A Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis analysis to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a frequent and potentially lethal complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. Several models have been developed to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula risk. This study was performed to evaluate the quality of reporting of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction models after pancreatoduodenectomy using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist that provides guidelines on reporting prediction models to enhance transparency and to help in the decision-making regarding the implementation of the appropriate risk models into clinical practice. METHODS: Studies that described prediction models to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy were searched according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The TRIPOD checklist was used to evaluate the adherence rate. The area under the curve and other performance measures were extracted if reported. A quadrant matrix chart is created to plot the area under the curve against TRIPOD adherence rate to find models with a combination of above-average TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve. RESULTS: In total, 52 predictive models were included (23 development, 15 external validation, 4 incremental value, and 10 development and external validation). No risk model achieved 100% adherence to the TRIPOD. The mean adherence rate was 65%. Most authors failed to report on missing data and actions to blind assessment of predictors. Thirteen models had an above-average performance for TRIPOD checklist adherence and area under the curve. CONCLUSION: Although the average TRIPOD adherence rate for postoperative pancreatic fistula models after pancreatoduodenectomy was 65%, higher compared to other published models, it does not meet TRIPOD standards for transparency. This study identified 13 models that performed above average in TRIPOD adherence and area under the curve, which could be the appropriate models to be used in clinical practice.

The Costs of Complications and Unplanned Readmissions after Pancreatoduodenectomy for Pancreatic and Periampullary Tumors: Results from a Single Academic Center.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Complications after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) lead to unplanned readmissions (UR), with a two- to threefold increase in admission costs. In this study, we aimed to create an understanding of the costs of complications and UR in this patient group. Furthermore, we aimed to generate a detailed cost overview that can be used to build a theoretical model to calculate the cost efficacy for prehabilitation. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit (DPCA) database of patients who underwent a PD at our institute between 2013 and 2017. The total costs of the index hospital admission and UR related to the PD were collected. RESULTS: Of the 160 patients; 35 patients (22%) had an uncomplicated course; 87 patients (54%) had minor complications, and 38 patients (24%) had severe complications. Median costs for an uncomplicated course were EUR 25.682, and for a complicated course, EUR 32.958 (p = 0.001). The median costs for minor complications were EUR 30.316, and for major complications, EUR 42.664 (p = 0.001). Costs were related to the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI). The median costs of patients with one or more UR were EUR 41.199. CONCLUSIONS: Complications after PD led to a EUR 4.634-EUR 16.982 (18-66%) increase in hospital costs. A UR led to a cost increase of EUR 12.567 (44%). Since hospital costs are directly related to the CCI, reduction in complications will lead to cost-effectiveness.

Alternative Fistula Risk Score for Pancreatoduodenectomy (a-FRS): Design and International External Validation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop an alternative fistula risk score (a-FRS) for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy, without blood loss as a predictor. BACKGROUND: Blood loss, one of the predictors of the original-FRS, was not a significant factor during 2 recent external validations. METHODS: The a-FRS was developed in 2 databases: the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit (18 centers) and the University Hospital Southampton NHS. Primary outcome was grade B/C POPF according to the 2005 International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. The score was externally validated in 2 independent databases (University Hospital of Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania), using both 2005 and 2016 ISGPS definitions. The a-FRS was also compared with the original-FRS. RESULTS: For model design, 1924 patients were included of whom 12% developed POPF. Three predictors were strongly associated with POPF: soft pancreatic texture [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.80-3.69], small pancreatic duct diameter (per mm increase, OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.61-0.76), and high body mass index (BMI) (per kg/m increase, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11). Discrimination was adequate with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.78) after internal validation, and 0.78 (0.74-0.82) after external validation. The predictive capacity of a-FRS was comparable with the original-FRS, both for the 2005 definition (AUC 0.78 vs 0.75, P = 0.03), and 2016 definition (AUC 0.72 vs 0.70, P = 0.05). CONCLUSION: The a-FRS predicts POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy based on 3 easily available variables (pancreatic texture, duct diameter, BMI) without blood loss and pathology, and was successfully validated for both the 2005 and 2016 POPF definition. The online calculator is available at www.pancreascalculator.com.