Performance of a Novel Muscle Synergy Approach for Continuous Motion Estimation on Untrained Motion (March 2024).

When applying continuous motion estimation (CME) model based on sEMG to human-robot system, it is inevitable to encounter scenarios in which the motions performed by the user are different from the motions in the training stage of the model. It has been demonstrated that the prediction accuracy of the currently effective approaches on untrained motions will be significantly reduced. Therefore, we proposed a novel CME method by introducing muscle synergy as feature to achieve better prediction accuracy on untrained motion tasks. Specifically, deep non-smooth NMF (Deep-nsNMF) was firstly introduced on synergy extraction to improve the efficiency of synergy decomposition. After obtaining the activation primitives from various training motions, we proposed a redundancy classification algorithm (RC) to identify shared and task-specific synergies, optimizing the original redundancy segmentation algorithm (RS). NARX neural network was set as the regression model for training. Finally, the model was tested on prediction tasks of eight untrained motions. The prediction accuracy of the proposed method was found to perform better than using time-domain feature as input of the network. Through Deep-nsNMF with RS, the highest accuracy reached 99.7%. Deep-nsNMF with RC performed similarly well and its stability was relatively higher among different motions and subjects. Limitation of the approach is that the problem of positive correlation between the prediction error and the absolute value of real angle remains to be further addressed. Generally, this research demonstrates the potential for CME models to perform well in complex scenarios, providing the feasibility of dedicating CME to real-world applications.

Effects of grain intervention on hypothalamic function and the metabolome of blood and milk in dairy cows.

BACKGROUND: The hypothalamus plays a crucial role in the health and productivity of dairy cows, yet studies on its functionality and its impact on peripheral circulation in these animals are relatively scarce, particularly regarding dietary interventions. Therefore, our study undertook a comprehensive analysis, incorporating both metabolomics and transcriptomics, to explore the effects of a grain-based diet on the functionality of the hypothalamus, as well as on blood and milk in dairy cows. RESULTS: The hypothalamic metabolome analysis revealed a significant reduction in prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) level as a prominent response to the grain-based diet introduction. Furthermore, the hypothalamic transcriptome profiling showed a notable upregulation in amino acid metabolism due to the grain-based diet. Conversely, the grain-based diet led to the downregulation of genes involved in the metabolic pathway from lecithin to PGE2, including phospholipase A2 (PLA2G4E, PLA2G2A, and PLA2G12B), cyclooxygenase-2 (COX2), and prostaglandin E synthase (PTGES). Additionally, the plasma metabolome analysis indicated a substantial decrease in the level of PGE2, along with a decline in adrenal steroid hormones (tetrahydrocortisol and pregnenolone) following the grain-based diet introduction. Analysis of the milk metabolome showed that the grain-based diet significantly increased uric acid level while notably decreasing PGE2 level. Importantly, PGE2 was identified as a critical metabolic marker in the hypothalamus, blood, and milk in response to grain intervention. Correlation analysis demonstrated a significant correlation among metabolic alterations in the hypothalamus, blood, and milk following the grain-based diet. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a potential link between hypothalamic changes and alterations in peripheral circulation resulting from the introduction of a grain-based diet.

Differential Burden of HIV Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women by Places Associated With Sex Work: An Observational Study in Mombasa, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The design of HIV prevention programs for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are informed by data on who is at highest risk and where they can be reached. Places (hotspots) associated with selling sex are an established outreach strategy for sex work (SW) programs but could be used to reach other AGYW at high risk. SETTING: This study took place in Mombasa, Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, bio-behavioural survey among (N = 1193) sexually active AGYW aged 14-24 years recruited at hotspots. We compared HIV prevalence by subgroup (SW; transactional sex, TS; and non-transactional sex), stratified by hotspot type (venues and nonvenues). We examined whether associations between HIV prevalence and hotspot/subgroup remained after adjustment for individual-level risk factors, and estimated HIV prevalence ratio with and without adjustment for these individual-level factors. RESULTS: Overall HIV prevalence was 5.6%, 5.3% in venues and 7.3% in nonvenues. Overall SW HIV prevalence was 2-fold higher than among participants engaged in nontransactional sex. After adjusting for age and individual-level risk factors, HIV prevalence was 2.72 times higher among venue-based SWs (95% confidence interval: 1.56 to 4.85) and 2.11 times higher among nonvenue AGYW not engaged in SW (95% confidence interval: 0.97 to 4.30) compared with venue-based AGYW not engaged in SW. CONCLUSION: AGYW who sell sex remain at high risk of HIV across types of hotspots. The residual pattern of elevated HIV burden by AGWY subgroup and hotspot type suggests that unmeasured, network-level factors underscore differential risks. As such, hotspots constitute a "place" to reach AGYW at high risk of HIV.

HR-BGCN : Predicting readmission for heart failure from electronic health records.

Heart failure has become a huge public health problem, and failure to accurately predict readmission will further lead to the disease's high cost and high mortality. The construction of readmission prediction model can assist doctors in making decisions to prevent patients from deteriorating and reduce the cost burden. This paper extracts the patient discharge records from the MIMIC-III database. It divides the patients into three research categories: no readmission, readmission within 30 days, and readmission after 30 days, to predict the readmission of patients. We propose the HR-BGCN model to predict the readmission of patients. First, we use the Adaptive-TMix to improve the prediction indicators of a few categories and reduce the impact of unbalanced categories. Then, the knowledge-informed graph attention mechanism is proposed. By introducing a document-level explicit diagram structure, the coding ability of graph node features is significantly improved. The paragraph-level representation obtained through graph learning is combined with the context token-level representation of BERT, and finally, the multi-classification task is carried out. We also compare several typical graph learning classification models to verify the model's effectiveness, such as the IA-GCN model, GAT model, etc. The results show that the average F1 score of the HR-BGCN model proposed in this paper for 30-day readmission of heart failure patients is 88.26%, and the average accuracy is 90.47%. The HR-BGCN model is significantly better than the graph learning classification model for predicting heart failure readmission. It can help doctors predict the 30-day readmission of patients, then reduce the readmission rate of patients.

Lysosome-related biomarkers in preeclampsia and cancers: Machine learning and bioinformatics analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lysosomes serve as regulatory hubs, and play a pivotal role in human diseases. However, the precise functions and mechanisms of action of lysosome-related genes remain unclear in preeclampsia and cancers. This study aimed to identify lysosome-related biomarkers in preeclampsia, and further explore the biomarkers shared between preeclampsia and cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained GSE60438 and GSE75010 datasets from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, pre-procesed them and merged them into a training cohort. The limma package in R was used to identify the differentially expressed mRNAs between the preeclampsia and normal control groups. Differentially expressed lysosome-related genes were identified by intersecting the differentially expressed mRNAs and lysosome-related genes obtained from Gene Ontology and GSEA databases. Gene Ontology annotations and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment analysis were performed using the DAVID database. The CIBERSORT method was used to analyze immune cell infiltration. Weighted gene co-expression analyses and three machine learning algorithm were used to identify lysosome-related diagnostic biomarkers. Lysosome-related diagnostic biomarkers were further validated in the testing cohort GSE25906. Nomogram diagnostic models for preeclampsia were constructed. In addition, pan-cancer analysis of lysosome-related diagnostic biomarkers were identified by was performed using the TIMER, Sangebox and TISIDB databases. Finally, the Drug-Gene Interaction, TheMarker and DSigDB Databases were used for drug-gene interactions analysis. RESULTS: A total of 11 differentially expressed lysosome-related genes were identified between the preeclampsia and control groups. Three molecular clusters connected to lysosome were identified, and enrichment analysis demonstrated their strong relevance to the development and progression of preeclampsia. Immune infiltration analysis revealed significant immunity heterogeneity among different clusters. GBA, OCRL, TLR7 and HEXB were identified as lysosome-related diagnostic biomarkers with high AUC values, and validated in the testing cohort GSE25906. Nomogram, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis confirmed the accuracy of predicting the occurrence of preeclampsia based on OCRL and HEXB. Pan-cancer analysis showed that GBA, OCRL, TLR7 and HEXB were associated with the prognosis of patients with various tumors and tumor immune cell infiltration. Twelve drugs were identified as potential drugs for the treatment of preeclampsia and cancers. CONCLUSION: This study identified GBA, OCRL, TLR7 and HEXB as potential lysosome-related diagnostic biomarkers shared between preeclampsia and cancers.

Quantifying the impact of cascade inequalities: a modelling study on the prevention impacts of antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Eswatini.

Background: Inequalities in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) cascade across subpopulations remain an ongoing challenge in the global HIV response. Eswatini achieved the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets by 2020, with differentiated programs to minimize inequalities across subpopulations, including for female sex workers (FSW) and their clients. We sought to estimate additional HIV infections expected in Eswatini if cascade scale-up had not been equal, and under which epidemic conditions these inequalities could have the largest influence. Methods: Drawing on population-level and FSW-specific surveys in Eswatini, we developed a compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission which included eight subpopulations and four sexual partnership types. We calibrated the model to stratified HIV prevalence, incidence, and ART cascade data. Taking observed cascade scale-up in Eswatini as the base-case-reaching 95-95-95 in the overall population by 2020-we defined four counterfactual scenarios in which the population overall reached 80-80-90 by 2020, but where FSW, clients, both, or neither were disproportionately left behind, reaching only 60-40-80. We quantified relative additional cumulative HIV infections by 2030 in counterfactual vs base-case scenarios. We further estimated linear effects of viral suppression gap among FSW and clients on additional infections by 2030, plus effect modification by FSW/client population sizes, rates of turnover, and HIV prevalence ratios. Results: Compared with the base-case scenario, leaving behind neither FSW nor their clients led to the fewest additional infections by 2030: median (95% credible interval) 14.9 (10.4, 18.4)% vs 26.3 (19.7, 33.0)% if both were left behind-a 73 (40, 149)% increase. The effect of lower cascade on additional infections was larger for clients vs FSW, and both effects increased with population size and relative HIV incidence. Conclusions: Inequalities in the ART cascade across subpopulations can undermine the anticipated prevention impacts of cascade scale-up. As Eswatini has shown, addressing inequalities in the ART cascade, particularly those that intersect with high transmission risk, could maximize incidence reductions from cascade scale-up.

Longitudinal Analysis of Mpox Virus DNA Detectability From Multiple Specimen Types During Acute Illness: A Cohort Study.

Background: Longitudinal data on the detectability of monkeypox virus (MPXV) genetic material in different specimen types are scarce. Methods: We describe MPXV-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results from adults with confirmed mpox infection from Toronto, Canada, including a cohort undergoing weekly collection of specimens from multiple anatomic sites until 1 week after skin lesions had fully healed. We quantified the time from symptom onset to resolution of detectable viral DNA (computed tomography [Ct] ≥ 35) by modeling exponential decay in Ct value as a function of illness day for each site, censoring at the time of tecovirimat initiation. Results: Among 64 men who have sex with men, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 39 (32.75-45.25) years, and 49% had HIV. Twenty received tecovirimat. Viral DNA was detectable (Ct < 35) at baseline in 74% of genital/buttock/perianal skin swabs, 56% of other skin swabs, 44% of rectal swabs, 37% of throat swabs, 27% of urine, 26% of nasopharyngeal swabs, and 8% of semen samples. The median time to resolution of detectable DNA (IQR) was longest for genital/buttock/perianal skin and other skin swabs at 30.0 (23.0-47.9) and 22.4 (16.6-29.4) days, respectively, and shortest for nasopharyngeal swabs and semen at 0 (0-12.1) and 0 (0-0) days, respectively. We did not observe an effect of tecovirimat on the rate of decay in viral DNA detectability in any specimen type (all P > .05). Conclusions: MPXV DNA detectability varies by specimen type and persists for over 3-4 weeks in skin specimens. The rate of decay did not differ by tecovirimat use in this nonrandomized study.

Associations of early pregnancy serum uric acid levels with risk of gestational diabetes and birth outcomes: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous evidence suggests that higher blood uric acid (UA) levels are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes during pregnancy and subsequent birth outcomes. However, it has been relatively unclear whether these associations persist in normotensive pregnant women. METHODS: The study was based on a retrospective analysis of 18,250 mother-infant pairs in a large obstetric center in China. Serum UA concentrations in early pregnancy (median: 17.6, IQR: 16.3, 18.6 gestational weeks) were assessed. Hyperuricemia was defined as ≥ one standard deviation (SD) of the reference value for the corresponding gestational age. Outcomes of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), preterm birth (PB), low birth weight (LBW), macrosomia, small for gestational age (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA) were extracted from the medical records. RESULTS: The mean maternal UA level was 0.22 ± 0.05 mmol/L, and 2,896 (15.9%) subjects had hyperuricemia. After adjustment for several covariates, UA was associated with several adverse outcomes. The ORs (95%CI) per one SD increase in serum UA concentration were 1.250 (1.136, 1.277) for GDM, 1.137 (1.060, 1.221) for PB, 1.134 (1.051, 1.223) for LBW, and 1.077 (1.020, 1.137) for SGA, respectively. Similar adverse associations were found between hyperuricemia and GDM, PB (ORs: 1.394 and 1.385, P < 0.001), but not for LBW, macrosomia, SGA, and LGA. Adverse associations tended to be more pronounced in subjects with higher BMI for outcomes including PB, LBW, and SGA (P interaction = 0.001-0.028). CONCLUSION: Higher UA levels in early pregnancy were associated with higher risk of GDM, PB, LBW, and SGA in normotensive Chinese women.

Impact of a vaccine passport on first-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage by age and area-level social determinants of health in the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, all provinces implemented vaccine passports in 2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in non-essential indoor spaces and increase vaccine uptake (policies active September 2021-March 2022 in Quebec and Ontario). We sought to evaluate the impact of vaccine passport policies on first-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage by age, and area-level income and proportion of racialized residents. METHODS: We performed interrupted time series analyses using data from Quebec's and Ontario's vaccine registries linked to census information (population of 20.5 million people aged ≥ 12 yr; unit of analysis: dissemination area). We fit negative binomial regressions to first-dose vaccinations, using natural splines adjusting for baseline vaccination coverage (start: July 2021; end: October 2021 for Quebec, November 2021 for Ontario). We obtained counterfactual vaccination rates and coverage, and estimated the absolute and relative impacts of vaccine passports. RESULTS: In both provinces, first-dose vaccination coverage before the announcement of vaccine passports was 82% (age ≥ 12 yr). The announcement resulted in estimated increases in coverage of 0.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4-1.2) in Quebec and 0.7 percentage points (95% CI 0.5-0.8) in Ontario. This corresponds to 23% (95% CI 10%-36%) and 19% (95% CI 15%-22%) more vaccinations over 11 weeks. The impact was larger among people aged 12-39 years. Despite lower coverage in lower-income and more-racialized areas, there was little variability in the absolute impact by area-level income or proportion racialized in either province. INTERPRETATION: In the context of high vaccine coverage across 2 provinces, the announcement of vaccine passports had a small impact on first-dose coverage, with little impact on reducing economic and racial inequities in vaccine coverage. Findings suggest that other policies are needed to improve vaccination coverage among lower-income and racialized neighbourhoods and communities.

Changes in context, typology and programme outcomes between early and recent periods of sex work among young female sex workers in Mombasa, Kenya: A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The sex work context and typology change continuously and influence HIV related risk and vulnerability for young female sex workers (YFSW). We sought to describe changes in the context and typology of sex work between the first (early) and past month (recent) of sex work among YFSW to inform HIV prevention programming for sex workers. METHODS: We used data from a cross-sectional survey (April-November 2015), administered using physical location-based sampling to 408 cis-women, aged 14-24 years, who self-identified as sex workers, in Mombasa, Kenya. We collected self-reported data on the early and recent month of sex work. The analysis focused on changes in a) sex work context and typology (defined by setting where sex workers practice sex work) where YFSW operated, b) primary typology of sex work, and c) HIV programme outcomes among YFSW who changed primary typology, within the early and recent month of sex work. We analysed the data using a) SPSS27.0 and excel; b) bivariate analysis and χ2 test; and c) bivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Overall, the median age of respondents was 20 years and median duration in sex work was 2 years. Higher proportion of respondents in the recent period managed their clients on their own (98.0% vs. 91.2%), had sex with >5 clients per week (39.3% vs.16.5%); were able to meet > 50% of living expenses through sex work income (46.8% vs. 18.8%); and experienced police violence in the past month (16.4% vs. 6.5%). YFSW reported multiple sex work typology in early and recent periods. Overall, 37.2% reported changing their primary typology. A higher proportion among those who used street/ bus stop typology, experienced police violence, or initiated sex work after 19 years of age in the early period reported a change. There was no difference in HIV programme outcomes among YFSW who changed typology vs. those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: The sex work context changes even in a short duration of two years. Hence, understanding these changes in the early period of sex work can allow for development of tailored strategies that are responsive to the specific needs and vulnerabilities of YFSW.

Which Curve Are We Flattening? The Disproportionate Impact of COVID-19 Among Economically Marginalized Communities in Ontario, Canada, Was Unchanged From Wild-Type to Omicron.

Person-level surveillance (N = 14 million) and neighborhood-level income data were used to explore magnitude of inequalities in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths over 5 waves in Ontario, Canada. Despite attempts at equity-informed policies alongside fluctuating levels of public health measures, the magnitude of inequalities in hospitalizations and deaths remained unchanged across waves.

HIV acquisition prior to entry into formal sex work: inference from next-generation viral sequencing.

OBJECTIVE: To infer the timing of HIV acquisition in relation to self-reported events in the sexual life course of adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) who self-identify as female sex workers (FSW) in Mombasa, Kenya. DESIGN: Next-generation viral sequencing of samples of AGYW living with HIV in the Transitions study, a cross-sectional bio-behavioural survey of AGYW aged 14-24 years in Mombasa, Kenya. METHOD: Dried blood spot specimens were collected from study participants ( n  = 37, all FSW). A portion of the HIV pol gene was sequenced using an in-house next-generation sequencing assay for HIV drug resistance mutation genotyping. Estimated time since infection (ETI) was inferred using the HIV EVO web-based tool ( https://hiv.biozentrum.unibas.ch/ETI/ ), and data on self-reported events were obtained from the survey. RESULTS: The median ETI among FSW was 3.4 (interquartile range = 1.7, 6.3) years, with a median ETI of 1.5 years prior to entry into formal sex work. We estimated that 74.1% (95% confidence interval = 53.7-88.9%) of participants living with HIV and who self-identified as FSW likely acquired HIV prior to self-identification as a sex worker. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest a large fraction of prevalent HIV infection among AGYW engaged in sex work stems from acquisition prior to entry into formal sex work. Current HIV prevention programs tailored for sex workers may miss key opportunities for HIV prevention as they are designed to reach women after entry into formal sex work, signaling a need for tailored programs to reach high-risk AGYW earlier on in their sexual life course.

Perinatal outcomes among twin pregnancies with gestational diabetes mellitus: A nine-year retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To compare the outcomes between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) vs. non-GDM twin gestations. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 2,151 twin pregnancies was performed in a tertiary hospital in Foshan, China, 2012-2020. Pregnancy and neonatal outcomes were compared between women with vs. without GDM using 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) and multivariable logistic models. For neonatal outcomes, generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach was used to address the intertwin correlation. Results: Of the 2,151 participants, 472 women (21.9%) were diagnosed with GDM. Women with GDM were older and more likely to be overweight or obese, and more likely have chronic hypertension, assisted pregnancies and dichorionic twins. In the PSM cohort of 942 pregnancies, there was no statistical difference when comparing GDM twin pregnancies and non-GDM in any of the perinatal outcomes, especially in terms of preterm birth (PTB) <37 weeks (P = 0.715), large for gestational age (LGA) (P = 0.521) and neonatal respiratory distress (NRDS) (P = 0.206). In the entire cohort, no significant adjusted ORs for these outcomes were obtained from logistic regression models adjusted for confounders (aOR for PTB < 37 weeks: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.98-1.58; aOR for LGA: 1.26, 95% CI: 0.88-1.82; and aOR for NRDS, 1.05, 95% CI: 0.68-1.64). Conclusion: Twin pregnancies with GDM and adequate prenatal care have comparable perinatal outcomes to those without.

COVID-19 Cases Among Congregate Care Facility Staff by Neighborhood of Residence and Social and Structural Determinants: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Disproportionate risks of COVID-19 in congregate care facilities including long-term care homes, retirement homes, and shelters both affect and are affected by SARS-CoV-2 infections among facility staff. In cities across Canada, there has been a consistent trend of geographic clustering of COVID-19 cases. However, there is limited information on how COVID-19 among facility staff reflects urban neighborhood disparities, particularly when stratified by the social and structural determinants of community-level transmission. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the concentration of cumulative cases by geography and social and structural determinants across 3 mutually exclusive subgroups in the Greater Toronto Area (population: 7.1 million): community, facility staff, and health care workers (HCWs) in other settings. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, observational study using surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases (January 23 to December 13, 2020; prior to vaccination rollout). We derived neighborhood-level social and structural determinants from census data and generated Lorenz curves, Gini coefficients, and the Hoover index to visualize and quantify inequalities in cases. RESULTS: The hardest-hit neighborhoods (comprising 20% of the population) accounted for 53.87% (44,937/83,419) of community cases, 48.59% (2356/4849) of facility staff cases, and 42.34% (1669/3942) of other HCW cases. Compared with other HCWs, cases among facility staff reflected the distribution of community cases more closely. Cases among facility staff reflected greater social and structural inequalities (larger Gini coefficients) than those of other HCWs across all determinants. Facility staff cases were also more likely than community cases to be concentrated in lower-income neighborhoods (Gini 0.24, 95% CI 0.15-0.38 vs 0.14, 95% CI 0.08-0.21) with a higher household density (Gini 0.23, 95% CI 0.17-0.29 vs 0.17, 95% CI 0.12-0.22) and with a greater proportion working in other essential services (Gini 0.29, 95% CI 0.21-0.40 vs 0.22, 95% CI 0.17-0.28). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 cases among facility staff largely reflect neighborhood-level heterogeneity and disparities, even more so than cases among other HCWs. The findings signal the importance of interventions prioritized and tailored to the home geographies of facility staff in addition to workplace measures, including prioritization and reach of vaccination at home (neighborhood level) and at work.

Mortality trends and length of stays among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Ontario and Québec (Canada): a population-based cohort study of the first three epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Epidemics of COVID-19 strained hospital resources. We describe temporal trends in mortality risk and length of stays in hospital and intensive care units (ICUs) among patients with COVID-19 hospitalized through the first three epidemic waves in Canada. METHODS: We used population-based provincial hospitalization data from the epicenters of Canada's epidemics (Ontario and Québec). Adjusted estimates were obtained using marginal standardization of logistic regression models, accounting for patient-level and hospital-level determinants. RESULTS: Using all hospitalizations from Ontario (N = 26,538) and Québec (N = 23,857), we found that unadjusted in-hospital mortality risks peaked at 31% in the first wave and was lowest at the end of the third wave at 6-7%. This general trend remained after adjustments. The odds of in-hospital mortality in the highest patient load quintile were 1.2-fold (95% CI: 1.0-1.4; Ontario) and 1.6-fold (95% CI: 1.3-1.9; Québec) that of the lowest quintile. Mean hospital and ICU length of stays decreased over time but ICU stays were consistently higher in Ontario than Québec. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality risks and length of ICU stays declined over time despite changing patient demographics. Continuous population-based monitoring of patient outcomes in an evolving epidemic is necessary for health system preparedness and response.

Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases by social determinants of health in metropolitan areas in Canada: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with the social determinants of health could help the development of effective mitigation strategies that are responsive to local transmission dynamics. This study aims to quantify social determinants of geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases across 16 census metropolitan areas (hereafter, cities) in 4 Canadian provinces, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. METHODS: We used surveillance data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and census data for social determinants at the level of the dissemination area (DA). We calculated Gini coefficients to determine the overall geographic heterogeneity of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in each city, and calculated Gini covariance coefficients to determine each city's heterogeneity by each social determinant (income, education, housing density and proportions of visible minorities, recent immigrants and essential workers). We visualized heterogeneity using Lorenz (concentration) curves. RESULTS: We observed geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases in cities, as half of the cumulative cases were concentrated in DAs containing 21%-35% of their population, with the greatest geographic heterogeneity in Ontario cities (Gini coefficients 0.32-0.47), followed by British Columbia (0.23-0.36), Manitoba (0.32) and Quebec (0.28-0.37). Cases were disproportionately concentrated in areas with lower income and educational attainment, and in areas with a higher proportion of visible minorities, recent immigrants, high-density housing and essential workers. Although a consistent feature across cities was concentration by the proportion of visible minorities, the magnitude of concentration by social determinant varied across cities. INTERPRETATION: Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed in all of the included cities, but the pattern by social determinants varied. Geographically prioritized allocation of resources and services should be tailored to the local drivers of inequalities in transmission in response to the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

Is there an optimal inter-delivery interval in women who underwent trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC)?

BACKGROUND: Inter-delivery interval (IDI) has been proven to be a factor associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. However, the optimal IDI in trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between IDI and major maternal and neonatal outcomes in women who underwent TOLAC. METHODS: A multicenter, retrospective cohort study including five hospitals was conducted between January 2018 and December 2019 in Foshan, China. This study included 1080 pregnant women with one or two cesarean deliveries who attempted a TOLAC. Data on maternal and neonatal outcomes were collected from the electronic record system. Maternal and neonatal outcomes in different groups of IDI were compared by univariate and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: A short IDI of < 24 months did not show a statistically significant association with uterine rupture in the univariate analysis (P = 0.668). In multivariable analysis, the incidences of postpartum hemorrhage (OR 19.6, 95% CI:4.4-90.9, P < 0.05), preterm birth (OR 5.5, 95% CI:1.5-21.3, P < 0.05), and low birth weight (OR 3.5, 95% CI:1.2-10.3, P < 0.05) were significantly increased in women with an IDI of < 24 months than in those with a normal interval (24-59 months). Infection morbidity (OR 1.8, 95% CI:1.4-7.9, P < 0.05), transfusion (OR 7.4, 95% CI:1.4-40.0, P < 0.05), and neonatal unit admission (OR 2.6, 95% CI:1.4-5.0, P < 0.05) were significantly increased in women with an IDI of 120 months or more than in those with a normal interval. Postpartum hemorrhage (P = 0.062) had a trend similar to that of a significant IDI of 120 months or more. We found no statistically significant difference in maternal and neonatal outcomes between 24-59 months and 60-119 months. CONCLUSIONS: An IDI of less than 24 months or 120 months or more increased the risk of major maternal and neonatal outcomes. We recommend that the optimal interval for women who underwent TOLAC should be 24 to 119 months.

An inter-delivery interval (IDI) that is too short or too long increases the risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. However, the optimal IDI for trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) remains unclear. We performed a multicenter, electronic medical record-based, retrospective cohort study that included 1080 pregnant women who had one or two cesarean deliveries and underwent TOLAC. Data on maternal and neonatal outcomes were collected from the electronic record system. In multivariable analysis, the incidences of postpartum hemorrhage, preterm birth, and low birth weight were significantly increased in women with an IDI of < 24 months than in those with a normal interval (24­59 months). Infections, transfusion, and neonatal unit admission were significantly increased in women with an IDI of ≥ 120 months than in those with a normal interval. In conclusion, we found that an IDI < 24 months or ≥ 120 months increased the risk of major maternal and neonatal outcomes. We recommend that the optimal interval for women who underwent TOLAC should be 24 to 119 months.

Adaptive data-driven age and patch mixing in contact networks with recurrent mobility.

Infectious disease transmission models often stratify populations by age and geographic patches. Contact patterns between age groups and patches are key parameters in such models. Arenas et al. (2020) develop an approach to simulate contact patterns associated with recurrent mobility between patches, such as due to work, school, and other regular travel. Using their approach, mixing between patches is greater than mobility data alone would suggest, because individuals from patches A and B can form contacts if they meet in patch C. We build upon their approach to address three potential gaps that remain, outlined in the bullets below. We describe the steps required to implement our approach in detail, and present step-wise results of an example application to generate contact matrices for SARS-CoV-2 transmission modelling in Ontario, Canada. We also provide methods for deriving the mobility matrix based on GPS mobility data (appendix).•Our approach includes a distribution of contacts by age that is responsive to the underlying age distributions of the mixing populations.•Our approach maintains different age mixing patterns by contact type, such that changes to the numbers of different types of contacts are appropriately reflected in changes to overall age mixing patterns.•Our approach distinguishes between two mixing pools associated with each patch, with possible implications for the overall connectivity of the population: the home pool, in which contacts can only be formed with other individuals residing in the same patch, and the travel pool, in which contacts can be formed with some residents of, and any other visitors to the patch.

Changes in lower uterine segment thickness during different gestational weeks in pregnant women qualified for trial of labor after cesarean section.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the correlation between lower uterine segment thickness (LUST) and gestational weeks (GW) in women who attempted trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC) and to estimate the reference ranges of LUST. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between January 2019 and December 2020 at a tertiary-care center in Foshan, China. A total of 2588 women who attempted TOLAC were included. LUST was measured in different trimesters using transabdominal ultrasound. Histograms were used to review the mean and standard deviations (SD) of LUST at different GW. RESULTS: The mean LUST of the patients were 6.90 ± 2.86, 4.36 ± 1.87, 2.83 ± 0.65, and 2.57 ± 0.51 mm in the first (12.10 ± 1.28 weeks), second (21.79 ± 3.40 weeks), middle third (34.28 ± 2.64 weeks), and late third (38.20 ± 1.00 weeks) trimesters, respectively. An inverse correlation was noted between LUST and uterine rupture in women who underwent a planned ERCD (P < 0.001), but not in women who attempted TOLAC during the late third trimester (P = 0.629). CONCLUSION: LUST is inversely correlated with GW and decreases faster in the first and second trimesters than in the middle and late third trimesters. TOLAC should be approached with caution for pregnant women with a thin myometrium in late third trimester.