transmission-capable mobility was broken in May as these states partially re-opened. We estimate the reporting rates (fraction of symptomatic cases reporting to health system) at 96.0% (RI), 72.1% (MA), and 75.5% (PA); in Rhode Island, when accounting for cases caught through general-population screening programs, the reporting rate estimate is 94.5%. We show that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Attack rate estimates through August 31 2020 are 6.4% (95% CI: 5.8% ‒ 7.3%) of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 5.7% (95% CI: 5.0% ‒ 6.8%) in Massachusetts, and 3.7% (95% CI: 3.1% ‒ 4.5%) in Pennsylvania, with some validation available through published seroprevalence studies. Infection fatality rates (IFR) estimates for the spring epidemic are higher in our analysis (>2%) than previously reported values, likely resulting from the epidemics in these three states affecting the most vulnerable sub-populations, especially the most vulnerable of the ≥80 age group.

Optimal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation using real-time attack-rate estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: When three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines came to market in Europe and North America in the winter of 2020-2021, distribution networks were in a race against a major epidemiological wave of SARS-CoV-2 that began in autumn 2020. Rapid and optimized vaccine allocation was critical during this time. With 95% efficacy reported for two of the vaccines, near-term public health needs likely require that distribution is prioritized to the elderly, health care workers, teachers, essential workers, and individuals with comorbidities putting them at risk of severe clinical progression. METHODS: We evaluate various age-based vaccine distributions using a validated mathematical model based on current epidemic trends in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We allow for varying waning efficacy of vaccine-induced immunity, as this has not yet been measured. We account for the fact that known COVID-positive cases may not have been included in the first round of vaccination. And, we account for age-specific immune patterns in both states at the time of the start of the vaccination program. Our analysis assumes that health systems during winter 2020-2021 had equal staffing and capacity to previous phases of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic; we do not consider the effects of understaffed hospitals or unvaccinated medical staff. RESULTS: We find that allocating a substantial proportion (>75%) of vaccine supply to individuals over the age of 70 is optimal in terms of reducing total cumulative deaths through mid-2021. This result is robust to different profiles of waning vaccine efficacy and several different assumptions on age mixing during and after lockdown periods. As we do not explicitly model other high-mortality groups, our results on vaccine allocation apply to all groups at high risk of mortality if infected. A median of 327 to 340 deaths can be avoided in Rhode Island (3444 to 3647 in Massachusetts) by optimizing vaccine allocation and vaccinating the elderly first. The vaccination campaigns are expected to save a median of 639 to 664 lives in Rhode Island and 6278 to 6618 lives in Massachusetts in the first half of 2021 when compared to a scenario with no vaccine. A policy of vaccinating only seronegative individuals avoids redundancy in vaccine use on individuals that may already be immune, and would result in 0.5% to 1% reductions in cumulative hospitalizations and deaths by mid-2021. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming high vaccination coverage (>28%) and no major changes in distancing, masking, gathering size, hygiene guidelines, and virus transmissibility between 1 January 2021 and 1 July 2021 a combination of vaccination and population immunity may lead to low or near-zero transmission levels by the second quarter of 2021.

Optimal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation using real-time seroprevalence estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

As three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines come to market in Europe and North America in the winter of 2020-2021, distribution networks will be in a race against a major epidemiological wave of SARS-CoV-2 that began in autumn 2020. Rapid and optimized vaccine allocation is critical during this time. With 95% efficacy reported for two of the vaccines, near-term public health needs require that distribution is prioritized to the elderly, health-care workers, teachers, essential workers, and individuals with co-morbidities putting them at risk of severe clinical progression. Here, we evaluate various age-based vaccine distributions using a validated mathematical model based on current epidemic trends in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We allow for varying waning efficacy of vaccine-induced immunity, as this has not yet been measured. We account for the fact that known COVID-positive cases may not be included in the first round of vaccination. And, we account for current age-specific immune patterns in both states. We find that allocating a substantial proportion ( > 75%) of vaccine supply to individuals over the age of 70 is optimal in terms of reducing total cumulative deaths through mid-2021. As we do not explicitly model other high mortality groups, this result on vaccine allocation applies to all groups at high risk of mortality if infected. Our analysis confirms that for an easily transmissible respiratory virus, allocating a large majority of vaccinations to groups with the highest mortality risk is optimal. Our analysis assumes that health systems during winter 2020-2021 have equal staffing and capacity to previous phases of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic; we do not consider the effects of understaffed hospitals or unvaccinated medical staff. Vaccinating only seronegative individuals avoids redundancy in vaccine use on individuals that may already be immune, and will result in 1% to 2% reductions in cumulative hospitalizations and deaths by mid-2021. Assuming high vaccination coverage ( > 28%) and no major relaxations in distancing, masking, gathering size, or hygiene guidelines between now and spring 2021, our model predicts that a combination of vaccination and population immunity will lead to low or near-zero transmission levels by the second quarter of 2021.

Multi-scale Predictions of Drug Resistance Epidemiology Identify Design Principles for Rational Drug Design.

Rationally designing drugs that last longer in the face of biological evolution is a critical objective of drug discovery. However, this goal is thwarted by the diversity and stochasticity of evolutionary trajectories that drive uncertainty in the clinic. Although biophysical models can qualitatively predict whether a mutation causes resistance, they cannot quantitatively predict the relative abundance of resistance mutations in patient populations. We present stochastic, first-principle models that are parameterized on a large in vitro dataset and that accurately predict the epidemiological abundance of resistance mutations across multiple leukemia clinical trials. The ability to forecast resistance variants requires an understanding of their underlying mutation biases. Beyond leukemia, a meta-analysis across prostate cancer, breast cancer, and gastrointestinal stromal tumors suggests that resistance evolution in the adjuvant setting is influenced by mutational bias. Our analysis establishes a principle for rational drug design: when evolution favors the most probable mutant, so should drug design.

Single-Molecule Sequencing Reveals Patterns of Preexisting Drug Resistance That Suggest Treatment Strategies in Philadelphia-Positive Leukemias.

Purpose: Sequential treatment with targeted therapies can result in complex combinations of resistance mutations in drug targets. This mutational complexity has spurred the development of pan-target inhibitors, i.e., therapies for which no single target mutation can cause resistance. Because the propensity for on- versus off-target resistance varies across cancer types, a deeper understanding of the mutational burden in drug targets could rationalize treatment outcomes and prioritize pan-target inhibitors for indications where on-target mutations are most likely.Experimental Design: To measure and model the mutational landscape of a drug target at high resolution, we integrated single-molecule Duplex Sequencing of the ABL1 gene in Philadelphia-positive (Ph+) leukemias with computational simulations.Results: A combination of drug target mutational burden and tumor-initiating cell fraction is sufficient to predict that most patients with chronic myeloid leukemia are unlikely to harbor ABL1 resistance mutations at the time of diagnosis, rationalizing the exceptional success of targeted therapy in this setting. In contrast, our analysis predicts that many patients with Ph+ acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL) harbor multiple preexisting resistant cells with single mutants. The emergence of compound mutations can be traced to initial use of an ABL1 inhibitor that is susceptible to resistance from single point mutations.Conclusions: These results argue that early use of therapies that achieve pan-inhibition of ABL1 resistance mutants might improve outcomes in Ph+ ALL. Our findings show how a deep understanding of the mutational burden in drug targets can be quantitatively coupled to phenotypic heterogeneity to rationalize clinical phenomena. Clin Cancer Res; 24(21); 5321-34. ©2018 AACR.