Aggregated Tau Measured by Visual Interpretation of Flortaucipir Positron Emission Tomography and the Associated Risk of Clinical Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Disease: Results From 2 Phase III Clinical Trials.

Importance: Flortaucipir positron emission tomography (PET) scans, rated with a novel, US Food and Drug Administration-approved, clinically applicable visual interpretation method, provide valuable information regarding near-term clinical progression of patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Objective: To evaluate the association between flortaucipir PET visual interpretation and patients' near-term clinical progression. Design/Setting/Participants: Two prospective, open-label, longitudinal studies were conducted from December 2014 to September 2019. Study 1 screened 298 patients and enrolled 160 participants who had a flortaucipir scan at baseline visit. Study 2 selected 205 participants from the AMARANTH trial, which was terminated after futility analysis. Out of the 2218 AMARANTH participants, 424 had a flortaucipir scan around randomization, but 219 did not complete 18-month clinical dementia rating (CDR) assessments and thus were excluded. In both studies, all participants were diagnosed as clinically impaired, and they were longitudinally followed up for approximately 18 months after baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: Flortaucipir scans were rated as either advanced or nonadvanced AD pattern using a predetermined visual interpretation method. The CDR sum of box (CDR-SB) score was used as primary clinical end point measurement in both studies. Results: Of the 364 study participants who had readable scans, 48% were female (n = 174 of 364), and the mean (SD) age was 71.8 (8.7) years. Two hundred forty participants were rated as having an advanced AD pattern. At 18 months follow-up, 70% of those with an advanced AD pattern (n = 147 of 210) had 1 point or more increase in CDR-SB, an event predefined as clinically meaningful deterioration. In contrast, only 46% of those with a nonadvanced AD pattern scan (n = 48 of 105) experienced the same event (risk ratio [RR], 1.40; 95% CI, 1.11-1.76; P = .005). The adjusted mean CDR-SB changes were 2.28 and 0.98 for advanced and nonadvanced AD pattern groups, respectively (P < .001). Analyses with other clinical end point assessments, as well as analyses with each individual study's data, consistently indicated a higher risk of clinical deterioration associated with an advanced AD scan pattern. Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that flortaucipir PET scans, when interpreted with an US Food and Drug Administration-approved, clinically applicable visual interpretation method, may provide valuable information regarding the risk of clinical deterioration over 18 months among patients with AD and MCI. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02016560 and NCT03901105.

Positron Emission Tomography Imaging With [18F]flortaucipir and Postmortem Assessment of Alzheimer Disease Neuropathologic Changes.

Importance: Positron emission tomography (PET) may increase the diagnostic accuracy and confirm the underlying neuropathologic changes of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective: To determine the accuracy of antemortem [18F]flortaucipir PET images for predicting the presence of AD-type tau pathology at autopsy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic study (A16 primary cohort) was conducted from October 2015 to June 2018 at 28 study sites (27 in US sites and 1 in Australia). Individuals with a terminal illness who were older than 50 years and had a projected life expectancy of less than 6 months were enrolled. All participants underwent [18F]flortaucipir PET imaging, and scans were interpreted by 5 independent nuclear medicine physicians or radiologists. Supplemental autopsy [18F]flortaucipir images and pathological samples were also collected from 16 historically collected cases. A second study (FR01 validation study) was conducted from March 26 to April 26, 2019, in which 5 new readers assessed the original PET images for comparison to autopsy. Main Outcomes and Measures: [18F]flortaucipir PET images were visually assessed and compared with immunohistochemical tau pathology. An AD tau pattern of flortaucipir retention was assessed for correspondence with a postmortem B3-level (Braak stage V or VI) pathological pattern of tau accumulation and to the presence of amyloid-ß plaques sufficient to meet the criteria for high levels of AD neuropathological change. Success was defined as having at least 3 of the 5 readers above the lower bounds of the 95% CI for both sensitivity and specificity of 50% or greater. Results: A total of 156 patients were enrolled in the A16 study and underwent [18F]flortaucipir PET imaging. Of these, 73 died during the study, and valid autopsies were performed for 67 of these patients. Three autopsies were evaluated as test cases and removed from the primary cohort (n = 64). Of the 64 primary cohort patients, 34 (53%) were women and 62 (97%) were white; mean (SD) age was 82.5 (9.6) years; and 49 (77%) had dementia, 1 (2%) had mild cognitive impairment, and 14 (22%) had normal cognition. Prespecified success criteria were met for the A16 primary cohort. The flortaucipir PET scans predicted a B3 level of tau pathology, with sensitivity ranging from 92.3% (95% CI, 79.7%-97.3%) to 100.0% (95% CI, 91.0%-100.0%) and specificity ranging from 52.0% (95% CI, 33.5%-70.0%) to 92.0% (95% CI, 75.0%-97.8%). A high level of AD neuropathological change was predicted with sensitivity of 94.7% (95% CI, 82.7%-98.5%) to 100.0% (95% CI, 90.8%-100.0%) and specificity of 50.0% (95% CI, 32.1%-67.9%) to 92.3% (95% CI, 75.9%-97.9%). The FR01 validation study also met prespecified success criteria. Addition of the supplemental autopsy data set and 3 test cases, which comprised a total of 82 patients and autopsies for both the A16 and FR01 studies, resulted in improved specificity and comparable overall accuracy. Among the 156 enrolled participants, 14 (9%) experienced at least 1 treatment-emergent adverse event. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that PET imaging with [18F]flortaucipir could be used to identify the density and distribution of AD-type tau pathology and the presence of high levels of AD neuropathological change, supporting a neuropathological diagnosis of AD.