RESUMEN
Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.
RESUMEN
One of the simplest viable models for dark matter is an additional neutral scalar, stabilised by a Z 2 symmetry. Using the GAMBIT package and combining results from four independent samplers, we present Bayesian and frequentist global fits of this model. We vary the singlet mass and coupling along with 13 nuisance parameters, including nuclear uncertainties relevant for direct detection, the local dark matter density, and selected quark masses and couplings. We include the dark matter relic density measured by Planck, direct searches with LUX, PandaX, SuperCDMS and XENON100, limits on invisible Higgs decays from the Large Hadron Collider, searches for high-energy neutrinos from dark matter annihilation in the Sun with IceCube, and searches for gamma rays from annihilation in dwarf galaxies with the Fermi-LAT. Viable solutions remain at couplings of order unity, for singlet masses between the Higgs mass and about 300 GeV, and at masses above â¼ 1 TeV. Only in the latter case can the scalar singlet constitute all of dark matter. Frequentist analysis shows that the low-mass resonance region, where the singlet is about half the mass of the Higgs, can also account for all of dark matter, and remains viable. However, Bayesian considerations show this region to be rather fine-tuned.
RESUMEN
We explore the prospects for observing CP violation in the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) with six CP-violating parameters, three gaugino mass phases and three phases in trilinear soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters, using the CPsuperH code combined with a geometric approach to maximise CP-violating observables subject to the experimental upper bounds on electric dipole moments. We also implement CP-conserving constraints from Higgs physics, flavour physics and the upper limits on the cosmological dark matter density and spin-independent scattering. We study possible values of observables within the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), the non-universal Higgs model (NUHM), the CPX scenario and a variant of the phenomenological MSSM (pMSSM). We find values of the CP-violating asymmetry [Formula: see text] in [Formula: see text] decay that may be as large as 3 %, so future measurements of [Formula: see text] may provide independent information about CP violation in the MSSM. We find that CP-violating MSSM contributions to the [Formula: see text] meson mass mixing term [Formula: see text] are in general below the present upper limit, which is dominated by theoretical uncertainties. If these could be reduced, [Formula: see text] could also provide an interesting and complementary constraint on the six CP-violating MSSM phases, enabling them all to be determined experimentally, in principle. We also find that CP violation in the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] couplings can be quite large, and so may offer interesting prospects for future [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] colliders.