Forecasting changes in physician services per capita in Minnesota through 2030.

As the population ages and the ratio of retirees increases, the likely supply of physicians and physician services over the next few decades is being closely scrutinized. In this article, we use simple regression models to predict the supply of physicians and physician-hours per capita in Minnesota through the year 2030. We present the results from two models. The first uses data on all practicing physicians in the years 1995 to 2000 and projections for the entire population. The second "adjusted" model uses data on physicians who were younger than 65 in the years 1995 to 2000 and projections for the population 65 and older. The adjusted model represents a "worst case scenario" that removes physicians who typically work fewer hours from the count of physicians and retains the population needing the most health care services.