Crude Oil Prices Forecast Based on Mixed-Frequency Deep Learning Approach and Intelligent Optimization Algorithm.

Precisely forecasting the price of crude oil is challenging due to its fundamental properties of nonlinearity, volatility, and stochasticity. This paper introduces a novel hybrid model, namely, the KV-MFSCBA-G model, within the decomposition-integration paradigm. It combines the mixed-frequency convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-term memory network-attention mechanism (MFCBA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The MFCBA and GARCH models are employed to respectively forecast the low-frequency and high-frequency components decomposed through variational mode decomposition optimized by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL-VMD). The classification of these components is performed using the fuzzy entropy (FE) algorithm. Therefore, this model can fully exploit the advantages of deep learning networks in fitting nonlinearities and traditional econometric models in capturing volatilities. Furthermore, the intelligent optimization algorithm and the low-frequency economic variable are introduced to improve forecasting performance. Specifically, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is employed to determine the optimal parameter combination of the MFCBA model, which is incorporated with monthly global economic conditions (GECON) data. The empirical findings of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil indicate that the proposed approach outperforms other models in evaluation indicators and statistical tests and has good robustness. This model can assist investors and market regulators in making decisions.

Which news topics drive economic prosperity in China?

Precise and real-time measurements of economic prosperity are vital to a country's economic system. This study aims to identify news topics that promoted economic prosperity in China from 2011-2021. By extracting economic topics from news text data, we construct a news coincidence index with comprehensive information and strong timeliness and reveal the trend of topic contribution. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model is applied to extract economic topics from the news. We use a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model to track rapid economic development without using high-frequency weekly and daily data. We identify the six most influential topics and investigate their evolution, which may serve as a reference for economic construction and regulation.