Precision diagnostics in transplanted organs using microarray-assessed gene expression: concepts and technical methods of the Molecular Microscope® Diagnostic System (MMDx).

There is a major unmet need for improved accuracy and precision in the assessment of transplant rejection and tissue injury. Diagnoses relying on histologic and visual assessments demonstrate significant variation between expert observers (as represented by low kappa values) and have limited ability to assess many biological processes that produce little histologic changes, for example, acute injury. Consensus rules and guidelines for histologic diagnosis are useful but may have errors. Risks of over- or under-treatment can be serious: many therapies for transplant rejection or primary diseases are expensive and carry risk for significant adverse effects. Improved diagnostic methods could alleviate healthcare costs by reducing treatment errors, increase treatment efficacy, and serve as useful endpoints for clinical trials of new agents that can improve outcomes. Molecular diagnostic assessments using microarrays combined with machine learning algorithms for interpretation have shown promise for increasing diagnostic precision via probabilistic assessments, recalibrating standard of care diagnostic methods, clarifying ambiguous cases, and identifying potentially missed cases of rejection. This review describes the development and application of the Molecular Microscope® Diagnostic System (MMDx), and discusses the history and reasoning behind many common methods, statistical practices, and computational decisions employed to ensure that MMDx scores are as accurate and precise as possible. MMDx provides insights on disease processes and highly reproducible results from a comparatively small amount of tissue and constitutes a general approach that is useful in many areas of medicine, including kidney, heart, lung, and liver transplants, with the possibility of extrapolating lessons for understanding native organ disease states.

Redefining the molecular rejection states in 3230 heart transplant biopsies: Relationships to parenchymal injury and graft survival.

The first-generation Molecular Microscope (MMDx) system for heart transplant endomyocardial biopsies used expression of rejection-associated transcripts (RATs) to diagnose not only T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) and antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) but also acute injury. However, the ideal system should detect rejection without being influenced by injury, to permit analysis of the relationship between rejection and parenchymal injury. To achieve this, we developed a new rejection classification in an expanded cohort of 3230 biopsies: 1641 from INTERHEART (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02670408), plus 1589 service biopsies added to improve the power of the machine learning algorithms. The new system used 6 rejection classifiers instead of RATs and generated 7 rejection archetypes: No rejection, 48%; Minor, 24%; TCMR1, 2.3%; TCMR2, 2.7%; TCMR/mixed, 2.7%; early-stage ABMR, 3.9%; and fully developed ABMR, 16%. Using rejection classifiers eliminated cross-reactions with acute injury, permitting separate assessment of rejection and injury. TCMR was associated with severe-recent injury and late atrophy-fibrosis and rarely had normal parenchyma. ABMR was better tolerated, seldom producing severe injury, but in later biopsies was often associated with atrophy-fibrosis, indicating long-term risk. Graft survival and left ventricular ejection fraction were reduced not only in hearts with TCMR but also in hearts with severe-recent injury and atrophy-fibrosis, even without rejection.

Comparing Plasma Donor-derived Cell-free DNA to Gene Expression in Endomyocardial Biopsies in the Trifecta-Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Plasma donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) is used to screen for rejection in heart transplants. We launched the Trifecta-Heart study (ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT04707872), an investigator-initiated, prospective trial, to examine the correlations between genome-wide molecular changes in endomyocardial biopsies (EMBs) and plasma dd-cfDNA. The present report analyzes the correlation of plasma dd-cfDNA with gene expression in EMBs from 4 vanguard centers and compared these correlations with those in 604 kidney transplant biopsies in the Trifecta-Kidney study (ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT04239703). METHODS: We analyzed 137 consecutive dd-cfDNA-EMB pairs from 70 patients. Plasma %dd-cfDNA was measured by the Prospera test (Natera Inc), and gene expression in EMBs was assessed by Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System using machine-learning algorithms to interpret rejection and injury states. RESULTS: Top transcripts correlating with dd-cfDNA were related to genes increased in rejection such as interferon gamma-inducible genes (eg, HLA-DMA ) but also with genes induced by injury and expressed in macrophages (eg, SERPINA1 and HMOX1 ). In gene enrichment analysis, the top dd-cfDNA-correlated genes reflected inflammation and rejection pathways. Dd-cfDNA correlations with rejection genes in EMB were similar to those seen in kidney transplant biopsies, with somewhat stronger correlations for TCMR genes in hearts and ABMR genes in kidneys. However, the correlations with parenchymal injury-induced genes and macrophage genes were much stronger in hearts. CONCLUSIONS: In this first analysis of Trifecta-Heart study, dd-cfDNA correlates significantly with molecular rejection but also with injury and macrophage infiltration, reflecting the proinflammatory properties of injured cardiomyocytes. The relationship supports the utility of dd-cfDNA in clinical management of heart transplant recipients.

The Molecular Phenotype of Kidney Transplants: Insights From the MMDx Project.

This review outlines the molecular disease states in kidney transplant biopsies as documented in the development of the Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System (MMDx). These states include T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), recent parenchymal injury, and irreversible atrophy-fibrosis. The MMDx project, initiated through a Genome Canada grant, is a collaboration involving many centers. MMDx uses genome-wide microarrays to measure transcript expression, interprets the results using ensembles of machine learning algorithms, and generates a report. Experimental studies in mouse models and cell lines were extensively used to annotate molecular features and interpret the biopsy results. Over time, MMDx revealed unexpected aspects of the disease states: for example, AMR is usually C4d-negative and often DSA-negative, and subtle "Minor" AMR-like states are frequent. Parenchymal injury correlates with both reduced glomerular filtration rate and increased risk of graft loss. In kidneys with rejection, injury features, not rejection activity, are the strongest predictors of graft survival. Both TCMR and AMR produce injury, but TCMR induces immediate nephron injury and accelerates atrophy-fibrosis, whereas AMR induces microcirculation and glomerular damage that slowly leads to nephron failure and atrophy-fibrosis. Plasma donor-derived cell-free DNA levels correlate strongly with AMR activity, acute kidney injury, and in a complex way with TCMR activity. Thus, the MMDx project has documented the molecular processes that underlie the clinical and histologic states in kidney transplants, and provides a diagnostic tool that can be used to calibrate biomarkers, optimize histology interpretation, and guide clinical trials.

Using Regression Equations to Enhance Interpretation of Histology Lesions of Kidney Transplant Rejection.

BACKGROUND: The Banff system for histologic diagnosis of rejection in kidney transplant biopsies uses guidelines to assess designated features-lesions, donor-specific antibody (DSA), and C4d staining. We explored whether using regression equations to interpret the features as well as current guidelines could establish the relative importance of each feature and improve histologic interpretation. METHODS: We developed logistic regression equations using the designated features to predict antibody-mediated rejection (AMR/mixed) and T-cell-mediated rejection (TCMR/mixed) in 1679 indication biopsies from the INTERCOMEX study ( ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01299168). Equations were trained on molecular diagnoses independent of the designated features. RESULTS: In regression and random forests, the important features predicting molecular rejection were as follows: for AMR, ptc and g, followed by cg; for TCMR, t > i. V-lesions were relatively unimportant. C4d and DSA were also relatively unimportant for predicting AMR: by AUC, the model excluding them (0.853) was nearly as good as the model including them (0.860). Including time posttransplant slightly but significantly improved all models. By AUC, regression predicted molecular AMR and TCMR better than Banff histologic diagnoses. More importantly, in biopsies called "no rejection" by Banff guidelines, regression equations based on histology features identified histologic and molecular rejection-related changes in some biopsies and improved survival predictions. Thus, regression can screen for missed rejection. CONCLUSIONS: Using lesion-based regression equations in addition to Banff histology guidelines defines the relative important of histology features for identifying rejection, allows screening for potential missed diagnoses, and permits early estimates of AMR when C4d and DSA are not available.

Molecular states associated with dysfunction and graft loss in heart transplants.

BACKGROUND: We explored the changes in gene expression correlating with dysfunction and graft failure in endomyocardial biopsies. METHODS: Genome-wide microarrays (19,462 genes) were used to define mRNA changes correlating with dysfunction (left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] ≤ 55) and risk of graft loss within 3 years postbiopsy. LVEF data was available for 1,013 biopsies and survival data for 779 patients (74 losses). Molecular classifiers were built for predicting dysfunction (LVEF ≤ 55) and postbiopsy 3-year survival. RESULTS: Dysfunction is correlated with dedifferentiation-decreased expression of normal heart transcripts, for example, solute carriers, along with increased expression of inflammation genes. Many genes with reduced expression in dysfunction were matrix genes such as fibulin 1 and decorin. Gene ontology (GO) categories suggested matrix remodeling and inflammation, not rejection. Genes associated with the risk of failure postbiopsy overlapped dysfunction genes but also included genes affecting microcirculation, for example, arginase 2, which reduces NO production, and endothelin 1. GO terms also reflected increased glycolysis and response to hypoxia, but decreased VEGF and angiogenesis pathways. T cell-mediated rejection was associated with reduced survival and antibody-mediated rejection with relatively good survival, but the main determinants of survival were features of parenchymal injury. Both dysfunction and graft loss were correlated with increased biopsy expression of BNP (gene NPPB). Survival probability classifiers divided hearts into risk quintiles, with actuarial 3-year postbiopsy survival >95% for the highest versus 50% for the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: Dysfunction in transplanted hearts reflects dedifferentiation, decreased matrix genes, injury, and inflammation. The risk of short-term loss includes these changes but is also associated with microcirculation abnormalities, glycolysis, and response to hypoxia.

Distinct Molecular Processes Mediate Donor-derived Cell-free DNA Release From Kidney Transplants in Different Disease States.

BACKGROUND: Among all biopsies in the Trifecta-Kidney Study ( ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04239703), elevated plasma donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) correlated most strongly with molecular antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) but was also elevated in other states: T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), acute kidney injury (AKI), and some apparently normal biopsies. The present study aimed to define the molecular correlates of plasma dd-cfDNA within specific states. METHODS: Dd-cfDNA was measured by the Prospera test. Molecular rejection and injury states were defined using the Molecular Microscope system. We studied the correlation between dd-cfDNA and the expression of genes, transcript sets, and classifier scores within specific disease states, and compared AMR, TCMR, and AKI to biopsies classified as normal and no injury (NRNI). RESULTS: In all 604 biopsies, dd-cfDNA was elevated in AMR, TCMR, and AKI. Within AMR biopsies, dd-cfDNA correlated with AMR activity and stage. Within AKI, the correlations reflected acute parenchymal injury, including cell cycling. Within biopsies classified as MMDx Normal and archetypal No injury (NRNI), dd-cfDNA still correlated significantly with rejection- and injury-related genes. TCMR activity (eg, the TCMR Prob classifier) correlated with dd-cfDNA, but within TCMR biopsies, top gene correlations were complex and not the top TCMR-selective genes. CONCLUSIONS: In kidney transplants, elevated plasma dd-cfDNA is associated with 3 distinct molecular states in the donor tissue: AMR, recent parenchymal injury (including cell cycling), and TCMR, potentially complicated by parenchymal disruption. Moreover, subtle rejection- and injury-related changes in the donor tissue can contribute to dd-cfDNA elevations in transplants considered to have no rejection or injury.

The Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System: Assessment of Rejection and Injury in Heart Transplant Biopsies.

This review describes the development of the Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System (MMDx) for heart transplant endomyocardial biopsies (EMBs). MMDx-Heart uses microarrays to measure biopsy-based gene expression and ensembles of machine learning algorithms to interpret the results and compare each new biopsy to a large reference set of earlier biopsies. MMDx assesses T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), recent parenchymal injury, and atrophy-fibrosis, continually "learning" from new biopsies. Rejection-associated transcripts mapped in kidney transplants and experimental systems were used to identify TCMR, AMR, and recent injury-induced inflammation. Rejection and injury emerged as gradients of intensity, rather than binary classes. AMR was one-third donor-specific antibody (DSA)-negative, and many EMBs first considered to have no rejection displayed minor AMR-like changes, with increased probability of DSA positivity and subtle inflammation. Rejection-associated transcript-based algorithms now classify EMBs as "Normal," "Minor AMR changes," "AMR," "possible AMR," "TCMR," "possible TCMR," and "recent injury." Additionally, MMDx uses injury-associated transcript sets to assess the degree of parenchymal injury and atrophy-fibrosis in every biopsy and study the effect of rejection on the parenchyma. TCMR directly injures the parenchyma whereas AMR usually induces microcirculation stress but relatively little initial parenchymal damage, although slowly inducing parenchymal atrophy-fibrosis. Function (left ventricular ejection fraction) and short-term risk of failure are strongly determined by parenchymal injury. These discoveries can guide molecular diagnostic applications, either as a central MMDx system or adapted to other platforms. MMDx can also help calibrate noninvasive blood-based biomarkers to avoid unnecessary biopsies and monitor response to therapy.

Relating Molecular T Cell-mediated Rejection Activity in Kidney Transplant Biopsies to Time and to Histologic Tubulitis and Atrophy-fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: We studied the variation in molecular T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) activity in kidney transplant indication biopsies and its relationship with histologic lesions (particularly tubulitis and atrophy-fibrosis) and time posttransplant. METHODS: We examined 175 kidney transplant biopsies with molecular TCMR as defined by archetypal analysis in the INTERCOMEX study ( ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT01299168). TCMR activity was defined by a molecular classifier. RESULTS: Archetypal analysis identified 2 TCMR classes, TCMR1 and TCMR2: TCMR1 had higher TCMR activity and more antibody-mediated rejection ("mixed") activity and arteritis but little hyalinosis, whereas TCMR2 had less TCMR activity but more atrophy-fibrosis. TCMR1 and TCMR2 had similar levels of molecular injury and tubulitis. Both TCMR1 and TCMR2 biopsies were uncommon after 2 y posttransplant and were rare after 10 y, particularly TCMR1. Within late TCMR biopsies, TCMR classifier activity and activity molecules such as IFNG fell progressively with time, but tubulitis and molecular injury were sustained. Atrophy-fibrosis was increased in TCMR biopsies, even in the first year posttransplant, and rose with time posttransplant. TCMR1 and TCMR2 both reduced graft survival, but in random forests, the strongest determinant of survival after biopsies with TCMR was molecular injury, not TCMR activity. CONCLUSIONS: TCMR varies in intensity but is always strongly related to molecular injury and atrophy-fibrosis, which ultimately explains its effect on survival. We hypothesize, based on the reciprocal relationship with hyalinosis, that the TCMR1-TCMR2 gradient reflects calcineurin inhibitor drug underexposure, whereas the time-dependent decline in TCMR activity and frequency after the first year reflects T-cell exhaustion.

Antibody-mediated Rejection Without Detectable Donor-specific Antibody Releases Donor-derived Cell-free DNA: Results From the Trifecta Study.

BACKGROUND: Trifecta (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT04239703) is a prospective trial defining relationships between donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA), donor-specific antibody (DSA), and molecular findings in kidney transplant biopsies. Previous analyses of double results showed dd-cfDNA was strongly associated with rejection-associated molecules in the biopsy. The present study analyzed the triple results in 280 biopsies, focusing on the question of dd-cfDNA levels in DSA-negative antibody-mediated rejection (AMR). METHODS: Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System biopsy testing was performed at Alberta Transplant Applied Genomics Centre, dd-cfDNA testing at Natera, Inc, and central HLA antibody testing at One Lambda Inc. Local DSA and histologic diagnoses were assigned per center standard-of-care. RESULTS: DSA was frequently negative in both molecular (56%) and histologic (51%) AMR. DSA-negative AMR had slightly less molecular AMR activity and histologic peritubular capillaritis than DSA-positive AMR. However, all AMRs-DSA-positive or -negative-showed elevated %dd-cfDNA. There was no association between dd-cfDNA and DSA in biopsies without rejection. In AMR, %dd-cfDNA ≥1.0 was more frequent (75%) than DSA positivity (44%). In logistic regression, dd-cfDNA percent (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85) or quantity (AUC 0.86) predicted molecular AMR better than DSA (AUC 0.66). However, the best predictions incorporated both dd-cfDNA and DSA, plus time posttransplant (AUC 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: DSA-negative AMR has moderately decreased mean molecular and histologic AMR-associated features compared with DSA-positive AMR, though similarly elevated dd-cfDNA levels. In predicting AMR at the time of indication biopsies in this population, dd-cfDNA is superior to DSA, reflecting the prevalence of DSA-negative AMR, but the optimal predictions incorporated both dd-cfDNA and DSA.

Assessing the Relationship Between Molecular Rejection and Parenchymal Injury in Heart Transplant Biopsies.

BACKGROUND: The INTERHEART study (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT02670408) used genome-wide microarrays to detect rejection in endomyocardial biopsies; however, many heart transplants with no rejection have late dysfunction and impaired survival. We used the microarray measurements to develop a molecular classification of parenchymal injury. METHODS: In 1320 endomyocardial biopsies from 645 patients previously studied for rejection-associated transcripts, we measured the expression of 10 injury-induced transcript sets: 5 induced by recent injury; 2 reflecting macrophage infiltration; 2 normal heart transcript sets; and immunoglobulin transcripts, which correlate with time. We used archetypal clustering to assign injury groups. RESULTS: Injury transcript sets correlated with impaired function. Archetypal clustering based on the expression of injury transcript sets assigned each biopsy to 1 of 5 injury groups: 87 Severe-injury, 221 Late-injury, and 3 with lesser degrees of injury, 376 No-injury, 526 Mild-injury, and 110 Moderate-injury. Severe-injury had extensive loss of normal transcripts (dedifferentiation) and increase in macrophage and injury-induced transcripts. Late-injury was characterized by high immunoglobulin transcript expression. In Severe- and Late-injury, function was depressed, and short-term graft failure was increased, even in hearts with no rejection. T cell-mediated rejection almost always had parenchymal injury, and 85% had Severe- or Late-injury. In contrast, early antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) had little injury, but late AMR often had the Late-injury state. CONCLUSIONS: Characterizing heart transplants for their injury state provides new understanding of dysfunction and outcomes and demonstrates the differential impact of T cell-mediated rejection versus AMR on the parenchyma. Slow deterioration from AMR emerges as a major contributor to late dysfunction.

Combining Donor-derived Cell-free DNA Fraction and Quantity to Detect Kidney Transplant Rejection Using Molecular Diagnoses and Histology as Confirmation.

BACKGROUND: Donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) fraction and quantity have both been shown to be associated with allograft rejection. The present study compared the relative predictive power of each of these variables to the combination of the two, and developed an algorithm incorporating both variables to detect active rejection in renal allograft biopsies. METHODS: The first 426 sequential indication biopsy samples collected from the Trifecta study ( ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT04239703) with microarray-derived gene expression and dd-cfDNA results were included. After exclusions to simulate intended clinical use, 367 samples were analyzed. Biopsies were assessed using the molecular microscope diagnostic system and histology (Banff 2019). Logistic regression analysis examined whether combining dd-cfDNA fraction and quantity adds predictive value to either alone. The first 149 sequential samples were used to develop a two-threshold algorithm and the next 218 to validate the algorithm. RESULTS: In regression, the combination of dd-cfDNA fraction and quantity was found to be significantly more predictive than either variable alone ( P = 0.009 and P < 0.0001). In the test set, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the two-variable system was 0.88, and performance of the two-threshold algorithm showed a sensitivity of 83.1% and specificity of 81.0% for molecular diagnoses and a sensitivity of 73.5% and specificity of 80.8% for histology diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective, biopsy-matched, multisite dd-cfDNA study in kidney transplant patients found that the combination of dd-cfDNA fraction and quantity was more powerful than either dd-cfDNA fraction or quantity alone and validated a novel two-threshold algorithm incorporating both variables.

Molecular diagnosis of ABMR with or without donor-specific antibody in kidney transplant biopsies: Differences in timing and intensity but similar mechanisms and outcomes.

We studied the clinical, histologic, and molecular features distinguishing DSA-negative from DSA-positive molecularly defined antibody-mediated rejection (mABMR). We analyzed mABMR biopsies with available DSA assessments from the INTERCOMEX study: 148 DSA-negative versus 248 DSA-positive, compared with 864 no rejection (excluding TCMR and Mixed). DSA-positivity varied with mABMR stage: early-stage (EABMR) 56%; fully developed (FABMR) 70%; and late-stage (LABMR) 58%. DSA-negative patients with mABMR were usually sensitized, 60% being HLA antibody-positive. Compared with DSA-positive mABMR, DSA-negative mABMR was more often C4d-negative; earlier by 1.5 years (average 2.4 vs. 3.9 years); and had lower ABMR activity and earlier stage in molecular and histology features. However, the top ABMR-associated transcripts were identical in DSA-negative versus DSA-positive mABMR, for example, NK-associated (e.g., KLRD1 and GZMB) and IFNG-inducible (e.g., PLA1A). Genome-wide class comparison between DSA-negative and DSA-positive mABMR showed no significant differences in transcript expression except those related to lower intensity and earlier time of DSA-negative ABMR. Three-year graft loss in DSA-negative mABMR was the same as DSA-positive mABMR, even after adjusting for ABMR stage. Thus, compared with DSA-positive mABMR, DSA-negative mABMR is on average earlier, less active, and more often C4d-negative but has similar graft loss, and genome-wide analysis suggests that it involves the same mechanisms. SUMMARY SENTENCE: In 398 kidney transplant biopsies with molecular antibody-mediated rejection, the 150 DSA-negative cases are earlier, less intense, and mostly C4d-negative, but use identical molecular mechanisms and have the same risk of graft loss as the 248 DSA-positive cases.

Archetypal Analysis of Injury in Kidney Transplant Biopsies Identifies Two Classes of Early AKI.

All transplanted kidneys are subjected to some degree of injury as a result of the donation-implantation process and various post-transplant stresses such as rejection. Because transplants are frequently biopsied, they present an opportunity to explore the full spectrum of kidney response-to-wounding from all causes. Defining parenchymal damage in transplanted organs is important for clinical management because it determines function and survival. In this study, we classified the scenarios associated with parenchymal injury in genome-wide microarray results from 1,526 kidney transplant indication biopsies collected during the INTERCOMEX study. We defined injury groups by using archetypal analysis (AA) of scores for gene sets and classifiers previously identified in various injury states. Six groups and their characteristics were defined in this population: No injury, minor injury, two classes of acute kidney injury ("AKI," AKI1, and AKI2), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and CKD combined with AKI. We compared the two classes of AKI, namely, AKI1 and AKI2. AKI1 had a poor function and increased parenchymal dedifferentiation but minimal response-to-injury and inflammation, instead having increased expression of PARD3, a gene previously characterized as being related to epithelial polarity and adherens junctions. In contrast, AKI2 had a poor function and increased response-to-injury, significant inflammation, and increased macrophage activity. In random forest analysis, the most important predictors of function (estimated glomerular filtration rate) and graft loss were injury-based molecular scores, not rejection scores. AKI1 and AKI2 differed in 3-year graft survival, with better survival in the AKI2 group. Thus, injury archetype analysis of injury-induced gene expression shows new heterogeneity in kidney response-to-wounding, revealing AKI1, a class of early transplants with a poor function but minimal inflammation or response to injury, a deviant response characterized as PC3, and an increased risk of failure. Given the relationship between parenchymal injury and kidney survival, further characterization of the injury phenotypes in kidney transplants will be important for an improved understanding that could have implications for understanding native kidney diseases (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT01299168).

The Trifecta Study: Comparing Plasma Levels of Donor-derived Cell-Free DNA with the Molecular Phenotype of Kidney Transplant Biopsies.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the donor-derived cell-free DNA fraction (dd-cfDNA[%]) in plasma in kidney transplant recipients at time of indication biopsy and gene expression in the biopsied allograft has not been defined. METHODS: In the prospective, multicenter Trifecta study, we collected tissue from 300 biopsies from 289 kidney transplant recipients to compare genome-wide gene expression in biopsies with dd-cfDNA(%) in corresponding plasma samples drawn just before biopsy. Rejection was assessed with the microarray-based Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System using automatically assigned rejection archetypes and molecular report sign-outs, and histology assessments that followed Banff guidelines. RESULTS: The median time of biopsy post-transplantation was 455 days (5 days to 32 years), with a case mix similar to that of previous studies: 180 (60%) no rejection, 89 (30%) antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR), and 31 (10%) T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) and mixed. In genome-wide mRNA measurements, all 20 top probe sets correlating with dd-cfDNA(%) were previously annotated for association with ABMR and all types of rejection, either natural killer (NK) cell-expressed (e.g., GNLY, CCL4, TRDC, and S1PR5) or IFN-γ-inducible (e.g., PLA1A, IDO1, CXCL11, and WARS). Among gene set and classifier scores, dd-cfDNA(%) correlated very strongly with ABMR and all types of rejection, reasonably strongly with active TCMR, and weakly with inactive TCMR, kidney injury, and atrophy fibrosis. Active ABMR, mixed, and active TCMR had the highest dd-cfDNA(%), whereas dd-cfDNA(%) was lower in late-stage ABMR and less-active TCMR. By multivariate random forests and logistic regression, molecular rejection variables predicted dd-cfDNA(%) better than histologic variables. CONCLUSIONS: The dd-cfDNA(%) at time of indication biopsy strongly correlates with active molecular rejection and has the potential to reduce unnecessary biopsies. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04239703.

The Biology and Molecular Basis of Organ Transplant Rejection.

Allograft rejection is defined as tissue injury in a transplanted allogeneic organ produced by the effector mechanisms of the adaptive alloimmune response. Effector T lymphocytes and IgG alloantibodies cause two different types of rejection that can occur either individually or simultaneously: T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) and antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR). In TCMR, cognate effector T cells infiltrate the graft and orchestrate an interstitial inflammatory response in the kidney interstitium in which effector T cells engage antigen-presenting myeloid cells, activating the T cells, antigen-presenting cells, and macrophages. The result is intense expression of IFNG and IFNG-induced molecules, expression of effector T cell molecules and macrophage molecules and checkpoints, and deterioration of parenchymal function. The diagnostic lesions of TCMR follow, i.e. interstitial inflammation, parenchymal deterioration, and intimal arteritis. In ABMR, HLA IgG alloantibodies produced by plasma cells bind to the donor antigens on graft microcirculation, leading to complement activation, margination, and activation of NK cells and neutrophils and monocytes, and endothelial injury, sometimes with intimal arteritis. TCMR becomes infrequent after 5-10 years post-transplant, probably reflecting adaptive mechanisms such as checkpoints, but ABMR can present even decades post-transplant. Some rejection is triggered by inadequate immunosuppression and non-adherence, challenging the clinician to target effective immunosuppression even decades post-transplant.

Many heart transplant biopsies currently diagnosed as no rejection have mild molecular antibody-mediated rejection-related changes.

BACKGROUND: The Molecular Microscope (MMDx) system classifies heart transplant endomyocardial biopsies as No-rejection (NR), Early-injury, T cell-mediated (TCMR), antibody-mediated (ABMR), mixed, and possible rejection (possible TCMR, possible ABMR). Rejection-like gene expression patterns in NR biopsies have not been described. We extended the MMDx methodology, using a larger data set, to define a new "Minor" category characterized by low-level inflammation in non-rejecting biopsies. METHODS: Using MMDx criteria from a previous study, molecular rejection was assessed in 1,320 biopsies (645 patients) using microarray expression of rejection-associated transcripts (RATs). Of these biopsies, 819 were NR. A new archetypal analysis model in the 1,320 data set split the NRs into NR-Normal (N = 462) and NR-Minor (N = 359). RESULTS: Compared to NR-Normal, NR-Minor were more often histologic TCMR1R, with a higher prevalence of donor-specific antibody (DSA). DSA positivity increased in a gradient: NR-Normal 24%; NR-Minor 34%; possible ABMR 42%; ABMR 66%. The top 20 transcripts distinguishing NR-Minor from NR-Normal were all ABMR-related and/or IFNG-inducible, and also exhibited a gradient of increasing expression from NR-Normal through ABMR. In random forest analysis, TCMR and Early-injury were associated with reduced LVEF and increased graft loss, but NR-Minor and ABMR scores were not. Surprisingly, hearts with MMDx ABMR showed comparatively little graft loss. CONCLUSIONS: Many heart transplants currently diagnosed as NR by histologic or molecular assessment have minor increases in ABMR-related and IFNG-inducible transcripts, associated with DSA positivity and mild histologic inflammation. These results suggest that low-level ABMR-related molecular stress may be operating in many more hearts than previously estimated. (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT02670408).