A novel machine learning prediction model for metastasis in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) metastasis is the common cause of high mortality. Conventional prognostic criteria cannot accurately predict the BC metastasis risk. The machine learning technologies can overcome the disadvantage of conventional models. AIM: We developed a model to predict BC metastasis using the random survival forest (RSF) method. METHODS: Based on demographic data and routine clinical data, we used RSF-recursive feature elimination to identify the predictive variables and developed a model to predict metastasis using RSF method. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Kaplan-Meier survival (KM) analyses were plotted to validate the predictive effect when C-index was plotted to assess the discrimination and Brier scores was plotted to assess the calibration of the predictive model. RESULTS: We developed a metastasis prediction model comprising three variables (pathological stage, aspartate aminotransferase, and neutrophil count) selected by RSF-recursive feature elimination. The model was reliable and stable when assessed by the AUROC (0.932 in training set and 0.905 in validation set) and KM survival analyses (p < .0001). The C-indexes (0.959) and Brier score (0.097) also validated the good predictive ability of this model. CONCLUSIONS: This model relies on routine data and examination indicators in real-time clinical practice and exhibits an accurate prediction performance without increasing the cost for patients. Using this model, clinicians can facilitate risk communication and provide precise and efficient individualized therapy to patients with breast cancer.

Development and Validation of a New Multiparametric Random Survival Forest Predictive Model for Breast Cancer Recurrence with a Potential Benefit to Individual Outcomes.

Purpose: Breast cancer (BC) is a multi-factorial disease. Its individual prognosis varies; thus, individualized patient profiling is instrumental to improving BC management and individual outcomes. An economical, multiparametric, and practical model to predict BC recurrence is needed. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively investigated the clinical data of BC patients treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University and Liuzhou Women and Children's Medical Center from January 2013 to December 2020. Random forest-recursive feature elimination (run by R caret package) was used to determine the best variable set, and the random survival forest method was used to develop a predictive model for BC recurrence. Results: The training and validations sets included 623 and 151 patients, respectively. We selected 14 variables, the pathological (TNM) stage, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, total cholesterol, Ki-67, lymphocyte count, low-density lipoprotein, age, apolipoprotein B, high-density lipoprotein, globulin, neutrophil count to lymphocyte count ratio, alanine aminotransferase, triglyceride, and albumin to globulin ratio, using random survival forest (RSF)-recursive feature elimination. We developed a recurrence prediction model using RSF. Using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, the model performance was determined to be accurate. C-indexes were 0.997 and 0.936 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Conclusion: The model could accurately predict BC recurrence. It aids clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and making treatment decisions for Breast cancer patients in China. This new multiparametric RSF model is instrumental for breast cancer recurrence prediction and potentially improves individual outcomes.