The use of an integrated framework combining eco-evolutionary data and species distribution models to predict range shifts of species under changing climates.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools that can predict potential distributions of species under climate change. However, traditional SDMs that rely on current species occurrences may underestimate their climatic tolerances and potential distributions. To address this limitation, we developed an integrated framework that incorporates eco-evolutionary data into SDMs. In our approach, the fundamental niches of species are constructed by their realized niches in different periods, and those fundamental niches are used to predict potential distributions of species. Our framework includes multiple phylogenetic analyses, such as niche evolution rate estimation and ancestral area reconstruction. These analyses provide deeper insights into the responses of species to climate change. We applied our approach to the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex to evaluate its efficacy through comprehensive performance evaluations and validation tests. Our framework can be applied broadly to species with available phylogenetic data and occurrence records, making it a valuable tool for understanding species adaptation in a rapidly changing world.•Integrating the niches of species in different periods estimates more complete climatic envelopes for them.•Combining eco-evolutionary data with SDMs predicts more comprehensive potential distributions of species under climate change.•Our framework provides a general procedure for species with phylogenetic data and occurrence records.

Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change.

As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.

Hyb-Seq provides new insights into the phylogeny and evolution of the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex in China.

A species complex is an assemblage of closely related species with blurred boundaries, and from which species could arise from different speciation processes and/or a speciation continuum. Such a complex can provide an opportunity to investigate evolutionary mechanisms acting on speciation. The Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex in China, a monophyletic group of Chrysanthemum, consists of seven species with considerable morphological variation, diverse habitats and different distribution patterns. Here, we used Hyb-Seq data to construct a well-resolved phylogeny of the C. zawadskii complex. Then, we performed comparative analyses of variation patterns in morphology, ecology and distribution to investigate the roles of geography and ecology in this complex's diversification. Lastly, we implemented divergence time estimation, species distribution modelling and ancestral area reconstruction to trace the evolutionary history of this complex. We concluded that the C. zawadskii complex originated in the Qinling-Daba mountains during the early Pliocene and then spread west and northward along the mountain ranges to northern China. During this process, geographical and ecological factors imposing different influences resulted in the current diversification and distribution patterns of this species complex, which is composed of both well-diverged species and diverging lineages on the path of speciation.

Differentiation of Cold Tolerance in an Artificial Population of a Mangrove Species, Kandelia obovata, Is Associated With Geographic Origins.

Temperature is one of the climatic factors that shape the geographic distribution of plant populations. Mangroves are temperature-sensitive plants, and their distributions are severely limited by low temperatures. It is unknown, however, to what extent temperature contributes to their population differentiation and evolution. Kandelia obovata (Rhizophoraceae) is a mangrove species with high cold tolerance in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigated the phenotypic responses of an artificial population of K. obovata, with plants transplanted from different source populations, to extremely low temperatures during winter of 2015-2016 in Yueqing County (28°20'N), Zhejiang Province of China. Using two binary traits, "with/without leaves alive on the branches" and "with/without alive buds on the tips of branches," we classified plants in this artificial population into strong, moderate and poor cold resistance groups. We further assessed the genetic diversity, structure and differentiation of these three groups, as well as five natural populations along a latitudinal gradient using ten nuclear and six plastid microsatellite markers. Microsatellite data revealed genetic differentiation among the natural populations along the latitudinal gradient. Molecular data indicated that the cold tolerance of three groups in the artificial population was associated with their geographic origins, and that the most cold-tolerant group came from the northernmost natural population. Our study thus indicates that natural populations of K. obovata may have evolved divergent capacity of cold tolerance.