Temporal discounting predicts procrastination in the real world.

People procrastinate, but why? One long-standing hypothesis is that temporal discounting drives procrastination: in a task with a distant future reward, the discounted future reward fails to provide sufficient motivation to initiate work early. However, empirical evidence for this hypothesis has been lacking. Here, we used a long-term real-world task and a novel measure of procrastination to examine the association between temporal discounting and real-world procrastination. To measure procrastination, we critically measured the entire time course of the work progress instead of a single endpoint, such as task completion day. This approach allowed us to compute a fine-grained metric of procrastination. We found a positive correlation between individuals' degree of future reward discounting and their level of procrastination, suggesting that temporal discounting is a cognitive mechanism underlying procrastination. We found no evidence of a correlation when we, instead, measured procrastination by task completion day or by survey. This association between temporal discounting and procrastination offers empirical support for targeted interventions that could mitigate procrastination, such as modifying incentive systems to reduce the delay to a reward and lowering discount rates.

Reward prediction error neurons implement an efficient code for reward.

We use efficient coding principles borrowed from sensory neuroscience to derive the optimal neural population to encode a reward distribution. We show that the responses of dopaminergic reward prediction error neurons in mouse and macaque are similar to those of the efficient code in the following ways: the neurons have a broad distribution of midpoints covering the reward distribution; neurons with higher thresholds have higher gains, more convex tuning functions and lower slopes; and their slope is higher when the reward distribution is narrower. Furthermore, we derive learning rules that converge to the efficient code. The learning rule for the position of the neuron on the reward axis closely resembles distributional reinforcement learning. Thus, reward prediction error neuron responses may be optimized to broadcast an efficient reward signal, forming a connection between efficient coding and reinforcement learning, two of the most successful theories in computational neuroscience.

Using games to understand the mind.

Board, card or video games have been played by virtually every individual in the world. Games are popular because they are intuitive and fun. These distinctive qualities of games also make them ideal for studying the mind. By being intuitive, games provide a unique vantage point for understanding the inductive biases that support behaviour in more complex, ecological settings than traditional laboratory experiments. By being fun, games allow researchers to study new questions in cognition such as the meaning of 'play' and intrinsic motivation, while also supporting more extensive and diverse data collection by attracting many more participants. We describe the advantages and drawbacks of using games relative to standard laboratory-based experiments and lay out a set of recommendations on how to gain the most from using games to study cognition. We hope this Perspective will lead to a wider use of games as experimental paradigms, elevating the ecological validity, scale and robustness of research on the mind.

Representation and computation in visual working memory.

The ability to sustain internal representations of the sensory environment beyond immediate perception is a fundamental requirement of cognitive processing. In recent years, debates regarding the capacity and fidelity of the working memory (WM) system have advanced our understanding of the nature of these representations. In particular, there is growing recognition that WM representations are not merely imperfect copies of a perceived object or event. New experimental tools have revealed that observers possess richer information about the uncertainty in their memories and take advantage of environmental regularities to use limited memory resources optimally. Meanwhile, computational models of visuospatial WM formulated at different levels of implementation have converged on common principles relating capacity to variability and uncertainty. Here we review recent research on human WM from a computational perspective, including the neural mechanisms that support it.

Neural mechanisms of resource allocation in working memory.

To mitigate capacity limits of working memory, people allocate resources according to an item's relevance. However, the neural mechanisms supporting such a critical operation remain unknown. Here, we developed computational neuroimaging methods to decode and demix neural responses associated with multiple items in working memory with different priorities. In striate and extrastriate cortex, the gain of neural responses tracked the priority of memoranda. Higher-priority memoranda were decoded with smaller error and lower uncertainty. Moreover, these neural differences predicted behavioral differences in memory prioritization. Remarkably, trialwise variability in the magnitude of delay activity in frontal cortex predicted differences in decoded precision between low and high-priority items in visual cortex. These results suggest a model in which feedback signals broadcast from frontal cortex sculpt the gain of memory representations in visual cortex according to behavioral relevance, thus, identifying a neural mechanism for resource allocation.

Checking gender bias: Parents and mentors perceive less chess potential in girls.

Girls and women are underrepresented in chess. Here, we explored the role of gender bias in this phenomenon. Specifically, we investigated whether parents and mentors (e.g., coaches) show bias against the female youth players in their lives. Parents and mentors (N = 286; 90.6% men) recruited through the U.S. Chess Federation reported their evaluations of and investment in youth players (N = 654). We found evidence of bias on some, but not all, measures. Most strikingly, parents and mentors thought that female youth players' highest potential chess ratings were on average lower than male players', a bias that was exacerbated among parents and mentors who believed that success in chess requires brilliance. In addition, mentors who endorsed (vs. rejected) this belief also reported that female mentees were more likely to drop out of chess due to low ability. These findings provide the first large-scale evidence of bias against youth female players and hold implications for the role of parents and mentors in other domains that, like chess, are culturally associated with intellectual ability and exhibit substantial gender imbalances (e.g., science and technology). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Normalization by orientation-tuned surround in human V1-V3.

An influential account of neuronal responses in primary visual cortex is the normalized energy model. This model is often implemented as a multi-stage computation. The first stage is linear filtering. The second stage is the extraction of contrast energy, whereby a complex cell computes the squared and summed outputs of a pair of the linear filters in quadrature phase. The third stage is normalization, in which a local population of complex cells mutually inhibit one another. Because the population includes cells tuned to a range of orientations and spatial frequencies, the result is that the responses are effectively normalized by the local stimulus contrast. Here, using evidence from human functional MRI, we show that the classical model fails to account for the relative responses to two classes of stimuli: straight, parallel, band-passed contours (gratings), and curved, band-passed contours (snakes). The snakes elicit fMRI responses that are about twice as large as the gratings, yet a traditional divisive normalization model predicts responses that are about the same. Motivated by these observations and others from the literature, we implement a divisive normalization model in which cells matched in orientation tuning ("tuned normalization") preferentially inhibit each other. We first show that this model accounts for differential responses to these two classes of stimuli. We then show that the model successfully generalizes to other band-pass textures, both in V1 and in extrastriate cortex (V2 and V3). We conclude that even in primary visual cortex, complex features of images such as the degree of heterogeneity, can have large effects on neural responses.

Using deep neural networks as a guide for modeling human planning.

When developing models in cognitive science, researchers typically start with their own intuitions about human behavior in a given task and then build in mechanisms that explain additional aspects of the data. This refinement step is often hindered by how difficult it is to distinguish the unpredictable randomness of people's decisions from meaningful deviations between those decisions and the model. One solution for this problem is to compare the model against deep neural networks trained on behavioral data, which can detect almost any pattern given sufficient data. Here, we apply this method to the domain of planning with a heuristic search model for human play in 4-in-a-row, a combinatorial game where participants think multiple steps into the future. Using a data set consisting of 10,874,547 games, we train deep neural networks to predict human moves and find that they accurately do so while capturing meaningful patterns in the data. Thus, deviations between the model and the best network allow us to identify opportunities for model improvement despite starting with a model that has undergone substantial testing in previous work. Based on this analysis, we add three extensions to the model that range from a simple opening bias to specific adjustments regarding endgame planning. Overall, our work demonstrates the advantages of model comparison with a high-performance deep neural network as well as the feasibility of scaling cognitive models to massive data sets for systematically investigating the processes underlying human sequential decision-making.

Studying the neural representations of uncertainty.

The study of the brain's representations of uncertainty is a central topic in neuroscience. Unlike most quantities of which the neural representation is studied, uncertainty is a property of an observer's beliefs about the world, which poses specific methodological challenges. We analyze how the literature on the neural representations of uncertainty addresses those challenges and distinguish between 'code-driven' and 'correlational' approaches. Code-driven approaches make assumptions about the neural code for representing world states and the associated uncertainty. By contrast, correlational approaches search for relationships between uncertainty and neural activity without constraints on the neural representation of the world state that this uncertainty accompanies. To compare these two approaches, we apply several criteria for neural representations: sensitivity, specificity, invariance and functionality. Our analysis reveals that the two approaches lead to different but complementary findings, shaping new research questions and guiding future experiments.

Expertise increases planning depth in human gameplay.

A hallmark of human intelligence is the ability to plan multiple steps into the future1,2. Despite decades of research3-5, it is still debated whether skilled decision-makers plan more steps ahead than novices6-8. Traditionally, the study of expertise in planning has used board games such as chess, but the complexity of these games poses a barrier to quantitative estimates of planning depth. Conversely, common planning tasks in cognitive science often have a lower complexity9,10 and impose a ceiling for the depth to which any player can plan. Here we investigate expertise in a complex board game that offers ample opportunity for skilled players to plan deeply. We use model fitting methods to show that human behaviour can be captured using a computational cognitive model based on heuristic search. To validate this model, we predict human choices, response times and eye movements. We also perform a Turing test and a reconstruction experiment. Using the model, we find robust evidence for increased planning depth with expertise in both laboratory and large-scale mobile data. Experts memorize and reconstruct board features more accurately. Using complex tasks combined with precise behavioural modelling might expand our understanding of human planning and help to bridge the gap with progress in artificial intelligence.

Challenging the fixed-criterion model of perceptual decision-making.

Perceptual decision-making is often conceptualized as the process of comparing an internal decision variable to a categorical boundary or criterion. How the mind sets such a criterion has been studied from at least two perspectives. One idea is that the criterion is a fixed quantity. In work on subjective phenomenology, the notion of a fixed criterion has been proposed to explain a phenomenon called "subjective inflation"-a form of metacognitive mismatch in which observers overestimate the quality of their sensory representation in the periphery or at unattended locations. A contrasting view emerging from studies of perceptual decision-making is that the criterion adjusts to the level sensory uncertainty and is thus sensitive to variations in attention. Here, we mathematically demonstrate that previous empirical findings supporting subjective inflation are consistent with either a fixed or a flexible decision criterion. We further lay out specific task properties that are necessary to make inferences about the flexibility of the criterion: (i) a clear mapping from decision variable space to stimulus feature space and (ii) an incentive for observers to adjust their decision criterion as uncertainty changes. Recent work satisfying these requirements has demonstrated that decision criteria flexibly adjust according to uncertainty. We conclude that the fixed-criterion model of subjective inflation is poorly tenable.

Schema-based predictive eye movements support sequential memory encoding.

When forming a memory of an experience that is unfolding over time, we can use our schematic knowledge about the world (constructed based on many prior episodes) to predict what will transpire. We developed a novel paradigm to study how the development of a complex schema influences predictive processes during perception and impacts sequential memory. Participants learned to play a novel board game ('four-in-a-row') across six training sessions and repeatedly performed a memory test in which they watched and recalled sequences of moves from the game. We found that participants gradually became better at remembering sequences from the game as their schema developed, driven by improved accuracy for schema-consistent moves. Eye tracking revealed that increased predictive eye movements during encoding, which were most prevalent in expert players, were associated with better memory. Our results identify prediction as a mechanism by which schematic knowledge can improve episodic memory.

Point estimate observers: A new class of models for perceptual decision making.

Bayesian optimal inference is often heralded as a principled, general framework for human perception. However, optimal inference requires integration over all possible world states, which quickly becomes intractable in complex real-world settings. Additionally, deviations from optimal inference have been observed in human decisions. A number of approximation methods have previously been suggested, such as sampling methods. In this study, we additionally propose point estimate observers, which evaluate only a single best estimate of the world state per response category. We compare the predicted behavior of these model observers to human decisions in five perceptual categorization tasks. Compared to the Bayesian observer, the point estimate observer loses decisively in one task, ties in two and wins in two tasks. Two sampling observers also improve upon the Bayesian observer, but in a different set of tasks. Thus, none of the existing general observer models appears to fit human perceptual decisions in all situations, but the point estimate observer is competitive with other observer models and may provide another stepping stone for future model development. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

No effect of monetary reward in a visual working memory task.

Previous work has shown that humans distribute their visual working memory (VWM) resources flexibly across items: the higher the importance of an item, the better it is remembered. A related, but much less studied question is whether people also have control over the total amount of VWM resource allocated to a task. Here, we approach this question by testing whether increasing monetary incentives results in better overall VWM performance. In three experiments, subjects performed a delayed-estimation task on the Amazon Turk platform. In the first two experiments, four groups of subjects received a bonus payment based on their performance, with the maximum bonus ranging from $0 to $10 between groups. We found no effect of the amount of bonus on intrinsic motivation or on VWM performance in either experiment. In the third experiment, reward was manipulated on a trial-by-trial basis using a within-subjects design. Again, no evidence was found that VWM performance depended on the magnitude of potential reward. These results suggest that encoding quality in visual working memory is insensitive to monetary reward, which has implications for resource-rational theories of VWM.

Uncertainty-based inference of a common cause for body ownership.

Many studies have investigated the contributions of vision, touch, and proprioception to body ownership, i.e., the multisensory perception of limbs and body parts as our own. However, the computational processes and principles that determine subjectively experienced body ownership remain unclear. To address this issue, we developed a detection-like psychophysics task based on the classic rubber hand illusion paradigm, where participants were asked to report whether the rubber hand felt like their own (the illusion) or not. We manipulated the asynchrony of visual and tactile stimuli delivered to the rubber hand and the hidden real hand under different levels of visual noise. We found that: (1) the probability of the emergence of the rubber hand illusion increased with visual noise and was well predicted by a causal inference model involving the observer computing the probability of the visual and tactile signals coming from a common source; (2) the causal inference model outperformed a non-Bayesian model involving the observer not taking into account sensory uncertainty; (3) by comparing body ownership and visuotactile synchrony detection, we found that the prior probability of inferring a common cause for the two types of multisensory percept was correlated but greater for ownership, which suggests that individual differences in rubber hand illusion can be explained at the computational level as differences in how priors are used in the multisensory integration process. These results imply that the same statistical principles determine the perception of the bodily self and the external world.

Point-estimating observer models for latent cause detection.

The spatial distribution of visual items allows us to infer the presence of latent causes in the world. For instance, a spatial cluster of ants allows us to infer the presence of a common food source. However, optimal inference requires the integration of a computationally intractable number of world states in real world situations. For example, optimal inference about whether a common cause exists based on N spatially distributed visual items requires marginalizing over both the location of the latent cause and 2N possible affiliation patterns (where each item may be affiliated or non-affiliated with the latent cause). How might the brain approximate this inference? We show that subject behaviour deviates qualitatively from Bayes-optimal, in particular showing an unexpected positive effect of N (the number of visual items) on the false-alarm rate. We propose several "point-estimating" observer models that fit subject behaviour better than the Bayesian model. They each avoid a costly computational marginalization over at least one of the variables of the generative model by "committing" to a point estimate of at least one of the two generative model variables. These findings suggest that the brain may implement partially committal variants of Bayesian models when detecting latent causes based on complex real world data.

Joint representation of working memory and uncertainty in human cortex.

Neural representations of visual working memory (VWM) are noisy, and thus, decisions based on VWM are inevitably subject to uncertainty. However, the mechanisms by which the brain simultaneously represents the content and uncertainty of memory remain largely unknown. Here, inspired by the theory of probabilistic population codes, we test the hypothesis that the human brain represents an item maintained in VWM as a probability distribution over stimulus feature space, thereby capturing both its content and uncertainty. We used a neural generative model to decode probability distributions over memorized locations from fMRI activation patterns. We found that the mean of the probability distribution decoded from retinotopic cortical areas predicted memory reports on a trial-by-trial basis. Moreover, in several of the same mid-dorsal stream areas, the spread of the distribution predicted subjective trial-by-trial uncertainty judgments. These results provide evidence that VWM content and uncertainty are jointly represented by probabilistic neural codes.

Uncertainty is maintained and used in working memory.

What are the contents of working memory? In both behavioral and neural computational models, a working memory representation is typically described by a single number, namely, a point estimate of a stimulus. Here, we asked if people also maintain the uncertainty associated with a memory and if people use this uncertainty in subsequent decisions. We collected data in a two-condition orientation change detection task; while both conditions measured whether people used memory uncertainty, only one required maintaining it. For each condition, we compared an optimal Bayesian observer model, in which the observer uses an accurate representation of uncertainty in their decision, to one in which the observer does not. We find that this "Use Uncertainty" model fits better for all participants in both conditions. In the first condition, this result suggests that people use uncertainty optimally in a working memory task when that uncertainty information is available at the time of decision, confirming earlier results. Critically, the results of the second condition suggest that this uncertainty information was maintained in working memory. We test model variants and find that our conclusions do not depend on our assumptions about the observer's encoding process, inference process, or decision rule. Our results provide evidence that people have uncertainty that reflects their memory precision on an item-specific level, maintain this information over a working memory delay, and use it implicitly in a way consistent with an optimal observer. These results challenge existing computational models of working memory to update their frameworks to represent uncertainty.

An uncertainty-based model of the effects of fixation on choice.

When people view a consumable item for a longer amount of time, they choose it more frequently; this also seems to be the direction of causality. The leading model of this effect is a drift-diffusion model with a fixation-based attentional bias. Here, we propose an explicitly Bayesian account for the same data. This account is based on the notion that the brain builds a posterior belief over the value of an item in the same way it would over a sensory variable. As the agent gathers evidence about the item from sensory observations and from retrieved memories, the posterior distribution narrows. We further postulate that the utility of an item is a weighted sum of the posterior mean and the negative posterior standard deviation, with the latter accounting for risk aversion. Fixating for longer can increase or decrease the posterior mean, but will inevitably lower the posterior standard deviation. This model fits the data better than the original attentional drift-diffusion model but worse than a variant with a collapsing bound. We discuss the often overlooked technical challenges in fitting models simultaneously to choice and response time data in the absence of an analytical expression. Our results hopefully contribute to emerging accounts of valuation as an inference process.

Explaining the effects of distractor statistics in visual search.

Visual search, the task of detecting or locating target items among distractor items in a visual scene, is an important function for animals and humans. Different theoretical accounts make differing predictions for the effects of distractor statistics. Here we use a task in which we parametrically vary distractor items, allowing for a simultaneously fine-grained and comprehensive study of distractor statistics. We found effects of target-distractor similarity, distractor variability, and an interaction between the two, although the effect of the interaction on performance differed from the one expected. To explain these findings, we constructed computational process models that make trial-by-trial predictions for behavior based on the stimulus presented. These models, including a Bayesian observer model, provided excellent accounts of both the qualitative and quantitative effects of distractor statistics, as well as of the effect of changing the statistics of the environment (in the form of distractors being drawn from a different distribution). We conclude with a broader discussion of the role of computational process models in the understanding of visual search.