Longitudinal analysis within one hospital in sub-Saharan Africa over 20 years reveals repeated replacements of dominant clones of Klebsiella pneumoniae and stresses the importance to include temporal patterns for vaccine design considerations.

BACKGROUND: Infections caused by multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria present a severe threat to global public health. The WHO defines drug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae as a priority pathogen for which alternative treatments are needed given the limited treatment options and the rapid acquisition of novel resistance mechanisms by this species. Longitudinal descriptions of genomic epidemiology of Klebsiella pneumoniae can inform management strategies but data from sub-Saharan Africa are lacking. METHODS: We present a longitudinal analysis of all invasive K. pneumoniae isolates from a single hospital in Blantyre, Malawi, southern Africa, from 1998 to 2020, combining clinical data with genome sequence analysis of the isolates. RESULTS: We show that after a dramatic increase in the number of infections from 2016 K. pneumoniae becomes hyperendemic, driven by an increase in neonatal infections. Genomic data show repeated waves of clonal expansion of different, often ward-restricted, lineages, suggestive of hospital-associated transmission. We describe temporal trends in resistance and surface antigens, of relevance for vaccine development. CONCLUSIONS: Our data highlight a clear need for new interventions to prevent rather than treat K. pneumoniae infections in our setting. Whilst one option may be a vaccine, the majority of cases could be avoided by an increased focus on and investment in infection prevention and control measures, which would reduce all healthcare-associated infections and not just one.

Four antenatal care visits by four months of pregnancy and four vital tests for pregnant mothers: impact of a community-facility health systems strengthening intervention in Migori County, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Early attendance at antenatal care (ANC), coupled with good-quality care, is essential for improving maternal and child health outcomes. However, achieving these outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa remains a challenge. This study examines the effects of a community-facility health system strengthening model (known as 4byFour) on early ANC attendance, testing for four conditions by four months of pregnancy, and four ANC clinic visits in Migori county, western Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a mixed methods quasi-experimental study with a before-after interventional design to assess the impact of the 4byFour model on ANC attendance. Data were collected between August 2019 and December 2020 from two ANC hospitals. Using quantitative data obtained from facility ANC registers, we analysed 707 baseline and 894 endline unique ANC numbers (attendances) based on negative binomial regression. Logistic regression models were used to determine the impact of patient factors on outcomes with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio testing used to compare models. Regular facility stock checks were undertaken at the study sites to assess the availability of ANC profile tests. Analysis of the quantitative data was conducted in R v4.1.1 software. Additionally, qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with 37 purposively sampled participants, including pregnant mothers, community health volunteers, facility staff, and senior county health officials to explore outcomes of the intervention. The interview data were audio-recorded, transcribed, and coded; and thematic analysis was conducted in NVivo. RESULTS: There was a significant 26% increase in overall ANC uptake in both facilities following the intervention. Early ANC attendance improved for all age groups, including adolescents, from 22% (baseline) to 33% (endline, p = 0.002). Logistic regression models predicting early booking were a better fit to data when patient factors were included (age, parity, and distance to clinic, p = 0.004 on likelihood ratio testing), suggesting that patient factors were associated with early booking.The proportion of women receiving all four tests by four months increased to 3% (27/894), with haemoglobin and malaria testing rates rising to 8% and 4%, respectively. Despite statistical significance (p < 0.001), the rates of testing remained low. Testing uptake in ANC was hampered by frequent shortage of profile commodities not covered by buffer stock and low ANC attendance during the first trimester. Qualitative data highlighted how community health volunteer-enhanced health education improved understanding and motivated early ANC-seeking. Community pregnancy testing facilitated early detection and referral, particularly for adolescent mothers. Challenges to optimal ANC attendance included insufficient knowledge about the ideal timing for ANC initiation, financial constraints, and long distances to facilities. CONCLUSION: The 4byFour model of community-facility health system strengthening has the potential to improve early uptake of ANC and testing in pregnancy. Sustained improvement in ANC attendance requires concerted efforts to improve care quality, consistent availability of ANC commodities, understand motivating factors, and addressing barriers to ANC. Research involving randomised control trials is needed to strengthen the evidence on the model's effectiveness and inform potential scale up.

A Bayesian approach to identifying the role of hospital structure and staff interactions in nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Nosocomial infections threaten patient safety, and were widely reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective hospital infection control requires a detailed understanding of the role of different transmission pathways, yet these are poorly quantified. Using patient and staff data from a large UK hospital, we demonstrate a method to infer unobserved epidemiological event times efficiently and disentangle the infectious pressure dynamics by ward. A stochastic individual-level, continuous-time state-transition model was constructed to model transmission of SARS-CoV-2, incorporating a dynamic staff-patient contact network as time-varying parameters. A Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate transmission rate parameters associated with each possible source of infection, and the unobserved infection and recovery times. We found that the total infectious pressure exerted on an individual in a ward varied over time, as did the primary source of transmission. There was marked heterogeneity between wards; each ward experienced unique infectious pressure over time. Hospital infection control should consider the role of between-ward movement of staff as a key infectious source of nosocomial infection for SARS-CoV-2. With further development, this method could be implemented routinely for real-time monitoring of nosocomial transmission and to evaluate interventions.

Investigating One Health risks for human colonisation with extended spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in Malawian households: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low-income countries have high morbidity and mortality from drug-resistant infections, especially from enteric bacteria such as Escherichia coli. In these settings, sanitation infrastructure is of variable and often inadequate quality, creating risks of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacterales transmission. We aimed to describe the prevalence, distribution, and risks of ESBL-producing Enterobacterales colonisation in sub-Saharan Africa using a One Health approach. METHODS: Between April 29, 2019, and Dec 3, 2020, we recruited 300 households in Malawi for this longitudinal cohort study: 100 each in urban, peri-urban, and rural settings. All households underwent a baseline visit and 195 were selected for longitudinal follow-up, comprising up to three additional visits over a 6 month period. Data on human health, antibiotic usage, health-seeking behaviours, structural and behavioural environmental health practices, and animal husbandry were captured alongside human, animal, and environmental samples. Microbiological processing determined the presence of ESBL-producing E coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, and hierarchical logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risks of human ESBL-producing Enterobacterales colonisation. FINDINGS: A paucity of environmental health infrastructure and materials for safe sanitation was identified across all sites. A total of 11 975 samples were cultured, and ESBL-producing Enterobacterales were isolated from 1190 (41·8%) of 2845 samples of human stool, 290 (29·8%) of 973 samples of animal stool, 339 (66·2%) of 512 samples of river water, and 138 (46·0%) of 300 samples of drain water. Multivariable models illustrated that human ESBL-producing E coli colonisation was associated with the wet season (adjusted odds ratio 1·66, 95% credible interval 1·38-2·00), living in urban areas (2·01, 1·26-3·24), advanced age (1·14, 1·05-1·25), and living in households where animals were observed interacting with food (1·62, 1·17-2·28) or kept inside (1·58, 1·00-2·43). Human ESBL-producing K pneumoniae colonisation was associated with the wet season (2·12, 1·63-2·76). INTERPRETATION: There are extremely high levels of ESBL-producing Enterobacterales colonisation in humans and animals and extensive contamination of the wider environment in southern Malawi. Urbanisation and seasonality are key risks for ESBL-producing Enterobacterales colonisation, probably reflecting environmental drivers. Without adequate efforts to improve environmental health, ESBL-producing Enterobacterales transmission is likely to persist in this setting. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the Chichewa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of whole-genome sequencing for the surveillance of bacterial pathogens.

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has unparalleled ability to distinguish between bacteria, with many public health applications. The generation and analysis of WGS data require significant financial investment. We describe a systematic review summarizing economic analyses of genomic surveillance of bacterial pathogens, reviewing the evidence for economic viability. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021289030). Six databases were searched on 8 November 2021 using terms related to 'WGS', 'population surveillance' and 'economic analysis'. Quality was assessed with the Drummond-Jefferson checklist. Following data extraction, a narrative synthesis approach was taken. Six hundred and eighty-one articles were identified, of which 49 proceeded to full-text screening, with 9 selected for inclusion. All had been published since 2019. Heterogeneity was high. Five studies assessed WGS for hospital surveillance and four analysed foodborne pathogens. Four were cost-benefit analyses, one was a cost-utility analysis, one was a cost-effectiveness analysis, one was a combined cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis, one combined cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses and one was a partial analysis. All studies supported the use of WGS as a surveillance tool on economic grounds. The available evidence supports the use of WGS for pathogen surveillance but is limited by marked heterogeneity. Further work should include analysis relevant to low- and middle-income countries and should use real-world effectiveness data.

Colonization dynamics of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales in the gut of Malawian adults.

Drug-resistant bacteria of the order Enterobacterales which produce extended-spectrum beta-lactamase enzymes (ESBL-Enterobacterales, ESBL-E) are global priority pathogens. Antimicrobial stewardship interventions proposed to curb their spread include shorter courses of antimicrobials to reduce selection pressure but individual-level acquisition and selection dynamics are poorly understood. We sampled stool of 425 adults (aged 16-76 years) in Blantyre, Malawi, over 6 months and used multistate modelling and whole-genome sequencing to understand colonization dynamics of ESBL-E. Models suggest a prolonged effect of antimicrobials such that truncating an antimicrobial course at 2 days has a limited effect in reducing colonization. Genomic analysis shows largely indistinguishable diversity of healthcare-associated and community-acquired isolates, hence some apparent acquisition of ESBL-E during hospitalization may instead represent selection from a patient's microbiota by antimicrobial exposure. Our approach could help guide stewardship protocols; interventions that aim to review and truncate courses of unneeded antimicrobials may be of limited use in preventing ESBL-E colonization.

Genomic and antigenic diversity of colonizing Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates mirrors that of invasive isolates in Blantyre, Malawi.

Members of the Klebsiella pneumoniae species complex, particularly K. pneumoniae subsp. pneumoniae are antimicrobial resistance (AMR) associated pathogens of global importance, and polyvalent vaccines targeting Klebsiella O-antigens are in development. Whole-genome sequencing has provided insight into O-antigen distribution in the K. pneumoniae species complex, as well as population structure and virulence determinants, but genomes from sub-Saharan Africa are underrepresented in global sequencing efforts. We therefore carried out a genomic analysis of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing K. pneumoniae species complex isolates colonizing adults in Blantyre, Malawi. We placed these isolates in a global genomic context, and compared colonizing to invasive isolates from the main public hospital in Blantyre. In total, 203 isolates from stool and rectal swabs from adults were whole-genome sequenced and compared to a publicly available multicounty collection and previously sequenced Malawian and Kenyan isolates from blood or sterile sites. We inferred phylogenetic relationships and analysed the diversity of genetic loci linked to AMR, virulence, capsule and LPS O-antigen (O-types). We find that the diversity of Malawian K. pneumoniae subsp. pneumoniae isolates represents the species' population structure, but shows distinct local signatures concerning clonal expansions. Siderophore and hypermucoidy genes were more frequent in invasive versus colonizing isolates (present in 13 % vs 1 %) but still generally lacking in most invasive isolates. O-antigen population structure and distribution was similar in invasive and colonizing isolates, with O4 more common (14%) than in previously published studies (2-5 %). We conclude that host factors, pathogen opportunity or alternate virulence loci not linked to invasive disease elsewhere are likely to be the major determinants of invasive disease in Malawi. Distinct ST and O-type distributions in Malawi highlight the need to sample locations where the burden of invasive Klebsiella disease is greatest to robustly define secular trends in Klebsiella diversity to assist in the development of a useful vaccine. Colonizing and invasive isolates in Blantyre are similar, hence O-typing of colonizing Klebsiella isolates may be a rapid and cost-effective approach to describe global diversity and guide vaccine development.

A Longitudinal, Observational Study of Etiology and Long-Term Outcomes of Sepsis in Malawi Revealing the Key Role of Disseminated Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis protocols in sub-Saharan Africa are typically extrapolated from high-income settings, yet sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa is likely caused by distinct pathogens and may require novel treatment strategies. Data to guide such strategies are lacking. We aimed to define causes and modifiable factors associated with sepsis outcomes in Blantyre, Malawi, in order to inform the design of treatment strategies tailored to sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We recruited 225 adults who met a sepsis case definition defined by fever and organ dysfunction in an observational cohort study at a single tertiary center. Etiology was defined using culture, antigen detection, serology, and polymerase chain reaction. The effect of treatment on 28-day outcomes was assessed using Bayesian logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 143 of 213 (67%) participants living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We identified a diagnosis in 145 of 225 (64%) participants, most commonly tuberculosis (TB; 34%) followed by invasive bacterial infections (17%), arboviral infections (13%), and malaria (9%). TB was associated with HIV infection, whereas malaria and arboviruses with the absence of HIV infection. Antituberculous chemotherapy was associated with survival (adjusted odds ratio for 28-day death, 0.17; 95% credible interval, 0.05-0.49 for receipt of antituberculous therapy). Of those with confirmed etiology, 83% received the broad-spectrum antibacterial ceftriaxone, but it would be expected to be active in only 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis in Blantyre, Malawi, is caused by a range of pathogens; the majority are not susceptible to the broad-spectrum antibacterials that most patients receive. HIV status is a key determinant of etiology. Novel antimicrobial strategies for sepsis tailored to sub-Saharan Africa, including consideration of empiric antituberculous therapy in individuals living with HIV, should be developed and trialed.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection prevalence, diagnosis, and mortality risk in seriously ill adults with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND: The clinical and epidemiological significance of HIV-associated Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection (BSI) is incompletely understood. We hypothesised that M tuberculosis BSI prevalence has been underestimated, that it independently predicts death, and that sputum Xpert MTB/RIF has suboptimal diagnostic yield for M tuberculosis BSI. METHODS: We did a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies performing routine mycobacterial blood culture in a prospectively defined patient population of people with HIV aged 13 years or older. Studies were identified through searching PubMed and Scopus up to Nov 10, 2018, without language or date restrictions and through manual review of reference lists. Risk of bias in the included studies was assessed with an adapted QUADAS-2 framework. IPD were requested for all identified studies and subject to harmonised inclusion criteria: age 13 years or older, HIV positivity, available CD4 cell count, a valid mycobacterial blood culture result (excluding patients with missing data from lost or contaminated blood cultures), and meeting WHO definitions for suspected tuberculosis (presence of screening symptom). Predicted probabilities of M tuberculosis BSI from mixed-effects modelling were used to estimate prevalence. Estimates of diagnostic yield of sputum testing with Xpert (or culture if Xpert was unavailable) and of urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) testing for M tuberculosis BSI were obtained by two-level random-effect meta-analysis. Estimates of mortality associated with M tuberculosis BSI were obtained by mixed-effect Cox proportional-hazard modelling and of effect of treatment delay on mortality by propensity-score analysis. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number 42016050022. FINDINGS:We identified 23 datasets for inclusion (20 published and three unpublished at time of search) and obtained IPD from 20, representing 96·2% of eligible IPD. Risk of bias for the included studies was assessed to be generally low except for on the patient selection domain, which was moderate in most studies. 5751 patients met harmonised IPD-level inclusion criteria. Technical factors such as number of blood cultures done, timing of blood cultures relative to blood sampling, and patient factors such as inpatient setting and CD4 cell count, explained significant heterogeneity between primary studies. The predicted probability of M tuberculosis BSI in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis, WHO danger signs, and a CD4 count of 76 cells per µL (the median for the cohort) was 45% (95% CI 38­52). The diagnostic yield of sputum in patients with M tuberculosis BSI was 77% (95% CI 63­87), increasing to 89% (80­94) when combined with urine LAM testing. Presence of M tuberculosis BSI compared with its absence in patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis increased risk of death before 30 days (adjusted hazard ratio 2·48, 95% CI 2·05­3·08) but not after 30 days (1·25, 0·84­2·49). In a propensity-score matched cohort of participants with HIV-associated tuberculosis (n=630), mortality increased in patients with M tuberculosis BSI who had a delay in anti-tuberculosis treatment of longer than 4 days compared with those who had no delay (odds ratio 3·15, 95% CI 1·16­8·84). INTERPRETATION:In critically ill adults with HIV-tuberculosis, M tuberculosis BSI is a frequent manifestation of tuberculosis and predicts mortality within 30 days. Improved diagnostic yield in patients with M tuberculosis BSI could be achieved through combined use of sputum Xpert and urine LAM. Anti-tuberculosis treatment delay might increase the risk of mortality in these patients

Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection prevalence, diagnosis, and mortality risk in seriously ill adults with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: The clinical and epidemiological significance of HIV-associated Mycobacterium tuberculosis bloodstream infection (BSI) is incompletely understood. We hypothesised that M tuberculosis BSI prevalence has been underestimated, that it independently predicts death, and that sputum Xpert MTB/RIF has suboptimal diagnostic yield for M tuberculosis BSI. METHODS: We did a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies performing routine mycobacterial blood culture in a prospectively defined patient population of people with HIV aged 13 years or older. Studies were identified through searching PubMed and Scopus up to Nov 10, 2018, without language or date restrictions and through manual review of reference lists. Risk of bias in the included studies was assessed with an adapted QUADAS-2 framework. IPD were requested for all identified studies and subject to harmonised inclusion criteria: age 13 years or older, HIV positivity, available CD4 cell count, a valid mycobacterial blood culture result (excluding patients with missing data from lost or contaminated blood cultures), and meeting WHO definitions for suspected tuberculosis (presence of screening symptom). Predicted probabilities of M tuberculosis BSI from mixed-effects modelling were used to estimate prevalence. Estimates of diagnostic yield of sputum testing with Xpert (or culture if Xpert was unavailable) and of urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) testing for M tuberculosis BSI were obtained by two-level random-effect meta-analysis. Estimates of mortality associated with M tuberculosis BSI were obtained by mixed-effect Cox proportional-hazard modelling and of effect of treatment delay on mortality by propensity-score analysis. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number 42016050022. FINDINGS: We identified 23 datasets for inclusion (20 published and three unpublished at time of search) and obtained IPD from 20, representing 96·2% of eligible IPD. Risk of bias for the included studies was assessed to be generally low except for on the patient selection domain, which was moderate in most studies. 5751 patients met harmonised IPD-level inclusion criteria. Technical factors such as number of blood cultures done, timing of blood cultures relative to blood sampling, and patient factors such as inpatient setting and CD4 cell count, explained significant heterogeneity between primary studies. The predicted probability of M tuberculosis BSI in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis, WHO danger signs, and a CD4 count of 76 cells per µL (the median for the cohort) was 45% (95% CI 38-52). The diagnostic yield of sputum in patients with M tuberculosis BSI was 77% (95% CI 63-87), increasing to 89% (80-94) when combined with urine LAM testing. Presence of M tuberculosis BSI compared with its absence in patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis increased risk of death before 30 days (adjusted hazard ratio 2·48, 95% CI 2·05-3·08) but not after 30 days (1·25, 0·84-2·49). In a propensity-score matched cohort of participants with HIV-associated tuberculosis (n=630), mortality increased in patients with M tuberculosis BSI who had a delay in anti-tuberculosis treatment of longer than 4 days compared with those who had no delay (odds ratio 3·15, 95% CI 1·16-8·84). INTERPRETATION: In critically ill adults with HIV-tuberculosis, M tuberculosis BSI is a frequent manifestation of tuberculosis and predicts mortality within 30 days. Improved diagnostic yield in patients with M tuberculosis BSI could be achieved through combined use of sputum Xpert and urine LAM. Anti-tuberculosis treatment delay might increase the risk of mortality in these patients. FUNDING: This study was supported by Wellcome fellowships 109105Z/15/A and 105165/Z/14/A.

Population Incidence and Mortality of Sepsis in an Urban African Setting, 2013-2016.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is an important cause of mortality globally, although population incidence estimates from low-income settings, including sub-Saharan Africa, are absent. We aimed to estimate sepsis incidence burden using routinely available data from a large urban hospital in Malawi. METHODS: We linked routine-care databases at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi, to provide admission and discharge data for 217 149 adults from 2013-2016. Using a definition of sepsis based on systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and Blantyre census population data, we calculated population incidence estimates of sepsis and severe sepsis and used negative binomial regression to assess for trends over time. Missing data were multiply imputed with chained equations. RESULTS: We estimate that the incidence rate of emergency department-attending sepsis and severe sepsis in adults was 1772 per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 1754-1789) and 303 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 295-310), respectively, between 2013 and 2016, with a year-on-year decrease in incidence. In-hospital mortality for patients admitted to the hospital with sepsis and severe sepsis was 23.7% (95% CI, 22.7-24.7%) and 28.1% (95% CI, 26.1 - 30.0%), respectively, with no clear change over time. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis incidence is higher in Blantyre, Malawi, than in high-income settings, from where the majority of sepsis incidence data are derived. Worldwide sepsis burden is likely to be underestimated, and data from low-income countries are needed to inform the public health response.

Aetiology and outcomes of sepsis in adults in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aetiology and outcomes of sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) are poorly described; we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the available data. METHODS: Systematic searches of PubMed and Scopus were undertaken to identify prospective studies recruiting adults (> 13 years) with community-acquired sepsis in sSA post-2000. Random effects meta-analysis of in-hospital and 30-day mortality was undertaken and available aetiology data also summarised by random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Fifteen studies of 2800 participants were identified. Inclusion criteria were heterogeneous. The majority of patients were HIV-infected, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis was the most common cause of blood stream infection where sought. Pooled in-hospital mortality for Sepsis-2-defined sepsis and severe sepsis was 19% (95% CI 12-29%) and 39% (95% CI 30-47%) respectively, and sepsis mortality was associated with the proportion of HIV-infected participants. Mortality and morbidity data beyond 30 days were absent. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis in sSA is dominated by HIV and tuberculosis, with poor outcomes. Optimal antimicrobial strategies, including the role of tuberculosis treatment, are unclear. Long-term outcome data are lacking. Standardised sepsis diagnostic criteria that are easily applied in low-resource settings are needed to establish an evidence base for sepsis management in sSA.

Gut mucosal colonisation with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) threaten human health; and, in areas of sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) where carbapenems are not available, may render ESBL-E infections untreatable. Gut mucosal colonisation probably occurs before infection, making prevention of colonisation an attractive target for intervention, but the epidemiology of ESBL-E in sSA is poorly described. Objectives: Describe ESBL-E colonisation prevalence in sSA and risk factors associated with colonisation. Methods: Studies included were prospective cross-sectional or cohort studies reporting gut mucosal ESBL-E colonisation in any population in sSA. We searched PubMed and Scopus on 18 December 2018. We summarise the range of prevalence across sites and tabulated risk factors for colonisation. The protocol was registered (Prospero ID CRD42019123559). Results: From 2975 abstracts we identified 32 studies including a total of 8619 participants from a range of countries and settings. Six studies were longitudinal; no longitudinal studies followed patients beyond hospital discharge.  Prevalence varied between 5 and 84% with a median of 31%, with a relationship to setting: pooled ESBL-E colonisation in community studies was 18% (95% CI 12 to 28, 12 studies); in studies recruiting people at admission to hospital colonisation was 32% (95% CI 24 to 41% 8 studies); and for inpatients, colonisation was 55% (95% CI 49 to 60%, 7 studies). Antimicrobial use was associated with increased risk of ESBL-E colonisation, and protected water sources or water treatment by boiling may reduce risk. Conclusions: ESBL-E colonisation is common in sSA, but how people become carriers and why is not well understood. To inform the design of interventions to interrupt transmission in this setting requires longitudinal, community studies.

Identifying volatile metabolite signatures for the diagnosis of bacterial respiratory tract infection using electronic nose technology: A pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: New point of care diagnostics are urgently needed to reduce the over-prescription of antimicrobials for bacterial respiratory tract infection (RTI). We performed a pilot cross sectional study to assess the feasibility of gas-capillary column ion mobility spectrometer (GC-IMS), for the analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in exhaled breath to diagnose bacterial RTI in hospital inpatients. METHODS: 71 patients were prospectively recruited from the Acute Medical Unit of the Royal Liverpool University Hospital between March and May 2016 and classified as confirmed or probable bacterial or viral RTI on the basis of microbiologic, biochemical and radiologic testing. Breath samples were collected at the patient's bedside directly into the electronic nose device, which recorded a VOC spectrum for each sample. Sparse principal component analysis and sparse logistic regression were used to develop a diagnostic model to classify VOC spectra as being caused by bacterial or non-bacterial RTI. RESULTS: Summary area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.73 (95% CI 0.61-0.86), summary sensitivity and specificity were 62% (95% CI 41-80%) and 80% (95% CI 64-91%) respectively (p = 0.00147). CONCLUSIONS: GC-IMS analysis of exhaled VOC for the diagnosis of bacterial RTI shows promise in this pilot study and further trials are warranted to assess this technique.

Postnatal Evaluation of Cervical Ribs in Control Rats.

BACKGROUND: Cervical ribs in rat fetuses have been widely reported to occur in controls as well as in response to various maternal chemical exposures. However, few evaluations of cervical ribs have been reported in rats postnatally. The available literature has indicated that the postnatal incidences of cervical ribs in control rats are no higher than in perinatal fetuses. METHODS: In a developmental toxicity study in rats conducted by the inhalation route, a control group of 44 time-mated female rats was exposed to filtered air only from gestation day (GD) 6 to 20, and divided into two cohorts. For one cohort, fetuses were removed from dams by laparohysterectomy for skeletal evaluation on GD 21. The other cohort of dams was permitted to deliver, and adult offspring were euthanized on postnatal day 65 for a subsequent postnatal skeletal evaluation of cervical ribs. RESULTS: The incidence of cervical ribs (mean percentage of affected fetuses or adults per litter) was observed to increase during postnatal development, from 1.0% on GD 21 to 12.7% on postnatal day 65. Further evaluation is ongoing to determine whether these observations were attributable to the inhalation exposure conditions used in this study. CONCLUSION: These results, while limited to the evaluation of one skeletal alteration in control rats, support the need for additional research into the area of postnatal development of skeletal abnormalities observed in developmental toxicity studies and the relevance of these skeletal observations to human risk assessment. Birth Defects Research 109:1301-1304, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Real-world persistence with antiretroviral therapy for HIV in the United Kingdom: A multicentre retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Persistence with an antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen for HIV can be defined as the length of time a patient remains on therapy before stopping or switching. We aimed to describe ART persistence in treatment naïve patients starting therapy in the United Kingdom, and to describe differential persistence by treatment regimen. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study at eight UK centres of ART-naïve adults commencing ART between 2012 and 2015. Aggregate data were extracted from local treatment databases. Time to discontinuation was compared for different third agents and NRTI backbones using incidence rates. RESULTS: 1949 patients contributed data to the analysis. Rate of third agent change was 28 per 100 person-years of follow up [95% CI 26-31] and NRTI backbone change of 15 per 100 person-years of follow up [95% CI 14-17]). Rilpivirine, as co-formulated rilpivirine/tenofovir/emtricitabine had a significantly lower discontinuation rate than all other third agents and, excluding single tablet regimens, co-formulated tenofovir/emtricitabine had a significantly lower discontinuation rate than co-formulated abacavir/lamivudine. The reasons for discontinuation were not well recorded. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment discontinuation is not an uncommon event. Rilpivirine had a significantly lower discontinuation rate than other third agents and tenofovir/emtricitabine a lower rate than co-formulated abacavir/lamivudine.

Brucella melitensis prosthetic joint infection in a traveller returning to the UK from Thailand: Case report and review of the literature.

BACKGROUND: Brucella spp. prosthetic joint infections are infrequently reported in the literature, particularly in returning travellers, and optimal treatment is unknown. METHOD: We describe a prosthetic joint infection (PJI) caused by Brucella melitensis in a traveller returning to the UK from Thailand, which we believe to be the first detailed report of brucellosis in a traveller returning from this area. The 23 patients with Brucella-related PJI reported in the literature are summarised, together with our case. RESULTS: The diagnosis of Brucella-related PJI is difficult to make; only 30% of blood cultures and 75% of joint aspiration cultures were positive in the reported cases. Culture of intraoperative samples provides the best diagnostic yield. In the absence of radiological evidence of joint loosening, combination antimicrobial therapy alone may be appropriate treatment in the first instance; this was successful in 6/7 [86%] of patients, though small numbers of patients and the likelihood of reporting bias warrant caution in drawing any firm conclusions about optimal treatment. Aerosolisation of synovial fluid during joint aspiration procedures and nosocomial infection has been described. CONCLUSIONS: Brucella-related PJI should be considered in the differential of travellers returning from endemic areas with PJI, including Thailand. Personal protective equipment including fit tested filtering face piece-3 (FFP3) mask or equivalent is recommended for personnel carrying out joint aspiration when brucellosis is suspected. Travellers can reduce the risk of brucellosis by avoiding unpasteurised dairy products and animal contact (particularly on farms and abattoirs) in endemic areas and should be counselled regarding these risks as part of their pre-travel assessment.