Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands.

Methane (CH4) mole fractions from the large semiseasonal Llanos de Moxos wetlands (∼70,000 km2) in northern Bolivia were measured by aircraft flights and ground sampling during early March 2019 (late wet season). Daily fluxes of CH4 determined from the measurements using box models and inverse modeling were between 168 (± 50) and 456 (± 145) mg CH4⋅m-2⋅d-1 for the areas overflown, very high compared with those of previous Amazon basin studies. If the seasonality of the CH4 emissions is comparable to other parts of the Amazon Basin, the region could contribute as much as 8% of annual Amazonian CH4 emissions.

Phenology is the dominant control of methane emissions in a tropical non-forested wetland.

Tropical wetlands are a significant source of atmospheric methane (CH4), but their importance to the global CH4 budget is uncertain due to a paucity of direct observations. Net wetland emissions result from complex interactions and co-variation between microbial production and oxidation in the soil, and transport to the atmosphere. Here we show that phenology is the overarching control of net CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from a permanent, vegetated tropical swamp in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, and we find that vegetative processes modulate net CH4 emissions at sub-daily to inter-annual timescales. Without considering the role played by papyrus on regulating the efflux of CH4 to the atmosphere, the annual budget for the entire Okavango Delta, would be under- or over-estimated by a factor of two. Our measurements demonstrate the importance of including vegetative processes such as phenological cycles into wetlands emission budgets of CH4.

Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights.

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ13CCH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ13CCH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ13CCH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ13CCH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ13CCH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ13CCH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ13CCH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

The added value of satellite observations of methane forunderstanding the contemporary methane budget.

Surface observations have recorded large and incompletely understood changes to atmospheric methane (CH4) this century. However, their ability to reveal the responsible surface sources and sinks is limited by their geographical distribution, which is biased towards the northern midlatitudes. Data from Earth-orbiting satellites designed specifically to measure atmospheric CH4 have been available since 2009 with the launch of the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We assess the added value of GOSAT to data collected by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which have been the lynchpin for knowledge about atmospheric CH4 since the 1980s. To achieve that we use the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry transport model and an inverse method to infer a posteriori flux estimates from the NOAA and GOSAT data using common a priori emission inventories. We find the main benefit of GOSAT data is from its additional coverage over the tropics where we report large increases since the 2014/2016 El Niño, driven by biomass burning, biogenic emissions and energy production. We use data from the European TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument to show how better spatial coverage and resolution measurements allow us to quantify previously unattainable diffuse sources of CH4, thereby opening up a new research frontier. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Atmospheric HCFC-22, HFC-125, and HFC-152a at Cape Point, South Africa.

One hydrochlorofluorocarbon and two hydrofluorocarbons (HCFC-22, HFC-125, and HFC-152a) were measured in air samples at the Cape Point observatory (CPT), South Africa, during 2017. These data represent the first such atmospheric measurements of these compounds from southwestern South Africa (SWSA). Baseline atmospheric growth rates were estimated to be 8.36, 4.10, and 0.71 ppt year-1 for HCFC-22, HFC-125, and HFC-152a, respectively. The CPT measurements were combined with an inverse model to investigate emissions from SWSA. For all three halocarbons, Cape Town was found to be the dominant source within SWSA. These estimates were extrapolated, based on population statistics, to estimate emissions for the whole of South Africa. We estimate South Africa's 2017 emissions to be 3.0 (1.6-4.4), 0.8 (0.5-1.2), and 1.1 (0.6-1.6) Gg year-1 for HCFC-22, HFC-125, and HFC-152a, respectively. For all three halocarbons, South Africa's contribution to global emissions is small (<2.5%), but future monitoring is needed to ensure South Africa's compliance with regulation set out by the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments.

Atmospheric observations show accurate reporting and little growth in India's methane emissions.

Changes in tropical wetland, ruminant or rice emissions are thought to have played a role in recent variations in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations. India has the world's largest ruminant population and produces ~ 20% of the world's rice. Therefore, changes in these sources could have significant implications for global warming. Here, we infer India's CH4 emissions for the period 2010-2015 using a combination of satellite, surface and aircraft data. We apply a high-resolution atmospheric transport model to simulate data from these platforms to infer fluxes at sub-national scales and to quantify changes in rice emissions. We find that average emissions over this period are 22.0 (19.6-24.3) Tg yr-1, which is consistent with the emissions reported by India to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change. Annual emissions have not changed significantly (0.2 ± 0.7 Tg yr-1) between 2010 and 2015, suggesting that major CH4 sources did not change appreciably. These findings are in contrast to another major economy, China, which has shown significant growth in recent years due to increasing fossil fuel emissions. However, the trend in a global emission inventory has been overestimated for China due to incorrect rate of fossil fuel growth. Here, we find growth has been overestimated in India but likely due to ruminant and waste sectors.India's methane emissions have been quantified using atmospheric measurements to provide an independent comparison with reported emissions. Here Ganesan et al. find that derived methane emissions are consistent with India's reports and no significant trend has been observed between 2010-2015.

Role of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth.

The growth in global methane (CH4) concentration, which had been ongoing since the industrial revolution, stalled around the year 2000 before resuming globally in 2007. We evaluate the role of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the major CH4 sink, in the recent CH4 growth. We also examine the influence of systematic uncertainties in OH concentrations on CH4 emissions inferred from atmospheric observations. We use observations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), which is lost primarily through reaction with OH, to estimate OH levels as well as CH3CC3 emissions, which have uncertainty that previously limited the accuracy of OH estimates. We find a 64-70% probability that a decline in OH has contributed to the post-2007 methane rise. Our median solution suggests that CH4 emissions increased relatively steadily during the late 1990s and early 2000s, after which growth was more modest. This solution obviates the need for a sudden statistically significant change in total CH4 emissions around the year 2007 to explain the atmospheric observations and can explain some of the decline in the atmospheric 13CH4/12CH4 ratio and the recent growth in C2H6 Our approach indicates that significant OH-related uncertainties in the CH4 budget remain, and we find that it is not possible to implicate, with a high degree of confidence, rapid global CH4 emissions changes as the primary driver of recent trends when our inferred OH trends and these uncertainties are considered.

Reconciling reported and unreported HFC emissions with atmospheric observations.

We infer global and regional emissions of five of the most abundant hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) using atmospheric measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, networks. We find that the total CO2-equivalent emissions of the five HFCs from countries that are required to provide detailed, annual reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) increased from 198 (175-221) Tg-CO2-eq ⋅ y(-1) in 2007 to 275 (246-304) Tg-CO2-eq ⋅ y(-1) in 2012. These global warming potential-weighted aggregated emissions agree well with those reported to the UNFCCC throughout this period and indicate that the gap between reported emissions and global HFC emissions derived from atmospheric trends is almost entirely due to emissions from nonreporting countries. However, our measurement-based estimates of individual HFC species suggest that emissions, from reporting countries, of the most abundant HFC, HFC-134a, were only 79% (63-95%) of the UNFCCC inventory total, while other HFC emissions were significantly greater than the reported values. These results suggest that there are inaccuracies in the reporting methods for individual HFCs, which appear to cancel when aggregated together.